Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 388 comments are related to the topic:
Sprinter Sacre can't win the Arkle...
Sprinter Sacre can't win the Arkle...
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 388
|
By:
so the only form to use must be last time out? id rather put all th pieces togeather and for me twice hes struglled on a uphill finish, just saying he aint for me at 5/4 rather back sizing
|
|
By:
I wouldn't knock or won't knock anyone for taking SS on. He is short and it is Cheltenham
But for me looking at what he has done, he is without doubt the most likely winner by some way His 2 biggest challengers are peddlers cross and al ferof He smashed peddlers at kempton. Absolutely smashed him...... Before the race I thought peddlers would beat him. I didn't see the race live and the first I knew about the result was reading people's comments on here..... I heard he had been beaten by 16lengths. Straight away I thought well he wasn't right. Then I read he up-rooted the first. Ah I thought that explains it. When I got home I watched the rerun. Well I was taken aback by SS's performance. Peddlers mistake at the first was minimal and 3weeks after the event the trainer tells us he has found "a few niggles" To me SS took him off his feet and could not live with him. Peddlers may well improve for Cheltenham, but 16 lengths to find....good luck And al ferof. I liked him prior to his VC run. He jumped slowly and never once looked like getting in the mix. People may say he was in open company against seasoned horses, but so was SS at Newbury, and he never came out of 2nd gear against horses rated Only 4lb less than the ones that beat al ferof. This horse looks the real deal and I only wish he was running in the champion |
|
By:
i think he would be the most likely winner at Newbury or Kempton,but the race we are talking about is at Cheltenham,and there i think AF is the most likely winner.
He was against seasoned horses,the ones that beat him are amongst the favourites at the festival in Grade 1,s. As you are comparing, What races are French Opera etc amongst the favourites?. |
|
By:
What I was comparing Budd was the fact that al ferof never once looked like getting near the 2 principles in the VC ( 166 rated animals) but SS never came out of 2nd gear when beating a 162 rated horse
I know you're on al ferof so I'm not against you personally. But that last run of his put me off a lot. Think he is need of a trip |
|
By:
well personally i would have Somersby and FR as a lot better than FO.
Anyway its all about Cheltenham,and imo its the perfect race for AF this season,not so sure its the perfect race for SS. |
|
By:
FO is a 162 horse based on his best form but his seasonal reappearances for the last 2 seasons he has run to RPRs of 134 and 129.
|
|
By:
French Opera generally has a decent record when fresh.
|
|
By:
Not true, FO has won very weak races fresh recording low RPRs, finished 9th fto last season when more highly tried.
|
|
By:
It goes without saying any racing fan loves SS. But I also agree its wrong to suggest his form is on a different level, it just isn't. He has been miles more impressive than any other novice but doesn't have better form in the book.
I remember AF getting crabbed for the victory over For Non Stop after the race. That certainly looks decent form now. My gut feeling is that he will win the Arkle, but certainly not on the bridle and not by a big margin. I thought 5/2 was plenty short enough so think 5/4 is crazy and have laid accordingly. But as those who are of a similar view to me have already pointed out, that doesn't mean we are knockers or don't want to see him become the next big thing. I absolutely adore the horse. |
|
By:
Have just watched the supreme of last year again, and see Alf kind of gets left behind at 3 out, but for him to just stay on best of all and win going away up the hill. If the Arkle is run similarly, i personally can see only one winner. Alferof!
Of course SS and co went too hard too early but did they  Most horses that fight out the finish of races at the festival seem to go for home between two and three out and i think BG must have it in his mind this time around. I do not go on ratings, i let my eye tell me what is the best. That can be very deceptive, i have learned that in the past the hard way and so i like to watch things, take an opinion then take a closer look at form of the other horses and i come to the conclusion this year that SS is woefully short, if the he is race ridden to a similar fashion as in the supreme last term he wont win. Alf has by far the best form on offer, closely tied in the CC and PC. SS has been mighty impressive this year though, cannot take that away from him, has had a breathing op and has obv improved for it. But there is a but, and that is if he is ridden in a similar fashion to that he was in the supreme, and if that is the case, he wont win. If BG holds on to him, he could win, but at evs-5/4, no thanks! Those that go early, (in between 2-3 out) will be vulnerable to a finisher, Al Ferof, is likely to be that finisher, simple as! And personally with BG now thinking SS is the 2nd coming, will he ride him in a similar fashion to the way he did in the supreme Very likely!  |
|
By:
I can really see CC and SS setting the race up for AF and PC, if he's back right.
It's just a question of whether SS will have enough to hold on |
|
By:
geraghty did not ride him in the supreme, mccoy did and badly too imo
|
|
By:
"In case you're wondering whether Kauto Star, Big Buck's, Join Together or Al Ferof have been affected, they haven't and are all in good form."
Thats good news,lets hope it stays that way. CCM, Good post that mate,totally agree with all that bar the gut feeling part. |
|
By:
Ok,
 silly me got the jock wrong but SS still has to settle, he is always ridden up with the pace and i cannot see any other outcome than him taking it up between 2-3 out, it is, as ccm states, all about whether he can hold on! |
|
By:
it might be all about him sprinting 8 or 10 clear coming to the last and cruising up the run in
your analysis is full of holes |
|
By:
doubt it,but you may be right of course,same as those with a different opinion to you may be right.
|
|
By:
all I was pointing out was that assuming things like:
" he is always ridden up with the pace and i cannot see any other outcome than him taking it up between 2-3 out, it is, as ccm states, all about whether he can hold on!" is one dimensional thinking - why is it about if he can hold on? It might be about how far in front he is so the comment is worthless |
|
By:
well i cant speak for him,but it sounded like that was how he thinks the race will pan out.
|
|
By:
Everyone said the same about Frankel
 , it won't matter how he's ridden if he's as good as I think. |
|
By:
I seem to be repeating myself (how many times have we been over all of this now?), but the Arkle is not simply a re-run of the Supreme. It's a shorter race. It's a steeplechase. There are more obstacles to jump and they take more jumping. The horses are a year older and more mature having matured at different rates. Some have had brething ops. Some will have different jockeys. The Arkle is not a re-run of the Supreme.
|
|
By:
Judo. Having watched his last two runs, how do you think he will be ridden?
