Cheltenham Festival
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Did the run today suggest he has any chance come March? I see the bookies have shortened him- suppose this is due to being second and beating two other decent horses? Will he improve for better ground? My head tells me nothing will beat HF but think Oscars Well has good place prospects if the ground is good. Thoughts?
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Agree with you... great chnace of a place. If HF turns up and is 80% or better, he'll win.
But outside of him, I think OW has a fighting chance in a race and conditions that should suit him brilliantly imo. I think he has been over analysed for much of the season. Harrington's horses have been wrong for much of it, and have just come right. Often as simple as that. |
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I do not get the CH hype that surrounds this horse - never won a 2m hurdle, how many CH winners had never won a 2m hurdle?
And has been beaten out of sight in all 4 runs over 2m this season, will be lucky to finish in the 1st 5/6 imo |
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yeah i was was encouraged by that run obviously he has his work cut out to beat hurricane fly but i like the way this horse has progressed in his races this year . anything can happen in a race , and the trainer knows how to ready one for the big day , and id say he has a great each way chance think hes about 4s on here to be placed !
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Is everyone of the view that he takes his chance in the Champion then ? I thought he'd be more likely to head to the World hurdle.
Hows this for a choice though, take on Hurricane Fly or Big Bucks... |
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But beat Thousand Stars and Unaccompnaied well enough over 2m today BJG
 Were neither of those creible CH horses iyo? |
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yep oscars well reversed form with both of them ,seems to be steadily coming to hand and should be spot on for chelt !
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Thousand Stars was used as a pacemaker and i think Unaccompanied quite cleary never went a yard on the ground
Good ground over 2m at Chelt if the 3 of em turned up - id fancy TS and Unacc to finish in front of him Game of opinions tho  |
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Don't think there's any doubt Oscars Well is being aimed at the Champion is there? Yes, I think he's got a good place chance. He seems to be improving for every run this season, the yard are now in form and I believe he'll benefit from decent ground and a fast run race (though it's an argument that's been had afew times on other threads). It's hard to see him beating a fully fit Hurricane Fly.
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BJG,
Dont think any of them enjoyed that ground yesterday.HF semed to cope best,but then hes a class act. Stronts right imo,good pace and decent ground will see him at his best,and that imo puts him in the CH picture. |
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Been tipping him all season at massive prices (well before Pricewise), though obviously after yesterday there appears no way he can possibly beat the Fly bar injury or a fall.
Great chance of being in the money but I still wish they'd gone chasing this season. |
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I've had a good piece of the 9/1 w/o HF.
His rating has steadily creeped up with each run this season and im expecting a peak effort in March. CCM, what do you mean when you say their ''horses were not right''. I've always taken it to mean a bug or sickness in the yard but you have said that of several trainers this season so wonder what you mean being an owner of horses .. |
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massive fan of him. keep looking back at him in the the neptune and he travelled so well. got there nearly too easy. there is so much differnce from running in bogs in ireland to cheltenham festival ground. i think a fast run 2 miles( overturn hopefully)will be right up his street. he seems to improve as season goes on. he cant beat the fly, can he? but i think has a huge chance of being placed and will run a stormer.
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the horse is an out and out mudlark - all of his highest rated performances have come on atrocious going and that is why he ran second yesterday
won't see which way they went in March whether the Fly shows up or not |
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Tascro
He won a couple of Grade Ones on Soft / Heavy ground in December and February last season and another race in November so he does act on that ground and he doesn't necessarily improve throughout the season Don't get me wrong, I'm a massive fan too, based on last season's Neptune, and have backed him for both the World Hurdle (for buttons but to a huge price) and for the Champion (prior to Pricewises involvement). I thought connections should have gone down the WH route and come second to Big Bucks, rather than the CH and come in behing certainly HF plus, arguably, one or two others too. When I saw connections were insisting he was a 2 miler, then I backed him for the CH as, like I said, I'm a fan and he has the class to be competitive whatever he runs in. |
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His race in the Neptune on decent ground was probably his best performance,given the status of the race,that suggests to me that he is in no way an out and out mudlark.He has form on sh!t ground yes,but his best imo is not.
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Harrington believes Oscars Well can be an even bigger force on the sounder surface he is likely to encounter in March.
"I was very happy with his run and he is improving with every run," said the County Kildare handler. "If you look at his form from last season he did exactly the same. He got beaten first time out and then won his maiden and what was probably a weak Grade One at Navan. "It wasn't until early February that he really came to himself and it seems to be the same this time around, as he is certainly getting better. "He didn't like the ground either on Sunday, so it was a very good run to finish second to an incredible horse. |
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If you don't have form in the mud you'd rarely get a run in Ireland.
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Says it all imo
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You only need to look at his Official Rating to see he has improved with each run. It aint rocket science, like.
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judorick
the horse is an out and out mudlark  |
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Sint. I think stables go through spells when the vast majority of their horses dont quite run as well as they can. I'v seen it for a period at every stable I've ever been involved with.
