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Cheltenham Festival
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These 108 comments are related to the topic:
toms kween muvva champion chase pick.
toms kween muvva champion chase pick.
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Replies: 108
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I think the figure might be higher than anticipated. Only looked at the 2010 Arkle won by Sizing Europe. There were 3 btn horses from that race went on to contest the following years QM. Somersby 3rd in Arkle 5th QM, Mad Max 4th then 10th and Woolcombe Folly last then 2nd last.
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3 also from 2009. Pady, tho won the Arkle. Kalahai King and Golden Silver. Not lookin any further. imho, if you can't win the Arkle, you won't likely win the QM
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He's going to go for Wishful Thinking. End of. :)
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One not even considered a good enough 2 miler to run in the Arkle last year. WT looks more like a Ryanair horse to me
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Not sure that's necessarily fair thedemps - connections clearly made a good decision running Captain Chris in the Arkle and they were never going to run both horses in the same race.
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Where will Tom go now with only these entered? A few listed on this thread not entered.
Al Ferof Big Zeb Blazing Tempo Dan Breen Finian's Rainbow Forpadydeplasterer Gauvain Ghizao Hold Fast I'msingingtheblues I'm So Lucky Kauto Stone Nacarat Oiseau De Nuit Peddlers Cross Realt Dubh Sizing Europe Somersby Wishfull Thinking |
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The two I suggested are still on the list
 Trouble is, both may also go for the Ryanair.Of the 19, how many are likely runners? I reckon only Big Zeb, Sizing Europe, Finians Rainbow and Ghizao have this as their most likley target. Nacarat might run as he's not entered for the others. Al Ferof and Peddlers will probably run in the Arkle. Realt Dubh, Somersby, Kauto Stone, Forpady will probably run in the Ryanair. Some of these will end up in the Grand Annual (Dan Breen? Hold Fast? Oiseau de Nuit? I'msingingtheblues? I'm so lucky?) Gauvain or Wishful Thinking could go either QMCC or Ryanair. It could be a tiny field in the QMCC this season. |
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How far down the placings does the prize money go? It may tempt the handicappers?
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Last year, to 6th: £182,432.00, £68,448.00, £34,272.00, £17,088.00, £8,576.00, £4,288.00
I expect a few of the handicappers will have a go but (a) they won't win and (b) it's hard to predict which ones. |
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Wishful will be the one,and looking at that list i will be amazed if it aint.
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somersby may come into the picture if he wins the vc i no hen knight stated ryanair but if he has and entry and beats fr and al ferof etc wold give him a good form chance..id like to see him make running put his jumping to good use
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After reading the PN column on here, looks like Kauto Stone will run in the Ryanair and Al Ferof will go for the Arkle. So back to the drawing board for Tom's selection. DOH
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think the only way he can go now is with wishfull thinking
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He will go with forpady
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Do you get to see much racing CVB?
Is it just replays on Sportinglife and ATR? |
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owner of realt dubh wants to run in the champion
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I see most big ones, stream them via 365 or PadyP
Realt Dubh should go Ryanair, form tied with Noble P who is fav |
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I see most big ones, stream them via 365 or PadyP
Realt Dubh should go Ryanair, form tied with Noble P who is fav |
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Nobody think he might just take a Newmillesque flyer and put up Hold Fast?
He might just be the only genuine two-miler Nicholls has, and although he would have to improve massively, he has only been with the yard for a short while, dotted up at Sandown last time, and we all know Master Minded followed a similar route when winning his first QM. Am not saying for one minute that this horse is another Master Minded but in a race of very limited possibilities from an ante-post point of view, I wonder if this is a possibility. Only run nine times in his life, too, so open to improvement. |
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Now I see that Gauvain has been left in the VC, I think that'll be his pick. Horse has threatened to be very good without ever reaching the heights.
Personally cannot see past SE for this race though. |
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I agree with tomdeane. Hold Fast would be my pick. Impressive lto and also very well backed on the day.
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at the price i'd be willing to take a chance on wishful thinking, hobbs has been more upbeat about him lately and if we rewind back to his aintree run where choc thornton was so impressed at what he did in front of him on medermit, and going into this year where he was a lively champion chase horse...if he is getting back to that sort of form then 17's on here right now is over-priced...but you are taking quite a bit on trust that he shows it in the victor chandler....it'll be make or break come saturday night most probably.
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Wishfull Thinking & Finians Rainbow are currently being shortened by most bookies. Looks like 1 of these is pricewised.
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Surprised if he's thinks there's value in Finians price!
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Agreed Stront, however I don't think there's a lot in WT price either.
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Not now. Maybe a week ago. It's tough because as we've all discussed it's a race with a likely small field. In a similar event (the King George) he put up Kauto Star at 5/1.
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I think now is the time to get in each way at good prices and 3 places. If you look at the market, the best prices are:
S Europe 9/4: Confirmed runner B Zeb 9/2: Confirmed runner F Rainbow 6/1: Confirmed runner A Fefof 14/1: Maybe 25% chance of running (depends on VC chase) P Cross 16/1: Less chance than Al Ferof imo W Thinking 20/1: Highly likely will run K Stone 20/1: 40% QMCC, 60% Ryanair Gauvain 25/1: 50% QMCC, 50% Ryanair Realt Dubh 25/1: 30% QMCC, 70% Ryanair Hold Fast 33/1: Likely to run, but could go Grand Annual Ghizao 33/1: I'd assume handicap route Somersby 33/1: 10% QMCC, 90% Ryanair So of top 12 in the market, so far I'd say at the moment only Sizing, Zeb, Finians and Wishful Thinking are definite runners. I don't think there will be much change in prices of the top 3 in the market between now and March, so that only leaves Wishul Thinking; so 20/1 on what could be the 4th fav on the day will look a tasty price. I'm on Gauvain at around 40ish (and a saver in the Ryanair), with the idea that loads will pull out, and if he runs well in the VC Chase, he could come in to about 12's - 16's, and be an intended runner. The main point I'm trying to make is if you fancy an outsider, I think now is the time to back e/w on Wishful Thinking, Gauvain and Hold Fast because when the field cuts up the prices will shrink massively, and will be sure of top 3, 1/4 of the odds. |
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not if less than 8 run you wont
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AP you get 3 places and 1/4 odds - number of final runners makes no difference
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I think the race in ireland in feb will tell us the winner.
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Not if last years race is anything to go by howdi...
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Hoovered up the 20s on Wishfull this morning. Even at 14s and 16s it's an each way no brainer. Fill your boots....tens by this time tomoz.
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im a form man and id be surprised if SE or BZ didnt win it. unless alfie ferof turns up i love al
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I'd be surprised if one of the top three in the market didn't win, but they're plenty short for me, and as I can't seperate them I think Wishful Thinking and Gauvain are good odds for small stakes.
This isn't a race I'll be getting stuck into. |
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Think that's a mistake fella, the underround is potentially massive.
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finians currently 6's,what price WT after Saturday if he beats him,and thats a fair chance imo
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365 cut wishful from 20's - 14s now in the space of 15minutes
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wishful good e.w bet, but i think sizing is the best 2miler around so hard not to be on him
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Had a fill of WT at 20s not 16 minutes ago with 365
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i wudnt get carried away with WT, think he mite well run a place, but has very little chance with sizing, got around 40 lengths to make up,on sizings fav track and best time of year for him
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