Anyone care to explain why Steps To Freedom is favourite for the Supreme?

Presumably because he won the Aintree bumper and the Cheltenham bumper winner isn't in the field this year!

It's beating of Prospect Wells and Ericht in its last run looked like good form at the time - perhaps less so now. However it hasn't run since so hasn't done anything bad. It's unbeaten in 3 hurdles including over C&D. Plus it's an open looking race - no obvious sperstars/Irish hype horses this year. However, I take your point!

I honestly have no idea. Form has been let down time and again by Prospect Wells. Simonsig should be clear fav, for me

I'd have Simon fav too if only he were an absolute intended runner

Surely a very long break, combined with average looking hurdling form isn't going to do STF any favours. Just can't see why he is fav at all

l agree with the original post and a few that followed too, for me at the moment he's favourite because he's a definite runner, barring injury, he's got good bumper form and he's a C&D winner. His form has taken plenty of batterings, although to be fair to the horse he ain't done much wrong himself, but as no other challenger has put up a fantastic performance so far he's there by default really. l'm certain in my mind that he won't be favourite on the day as others with similar form will shorten once confirmed for the race but the race to my eyes so far looks like it could go to a horse that is largely unconsidered in the betting.

well something has to be fav,and he has won over c&d and is unbeaten over hurdles as Stront points out.
Hes also a definite runner,and personally i would ignore Prospect Wells run at Sandown.
As for Simonsig being fav- Why??
He has no hurdles victory at 2m and is not definite to run,and looked a bridle horse at Sandown.
At least with STF we know he will have no problem with Chelt.
Given the form in the book of him and the other candidates i think hes just about deserved fav at the moment.

I'm not sure how you can call Simonsig a bridle horse on the basis of one run.  The form of that  Sandown run is by far the single best piece of novice hurdle form around IMO. will be suited by drop to 2m and has an outstanding chance in a weak renewal.

I said he looked a bridle horse,that dont mean he is one.
Maybe others got that impression,he was going far better than the winner towards the last thats for sure.
Of course it could be he dont stay as well as the winner over that distance,and he will be a lot better over 2m,but personally i would like to see him finish a race better than that before i backed him in a race.Its possible others think the same.

Personally l feel what we've seen so far is the horses are all much of a muchness that's why it wouldn't suprise me to see an unconsidered horse play a big part.

You could well be right bland. As for Simonsig, the fact he's only run over 20f over hurdles makes me think he might not be a Supreme horse (either a runner or a winner).

buddeliea
04 Feb 12 15:31

personally i would like to see him finish a race better than that before i backed him in a race


watch his bumper win

ok i will
back in a moment

Horses that finish bumpers strongly don't necessarily transfer that to hurdles, depends how much energy jumping saps from them.

Indeed, though he should get 16 f since he gets 20.

won easily.
Still wont get me backing him,and as thieves says,it aint hurdles.

Indeed Stront,but he still has to finish the race uphill,and win.
I'm not convinced he has a fav chance of doing that.

I think 10s is a decent price. Unbeaten in 3 hurdle starts, very impressive on first two prior to srambling home at Cheltenham. Destroyed quality handicappers Sailors Warn & Jack cool only his second start over timber,he just failed to give 5lb to subsequent Group 3 winner Flowers of Spring probably the highlight of his flat campaign over 10f. Still hard to get the manner of his Aintree bumper win out of my mind, last to first from the home bend under a motionless carb, form which has been upheld on numerous occasions since. He ran at least once every month since Aintree so it would be fair to say he was in need of a break after Cheltenham. Love the fact he will have had 4 months off before the roar that greets him next month !

Fill yer boots

Budd - I won't be backing him either and I can't see any reason at all why he should be favourite for the Supreme before he wins a decent race over 16/17 f.

this is one of the hardest races to fathom at the Festival this year but I don't like the current favourite - that Prospect Wells and Ericht form looks very poor by Grade 1 standards

Could be a point to note re flat bred horses like Steps to Freedom, Prospect Wells, Cinders and Ashes etc

"There wasn’t much between the winning records of NH-breds and ex-Flat horses up until fairly recently where they shared out renewals of the Supreme fairly evenly. However, since a policy was put in force by course officials to provide good-to-soft ground for the opening-day, the NH-bred horses have started to come out on top to the extent they filled the first four places last year following on from successive 1-2-3-4-5’s in 2009 and 2010 which is a big swing."

You are Paul Jones and I claim my £5!

Hahaha Stront, no l'm not but l am an avid reader of his material. l did nick that last statement from him, l'll admit that. You have to admit, it's an interesting point though, even if your not a stats follower.

That books been mentioned a few times this season,never heard of it before.
Does it contain some nice pictures?

I read a lot of his stuff and buy his Chelt and aintree/Punchestown books every year. I find him to be an excellent race analyst in general. I think that's because his work is stats based but he uses them as pointers rather than as rules and he's prepared to trust his judgement in conunction with the trends.

