Cheltenham Festival
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Surely if they had any pretentions of a novice chaser going for the Gold Cup their horse needs to be getting involved in a competitive trial at Cheltenham outside of novice company?
The horse's welfare is obviously not being considered if he is going to be asked to trot around an uncompetitive novice chase at way below Championship pace then asked to go for the most competitive staying chase there is.
Others with more experience have tried and paid the price it seems they never learn.
The horse's welfare is obviously not being considered if he is going to be asked to trot around an uncompetitive novice chase at way below Championship pace then asked to go for the most competitive staying chase there is.
Others with more experience have tried and paid the price it seems they never learn.
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Surprised at the Racing Posts's irresponsible reporting on this I would have thought they at least might expect this or are they pleasing their bookie pay masters by getting a lot of cash in on a non runner with their lead front page articles?
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I would be absolutely flabbergasted if they went for Gold with this horse. Whether they have been playing kidology to get a better price for RSA I don't know but even if he were to take the bizarre step of going out of novice company the Ryanair would be the logical race.
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I agree eternal, but I expect him to remain entered in the Gold Cup, possibly including at the final declarations in case something happens (like he runs out at the first in the RSA).
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He really needs more experience amongst experienced chasers. We saw how another top placed staying hurdler took chunks out of fences last season, unsurprisingly fences are vastly different as we have seen with many decent hurdlers recently, Celestial Halo also, let alone in the past. Disgrace if they go for the Gold Cup without giving the horse a chance to learn to jump at pace, an undulating track also at Cheltenham he wouldnt know what hit him.
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This could be another case of uninformed owner wants to go for Gold Cup when the horse isnt prepared for it. Perhaps the horse could demand the owner takes on a similar challenge where their life might be at risk. This happens every year, last year it was Starluck, ffs the Racing Post seem to be behind this project are their 12 year olds working there or people who look at the history of novices in the race.
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I don't think GC stays but if connections believes it will it was absolutely the correct decision not to run the Argento if they want to maximise his chances in the Gold Cup.
1 - The ground on Sat is most likely softer than at festival so more emphasis on stamina therefore GC was always gonna have a hard race. 2 - Argento always likely to be strongly run with MC, LJ, TS in race. 3 - If the Gold Cup is the target the Pipe would not have had him wound up fully for this so why expose him against horses for which this was a clear target. It would just bottom the horse out unnecessarily. The only thing they might have achieved is finding out he don't stay in softer ground, when not 100%. I think Pipe is right to have the horse fresh and ready to run for its life for whatever target they choose. IMO he won't stay the last 2f of the Gold Cup with Midnight Chase, Kauto and possibly Carruthers forcing a strong pace but Pipe's horses can and do stay further than expected when he winds them up silly so I could be wrong. |
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I'd suspect that peoples financial position on certain races is going to influence their stance on this subject
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Betting preview to National Hunt's blue riband....
http://starbets.ie/horse-racing/quito-can-get-into-cheltenham-gold-cup-mix/ |
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josh apiafi @joshapiafi Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
No definitive Y/N fr Rodger on Grand Crus, but if I was a betting man(and I've been known to have a dabble) I'd say Gold Cup is a solid fav! |
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I don't care how many threads you posted this in, it's still a bad idea. This horse could win at least one Gold Cup but he'll have a much better chance next year as a seasoned campaigner than he will this year as a raw novice.
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Agree, it's a horrible idea. Where this theory has come from that the Gold Cup is a less brutal race than the RSA is completely beyond me? Why do people think there have been so few Gold Cup winners successfully defend their crown over the years? Even the exceptions to this kind of prove the rule, Best Mate was incredibly lightly raced as well as a bit lucky to win 3 of them and before that L'Escargot was possibly the toughest horse ever going on to win and place in Grand Nationals v Red Rum. If they think their horse is too soft for the RSA then go for the Jewson!
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Totally agree TLU. Spot on.
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Sometimes even the most intelligent man can't be reasoned with irrespective of the evidence you put before him if he has made his mind up. The Gold Cup is a far more brutal race than the RSA and the best of the seasoned campaigners would eat nearly any novice for breakfast. Stating the obvious but that is the point of having a novice campaign. Some owners won't be told. Wasn't it Iris Gift that was ruined a few years back by an owner determined to turn him into a chaser? Grands Cru could given time be very special. Still they pay the money and if they want to take the risk then that is their prerogative but please no crocodile tears if it goes pear shaped. At least Goloria Victis had won a big open handicap prior to taking its shot in a gold cup.
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I would back Grand Crus at 5/2 NRNB in the Ryanair, think trip is absolutely perfect for him - not entered though,more prestigious than RSA, less gruelling than RSA or Gold Cup and very winnable, then find out next season if he is gonna stay
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The Ryannair is a good race this year though,and i would want more than 5/2,a lot more.