I make it a virtual certainty he is up front or close enough to it the whole way. I don't think there is a horse in the race that is fast enough to give him a lead, and I don't think Baz will be averse to riding him that way. Especially if he feels he will settle better if bowling along at his preferred pace ie. faster than anything else! |
|
By:
Whether anyone rates AF's chances or not, I think it's clear SS will be the best pacemaker he could ever hope for
 |
|
By:
Course it aint,totally different race,but whilst i totally agree with all you say,(basically cos its all beyond doubt)their is still a chance we could have a similar result as we have 3 of the first 4 home in the supreme running in the Arkle,and those 3 are all fancied runners.
Its all just summising mate. |
|
By:
I can only say he will be prominent, after that I don't know but what I can say is that by half way most of the field are going to be going backwards and SS will still be lobbing along... what happens from there is uncertain, jumping will be crucial...
just in my mind the horse is an absolute monster and has any amount in hand of all his rivals and can still improve plenty if required so as far as I am concerned something has to go wrong for him to lose we shall see if I am right |
|
By:
Oh you are bang on there CCM,i was real happy when Cue Card was confirmed.
He along with SS is just what AF needs,trouble is one or both of them could prove better,but their presence in the race cerainly should enable AF to run as well as he can. |
|
By:
Getting boring isn't it stront. Hurdle races and chase races are far far different to what people think.
|
|
By:
Sprinter Sacre a pacemaker? He will be in the winner's enclosure sipping on champers by the time Al Ferof starts staying on.
|
|
By:
Keep it up lads (and lassies if there are any posting). Only another 3 weeks to go! :-)
|
|
By:
I love the banter on here, he will do this, they will do that and the sheep will keep on grazing on cleeve hill
 !Yes, of course hurdles are totally different to fences! We all just have differing opinions on how we think the Arkle will play out, and i for one cannot see it playing out any differently that the supreme did with them same 3 horses last year. My opinion was SS will go for home, if he is as good as people hope he is, then he will sprint up the hill and leave everyone eating dust and we will all be so excited for the future in that we had just witnessed the next superstar chaser! But as a backer, with a decent book on this race, (i really don't mind what the result is as long as one of the top 4 in the betting is the winner, except at this stage PC as i have not done him yet and am waiting for 4s+) i have to look at it with perspective. And every time i watch every runner in this in their preps, i come up with Alf staying on at the death every time, whether thats good enough to win or not i do not know but we will see come March 13th!  |
|
By:
i think the race will be won in the middle section of the race. from when they start down the back til the 2nd last. thats when SS will do a frankel and say "come get me if you can". they wont be able to live with him over those 4-5 fances and he'll have a healthy advantage coming down the hill and by the time the rest realise he's got away it'll be too late.
|
|
By:
You have a vivid imagination, maybe you should use your message as a brief screenplay for a film. Sprinter Sacree has speed, an amazing engine, improved no end and jumps like a stag. Lump on the Sprinter, only one winner!
|
|
By:
The chat here is getting a little out of perspective imo. At the moment the betting is saying Sprinter Sacre has just over a 40% chance of winning the Arkle which I happen to think is fair. For those who think he is short I would like to see how they would tissue the first few in the betting now given the likely runners and likely smallish field, I would especially be interested to see yours Budde given you make Al Ferof the most likely winner?
|
|
By:
giggsy, from the top of the hill to the foot of it there is 3 fences, that is 3 out, not 5 out. This is where i also fully expect SS to kick on from, the exact same spot he did in last years supreme. It is full hardy in my opinion to expect him to be able to hold his position after that. Something will come out of the pack and chase him, whether or not he holds on or not is another question altogether! If he manages to run away from them as you say that i re-iterate my above quote, in that we will have just witnessed the next superstar chaser! For that reason, i think we are all very much looking forward to it! It is going to be some race! That is for sure!
This has been done to death now  It is over, and goodnight from sts  ! (on this topic anyways unless something emerges with something new) |
|
By:
3rd last 5th last whatever! all i'm saying is that the damage will be done in the middle part of the race.
|
|
By:
Gonna be the best Arkle in decades - SS very short but as a PC fan, I am torn between heart and head with the head saying SS will win. No money down yet but would love to get 4s on PC as ew free bet imo.
|
|
By:
Gonna be the best Arkle in decades - SS very short but as a PC fan, I am torn between heart and head with the head saying SS will win. No money down yet but would love to get 4s on PC as ew free bet imo.
|
|
By:
Barnesy,i aint a bookie mate and have never thought of compiling odds,dont think i would be very good at it to be honest.I do think AF deserves to be shorter in the betting on what ive seen,and SS slightly longer.
Yes,i think AF is the most likely winner cos i think the course will play to his strengths,whilst with SS i think the opposite. I have never had a problem taking on shorties at the festival,and a novice chase is a good one to get involved in in that respect. |
|
By:
STS,
Think i will join you in leaving this topic,ive probably said too much anyway. Just gonna look forward to it now,and let the horses do the talking. |
|
By:
CCM, your laying SS for a second time ? This race will shape you festival.
BTW, dont think it has been mentioned on here, but think they may run ERADICATE as a pacemaker. Not that he needs one ofcourse. |
|
By:
*your
|