Oscars Well - thoughts

Agree with you... great chnace of a place. If HF turns up and is 80% or better, he'll win.

But outside of him, I think OW has a fighting chance in a race and conditions that should suit him brilliantly imo. I think he has been over analysed for much of the season. Harrington's horses have been wrong for much of it, and have just come right. Often as simple as that.

I do not get the CH hype that surrounds this horse - never won a 2m hurdle, how many CH winners had never won a 2m hurdle?

And has been beaten out of sight in all 4 runs over 2m this season, will be lucky to finish in the 1st 5/6 imo

yeah i was was encouraged by that run obviously he has his work cut out to beat hurricane fly but i like the way this horse has progressed in his races this year . anything can happen in a race , and the trainer knows how to ready one for the big day , and id say he has a great each way chance think hes about 4s on here to be placed !

Is everyone of the view that he takes his chance in the Champion then ? I thought he'd be more likely to head to the World hurdle.
Hows this for a choice though, take on Hurricane Fly or Big Bucks...

But beat Thousand Stars and Unaccompnaied well enough over 2m today BJG

Were neither of those creible CH horses iyo?

yep oscars well reversed form with both of them ,seems to be steadily coming to hand and should be spot on for chelt !

Thousand Stars was used as a pacemaker and i think Unaccompanied quite cleary never went a yard on the ground


Good ground over 2m at Chelt if the 3 of em turned up - id fancy TS and Unacc to finish in front of him


Game of opinions tho

Don't think there's any doubt Oscars Well is being aimed at the Champion is there? Yes, I think he's got a good place chance. He seems to be improving for every run this season, the yard are now in form and I believe he'll benefit from decent ground and a fast run race (though it's an argument that's been had  afew times on other threads). It's hard to see him beating a fully fit Hurricane Fly.

BJG,
Dont think any of them enjoyed that ground yesterday.HF semed to cope best,but then hes a class act.

Stronts right imo,good pace and decent ground will see him at his best,and that imo puts him in the CH picture.

Been tipping him all season at massive prices (well before Pricewise), though obviously after yesterday there appears no way he can possibly beat the Fly bar injury or a fall.

Great chance of being in the money but I still wish they'd gone chasing this season.

I've had a good piece of the 9/1 w/o HF.

His rating has steadily creeped up with each run this season and im expecting a peak effort in March.

CCM, what do you mean when you say their ''horses were not right''. I've always taken it to mean a bug or sickness in the yard but you have said that of several trainers this season so wonder what you mean being an owner of horses ..

massive fan of him. keep looking back at him in the the neptune and he travelled so well. got there nearly too easy. there is so much differnce from running in bogs in ireland to cheltenham festival ground. i think a fast run 2 miles( overturn hopefully)will be right up his street. he seems to improve as season goes on. he cant beat the fly, can he? but i think has a huge chance of being placed and will run a stormer.

the horse is an out and out mudlark - all of his highest rated performances have come on atrocious going and that is why he ran second yesterday

won't see which way they went in March whether the Fly shows up or not

Tascro

He won a couple of Grade Ones on Soft / Heavy ground in December and February last season and another race in November so he does act on that ground and he doesn't necessarily improve throughout the season

Don't get me wrong, I'm a massive fan too, based on last season's Neptune, and have backed him for both the World Hurdle (for buttons but to a huge price) and for the Champion (prior to Pricewises involvement).

I thought connections should have gone down the WH route and come second to Big Bucks, rather than the CH and come in behing certainly HF plus, arguably, one or two others too. When I saw connections were insisting he was a 2 miler, then I backed him for the CH as, like I said, I'm a fan and he has the class to be competitive whatever he runs in.

His race in the Neptune on decent ground was probably his best performance,given the status of the race,that suggests to me that he is in no way an out and out mudlark.He has form on sh!t ground yes,but his best imo is not.

Harrington believes Oscars Well can be an even bigger force on the sounder surface he is likely to encounter in March.
"I was very happy with his run and he is improving with every run," said the County Kildare handler.
"If you look at his form from last season he did exactly the same. He got beaten first time out and then won his maiden and what was probably a weak Grade One at Navan.
"It wasn't until early February that he really came to himself and it seems to be the same this time around, as he is certainly getting better.
"He didn't like the ground either on Sunday, so it was a very good run to finish second to an incredible horse.

If you don't have form in the mud you'd rarely get a run in Ireland.

Says it all imo

You only need to look at his Official Rating to see he has improved with each run. It aint rocket science, like.

judorick

the horse is an out and out mudlark

Sint. I think stables go through spells when the vast majority of their horses dont quite run as well as they can. I'v seen it for a period at every stable I've ever been involved with.

