It was the season before

yep, he was also conceding 10lb to the winner and **** spent the previous racing being stretchered off the track. Had he not been riding Menorah next up he would have almost certainly have stood down for the day. THE worst ride he has ever given a horse, but understandable in the circs.

Seeing the posts here, I will repeat what I said on the Minsk thread that I saw no evidence as to why Sadler's Risk will reverse form with Baby Mix.

SR may have been keen for the 1st furlong but after that settled really well, whereas BM imo was always wanting to go a stride quicker and pulled himself to the front. SR had the whole straight to pick off BM and failed to do so and as well as the weight concession, I believe BM had a lot more in hand.

In addition there is talk that Cheltenham will suit SR better than as the flat track was against him. Look back at his flat form and his worst runs were at Newmarket and Goodwood. He may well improve at Cheltenham bit I simply don't see it. Though I have a financial interest in BM, I'd like to think I would draw the same conclusions anyway.

Moving on though I do want to have another string in this race. Grumeti is an obvious one and is a really serios threat but the other bet I have struck is based mostly on price.

On a line through Ifyouletmefinish, I cannot for the life of me see why Urbain de Sivola is 25s with B0yles. It may leave him a little still to find with Grumeti and to a lesser extent Pearl Swan, but this horse is NH bred and so is more entitled to improve. He beat Ranjaan 10l off levels yet that horse is still shorter in the betting and whilst that was Ranjaan's debut over hurdles,  he still was a far more experienced racehorse.

I may be completely wide of the mark for this one and there is good reason he is this price - if there has been a reported problem then break it to me gently.

Think i'll side with Grumeti in the end; he's not really done anything wrong and I'd trust him most to run his race...whether that's going to be good enough or not I can't be sure, but that's why he's not an Even money favourite!

I agree with Roo and have topped up at the remaining 25/1. Yes the ground may be an issue by Friday but NW could hardly have been more bullish in his post race interview stating this was definitely the target. He also made the point about running in a prep so near to the festival which implied to me it was far from fully wound up, a view emphasised by the fact that he didn't seem to see his race out with the same strength as had been the case at Newbury. Not a whole lot between him, Grumeti and Pearl based on their respective runs against the Hobbs horse (who is the sort that could creep into a place under the radar, rather like Snap Tie from the same stable a couple of years ago).

chaps,on second thoughts, have decided to have a saver on him at 25/1 as well. You can make a case for him on the weights and measures of the form, he is entitled to improve for his last run where he had not run for over 80 days and Nick Williams is an excellent target trainer. I do believe he needs some cut in the ground but at the prices I dont mind taking the risk. Grumeti my main bet though.

Minsk - OUT - throat infection. Being kept for a novice next year.

You only have to look at him to see he isn't straightforward but if he hadn't 'run' the second time at Cheltenham he would be clear favourite on the other two runs.

Has Nicholls said anything about Dildar, shouldn't think he will run on his lack luster display, save for another day (if he is good enough!)

Roobuck, in that case I expect you are right.

Nicholls said he was impressed with DB but he looked green and will probably got to Aintree as the Triumph will come too soon.

Thanks for that lads,dont know about it been too soon,
Zarkandar made debut same time last year,anyway,where ever he turns up next he'll be hard to beat imo

Or perhaps DB is only OK and Grumeti only ran a mediocre trial? Don't necessarily believe that but just a different way of looking at the race

stront,he beat him easily enough,but Ruby didnt really get stuck into his mount,
gave him a lovely introduction,he'll have learnt a lot from that,
i think he'll make a smashing hurdler

I'm interested in Pearl Swan at the moment and maybe also Balder Succes if he runs. Pearl Swan gave Grumeti 3lbs and a beating at Cheltenham (before having the race taken away by the stewards), and no reason to believe he won't have a lot of improvement in him.

Snaff, I was om Pearl Swan on the day and was gutted.....but after watching it again I have to agree with the stewards.  It could have gone either way but Grumeti was bumped twice when a short head in front and lost by a short head....right decision.  However the positives for Pearl Swan are that he gave weight away and he lost ground by hanging to the right when he bumped into Grumeti.  The positives were that Grumeti kept his position when Hollow Tree tried to extend them and Pearl Swan couldn't match that...but he did stay on so I think he will get further next year.  The faster pace may catch Pearl out in the 3rd quarter if the same happens again so it could be one of those ones to wait til he drops back and then place your bet at a bigger price to lay when he starts coming up the hill at shorter.....just an opinion.

Anyone who think Pearl Swan should have kept the race could not have seen the head on view!

Having seen sint's nod about Alan King as leading trainer, might now also have Grumeti and Balder Succes running for me depending on earlier results

Im not knocking his form, it stands up to close scrutiny and there is not much between most of these.

I just think when a horse hangs like he did and rubs shoulders with his opponent on the run-in twice then for me he impeded Grumeti and would not have won without doing so,imo. It's very rare for stewards to reverse results as they do usually favour the winner but I dont think they had any choice in this one.

Yes Solving. Im already on Grumtei at 10/1 as posted on here previously but when you look through UDS form, even from the run at Chepstow when he made a terrible blunder at the last flight, he still comes out pretty well. I took the remaining 25 the other day but have now had some more at 20/1.

agree about Urbain de sivola, he has been my only bet so far in the triumph

That's a very valid point OTS. But you could counter that with the fact it was IYLMF's first run also. Whereas when UDS & IYLMF met it was UDS's fourth run & IYLMF's third run. Add to that when PS & G met (dead heat in all but name?) it was PS's second run & G's third. Truth is for me it's very hard to separate these three & I have a horrible feeling it may come down to course experience which of course puts Grumeti as favourite which is exactly what he is. I hope you don't think I'm trying to be smart cos I know both yourself & Sint have forgotten more than I'll ever know & that's why I'm on here as both your inputs are an edge for me.