Cheltenham Festival
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any views !
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At least 3 - Hasn't seen a racecourse in nearly 9 months. Hasn't been pleasing at home. Will be lightly cooked at the festival and got better with lots of racing last season.
However, maybe too good anyway! Ask me again next Sunday. |
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yeah was thinking along similar lines stront ..beat roughly the same horses a few times in small fields in ireland ,then beat peddlers (possibly better over further ,oscar almost certainly better over further and 1,000stars also needs further ,decent enough performance at punchestown after but think he is vulnerable this time what with the hold ups he has had,in and against some up and comers .
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One has disappeared Spirit Son, Zarkander not run this season also ,just leaves Grandouet as the only danger imo of your so called up and comers, and we know 5 year old records in Champion Hurdle not too good. Hurricane Fly wins if coming through next w-end sound end of story.
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Agree to some extent with Foyle's that the main **** would be that he has been off the track for over 9 months. However the noises have been much more positive from Mullins recently. I can't have the champion field being much better than last year's especially with Zarkander, 3rd spot ante-post without a run. Thought Peddler's cross was a very fair second last year and was a shame they decided to go chasing as I was not one who was convinced he needed further.
Anwyay back to HF, on the rating's he has got a fair amount in hand, if he looks like anything like the horse who hammered a high class field in the Radobank or Cheltenham last year then he will be incredibly difficult to beat. How many horses in the CH field are going to be able to post a 170+ figure. |
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 WEAKEST CHAMPION HURDLE IN YEARS IMO. |
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Only one (pretty fundamental one though)
His ability to get to Cheltenham in mid-March |
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Newnamix.
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Apparently has leg problem and not sound every day.It depends what day he is sound
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NO
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Well the question will be anwered on Sunday,THE FLY really cant be beat if his right thats why mr mullins is taking no chances in his prep this year..
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3/1 to win on Sunday and CH with PP, for those who want to take a leap of faith !
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If HF can beat Unaccompanied giving her 9lbs on Sunday, he will win the CH. Biggest challenges will be the aforementioned mare, Binocular and Rock on Ruby IMO. I don't see Big Zeb in the shake up.
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Big Zeb??
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Haha, sorry. Brain freeze - Grandouet.
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eating ice cream Glossy?
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Drinking merlot - even worse!
Was browsing QM odds at the time. Long day! |
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brain freeze - ice cream, get it?
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I got it.
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This Fella is just so good...nothing can beat him just himself
 . If he gets there in on the day he is 1/2 shot. |
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If he turns up as a 1/3 shot, I'll be laying like a man possessed!
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*1/2
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will be 8/13 come the day as ruby said when he was 11/4 that he wish jockeys could bet....take the hint
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not for me, ive just lumped on binocular at 12\1 on here, fair price IMO ,still each to their own,you pays your money and takes your chance
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For me his last 2 runs were easily his best and both were run on Good ground. If it rains a lot in the
run up to the Tuesday and becomes testing plus if a decent pace looks likely, I think he's vulnernable. The horse I would oppose him with under these conditions is Oscar Whisky. The chances are these conditions won't arise but if they do and Oscar Whiskey takes part I'll be ready. |
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It is all about opinions but seeing as he beat Solwhit reasonably comfortably over two and a half on soft ground in last years Hatton I don't think soft ground or lack of stamina will find the horse out. If it came up genuinely good and he bounced back to his best then Binocular may give him a run for his money in my view.
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In the Hattons Grace they went no great gallop and it turned into a bit of a sprint finish and HF did them
for toe. |
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Bino will need all the 'treatments' his trainer can think of to win another CH. 2010 CH was rubbish - Khyber Kim 2nd, Zaynar 3rd and 1st & 2nd favs didn't give their running !
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Yes 2010 Ch Hur was rubbish. Apart from Celestial Halos wins this year the other runners hardly won a hurdle race between them
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Fair points but I have rarely seen a champion hurdle winner still pulling for his head going to two out. I also remember him destroying Celestial Halo at Ascot.
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^ That Ascot performance was something else, I agree, but it was a long time ago now.
I still rate him very highly and feel his talent means he should never be sent off at 12-1 in any race. The thing with him is that he clearly has a few issues in terms of health and while this makes it unlikely that he'll be truly 100% again, it also means he could theoretically reach those heights if things do magically fall into place in terms of his physiology. It's not like he is gone at the game or ever had a serious injury that has left its mark. For that reason he is a dangerous one to lay at big prices. I for one would love to see him win another Champion. |
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Not being party to his history with niggles and other troubles but I have always felt the horse is more straight forward than he is made out to be. He needs certain clearly defined criteria to be met to show his absolute best. He needs a searching gallop, decent ground and a stiff two miles. He doesn't usually get all these conditions but lets not forget he has a damned fine record at the festival and not always with ideal ground conditions.
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He does indeed,always ran well at the festival.
Got him e/w at 16,and the way the race is panning out i can see him placing,and if HF aint on his game he could win the race. |
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I had a speculative bet on Overturn before his last 2 defeats but still think he might be a big factor if he benefits from a break and gets good fast ground. Can't see Hurricane Fly getting beaten if he is within 5lb of last years run though.
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Tinkler - my view is that HF's last 2 runs were his best because he improved for a lot of racing last season, not because he is improving per se. I guess we'll see on Sunday!
As for Bino, he was magnificent in the Jan 2011 running of the Christmas Hurdle but I've been very disappointed with him since. He doesn't look the same horse. |
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Strontium - your views on HF below don't marry with his trainers. Listen to this very interesting interview (posted by Anaglogs on another thread) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlgUgrayKyw&feature=plcp&context=C34995fdUDOEgsToPDskIdgA6eU18P06pcoN0SmtjP
Would also take from this that HF will be pretty straight this weekend |
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I always believe everything Willie Mullins says.
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Hurricane Fly has always shown such natural ability that I would believe Mullins. Don't forget he turned up at Punchestown the year before last and impressively beat a decent field having not run for 5 or 6 months
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As I said, "I guess we'll see on Sunday". You could well be right, but I see no reason why I should take it for granted.
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