I dont think the trainers even know the answer themselves, but for whatever reason things dont quite go too well for a period that can last any length of time. With EOG it can be like that for a month or so, or sometimes most of a season. He cant explain why they run a bit flat for a while. I think Harrington's has been under a bit of a cloud for much of the first half of the season. Of course there will always be a few horses that win despite this, but right now, most seeming to be running nearer to their best. |
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Yep I know what you mean about horses and stables not always running at their best etc. And some periods are more productive. I have just always taken the phrase ''not right'' to infer something was wrong .. like a bug or injury for example.
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Oscars Well started the season rated 147.
After his seasonal debut he was rated 150, up 3lbs. After second run he was rated 154, up 4lbs. After third run he was rated 157, up 3lbs. After his second to HF he'll go up a couple more, lets say 159. So, if he improves a similar amount for his next run, and a few more for the conditions which connections have always maintained he wants, then im afraid to say he is going to run a biggun in March. Oh Yes. I have smelt the coffe, have you??  |
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Oscars Well: He ran the race of his life finishing second to Hurricane Fly. One thing I love about his performances this year is that he is improving with every run and has now reversed the form with Thousand Stars. He will now I hope come on again from that run; he is the type of horse that always comes into top from in the spring of the year. He will head straight to the Champion Hurdle now.
From trainers website. 9/1 at PP's in the w/o HF market is now 13/2.  |
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The softer the ground the better he runs. He wants 2m4+ on heavy ground. Be surprised if he places in the CH has a good cruising speed but when races heat up he gets left behind. The going helped him considerably yesterday.
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So how do you explain that his best run was on decent ground at Cheltenham last March??
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I think thats a complete myth MM. He has had 9 runs over hurdles... 2 on heavy, 6 on soft and only one on good.
The one on good was almost winning a Championship race at Cheltenham. So how anyone can suggest he doesnt want that ground is completely beyond me. In all honesty, he is probably quite versatile with regards to the ground. |
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Personally feel that run has been way overhyped in the Neptune. His best runs for me have been on heavy & he will be better over further. Example yesterdays run behind Hurricane Fly has to be way above his run in the Neptune. I would also say his run in the Deloitte was a better run. Just my opinion can clearly run on better ground but I can't see it being a plus especially over 2 miles.
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overhyped?? he tanked through that race and if anything he was going too well.
Given that it was the Neptune and contained better opposition than the Deloitte,i think it reasonable to say thats his best run to date. Of course he can be better over further,but that dont mean he cant run a big race in the CH. The way he travels suggests to me that a fast paced 2m at Cheltenham on decent ground is right up his street. |
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I'd expect 1000 stars to beat OW if they faced each other again in the Champion. He made a really bad mistake 3 out and lost loads of momentum, and I think the better ground would also suit him better in the Champion.
Oscars Well has improved, but 1000 stars 8 length loss to an absolute peak condition HF in last year's Champion is better than anything OW has done imo. |
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Masterminded, OW has always raced on Soft ground, so clearly his best form will be on it, horses in Ireland dont have much choice.
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Why was the Neptune a better race than the Deloitte? He beat Megastar about a length ffs! Zaidpour would beat most of the horses that ran in the Neptune imo & ran in the wrong race. Anyway like I say that's my opinion & I'll be surprised if I'm wrong. Not going to get into pointless debate with backers of the horse it's too repetitive.
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He ran agaist what i consider to be better horses in First Lieutenant,Rock on Ruby and So Young,and may well have won but for his error at the last,and that beating of Megastar would have been a lot further had it not been for that error.
No wish for a pointless debate either,is that what we are having? Thought we were simply discussing our thoughts.Do you expect us all to agree?? |
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So how do you explain that his best run was on decent ground at Cheltenham last March??
that is a matter of opinion, the ratings are bound to be high simply because it is a Grade 1 at the Festival but it was quite slowly run and Oscars Well got a Topspeed Ratiing of 111 which makes me think it was FAR from his best run - for example he recorded 143 when winning his previous start (won by 5 and half lengths) on heavy going |
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Just going on the opposition and the fact he may well have beat them.
Yes its a matter of opinion course it is,thats what we are doing on here,but its an opinion with substance when you look at what his Neptune opponents are doing this year. ROR,SO Young,FL are all running well in their respective races. |
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but it was quite slowly run and Oscars Well got a Topspeed Ratiing of 111 which makes me think it was FAR from his best run
judorick, why would you give any significance to a speed figure in a race that was slowly run? most of the time that is all the Topspeed ratings reflect imo- the pace the race was run at ie good pace= good rating, slow pace= slow rating |
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OW slammed Zaidpour 5 lengths last season which looks fair form at the moment given that Z absolutley loves the muck.
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that's my opinion & I'll be surprised if I'm wrong
Thats usually your way MM. |
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could see this horse trading at very short odds in running in the champion hurdle. will travel like the wrath of god in a fast run race and at 20/1 is tremendous value not withstanding my admiration for hurricane fly.
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