Cheltenham Festival
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Sprinter Sacre can't win the Arkle...
Sprinter Sacre can't win the Arkle...
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Replies: 388
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I like the US cop maneuver idea Reaseheath. I don't think it would work though, he'd just jump over them.
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He is the most likely winner from what we have seen this season over fences but I wouldn't be playing at 6/4, or shorter if there are defections. They are not machines and all sorts can go wrong before and during the race.
Anyway, as I said on the other thread we only have just over 3 weeks to find out. Whatever wins is going to have to produce a very high class performance and probably the best for at least a decade. |
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a few may have missed the boat (me included ) but i have 3 very good chances on side al fer.cue card and menorah ,2 of these are proven battlers who have found extr when in a head to head at previous festivals and theres another proven horse with festival form who also gets up the hill who was 2nd in a champion hurdle for sprinter sacre to cope with ,he may well be up to it but i have seen a lot of horses win on the bridal and they can look unbeatable but when it comes to the crunch they dont always find whats expected .
pureley hypothitical i know but picture the scenario ? sprinter coming to the last 8-10 lengths clear and pounding up the hill unchallenged ,very nice ! but picture this scenario sprinter sacre coming to the last neck and neck with menorah, peddlers half a length away and al ferof a neck back in 4th ..............and now the little matter of the hill! will the 5/4 /even money look so good ,...............squeaky bum time! ................ |
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Menorah won't be sighted
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Cue Card wont jump round
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Foyleswar
What has Menorah achieved over fences to make you think he has a winning chance? |
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sintonian
19 Feb 12 12:51 Completley agree with Festival Fanatic here. Think those who have missed the boat are coming up with anything to say. Cant speak for others,but as far as im concerned thats rubbish. |
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Theirs a lot of experts on here writing horses off with no chance,oh hang on,actually i believe they are SS backers.
Dreadful stuff going on,come on lads get a grip,this is a 2m novice chase with inexperienced horses,it aint cut and dried. |
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im just putting things into perspective some people on here seem to think that sprinter sacre has won the arkle already and didnt say menorah was going to win it, just saying this may not be the cakewalk it seems! i was saying he is proven at the course and in a battle ,as is alferof, cue card is classy and cannot be written off but he may be a little suspect when the chips are down, but peddlers was only beaten half a length by a good champion hurdle winner and although i have not backed him he has drifted to a backable price now .
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judo how can you say he wont be sighted cant he improve for a fast pace ! what if he jumps perfectly well and is on song, he was only beat a handfull of lengths in a champion hurdle .i cant see how you can say he wont be sighted !
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you obviously don't know how much I think that horse has been over rated
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You are quiet right Foyles,he could win,not for me but its possible.
Its also possible that SS,PC,CC and AF could win,probably one or 2 others although personally i have it down to those 4. |
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of course he has some sort of chance but if all the principals line up he would be 50/1 in my book. How is he supposed to beat Peddlars who beat him 8 lengths? Let alone the others
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judo-if ur offereing 50's on menorah, ne chance of 100ew?
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win only
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The Arkle is such a unique race no race to they go such a mental clip right from the start. If Sprinter Sacre misses one they everything is up in the air.
Personally I never get involved in the Arkle financially. its really really tough to find the winner IMHO. |
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Sprinter Sacre'll do an Anaglogs Daughter. Easy money
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I think Cue Card's jumping is nowhere near upto it
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buddeliea Date Joined: 19 Mar 04
Add contact | Send message When: 19 Feb 12 14:30 Joined: Date Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 5,676 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog sintonian 19 Feb 12 12:51 Completley agree with Festival Fanatic here. Think those who have missed the boat are coming up with anything to say. Cant speak for others,but as far as im concerned thats rubbish. er no it's not im afraid Budde. It was you who said Sacres run in the Supreme was a failure. |
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Budd - as you know I am a huge fan of th horse (as we all are) and have backed him AP, but I agree when you say this is a 2m novice chase with inexperienced horses, it aint cut and dried.
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i have never said menorah will win, i have him on my side but my biggest winner is al ferof atn the moment,and i know he gets up the hill and can battle ! dont think sprinter sacre will get a soft lead and will have it put up to him all the way round ! lets see how he reacts !if he gets buzzed up and doesnt settle ! will he get up the hill ?
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Mooono
18 Feb 12 02:15 Wont make it up the hill This will fly up the Chelt hill quicker than Jack & Jill on the magic pill Barry will be 5 clear turning for home, the mean lean sprinter sacre machine, nodding his head at the applauding crowd..Great scenes.. buddeliea 18 Feb 12 06:43 we dont know though do we,hes only ran once off a flat track and failed As you can clearly see Sint,that comment was in answer to Moonos comments above re SS flying up the hill,which he failed to do,as i said. |
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Anyone who thinks SS won't win actually laid him and if so for how much?
