Cheltenham Festival
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Oscars Well - thoughts
Oscars Well - thoughts
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Replies: 72
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judorick, why would you give any significance to a speed figure in a race that was slowly run? most of the time that is all the Topspeed ratings reflect imo- the pace the race was run at ie good pace= good rating, slow pace= slow rating
you've made my point for me the race was slowly run as the rating suggests and therefore it can't have been his best performance not for me anyway, not compared to winning by 5 lengths in Grade 1 and getting 143 Topspeed which is clearly a better effort |
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Not really CCM been wrong plenty of times but I'm pretty sure that H Fly beats Oscars Well by further in the CH on better ground than he did in the Irish Champ Hurdle. We shall see.
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His Neptune performance was imo against better horses,that will do for me,especially as he may well have beaten them.Far more competitive race.I take the point that Zaidpour has been good this season,but then so have ROR,So Young and FL.
Anyway he seems to go on all types of ground,so that bodes well. |
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Up to Oscars wells last run I had him down as yet another national hunt horse with a breathing problem.
In his previous 4 runs he had always weakened or looked onepaced when push came to shove having been apparently travelling well. On sunday he appeared to keep on OK , but this may have been an optical illusion as 1,000 stars was hardly moving and HF trounced him. I wouldn't dispute that he's on an upward curve and will be at his peak in March but I don't like the way he finishes his races off. |
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There may be few runners in the Champion, so it would be folly to be too adamant that OW won't reach a place, but I honestly can't see any reason why he should trouble the principals. He's looked short of speed at the vital time in all his races this season, and just doesn't have the gears. The post that pointed out he's never won a 2 mile hurdle says it all for me. But what a weak Champion it looks, unless Zarkander wins the Betfair pulling double. Nothing has emerged to challenge HF with the remainder much of a muchness.
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Interesting prespective Cyclops - if it weren't for HF, everyone would be raving about how competetive it is. That wouldn't make it a strong race, but would make it interesting and exciting (like the Ryanair often is).
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To be fair, there have been a fair few Champion Hurdles where nothing has emerged to challenge until they actually run the race itself...
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Oscars wells looks to have plenty of pace to me and 2m should be ideal for him. I could see him coming their travelling well then weakening after the last , he may or maynot hold on for a place.
Personally I think there is a chance the race could cut up to a SINGLE FIGURE FIELD. What does everyone else think the size of the field could be ? |
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OW does not have a turn of foot, but he does possess a high cruising speed and obviously stamina aswell, which is why it is imperative he has a strong run race over the distance of 2 miles. He should get that in March with Overrturn in the race and the track will also be more demanding that what he has faced in Ireland this season.
As for the number of runners, I was actually thinking it could be a big field given how competitive it looks but when you go through the runner it may be 9 or 10 ?? HF Grand Zark Bino ROR OW Overrturn Thousand Stars possibly Spirit Son ,Celestial Halo, Starluck. |
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Brampour aswell.
Weld has said Unaccompanied will go to Punchestown. |
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No chance, there will be a field of at least 15 with loads of rags, there almost always is in these. Prize money down to 6th and 6th place paying more than winning the average handicap hurdle! I hope all the main protagonists take part, yes, but there is only 5 maybe 6 that can win it that is entered, them that dont make the race will compete in a handicap, any others will compete in the world or other hurdles race, but cant see no less than 15.
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Overturn 25/1 ew w/out the Fly appeals to me.
At this stage you'd have to say the fly is miles clear, so you'd effectively be getting 25/1 top 4 places. I can see him making the pace and staying on at the end. Has proved this year he can perform to a high level over 2m4f. With no Peddlers Cross in the line up, I don't think Overturn will do so much of the donkey work he did last year. I think last year they ruined any chance he had because he was there to ensure a true gallop for Peddlers Cross and he went off too quick. On the Oscars Well topic, I still think Thousand Stars will reverse the placings of the Irish Champion. |
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I think thousand stars should run in the world hurdle, and im not alone in thinking that, but alas, he probably wont.
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Well - that looks a stonking bet to me.
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Just looked and last price matched on Thousand Stars was 100/1 for the Champion Hurdle - probably a non runner
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(Sorry, meant your Overtun bet looks a cracker)
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Just about to put it on now with VC mate, you've convinced me!!!
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Think one of Zaidpour,Mik D and So Young will run in the CH,with the other 2 in the WH.
No idea which one though,probably depends on ground. |
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MdH and Zaidpour are in the same ownership so will probably be split up.
