Cheltenham Festival
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The Triumph Hurdle
The Triumph Hurdle
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At no point will Pearl Swan have the best form in the book, even if Grumeti (who will win the Triumph) wins by 10 hard held tomorrow. No-one can seem to see that that trial is a massive load of bollocks for form. Grumeti 10lb+ better than that. You can all record this message and come back to it about 1.40 on the 16/03/2012 if you wish.
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Adonis today, been such a strong trial for the Triumoh in recent years, with the last two winners scring the double.
I've had a specualtive punt on Une Artiste today and in a double for the Triumph each-way, but Grumeti my main bet as it stands. GL all. |
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PFNs interview after Pearl Swan live on RUK was very interesting. He seemed very surprised his horse had won and was in a bit of a fluster when Nick Luck interviewed him. His quotes about testing him for the Fred Winter suggest to me a plan has back fired somewhat.
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Dodging Bullets and Dildar today, should be very instructive as to which is Nicholls' main Triumph hope. Think Dildar has to be backed today.
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Regular fires - I doubt they'll pay out on your eachway double wrt Une Artiste for today and the Triumph. Todays result directly effects the odds of Une Artiste in the Triumph.
The bookies have a name for this type of bet but the name escapes me at the moment! |
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Related contingency
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I think Celebrity Sevi is a massive price in this (66s). His hurdles debut was inconclusive, held up and wide, albeit in a Grade 2. He did trade odds on at one point and i think it's fair to say the jockey wasn't hard on him. His flat form bears the closest scrutiny (on a par with Minsk)as does his breeding, his mother has also thrown Galileo's Choice, the Supreme fav. A good run today and Weld will hopefully put him on the ferry next month.
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normally I'd agree but there's a couple of bookies that allow this. Some don't even let you get past the betslip stage. A friend of mine did this with Zarkandar last year and won a couple of G's.
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In that case - good luck!
I'm hoping Minsk lives up to the hype!! |
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Triumph hurdle = God only knows
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Indeed. More clues in the Dovecote later with any luck.
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Big compliments so far today to the form of Grumeti, Pearl Swan, Hissabaat (sp?) and Shadow Catcher. Those 4 plus Ranjaan would make up a persuasive short list. So let's see how far Grumeti can get beat and bugger that plan up
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LOL
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How do you work that out? Baby Mix clearly ran no race at all last time so that formline is completely unreliable. Sportsmaster beat Hisabaat but then was trounced by the same horse next time albeit under a dreadful ride from AP. This race is a complete minefield in that nothing is that much better than the rest and it is not inconceivable that this could be another 66/1 year - just a case of who turns up best on the day. A bookmakers benefit.
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Happy with my selection of Shadow Catcher - 20/1 looks a great price.
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Brave to have a decent bet on this.
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Shadow Catcher the one to take for me from the Irish race, will improve for the experience.
Babymix veered and lost ground last time when already beaten the RPR of 122 was 8lb below his debut but that could be down to the veering rather than "not running his race." Has recovered to a 130ish again today beating Sadlers (prev RPR 124). |
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Big price winner coming up. Minsk favourite before today's run says it all and I wouldn't rush to back the Adonis runners as that race didn't look up to its usual standard.
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Grumeti & possibly Pearl Swan are the ones on form. I think Baby Mix ran a similar race today against lesser horses. No doubt he's improved on last run but I would expect Grumeti & Pearl Swan to also do so. GRUMETI the one for me.
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Thought Grumeti was very lucky to get the race last time. If he wins today he'll be favourite though and the withdrawal of Keys has helped his chances.
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Well, Grumeti should be favouite imo.
Dodging Bullets looks a nice prospect too - may well struggle to beat Grumeti in the Triumph but looked like he'd come on a ton for the run and a left handed track. It will be interesting to see what Ruby chooses to ride. |
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How on earth was Grumeti ''lucky'' to win last time out? He was carried across the track in a similar fashion to when Jacqueline Quest beat Special Duty in the 1000 Guineas.
As for today, forget Minsk, jumped sh1t , found nothing and trainer cannot buy a winner at the moment. Dodging Bullets made an impressive debut behind Grumtei and is very much a nice prospect. But dont see him reversing the form. Baby Mix came right back to form and ran 4 seconds quicker than Grumtei, but Baby Mix had a horse in front, Dark & Dangerous, setting the pace which enabled him to settle. Grumeti had no such luxury but jumped sweet and looks a great physical specimen. Re the trial last time out at Chelten with Grum & Baby .. that race was unsatisfactory for most horses in the race with the exception of Pearl Swan who sat right out the back and picked up the pieces. Grum was very kean and jumped the horsewalk (9 days after a fall) and Baby Mix never settled. Pearl Swan allied with Ruby Walsh took advantage (nearly) imo. Grumeti top price 6/1 Baby Mix 7/1 |
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Yeh,i think thats fair Stront.