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havent laid him yet but if he gets a bit shorter and nearer the race i will, cant be scared of a near even money shot ! aint gonna lose a lot if he does win !
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Ah, I think I'd lay him at odds on. You don't want to lay him at 5/4 but you think something else will win the race? Doesn't tally really.
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never layed a horse in my life,doubt i ever will.Just an old fashioned backer.
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I thought that was the whole point of Betfair Budd!
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yeh,people lay and people back,i back.
i use Betfair for the bigger prices early doors mainly. |
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Budde you said he raced once off a flat track and failed. Sorry but I think this is a ridiculous comment for a variety of reasons that I wont either bother to put forwards.
All I know is if you owned the horse and someone walked up to you in the enclosure after the Supreme and said to you your horse had just failed, you would almost certainly tell them to do one. |
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Sorry Budd, comment not aimed at you. Has anyone who posts on here actually laid SS and for how much? Not a difficult question. If they haven't, then the anti comments are piss and wind and they actually think SS will win.
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^ I have backed CC against him as I had thought he was bad value given the depth of the race, but after last week I wouldn't dare touch that lay button even though he's even shorter now.
Would personally be surprised if many people layed this one, even if they think he's too short. That's the thing with laying horses in my opinion - it takes a different mindset. I back horses that I feel are value (and this often means backing horses I don't think will win, but whose chance I feel is better than the odds offered). I still find it hard to apply the reverse (i.e. For me to lay a horse I would need it to be poor value and feel it won't win. Even when I thought Sprinter was too short a few weeks ago I still thought he was the likeliest winner and therefore would not have had the balls to lay him). |
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Sint,
i explained that in response to the previous post,i was saying he failed to fly up the hill not failed in the Supreme.Obviously it was not clear enough. Maybe you do not believe me,no worries,i can live with that. Lets move on,it aint that important. |
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3rd in the supreme as a immature horse came back has been pretty much foot perfect and a worthy fav,is it value? possibly not,will it stay up the hill?probably,will it win,yes,will I play at 5/4 or evens NO,if your not holding AP tickets just enjoy the race oh and have it single in the placepot !
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One things for sure chelters,we will enjoy the race,its potentailly a race we will be talking about for a very long time.
The chance of possibly seeing the next superstar of NH racing certainly adds to it,whether hes on your side or not,plus the high ratings of other horses in the race. Cant wait!! |
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we've been talking about nothing else since what, November?
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i feel that due to the lack of petential competition next year we wont get to see how good SS actually is.
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The only things that can stop SS winning the Arkle IMO are:
1. Jumping too extravagantly 2. Peddlers being as good as I still think he could be |
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Lots of other things thedemps:-
Not getting there at all Interrupted preparation during the last 3 weeks Menorah getting in the way Cue Card bringing him down BG not being able to ride Most likely winner for me but 5/4 AP is a joke. |
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chelters16
19 Feb 12 18:45 Joined: 02 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 90 | Blogger: chelters16's blog 3rd in the supreme as a immature horse came back has been pretty much foot perfect and a worthy fav,is it value? possibly not,will it stay up the hill?probably,will it win,yes,will I play at 5/4 or evens NO,if your not holding AP tickets just enjoy the race oh and have it single in the placepot ! Sums my thoughts up perfectly. I wouldn't be losing sleep about SS getting up the hill based just on its run in the Supreme. With no interest in the race yet, the placepot will probably be my only bet. However, I think it's probably the race i'm most looking forward to watching. |
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Sprinter Sacre was undoubtedly very visually impressive at Newbury but I can honestly see Peddlers Cross outstaying him up the hill. Maybe my judgement has been clouded by the painful memory of backing Sprinter Sacre to win the Supreme last year only to watch him finishing 3rd after going about 1.3 in running, but that's my view.
I understand all the arguments about Sprinter Sacre strengthening up this year, but Peddlers Cross is 1 win from 2 runs at the festival, and the defeat involved getting to within just over a length of arguably the best 2 mile hurdler since Istabraq and finishing 5 lengths in front of a horse who many people (not me incidentally) think can dethrone Big Buck's. The win wasn't bad either, with plenty of good 'uns toiling in his wake. The Kempton run has to be forgiven, but for whatever reason I think the real Peddlers Cross just didn't turn up that day. Nearly uprooting the first fence probably didn't help either, but aside from that his jumping has been pretty good. Cheltenham in March just seems to bring out the best in Peddlers Cross and I will actually be quite shocked if he doesn't come home in front. To answer the question posed by festivalfanatic: Do I think Sprinter Sacre will win the Arkle? No. Have I laid him? No. Why not? Because a lay of Sprinter Sacre at 11/8 is effectively a back of every other horse in the race at 8/11 and I would prefer to just have Peddlers Cross on my side at much bigger odds. |