I dont think the trainers even know the answer themselves, but for whatever reason things dont quite go too well for a period that can last any length of time. With EOG it can be like that for a month or so, or sometimes most of a season. He cant explain why they run a bit flat for a while.

I think Harrington's has been under a  bit of a cloud for much of the first half of the season. Of course there will always be a few horses that win despite this, but right now, most seeming to be running nearer to their best.

Yep I know what you mean about horses and stables not always running at their best etc. And some periods are more productive. I have just always taken the phrase ''not right'' to infer something was wrong .. like a bug or injury for example.

Oscars Well started the season rated 147.

After his seasonal debut he was rated 150, up 3lbs.
After second run he was rated 154, up 4lbs.
After third run he was rated 157, up 3lbs.
After his second to HF he'll go up a couple more, lets say 159.

So, if he improves a similar amount for his next run, and a few more for the conditions which connections have always maintained he wants, then im afraid to say he is going to run a biggun in March. Oh Yes.

I have smelt the coffe, have you??

Oscars Well: He ran the race of his life finishing second to Hurricane Fly. One thing I love about his performances this year is that he is improving with every run and has now reversed the form with Thousand Stars. He will now I hope come on again from that run; he is the type of horse that always comes into top from in the spring of the year. He will head straight to the Champion Hurdle now.

From trainers website.

9/1 at PP's in the w/o HF market is now 13/2.

The softer the ground the better he runs. He wants 2m4+ on heavy ground. Be surprised if he places in the CH has a good cruising speed but when races heat up he gets left behind. The going helped him considerably yesterday.

So how do you explain that his best run was on decent ground at Cheltenham last March??

I think thats a complete myth MM. He has had 9 runs over hurdles... 2 on heavy, 6 on soft and only one on good.

The one on good was almost winning a Championship race at Cheltenham. So how anyone can suggest he doesnt want that ground is completely beyond me. In all honesty, he is probably quite versatile with regards to the ground.

Personally feel that run has been way overhyped in the Neptune. His best runs for me have been on heavy & he will be better over further. Example yesterdays run behind Hurricane Fly has to be way above his run in the Neptune. I would also say his run in the Deloitte was a better run. Just my opinion can clearly run on better ground but I can't see it being a plus especially over 2 miles.

overhyped?? he tanked through that race and if anything he was going too well.
Given that it was the Neptune and contained better opposition than the Deloitte,i think it reasonable to say thats his best run to date.
Of course he can be better over further,but that dont mean he cant run a big race in the CH.
The way he travels suggests to me that a fast paced 2m at Cheltenham on decent ground is right up his street.

I'd expect 1000 stars to beat OW if they faced each other again in the Champion.  He made a really bad mistake 3 out and lost loads of momentum, and I think the better ground would also suit him better in the Champion.

Oscars Well has improved, but 1000 stars 8 length loss to an absolute peak condition HF in last year's Champion is better than anything OW has done imo.

Masterminded, OW has always raced on Soft ground, so clearly his best form will be on it, horses in Ireland dont have much choice.

Why was the Neptune a better race than the Deloitte? He beat Megastar about a length ffs! Zaidpour would beat most of the horses that ran in the Neptune imo & ran in the wrong race. Anyway like I say that's my opinion & I'll be surprised if I'm wrong. Not going to get into pointless debate with backers of the horse it's too repetitive.

He ran agaist what i consider to be better horses in First Lieutenant,Rock on Ruby and So Young,and may well have won but for his error at the last,and that beating of Megastar would have been a lot further had it not been for that error.
No wish for a pointless debate either,is that what we are having?
Thought we were simply discussing our thoughts.Do you expect us all to agree??

So how do you explain that his best run was on decent ground at Cheltenham last March??

that is a matter of opinion, the ratings are bound to be high simply because it is a Grade 1 at the Festival
but it was quite slowly run and Oscars Well got a Topspeed Ratiing of 111 which makes me think it was FAR from his best run - for example he recorded 143 when winning his previous start (won by 5 and half lengths) on heavy going

Just going on the opposition and the fact he may well have beat them.
Yes its a matter of opinion course it is,thats what we are doing on here,but its an opinion with substance when you look at what his Neptune opponents are doing this year.
ROR,SO Young,FL are all running well in their respective races.

but it was quite slowly run and Oscars Well got a Topspeed Ratiing of 111 which makes me think it was FAR from his best run


judorick, why would you give any significance to a speed figure in a race that was slowly run? most of the time that is all the Topspeed ratings reflect imo- the pace the race was run at ie good pace= good rating, slow pace= slow rating