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makes sense,Zaidpour wants softer going really so maybe hes more likely to run CH.
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Same argument applies to MDH (re ground)and he has run poorly over 3m already. Zaidpour has won over 3m so I think he will go for WH and they will run MDH in the CH.
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Yeh,they do both go on soft,but Mik d did win the Neptune on good/soft.
I also feel that hes running better this season then he was last season when he ran over 3m. But anyway you may well be right,and given the right conditions think they will both be interesting in whatever race they run in. |
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Those that have the time to do sectional times say that MDH is showing a lot of speed in his races so is particularly interesting if they go the 2m route. Zaidpour could still be anything over 3m but seems to lack that bit of toe in his 2m races. Knowing Mullins they will go the other way round and Zaidpour will be outpaced and MDH will weaken :D
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Wellchief, I'd have to take issue with your view of last year's race re Overturn. It was a slow pace - significantly slower than the Supreme - and I think Overturn went too slow, not too fast. I agree, though, that he has a much better chance of making the frame than his odds suggest, certainly more attractive than Oscars Well at around a fifth of the price. My comment about it looking a weak Champion is based on my feeling that, were Oscar Whisky or Thousand Stars definite runners, I feel they'd be amongst the first five favourites, and most probably be placed,despite having been so firmly put in their place last season.
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The handicapped has put OW up a further 3lb for his 2nd in the Irish Champion.
Given the current pattern from his runs this season, i.e improving 3 or 4 lbs after each run, and the prospect of improving a similar amount for better ground, I think it is reasonable to expect OW to run to the high 160's in March. This, on known evidence, is not enough to beat the Hurricane, but it certainly enough to make the frame, and why he is a big player in the w/o Fav market. Imo. |
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"I was delighted with him last Sunday. He also hated the ground and the pace wasn’t as strong as he might like but he still turned around the form with Thousand Stars and Unaccompanied.
He is improving with every run and I would expect him to come on again. He’s a horse that hits top form in spring. It’s next stop Cheltenham and the Champion Hurdle for him now." Fairly positive comments there |
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On the evidence of that last run there would seem little chance of him beating hf,however If we take the trainers word as gospel he does have a sqeak.His festival run 2011 showed he certainly can travel,he tanked along throughout and looked the likely winner for a long way.The pace of the champion may well suit him,although the same can be argued re hf who travelled ominously well in last years renewal.
The ground may well be the key,anything similar to last year and I think he,s a definate player,he certainly showed signs of settling better in that small field,and the very fact he stood his ground should not be under-estimated. Finally there remains the fact that last years champion was slower than the supreme,looking back from 2002 onwards it appears only kachits champion success was slower than the supreme on the same day.The times suggest the novices were either very good,or that the champion was not a vintage affair.Hindsight is a wonderful thing,crossed my mind several times where oscars well would have finnished in last years supreme.Zarkandar re-appearance will add another piece to the puzzle,any progression from last year and he too must be respected. Will certainly watch for the times of the first couple races champion hurdle tuesday,could oscars be the next Hardy and foil the fly??? |
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"I think he ticks all the boxes as he likes good ground, he seems to like Cheltenham and he loves races that are run at a fast pace.
Pretty much what some of us have been saying to be fair. Hes had none of that all season and has still improved his rating throughout this season. I expect his best run yet in March,be interesting to see where that gets him should that happen. I suspect he will be placed. |
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Looks like being Good ground which is what connections have been adamant all year long that he wants. With Celestial Halo and Overturn setting a strong pace OW will have no excuses. Fingers crossed for a big run.
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jessie harrington was saying today that the ground will be perfect for oscars and she is expecting a good run although she dont think he can beat hurricane fly on the irish champion hurdle form .......that may be so but its a horse race and anything can happen and you should never be afraid of one horse ! hurricane fly won the champion hurdle well last year but could it be that he beat a few horses that are better over further in peddlers and oscar whiskey and 1,000 stars who knows but it gives hope to the rest of the feild , can see this fella tanking along and if he can get first run on hurricane fly and some of the shorter priced ones then he could have a few in trouble up the hill , he is around 18/1 on here and that is a decent each way price imo
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I see him as the main threat to H/F. Will be playing him on markets without the favourite. I still think the Fly will win though.
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lets hope he gets a good run - if he wins i will be partying all week lol. backed it for a few quid every week since last years neptune
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lets hope he gets a good run - if he wins i will be partying all week lol. backed it for a few quid every week since last years neptune
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