|
By:
One thing i do get the impression of is Mr Pricwise is in the Philip Hobbs Fan Club. Captain Chris, Wishful Thinking, Menorah.
|
|
By:
The natural progression if your as good at picking winners as Tom Segal is,is to either set up a premium
rate tipping line and/or bet them heavily yourself and test yourself as a professional gambler. The first option would undoubtedly generate him more wealth and if he could hold his nerve under pressure so would the second option. Henry Rix who had an equally impressive record as a newspaper tipster has probably made a fortune doing a mixture of both. For whatever reason Segal appears not to want to push things further. For the punter betting 3 figure plus amounts this leads to problems if you are betting in the same races that he is likely to pick horses in. What do you do take a probable lesser price the night before? or just hope he doesn't pick the horse you fancy in the morning. For the £5 or £10 punter this probably isn't an issue and they are happy . The bigger punter just has to stomach the situation and try and adapt to it as I think he could be doing the PW column for a very long time. It's a little bit ironic ,given that he has said the majority of the horses he puts up he doesn't back himself, that his pick could contract from 16/1 to 5/1 off his judgement yet he doesn't have a penny on it himself. |
|
By:
Pricewise is a great excuse to shorten up horses. It's a search for value which is cut before the paper is even out. I can't see the point of it. Then the Racing Post has the cheek to advertise his winners at prices which are impossible to get. Let's just forget about all of the underpriced losers shall we? It's ok for the sheep like you all say.
|
|
By:
I'm not sure I'd describe his followers as sheep ,Masterminded, as sheep aren't the brightest of creatures and people following Pricewise are making a decent money and probably having a lot of fun with it . If Segal was to lose the plot people would gradually stop following, which
is shrewd. I just find it a bit strange that Segal doesn't maximise the ablity he's got. If I was able to pick winners at the rate he does I'd be telling no one and putting some very big bets on from a cruise ship in the Caribbean. |
|
By:
....or be placing slightly lower bets, but taking a wage from bookies alerting them to ricks they've made.
Guaranteed income and all that.... |
|
By:
because when you have to do it for real, to earn your living, support a family and all that it definitely changes the calculations - when you are getting a very nice salary it takes away all that stress and allows you to free your mind
|
|
By:
Segal see's them as rick's but if he didn't pick them would anyone else spot them. It strikes me that his
veiw is moving the market on its own and if didn't pick those horses their price wouldn't move in a lot of cases as not many other's would see it. |
|
By:
I agree rick that thats probably the reason he doesn't bet for a living and has no ambitions to do so.
His picks are very subjective off mainly video info which could easily go astray under a lot of pressure. This is unlike people who use figures which is objective and easier to maintain under pressure. The problem with figures is that a lot of people use them and it's not easy getting value as there is a lower skill level meaning many can do it. Segal's winning picking ablity is a Natural Talent that he has and cann't be mimicked. |
|
By:
Are there people out there that are actually going to back Menorah,Captain Chris and Wishfull Thinking cos some geezer in a newspaper tipped them??
Even though their chances of winning are pretty remote?? Blimey!! |
|
By:
Yes. Apparently some people even follow tips from Graham Rodway or The Couch.
|
|
By:
Anyone with Oscars Well, Menorah, Wishful Thinking & Capt Chris as their best hopes for Cheltenham because they read it in a newspaper are sheep. Either that or the Hobbs/Johnson/Whately fan club gone wrong. I have nothing against tipsters but not people who advertise profits from imaginary prices. The only people who make money from Pricewise are the arbers and they get their accounts restricted in the end.
|
|
By:
seems to be a lot of negativity regarding pricewise. at the end of the day hes only trying to give punters advice regarding value bets.in my opinion ithink oscars wells and menorah is good advice but in these sort of races the form is there to see for most serious racing fans so hes telling us nothing we all ready now, i want to see the pricwise tips for the handicaps as this is where horses can be massivley overpriced.
|
|
By:
Pricewise is gr8 - gr8 info, bit of excitement and anticipation of what he is going to pick etc - no harm in it - as mentioned in previous posts it is a free market - thankfully he also stated H Fly was no value at odds of 2-1 / 7-4 :)
|
|
By:
great topic this,,,,personally i back all of the pw selections although not all the ante posters,,no brainer if u wanna make cash and i also subscribe to pw extra shame tom only tips on the weekends on it...
regards prices and cuts all the high st bookies will lay the overnight prices which have been cut overnight on an ante post market in their shops for 10 to 15 mins and then they are gone,,, |
|
By:
Just to re-iterate what i said above, yes the firms cut a few horses the night before pw puts one up, but they some of them do push them back out. An example of this is the Arkle, CC was 10s the day before PW put up Menorah, it went to 9s and some lists were only 8s, 2 days later and it is back to 10s with one firm which is get able. SS was 9/4 unchanged. Alf was 6s, but that was always under threat anyways as has been below that price on here for ages, most firms went just 9/2 in anticipation to what PW was to pick, it was 5s top, now with 2 firms he is back to 11/2.