OW slammed Zaidpour 5 lengths last season which looks fair form at the moment given that Z absolutley loves the muck.

that's my opinion & I'll be surprised if I'm wrong

Thats usually your way MM.

could see this horse trading at very short odds in running in the champion hurdle. will travel like the wrath of god in a fast run race and at 20/1 is tremendous value not withstanding my admiration for hurricane fly.

judorick, why would you give any significance to a speed figure in a race that was slowly run? most of the time that is all the Topspeed ratings reflect imo- the pace the race was run at ie good pace= good rating, slow pace= slow rating

you've made my point for me

the race was slowly run as the rating suggests and therefore it can't have been his best performance

not for me anyway, not compared to winning by 5 lengths in Grade 1 and getting 143 Topspeed which is clearly a better effort

Not really CCM been wrong plenty of times but I'm pretty sure that H Fly beats Oscars Well by further in the CH on better ground than he did in the Irish Champ Hurdle. We shall see.

His Neptune performance was imo against better horses,that will do for me,especially as he may well have beaten them.Far more competitive race.I take the point that Zaidpour has been good this season,but then so have ROR,So Young and FL.

Anyway he seems to go on all types of ground,so that bodes well.

Up to Oscars wells last run I had him down as yet another national hunt horse with a breathing problem.
In his previous 4 runs he had always weakened or looked onepaced when push came to shove having been apparently travelling well.  On sunday he appeared to keep on OK , but this may have been an optical
illusion as 1,000 stars was hardly moving and HF trounced him. I wouldn't dispute that he's on an upward
curve and will be at his peak in March but I don't like the way he finishes his races off.

There may be few runners in the Champion, so it would be folly to be too adamant that OW won't reach a place, but I honestly can't see any reason why he should trouble the principals. He's looked short of speed at the vital time in all his races this season, and just doesn't have the gears. The post that pointed out he's never won a 2 mile hurdle says it all for me. But what a weak Champion it looks, unless Zarkander wins the Betfair pulling double. Nothing has emerged to challenge HF with the remainder much of a muchness.

Interesting prespective Cyclops - if it weren't for HF, everyone would be raving about how competetive it is. That wouldn't make it a strong race, but would make it interesting and exciting (like the Ryanair often is).

To be fair, there have been a fair few Champion Hurdles where nothing has emerged to challenge until they actually run the race itself...

Oscars wells looks to have plenty of pace to me and 2m should be ideal for him. I could see him coming their travelling well then weakening after the last , he may or maynot hold on for a place.
Personally I think there is a chance the race could cut up to a SINGLE FIGURE FIELD. What does everyone
else think the size of the field could be ?

OW does not have a turn of foot, but he does possess a high cruising speed and obviously stamina aswell, which is why it is imperative he has a strong run race over the distance of 2 miles. He should get that in March with Overrturn in the race and the track will also be more demanding that what he has faced in Ireland this season.

As for the number of runners, I was actually thinking it could be a big field given how competitive it looks but when you go through the runner it may be 9 or 10 ??

HF
Grand
Zark
Bino
ROR
OW
Overrturn
Thousand Stars

possibly Spirit Son ,Celestial Halo, Starluck.

Brampour aswell.

Weld has said Unaccompanied will go to Punchestown.

No chance, there will be a field of at least 15 with loads of rags, there almost always is in these. Prize money down to 6th and 6th place paying more than winning the average handicap hurdle! I hope all the main protagonists take part, yes, but there is only 5 maybe 6 that can win it that is entered, them that dont make the race will compete in a handicap, any others will compete in the world or other hurdles race, but cant see no less than 15.

Overturn 25/1 ew w/out the Fly appeals to me.

At this stage you'd have to say the fly is miles clear, so you'd effectively be getting 25/1 top 4 places.

I can see him making the pace and staying on at the end.  Has proved this year he can perform to a high level over 2m4f.

With no Peddlers Cross in the line up, I don't think Overturn will do so much of the donkey work he did last year.  I think last year they ruined any chance he had because he was there to ensure a true gallop for Peddlers Cross and he went off too quick.

On the Oscars Well topic, I still think Thousand Stars will reverse the placings of the Irish Champion.

I think thousand stars should run in the world hurdle, and im not alone in thinking that, but alas, he probably wont.

Well - that looks a stonking bet to me.

Just looked and last price matched on Thousand Stars was 100/1 for the Champion Hurdle - probably a non runner

(Sorry, meant your Overtun bet looks a cracker)

Just about to put it on now with VC mate, you've convinced me!!!

