Hype job this thing.

I was on it at big prices ew last year in the Supreme. Cruising then hit the hill. This was after demolition jobs against rubbish beforehand.

Same thing has happened this year. It pulls too hard for an Arkle and will be better round the likes of Aintree and Kempton.

Think there are better 11-8 shots to be had personally. If you are on at 7/8-1 then yeah its a good bet but 11-8? nah not for me

Indeed. It was a demolition job on Friday, but not against rubbish.

I doubt anybody knows anything Budd unless you are very close indeed

It is often hard to put into perspective a set of performances, especially when they never come off the bridle and it may be easy to attached a 'world beater' tab.

So lets look at it runs of chases:-

9th Dec - Easy novice win at Doncaster, the only serious opponent (Easterby) horse was clearly under instruction not to get to close.  Romped home.  Looking back it seems strange that given this horse is apparantly the best BG has ridden and he loves  this horse.  They felt it ok for David Bass to take the ride, whilst BG was at Chelenham.  I would have thought they could have got a midweek novice to enable Barry to ride.

27th Dec - Two horse race and another easy win.  But PC heavily eased at the end certainly flattered the distances.  Also early PC mistake didnt help.  McCain reports something amiss after the race.  I dont like excuses from trainers but was that really the running of a Champion Hurdle second?  Inconclusive for me.

17th Feb - Visually very impressive and beat some decent handicap performers with distain.  However, was getting weight from likes of French Opera who have always been beaten when taking on top class opposition.  Indeed beaten considerably further by likes of Mastermided and Sizing Europe off levels.  Always likeliest winner before race but did it in good style.

Generally points, rewatched its novice defeats and both times looked cruising and emptied quickly when challenged.  Very buzzy, and occasion of Cheltenham, may not help. 

Summary, very exciting novice, albeit not as good at the top current two milers (at this stage).  However,it is not taking on the champion chase contenders and therefore worthy favourite for the Arkle.  5/4 is very short though with 'slight' doubts over its previous wins, it novice hurdle performances and against strong opposition (AF, CC, PC, Men)

Have people even looked through that race and seen the 3rd home, Altan Khan, who was beat 59 lengths, WON his next race and was put up a further 8lb.

Just opinions Sintonian, but Lightening Rod has got previous.  It you dont beleive me watch his Sedgefield run on 6th Mar, when it clearly wasnt meant to win.   Mick knows the time of day and had the horses future in mind when against SS.

Opinion based on what though? Surely there must be somekind of evidence to back it up rather than an assumption the runner-up was not trying. This kind of thing gets bandied about all the time.

can't see the debut run now has any relevance following bolting up in open Graded company making 150 horses look positively slooooowwwww

I cannot say that sintonian, I just think in the circumstances of the race, the eventual result was good for all concerned.

Agree with you judorick on the likey (ir)relevance of that race not.

I am a big fan of the horse and hope it wins the Arkle and goes on to the a 2 mile champion (I think we need one!).  Largely playing devils advocate here to see if there are any ****s in his armour.  And you may read interpret some of the above to say as there are.   The bookmakers agree, remember they are quoting 5/4 not 1/4.

yes you can make up whatever scenario you like but it's best to keep it simple and not guess - blistering time, jumped like a cat, put race to bed in two strides, could have won by another 10 lengths and never came off the bridle in open company against experienced 2 mile chasers in a graded race

but you go ahead and doubt the performance

looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck... probably a duck

Agree judo, in a stronger race round Cheltenham it might run like a duck.

VERY simple IMVHO -

IF it gets there in the same form as last Saturday and IF it stands up .. it wins going away

IT won with its head in its chest and if it can jump the Cheltenham fences then NOTHING I've seen in the novices either side of the irish Sea has an engine like that

Can understand people taking another position on the race but I really don't get some of the people knocking this horse. I think if you have half a brain you realise that he is the best so far of a very good bunch of novice chasers. That's not to say he will definitely be winning the Arkle but he has asked every question so far easily. To say he's just demolishing rubbish horses is laughable. It seems every race this horse races in there's some excuse or another for the other horses. It reminds me very much of how people kept saying Frankel was beating nothing & the horses he faced were getting injured or not running there races. It's laughable. As has been said if you are so confident he's all hype get pressing the lay button.

Many people have said Sprinter was flattered to have won so far at Kempton. Please would these people watch the race again, and then let me know if they have changed their mind?

The simple fact that Peddlers was niggled along for half a mile, whereas Sprinter wasn't indicates the winning margin could have been greater.

I think most people get the impression from just after the second last when Maguire looks behind and stops riding Peddlers. However if you look at it, just after Barry see's this and eases Sprinter. They were both eased down from before the last to the line yet Sprinter went further clear.

it is fairly easy to rate the bare form though through I'm So Lucky

the bare form equates easily to 163 on the most conservative estimation (gave 5lbs and a 9 length beating)

and when you factor in the complete ease of the victory, it's any bodies guess how far he could have won if asked to run at full speed from the last jump to the line, you can see why people are so excited. All that on his third start over fences...

can't remember off the top of my head any other novice that produced such performances so early

as I said before, my estimation for his peak level of performance based on the newbury run is 175 and I have been using the same method for a long time and have total faith in my rating

it's often the case that people will knock a horses chance just because it is a short price which is fair enough

it's just in this case there really is little depth to the opposition which makes it hard to understand those crabbing his chance

well that is if you believe in rating performances and comparing them to a typical race winner (SS has already produced form rated much higher than a typical Arkle winner)

yes well when you use ratings, which I know you don't, you have to follow through and trust them. I have been using mine for 20 plus years and i know when to trust them and when to have a query

If you are sceptical about ratings then that basically gives you licence to pick and choose which performances you are going to pay attention to and which you are going to ignore. In that case, punting becomes arbitary.

I punt on ratings, trends and in running comments. The comment "won on bridle" combined with the visual confirmation that the horse had plenty in the locker tells me I can upgrade the rating comfortably because I have been doing this reliably for many years and therefore have faith in the method. It produces very accurate predictions and in fact is how I confidently stated after this horse made his debut that he would certainly reach 165 over fences

MM,
Al Ferof beat Im So Lucky 14 lengths i belive at levels,SS beat him about half that with 5lb more.That form is not different level.

I will say though that SS did it a lot easier,and i can understand people saying SS is the better horse based on the visual impression of those 2 races,but the fact remains that i have doubts he will be the same at Cheltenham,im allowed to!!
The reason ive backed AF is because i formed the opinion that hes what i call a proper Cheltenham horse totally suited to the place,and i would back him in whatever race he runs in.
If SS or PC or any other horse proves better than AF on the day,so be it,but nothing ive seen this season has changed my mind re Al Ferof.

don't know why people refer to form from the past

clearly the horse has improved bundles since going chasing and all that hurdles stuff is pretty near irrelevant imo

once you have set a new personal best then that is the benchmark, not what you did a year before the new standard was achieved