Am sorry, but this thread, and therefore argument means for nothing imo, just feeling sorry for themselves bettors whom either cannot get on anymore cos they want to stake too much or they have genuinely missed the boat imho! |
|
By:
Not sure I follow this argument really...if you ask Tom Segal what's going to win the Arkle, he wouldn't say Menorah; he's put up Menorah because at this stage he believes he's too big a price given what he's shown. If you thought the same, you'd of backed Menorah by now, and if you don't, then what are you worried about?
I backed Menorah on Saturday evening when he drifted after he fell at Doncaster; the thinking behind it was if he has another race before the Festival and wins he'll shorten, and if he falls again or doesn't impress then he's not going to win and so I wouldn't be interested regardless of his price! It's all about playing ante post; you can't be one of these 'wait till the day' punters and then moan the the value has gone from the market! |
|
By:
Think it is worth getting back to the point of the thread.
1. It is only referring to Pr1cewise Antepost bets. 2. It is directly commenting on bookies shortening up not just his selection but also all the other leading market contenders (who the winner is most likely to come from) in the couple of days leading up to the tip. These definitely do not lengthen back to their original prices after his tip to anywhere near the degree the bookies shorten their prices before his tip appears. Pr1cewise is costing EVERYONE who backs the winner a large portion of their winnings unless his actual selection wins the race. He is sticking pins in this year after admitting he thinks Hurricane Fly, Big Bucks will win and Sprinter Sacre is something special. Basically therefore he is really putting you on losers unless something goes wrong with the leading contenders. The only people to benefit from these antepost tips are Pr1cewise Arbers. True close proximity antepost punters are losing massive value because of him. Long range antepost punters are not affected. 3. If you are a long range antepost backer and say stuff the short range antepost backers then you are leading to your own demise through selfishness. Antepost punters are in this together. |
|
By:
4. You are unlikely to get more than a bob on the Pr1cewise Antepost selection anyway so cannot take full advantage of any perceived value and you are also on your way to getting your account restricted.
5. Pr1cewise non antepost takes advantage of premium information coming into the office. This is less valuable for antepost where it is relying more on his own ability to see the future, a completely different art, rather than heavily using privileged information which helps him show such good results on day of race tips. Ban Pr1cewise Antepost, the case is as clear as day. |
|
By:
5. is the reason once past Pr1cewise tipsters leave the paper they then"struggle" to show a profit or anywhere near the same profits by the way.
|
|
By:
Spot on Eric. Think plenty have not even read the title of this thread.
|
|
By:
"Pr1cewise non antepost takes advantage of premium information coming into the office. This is less valuable for antepost where it is relying more on his own ability to see the future, a completely different art, rather than heavily using privileged information which helps him show such good results on day of race tips"
This is NOT true. Eric, you're a idiot. I'm guessing you wanted to back something he's tipped up but you thought 'Ooo no, i'll wait till the day because anything could happen between now & the Festival...' and you've missed the price! Rubbish, see it, fancy it, back it...don't expect the market or an individual price to hold until you're ready to play! |
|
By:
Explain why tipsters who were successful as Pr1cewise are far less or not successful when they leave the role and become independant tipsters.
|
|
By:
In fact dont, as it is going off the subject of Antepost once more.
|
|
By:
Eric, go to the 10 Downing Street website and start a petition, http://www.number10.gov.uk/take-part/public-engagement/petitions/
you might get this debated in parliament! |
|
By:
I think dwm767 is spot on there! Some bad losers on this thread and every other price wise thread imo! They DO lengthen back, never immediately and never by the same bookies but they do lengthen back over time. That is entirely what it is all about, timing.
Just sour grapes imo whinging about price wise. |
|
By:
Yes everyone on here is moaning because they are sore losers. Even though the antepost bets are yet to even run ffs.
|
|
By:
The whole concept of Pricewise hasnt been good in the long run for punters, hence the restrictions on accounts unless they are totally clueless and price resistant and the levels of bet acceptance being seen in shops nowdays compared to even a few years ago.