I aint given up on Sadlers Risk though,looked very green to me again and needs to settle better,but if he can i think hes still a big player. |
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Do think Grumeti has to be on my side,i think hes the most likely winner from what ive seen,but its bl00dy hard to say any horse will win with any great confidence.
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Any thoughts on Willie Mullins Darroun? All the british runners look a much of a muchness. I like Balder Succes but as someone stated on another thread, may need soft ground.
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Grumeti completed his Cheltenham Festival preparations with victory in the williamhill.com Dovecote Novices' Hurdle at Kempton.
Alan King's charge was sent off as the 4-9 favourite and after Crescent Beach set a sedate early gallop, he went on after the third last. At that stage debutants Terre Du Vent and Dodging Bullets were travellling equally as well but the former was to fall two out. Dodging Bullets showed signs of greenness after racing keenly but Robert Thornton never had to ask the winner a question and he won, hard held, by a length. Sky Bet reacted by making Grumeti their 5-1 Triumph Hurdle joint-favourite alongside Baby Mix. Thornton said: "He rode a little bit stuffily and there might be a little bit of improvement in him. He's definitely a Triumph horse, and that will stand him in good stead." King added: "That was a good effort. It was great for Choc (Robert Thornton) to get a feel of him and he jumped superbly. "I wouldn't be swapping him for anything else I've seen and I'm lucky to have two very good horses for the race in him and Balder Succes." Paul Nicholls, trainer of runner-up Dodging Bullets, said: "I'm pleased with him but he still looks a bit green and I might well wait for Aintree." |
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Having though my AP bet on Baby Mix was up in smoke, very pleased with today's events.
Won't bother going into the Baby Mix vs Grumeti as it will clearly be pocket talk and happy with my position. However though both horses have a very solid chance if they run their race cannot help thinking that this race has shock result written all over it |
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Personal view on todays trials
Minsk - didn't look like he took to hurdles, didn't seem to like the ground either Baby Mix - Very big horse for a 4 y/o .Good performance , didn't like his stiff tail ,he may have a back problem. Grumeti - Won a weak race today and I doubt the seconds much good. Grumeti has a good attitude but may well need some significant cut to win the Triumph hurdle as I think he lacks a bit of pace. |
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What didn't you like about Dodging Bullets?
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sadlers risk?
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I cant see beyond saddlers risk at the moment, course didn't suit today and Cheltenham will. The break neck speed of the triumph will be a big plus and help it settle.
I can't help think of the defeat of menorah in his prep race before the supreme. 2 weeks to go and time for the stable to come out of its dip. GL all. |
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I would like to see Hobbs having a couple of winners week before festival then I would be backing sadlers .
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I would like to see Hobbs having a couple of winners week before festival then I would be backing sadlers .
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Gashboy, i stated PS would have the best form from the nicholls yard and i believe that to be the case. A few more bubbles burst today.
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I reckon when this race was being named the name was chosen by a bookie.
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Swardean, I can see why Sadlers Risk is still on the radar for some people. It was only his second run afterall and he ran well enough behind a good horse. But I cant have your comment about not liking the track! He won his Novice Hurdle there by 17 lengths!
Tinkler - intrigued by your comment on Dodging Bullets. Trainer rates him highly and he was rated low 90's on the flat. Why do you think he is no good on the back of one run? |
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And btw, Menorah had good reasons for being beat before the Supreme. I know because I backed him well at the festival (posted on Plat's thread). Sadlers Risk was keen today and stable could be in better form but these are minor in comparision to Menorahs reasons for defeat prior to March,imo.
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We're in an impossible position; how good is Hinterland? Did Baby Mix have to do a lot to beat him at Cheltenham? Maybe he's suited more to Kempton hence the improvement today? Perhaps Sadlers Risk didn't enjoy a flat track but had the class to win on debut anyway? Certainly looked like he needed more of a test today!
We're find out at 1.35 on Friday 16th March...sadly that'll be too late! |
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Sintonian, I too backed Menorah thorought last season. I agree when he was beat it was a funny circumstance, The leasders looked like having a soft lead and johnson was scared they had got away. So he ran his race getting to them and hence had nothing at the end. Should be a cracker
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Why do I get the feeling of an ikdam (look it up any under 35s)
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