Cheltenham Festival
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Grands Crus not going for Argento but could still go Gold?
Grands Crus not going for Argento but could still go Gold?
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Feltham winners didn't turn out to be a brilliant bunch did they? Looking at the list, Long Run's class. Gloria Victis and See More Indians might have been, who knows? But there's nothing else there that screams legend. Maybe that's why they weren't so successful at the Festival?
Anyway Bland - I haven't backed Grands Crus for either race and don't expect to, but will be watching him with great interest. |
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Just looked through the Feltham winners on judo's wiki-link and it is pretty clear why it is a poor trial. The winners, with very few exceptions, simply aren't very good!
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stront beat me to it lol
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Sorry to go off topic but I just have to say that when you approach a meeting like the Cheltenham Festival from a trends point of view it is my experience that you need to look at the trends as providing an edge across the whole 27 races - and not necessarily in an individual race - if you see what I mean. I am looking to find value by finding under priced and over priced runners and that is how I look at the trends - everything relative to the price and looking to profit in the long run
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That's sensible Judo. Some races are very strong on trends - e.g. the Will Hill Hcap and the Gold Cup.n On the other hand some of the novice races are weaker (I think because nearly all the runners hit all all the major trends). Others are new or have had conditions changed so there's no menaingful data (e.g. Jewson, 2 1/2 m nov hcap, fred Winter, Martin Pipe, NH Chase (perhaps)).
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Agree. Some very logical trends go across groups of races, lto winners in handicaps is one. Novice hurdlers proven winners in fields of 15+ another. As long as there is logic there, my advics is to follow the logic though rather than being hard and fast. An unlucky loser lto might be as good as a lto winner for example(see Spirit River?)
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the other thing I keep in mind is that when approaching an individual race, like the RSA Chase, I am looking to make a profit in the long run over the next 10, 20, 30 editions of that race - and when there is a powerful negative against a short priced runner then in the long run it will pay me to pay attention to that strong trend... and that's why I will oppose short priced 5 year olds in the CH and so on because it is proven that they make a significant level stakes loss over many Festivals
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The key for me is working out the important trends and following the logic. I used to follow trends long before they became trendy. Had a set of rules for the National, one of them was that the winner had always won a chase over 3m 2f or further. Then along came Rough Quest and I reasoned that a 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup was as good as a win. Was a cathartic moment.
I regard 5yo in CH a false trend by the way, the important trend is to be battle hardened (few 5yo are) - last 2 decades Champion Hurdlers all had at least 6 wins under rules and at least 15 runs, whatever their age. |
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Apologies for also going slightly off topic here, but for people using the form from last year aka big bucks really need to be absolutely sure, because there is one question niggling me as to how he managed to get so close, has BB ever won a race by a wide margin??? (except some egg and spoon race at a wet newbury on heavy ground etc)
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He's probably won his last 2 by his biggest margins (Ascot and the Cleeve)?
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Just on the subject of feltham winners having a poor record in the RSA...
Placed horses in the Feltham however have a very good record in the RSA with maybe the sharp track not suiting them entirely and Cheltenham being an totally different proposition... This trend I find useful as it says to me that plenty of trainers still send there best Novice to the Feltham despite the sharp track not playing to there strengths... |
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I think so stront, though couldnt be absolutely certain without looking! I do no one thing though, plenty of dosh has been won by me backing under in the distances when BB has been running over the past couple of years!
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The key for me is working out the important trends and following the logic
This applies to whatever you consider about a race or a horse. What you are talking about is "significance" and it is, in my opinion, the single most powerful tool in the punters armoury. It can be anything from a market move, a speed figure, a jockey booking, a stat or trend or anything really and I am constantly looking for significance |
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After reading all this some very good points I honestly believe that this horse will lead and and destroy the rsa field come march and then be in a very solid position come next year for the gold cup. Pipe would have no excuses to make then come march and would see this as a much easier option to win the rsa, if he went to gold cup with the lack of experience he could end up way down the field come the last fence with Kauto and Long Run miles clear. I know the stats situation with Feltham chase but not bothered believe this horse is has a great build it up for it and the 11/4 is a nice price.
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One thing that is certainly certain Luke and that is he won't lead...that is a certainty...
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Just a quick point, and not a particularly important one, but has anyone else noticed the astonishing similarity in the profiles of Grands Crus now and Punchestowns 2 years ago? Both French bred 7yos who's class and stamina credentials are based on running Big Bucks to 1.75 lengths in the World Hurdle but both beaten further than that by that horse on another occasion. GC winner of a Grade 2 3m hurdle, Punchestowns slightly ahead by winning a 25f Grade 1. Both looking surprisingly speedy over fences. Just some food for thought.
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GC looks a better jumper than Punch was at same stage though.
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thieves
The only thing I will say to that argument as a punchestowns follower (who could of made me rich - s*d) is Punchestowns although of similar profile was never as fluent at his fences as this fellow, eluded to by budd... He certainly looks a natural and also will go to Cheltenham a course winner over fences... |
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Yes see the difference, that's why I said not particularly important. Punchestowns was supposed to win 5 gold cups though as I remember it ;)
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yes shame for the horse and his followers...was injured early in the RSA i would say and never went a yard...the horse still hurts as much as when the great filly six perfections was given the ride from hell by the idiot Thulliez in the 1000 Guinnneas....
much pain felt, as both would of won the shop or at least shares in one  |