Albert Barlett Preview

The Albert Barlett is the newest of the novice hurdles to take place at the Cheltenham Festival. Although seen by many as the poor man's Neptune, it has already produced some top class graduates from only a handful of runnings. These include Bobs Worth, Weapons Amnesty and Wichita Lineman.

When looking at this from an ante post perspective the problem is finding a horse who will actually run as many horses are also entered in the Neptune too. Looking at this year's renewal, those at the top of market (Fingal Bay and Boston Bob) also head the betting for the Neptune, so there is a good chance they could both miss this event. In this case, it looks better to look further down the list for something that is more likely to run.

Although there has only been seven renewals there is a strong trend emerging, course form. Six of the seven winners had run at least once at Cheltenham, with five of them at least twice.

The key trials have been (with the respective odds for those entered in the Albert Bartlett at the moment):

The Hyde Novice's Hurdle (produced four winners)

1st - Fingal Bay (8/1)
2nd - Barbatos
3rd - Polisky
4th - Well Regarded

The Bristol Novice's Hurdle (produced two winners as well as last year's runner up, Mossley)

1st - Deireadh Re (33/1)
2nd - Rev It Up (50/1)
3rd - American Spin (100/1)
Fell - Sea of Thunder (16/1)

The Classic Novice's Hurdle (produced two winners)

1st - Batonnier
2nd - Broadbackbob
3rd - Secret Edge
4th - Hard to Swallow (50/1)

As Fingal Bay couldn't be backed with any confidence until you know his target, there are two horses from this who stand out massively to me.

The first is SEA OF THUNDER who is available at 16/1 with both Coral and Ladbrokes. It is his only festival entry and given his run over the course and distance in December, he is a certain runner (injury permitting).

He is a half brother to Macs Joy but looking at his performances so far he is a totally different kind of horse. Kept at two miles for his first six starts (perhaps because of his breeding) he showed a solid if not spectacular level of form including a maiden hurdle win in Ireland.

Stepped up to three miles in December he looked a totally different horse. After travelling well the whole  way, he quickened impressively under little pressure and was six lengths and going further clear when coming down at the last. The form has been franked with the first and second, Deireadh Re and Rev It Up taking handicaps next time out and being rated 139 and 135 respectively now. This all points to Sea of Thunder putting up a performance in the high 140s that day.

He has since come fifth in a very good race at Leopardstown over a trip too short and ground far too heavy, so I am inclined to still think he is a lot better than that. Also Gigginstown Stud have an envious record in the staying novice races at the Festival and his whole season is likely to be being geared towards this one day in March. His performance in December, would have been good enough to at least place in all of the renewals of this race and consequently 16/1 is way too big.

The second selection I like at the prices is the only horse who reaches the stat of having run at the course at least twice, HARD TO SWALLOW. Having won a point to point in Ireland by 20l he was sent to the Martin Keighley and duly took his bumper by an easy six lengths.

First time out over hurdles he was disappointing when chasing home Mart Lane, but looking at his trainer's record, his horses always come on massively for their first run, so I am happy to forgive that run.

Since then he has competed in three very good races. In the first of these he was a few lengths behind Fingal Bay and staying on when coming down two out. Before then finishing fourth in two very good races at Cheltenham.

Although his form is nothing special so far there are reasons to think why he could improve massively on what he has shown. Firstly the trip. In both of his Cheltenham runs over 21f he has been staying on eye catchingly up the hill after being outpaced, looking as if he would appreciate a step up in trip. He was a 3 mile point to point winner in Ireland as a 4 year old, so he obviously has a lot of stamina and also interestingly connections have not even bothered to enter him in the Neptune. So clearly they think he will better over this trip too.

It is also seems clear that he needs good ground to be seen at his best. He has been kept away from soft ground so far and he was rerouted to Cheltenham on New Years day instead of taking part in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle the day before after the ground turned soft. This being the case his run on trials' day deserves extra credit, as the times that day all suggested the ground was 'soft' and not the official 'good to soft'. The Jockey also kept him noticeably wide for a lot of the race that day, perhaps searching for better ground. If he can run an RPR of 137 over a trip short of his best and on ground he doesn't like, he surely can put up a performance in at least the mid 140s in ideal conditions (which he should get come March).

The fact he has only been kept in the highest company and was being aimed at a Grade 1 until weather intervened shows he is clearly well thought of and in a race that could cut up 50/1 seems very generous from an each way perspective.

1pt E/W Sea of Thunder 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt E/W Hard to Swallow 50/1 (Coral)