Same with price comparison sites, why, ifs it becomes that easy to get a price without putting in hardly any effort at all then it can only be taken to smaller amounts, its like any "Special offers" you see in stores, its for either a limited time only or limited to the 1st few customers, try buying up all the stock up at a supermarket thats on "Special" and i doubt you will get it nowdays. Nothing in life can be TOO easy to last and this combined with the exchanges, will , in the end, damage both punting and the sport of horseracing. |
|
By:
Ok, my point about bad losers is mis-representitive of the meaning, but the term, sour grapes, is not!
zilzal1, i work for a store development agency called deeset, we travel the country refitting large supermarkets, getting them ready for new lines, offers, seasons etc. This time of year is a particularly quiet period hence why i am on here a lot at the moment. The supermarkets work on a fair deal for all basis where special offers are concerned, no one person can go into a store and take advantage. It is my opinion that this is now the same with bookmakers as far as price wise is concerned! Also, personally i think a £50 win bet or £25 e/way is ample especially as PW is so popular. It is the people taking advantage, that will do the ultimate damage for all, and they are all on here doing all the whinging. There is a thread on the horse racing forum, asking if anyone has any inside knowledge on what particulars bookmakers rules are on restricting and closing down accounts. It is basically those that take advantage that get restricted and closed, those that open multiple accounts taking advantage of the special offers and free bets and busing them that are ultimately to blame. No bookmaker likes or will put up with a punter whom the perceive to be taking advantage. As far as all bookmakers are concerned, gambling is for social enjoyment and nothing more, after all, this is what the industry is fundamentally all about, those that want to and can make a living from it can take a hike! |
|
By:
But its spread out now, go into a shop with a £100 bet at a early price and they often ring up. I used to manage a good few years ago and can tell you that the limits have been lowered dramatically and it WILL get worse
And guess what, punters who like a larger bet will go elsewhere. If the PERCEPTION is that you cannot be allowed to win even tiddly amounts(except for a massive stroke of luck) then the larger gambler, even though he may be a loser, will go somewhere else for his gambling habit |
|
By:
He isnt as good antepost, these tips are spin-offs from his day of race tips which are good for the reasons given above. This means you are getting worse odds for your mid range antepost winners (those they shorten that he doesnt end up tipping) due to bookies shortening the market leaders up just before his tip is released and also his antepost tips are not as good as his daily tips. Lose and Lose for mid-range antepost punters due to scared bookies and Pr1cewise Arbers backing anything he sneezes at so they have a risk free bet.
|
|
By:
The Racing Post is ensuring Antepost punters get bad value.
|
|
By:
If you bet with betfair, its an open market and as such play it. We all know through buying the racing post when the selections of pricewise will be so back your selections before. Just like the different declaration stages, just another market changer. Why everyone is getting so het up about it unless they are just going for pricewise selection after he picks.
|
|
By:
Eric's points are very valid. The Pricewise column sells newspapers AND helps the RP's main advertisers increase their profits, even though the column itself makes a profit seemingly at their expense. Which is why there is no hope in hell of it being dropped, ditched, binned, banned or anything else. All we can do is adapt our strategies to deal with it and fume when our accounts are limited because our selections sometimes coincide with it.
|
|
By:
yep,personally dont get involved with pricewise,antepost or not.
With antepost i mainly use betfair and take prices early with a view to getting big prices and getting in a good position nearer the day of the race. |
|
By:
Last Instalment, Join Together and Flight Lieutenant all being shortened up by the bookies for the RSA ahead of the Pr1cewise antepost tip ... thanks a lot Pr1cewise.
|
|
By:
have to get on before he puts em up eric !
|
|
By:
Yep, fully expecting as always when the selection is known in the morning that in the coming days one or two of the bookies will lengthen the other two to their original prices again. It always happens, momentarily sometimes, sometimes only for a matter of hours in a day sometimes forever.
But to be honest, if you have not got your antepost book sorted on the RSA by now and like me have backed LI JT and FL then you really have missed the boat and should just give it up till the morning of the races where likely hood when hills/lads etc dangle carrots and offer specials and price happy hours etc you will in all likely hood get the same price as now or slightly better! Sour grapes, delish! |
|
By:
Sour Grapes? How can that be when none of this has affected me? I dont think antepost punters should take this market manipulation lightly. You sound the kind of punter who will lose long term as you dont mind giving up your value.
The price slashing of the market leaders outside the fav as is customary now is taking place on the RSA. |
|
By:
blimey. what a joke some people on here are. pwise tips up less than 1 horse a day on average. i agree it must be annoying if u fancy the same as him but there are plenty of people out there who move the market every night on poxy races which means prices aren't available at what they should be in the morning.
admittedly it is getting worse now with his ante post bets as the bookes are just cutting everything in order to avoid taking bets. but thats the bookies that are pathetic not pwise's fault. i remember getting 250 on his selections a few years ago. now its impossible to get over 100 on in total unless its with hills. as for saying u cant make profits out of him, thats quite simply wrong. if u make the effort via phone calls, shops and internet accounts it can be done. i have upped my stakes this year and am winning more than i have ever done on pricewise selections and thats having every account virtually shut except william hill. |
|
By:
Eric, you are assuming that everyone is just sat there waiting for the selection while the bookies shorten up in anticipation. Reality is that many of us have been getting our wedges out and backing our selections before his is known. That is why the prices are going down. In my case I have been lumping on LI as I reckon he will tip FL and if he tips FL there could well be a knock on to LI as he beat FL so easily last time. Does that make sense?
|