Budd - no!

Bland - incidentally, I read that quote last night when thinking about a few horses for the Supreme and Triumph this year!

Completely agree Stront, as you need to do with stats, he uses them along with lots of common sense.

Budd even if stats aren't your thing his book is worth buying purely for his point of view and analysis on races.

How much it cost bland?

I have bought the cheltenham book in each of the last 8 years - it is really worth a read

£14.95 budd, here's the link

http://www.weatherbysshop.co.uk/books/betting/cheltenham-festival-betting-guide-2012

Just had a look on Amazon - £13,but not available yet!!

ah,cheers bland.

Usually comes out towards the end of Feb Budd. he includes a write up of the major contenders and major trial races for each big festival race so I guess he can't do it much earlier.

see you get a £10 free bet if you purchase from Weatherbys,sounds a good deal.

yeah comes out towards the end of Feb normally when all the trials have been done etc

Montbazon will b1tch slap just about everything in this race anyway. Hold ye bets.

cheers Stront,not sure how much i will use it when it comes to my wagers,but i guess if used sensibly it cant do any harm.
Thing i am always aware of with these type of books is them putting me off a horse i fancy and it goes and wins!!
I would find it hard to take if that happened.

Think it's out on the 24th guys.

Hope your right Sint, l'm already on.

Yep,certainly beat Ericht a lot further than STF did.
Perhaps HE should be fav!!
Hes a big player Sint,that i do know.

STF has beaten him tbf.

Can't have STF or Montbazon on my mind for this race. Be suprised if either are placed.

TD STF bt Mont in a flat race and he's flat bred Mont isn't, this is totally different but l take your point onboard.

Hurdles make a big difference though TD

I punted on the Cheltenham Festival for 20+ years before I started looking at trends and I can tell you Paul Jones book and his way of thinking revolutionised my betting - really opened my eyes into looking beyond the bare form of who beat who and who did the big speed numbers (which I still use of course) and looking more into patterns of training and campaigning, placement, breeding and many other factors

and when you have a few years of trends analysis behind you it starts to really make sense and I have had very successful Cheltenhams ever since - made a lot of money in the last few years laying short priced runners for big money that had massive trends to overcome

yeah understand that, was just balancing the argument...

fair enough mate

thought Montbazon's jumping was decidely sticky at Plumpton...i'd want to see a more fluent round before i could consider him

does he find off the bridle?

not convinced about him at all.

Yes l agree Duncan but it was a bog and he wants better ground. l also think he'll jump better when they go a more competitive pace.

We don't really know do we TD? Guess we'll soon find out!!!

His next race is the one to judge. He had been given the mid-winter off deliberatley so after 47 days the Plumpton race was nothing more than a schooling sesh for him. But I agree in that he needs to show us more, hopefully that will be on his next run, and I think he will.

Time for a ruby, laters.

Re the op, absolutely no idea, probably to do wit the lack of obvious contenders/hot pots, I have been against him and Prospect from day 1, they may look more obvious speed horses than Simonsig but I would be astonished if he is not a better horse (I've also backed Mono though the slippage in his price is a worry).

I see Keys has a few entries this week, ranging from 2 -2m5f. He would have to improve his jumping from debut but i could forgive him that considering it was boglike that day.
What's the consensus on his likely optimum trip ?

nothing to say Montbazon wants better ground yet...it may turn out to be the case but Newbury was softest he's encountered and represents a perfectly good effort

Was just looking through the betting for the Supreme,The fact that Wandering Aengus is available at 16s tells me everything i need to know about this race as of now,píss poor

Did a little write up to get to grips with this open renewal if anyone is interested. http://onetojump.blogspot.com/2012/01/supreme-novice-hurdle-early-look.html


From what I have seen I like Tetlami and Cash & Go

i like tetlami as well,looks as good as any of them imo.
problem is hes one of 50 that the trainer has entered!!

I was a bit unsettled by the Paul Jones stat given on here about NH types coming to the fore since they started producing G/S ground for the Tuesday and my choice is an ex-flat horse (Galileo's Choice). Went through the race last night looking at the NH types and came up with the same  2 horses as ICS - Tetlami and Cash and Go.  Will read the blog with interest to see if his reasoning coincides with mine :)

Very good read IC superstar, thanks for that.

Great blog IC.

yep need to see them again to have a clearer picture

Last 4 winners of this race have had 4 or more runs over hurdles so a bit of experience is pretty crucial here.

That said, I dont really fancy the ones with the exp!

Trifolium each way
I would of loved a fancy price that was on offer before its last run.
Before sundays run he also travelled well in behind last years cheltenham fancy so young.

its one of them "if you didn't go to the wedding, don't go to the funeral bets"

telstar,he should have beat so young that day,i was on so young but theres no way they were bothered winning that day