Distance makes sense,and as hes a novice theres a race for him-the Jewson. |
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and in any case the yard seem to be targeting Great Endeavour at the Ryan Air so it has to be doubtful they would take him on with their own runner
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If his next race throws up stamina doubts then the Ryanair is his only option as he isn't entered in the Jewson and there is a supplementary stage for the Ryanair. It is a hot race this year but he would surely have more chance in it than in the Gold Cup!
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seriously the RyanAir is not on the radar
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Nor should it be, he should be in the Jewson but he isn't!
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surprised they did not enter in the jewson to be honest.
RSA for me. |
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Many will not care about the trend but there is no doubting it is a powerful one - the last 17 Feltham Case winners to run in the RSA have all been beaten which would worry me if I was going to back him now
different story if you are on at fancy prices of course |
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Quite right Judorick, many good horses have tried and failed to overturn that stat, Long Run for one. Horses that where "also rans" in the Feltham have a decent record though which probably has more to do with the different natures of the tracks than anything else.
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What's the record of Feltham winners in the Gold Cup stats fans?
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Reynoldstown winners had a horrible record to until Alberta's managed to win both. Though how Mr Mulligan contrived to lose the RSA is still a mystery to me and surely Drumadowney would have gone very close in the RSA if he hadn't gone for the Gold Cup instead where he was a very game and close 4th.
Re: the Feltham - as well as the very different tracks, another theory is that it is hard for horses to peak twice in the season and the Feltham takes a lot of winning. Not sure about that one as more experienced horses seem to be able to cope with the King George and CGC! But then they probably wouldn't need a race inbetween whereas a long lay off can be more disadvantageous for novices. I guess Feltham winners heading to RSA are damned if they run again and damned if they don't? |
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I think Long Run is the only Feltham winner to win the Gold Cup?
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Feltham Chase winners
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feltham_Novices'_Chase There is only one on there that I can see went on to win the Gold Cup and that was Long Run (unless anyone knows better) and I don't think many have tried the GC in their novice year |
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*too
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As I thought. So the Feltham stat isn't much of a help in deciding whether GC should go for the RSA or the Gold Cup. However, if a horse can't win the RSA, it seems unlikley to win the Gold Cup that year.
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it is often very difficult to explain why trends are as they are and I can't explain this one either
but from a punting point of view, which is where I am always looking from, the long term trend is strong enough for me to believe it especially when the horse trying to overcome it is 5/2 or something (as I said earlier if you have fancy ante post prices then it is different) |
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To be fair Strontium l don't think many trainers would use the Feltham as a stepping stone to the Gold Cup that same season. How many novices can you think of that have ran in the Gold Cup in their novice season? lt is used as a stepping stone towards the RSA regularly, it just isn't a good pointer for punters if your wanting to back the winner of the Feltham in the RSA.
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I mentioned one already, Drumadowney the other obvious one won the Feltham and died in the Gold Cup.
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However, a trend is much more convincing if it's straightforward to rationalise. People slag off Grand National trends followers but the trends basically breaak down to wanting a horse that's fit, experienced, in reasonable form, hasn't had too hard a season, will stay, and has enough class to win the race. There's no magic there - it's basically just taking a statistical view of standard form analysis.
In contrast, saying the horse that wins the Feltham never wins the RSA is harder to explain. It's also, by definition, a very small sample. It could be what's been stated above - it's hard for a novice to peak twice, diffferent demands of the tracks. Maybe winning a tough race like the Feltham takes a lot out of novices. But on the other hand, the King George is the very best trial for the Gold Cup and many Gold Cup winners are second season chasers. Overall, stats like the Feltham one are things I keep in mind, but wouldn't be decisive for me. |
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just watched the Feltham and I was struck by how badly Bobs Worth jumped - lost momentum at virtually every fence and was never really happy at any stage. Was it the going, right handed track, pace of race? Deffo something he didn't like and he can do much better
will be keeping an eye on that one |
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Bland- fair enough, but this thread is about which race Grands Crus should go for. And I'd stand by my point that if, for some reason, Feltham winners struggle to win the RSA they'd probably have more difficulty winning the Gold Cup in their novice season. I was being facetious above - I know full well not enough Feltham winners have tried in a Gold Cup to produce any meaningful stats (and for good reason).
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Totally agree that the horse should go in the RSA and the Gold Cup should be dismissed unless people think Silviniaco Conti could also be considered because he was not that far behind. They would also have the option of the Jewson or even the Arkle but given the way he has been campaigned the 3 miler looks the race
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Not entered in the Jewson or Arkle and there's no supplementary stage.
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l agree Strontium, you have to apply common sense too when using stats but l do feel that there are some stats that are very strong when it comes to Festival races that are constantly backed up year on year. This one for exmaple, no l can't explain why it keeps coming back up, but the fact that 16 previous winners have all been beaten is pretty conclusive to me. Especially when you consider that there can only be 1 qualifier a year.
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Yes Strontium we kind of got side tracked from the original question didn't we? Personally for me if he is to go out of novice company l think he should be in the Champion Chase as it is so weak and he's obviously not short of pace. l think he'll get found out for stamina in either of the races that connections are looking at running him in.
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so weak??
SE and BZ to beat??? |