Think one of Zaidpour,Mik D and So Young will run in the CH,with the other 2 in the WH.
No idea which one though,probably depends on ground.

MdH and Zaidpour are in the same ownership so will probably be split up.

makes sense,Zaidpour wants softer going really so maybe hes more likely to run CH.

Same argument applies to MDH (re ground)and he has run poorly over 3m already.  Zaidpour has won over 3m so I think he will go for WH and they will run MDH in the CH.

Yeh,they do both go on soft,but Mik d did win the Neptune on good/soft.
I also feel that hes running better this season then he was last season when he ran over 3m.
But anyway you may well be right,and given the right conditions think they will both be interesting in whatever race they run in.

Those that have the time to do sectional times say that MDH is showing a lot of speed in his races so is particularly interesting if they go the 2m route.  Zaidpour could still be anything over 3m but seems to lack that bit of toe in his 2m races.  Knowing Mullins they will go the other way round and Zaidpour will be outpaced and MDH will weaken :D

Wellchief, I'd have to take issue with your view of last year's race re Overturn. It was a slow pace - significantly slower than the Supreme - and I think Overturn went too slow, not too fast. I agree, though, that he has a much better chance of making the frame than his odds suggest, certainly more attractive than Oscars Well at around a fifth of the price. My comment about it looking a weak Champion is based on my feeling that, were Oscar Whisky or Thousand Stars definite runners, I feel they'd be amongst the first five favourites, and most probably be placed,despite having been so firmly put in their place last season.

The handicapped has put OW up a further 3lb for his 2nd in the Irish Champion.

Given the current pattern from his runs this season, i.e improving 3 or 4 lbs after each run, and the prospect of improving a similar amount for better ground, I think it is reasonable to expect OW to run to the high 160's in March. This, on known evidence, is not enough to beat the Hurricane, but it certainly enough to make the frame, and why he is a big player in the w/o Fav market.

Imo.

"I was delighted with him last Sunday. He also hated the ground and the pace wasn’t as strong as he might like but he still turned around the form with Thousand Stars and Unaccompanied.

He is improving with every run and I would expect him to come on again. He’s a horse that hits top form in spring. It’s next stop Cheltenham and the Champion Hurdle for him now."

Fairly positive comments there

On the evidence of that last run there would seem little chance of him beating hf,however If we take the trainers word as gospel he does have a sqeak.His festival run 2011 showed he certainly can travel,he tanked along throughout and looked the likely winner for a long way.The pace  of the champion may well suit him,although the same can be argued re hf who travelled ominously well in last years renewal.

The ground may well be the key,anything similar to last year and I think he,s a definate player,he certainly showed signs of settling better in that small field,and the very fact he stood his ground should not be under-estimated.

Finally there remains the fact that last years champion was slower than the supreme,looking back from 2002 onwards it appears only kachits champion success was slower than the supreme on the same day.The times suggest the novices were either very good,or that the champion was not a vintage affair.Hindsight is a wonderful thing,crossed my mind several times where oscars well would have finnished in last years supreme.Zarkandar re-appearance will add another piece to the puzzle,any progression from last year and he too must be respected.

Will certainly watch for the times of the first couple races champion hurdle tuesday,could oscars be the next Hardy and foil the fly???

"I think he ticks all the boxes as he likes good ground, he seems to like Cheltenham and he loves races that are run at a fast pace.

Pretty much what some of us have been saying to be fair.

Hes had none of that all season and has still improved his rating throughout this season.
I expect his best run yet in March,be interesting to see where that gets him should that happen.
I suspect he will be placed.

Looks like being Good ground which is what connections have been adamant all year long that he wants. With Celestial Halo and Overturn setting a strong pace OW will have no excuses. Fingers crossed for a big run.

jessie harrington was saying today that the ground will be perfect for oscars and she is expecting a good run although she dont think he can beat hurricane fly on the irish champion hurdle form .......that may be so but its a horse race and anything can happen and you should never be afraid of one horse ! hurricane fly won the champion hurdle well last year but could it be that he beat a few horses that are better over further in peddlers and oscar whiskey and 1,000 stars   who knows but it gives hope to the rest of the feild , can see this fella tanking along and if he can get first run on hurricane fly and some of the shorter priced ones then he could have a few in trouble up the hill , he is around 18/1 on here and that is a decent  each way price imo

I see him as the main threat to H/F. Will be playing him on markets without the favourite. I still think the Fly will win though.

lets hope he gets a good run - if he wins i will be partying all week lol. backed it for a few quid every week since last years neptune

lets hope he gets a good run - if he wins i will be partying all week lol. backed it for a few quid every week since last years neptune