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STF has beaten him tbf.
Can't have STF or Montbazon on my mind for this race. Be suprised if either are placed. |
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TD STF bt Mont in a flat race and he's flat bred Mont isn't, this is totally different but l take your point onboard.
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Hurdles make a big difference though TD
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I punted on the Cheltenham Festival for 20+ years before I started looking at trends and I can tell you Paul Jones book and his way of thinking revolutionised my betting - really opened my eyes into looking beyond the bare form of who beat who and who did the big speed numbers (which I still use of course) and looking more into patterns of training and campaigning, placement, breeding and many other factors
and when you have a few years of trends analysis behind you it starts to really make sense and I have had very successful Cheltenhams ever since - made a lot of money in the last few years laying short priced runners for big money that had massive trends to overcome |
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yeah understand that, was just balancing the argument...
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fair enough mate
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thought Montbazon's jumping was decidely sticky at Plumpton...i'd want to see a more fluent round before i could consider him
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does he find off the bridle?
not convinced about him at all. |
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Yes l agree Duncan but it was a bog and he wants better ground. l also think he'll jump better when they go a more competitive pace.
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We don't really know do we TD? Guess we'll soon find out!!!
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His next race is the one to judge. He had been given the mid-winter off deliberatley so after 47 days the Plumpton race was nothing more than a schooling sesh for him. But I agree in that he needs to show us more, hopefully that will be on his next run, and I think he will.
Time for a ruby, laters. |
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Re the op, absolutely no idea, probably to do wit the lack of obvious contenders/hot pots, I have been against him and Prospect from day 1, they may look more obvious speed horses than Simonsig but I would be astonished if he is not a better horse (I've also backed Mono though the slippage in his price is a worry).
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I see Keys has a few entries this week, ranging from 2 -2m5f. He would have to improve his jumping from debut but i could forgive him that considering it was boglike that day.
What's the consensus on his likely optimum trip ? |
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nothing to say Montbazon wants better ground yet...it may turn out to be the case but Newbury was softest he's encountered and represents a perfectly good effort
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Was just looking through the betting for the Supreme,The fact that Wandering Aengus is available at 16s tells me everything i need to know about this race as of now,píss poor
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Did a little write up to get to grips with this open renewal if anyone is interested. http://onetojump.blogspot.com/2012/01/supreme-novice-hurdle-early-look.html
From what I have seen I like Tetlami and Cash & Go |
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i like tetlami as well,looks as good as any of them imo.
problem is hes one of 50 that the trainer has entered!! |
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I was a bit unsettled by the Paul Jones stat given on here about NH types coming to the fore since they started producing G/S ground for the Tuesday and my choice is an ex-flat horse (Galileo's Choice). Went through the race last night looking at the NH types and came up with the same 2 horses as ICS - Tetlami and Cash and Go. Will read the blog with interest to see if his reasoning coincides with mine :)
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Very good read IC superstar, thanks for that.
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Great blog IC.
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yep need to see them again to have a clearer picture
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Last 4 winners of this race have had 4 or more runs over hurdles so a bit of experience is pretty crucial here.
That said, I dont really fancy the ones with the exp! |
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Trifolium each way
I would of loved a fancy price that was on offer before its last run. Before sundays run he also travelled well in behind last years cheltenham fancy so young. |
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its one of them "if you didn't go to the wedding, don't go to the funeral bets"
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telstar,he should have beat so young that day,i was on so young but theres no way they were bothered winning that day
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