Cheltenham Festival
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a lot of debate on the horse forums about not being able to get on the great mans ante post tips to any great money , well the best way would be to try and second guess him ,i e think like he does and look for an edge ,as i said in a the champion hurdle posts if we can second guess him a week or so before the race we have enough time to fill our boots and also to trade off at the prices as the inevitable flood of money comes in for his tips ,
next tuesday he is focusing on the 2m champion chase ,and where better to start than the reigning champion sizing europe a fluent jumper who loves cheltenham and good ground and who added the champion chase last year to the arkle he won the year the before he is going to be tough to beat as his trainer has had him spot on for the last 2 years ,but we know tom will not put this one up due to the price ,
next best is big zeb another former winner of the race and a good 2nd last year but he is an 11 year old now and it is unlikly tom will put him up , the race is rather cloudy in that we do not know for sure what races some of these are going to end up in , that is where ladds nrn bet option is invaluable ,finians rainbow is an improver and around 8/1 but he doesnt have a lot in hand of wishfull thinking who he beat narrowly and is more than 3 times the price at 25/1 ,tom could opt for wishfull thinking but he may be targeted at the ryanair so i think he will swerve him ,
also noble prince has the ryanair option and at 14s is a bit short for a horses who seems best over further , realt dubhs trainer has also stated that the ryanaire is the target .
captain chris would have to be taken very seriusly if he was to take the champion route but he has the gold cup on the agenda ,we will know more after his next run .
the novice al ferof is also prominent in the betting but his participation seems to hinge on his performance in the victor chandler chase for which he is favourite ,we will know more after the v.c but somehow i cant see tom putting up a novice in a race with seasoned speedsters , the one who interests me at a price and who could show massive improvement is paul nicholls kauto stone who won over further in ireland and who was in the process of running a stormer in the tingle creek ,he travelled strongly and jumped superbly upsides sizing europe untill the 3rd last when he blundered and i think he would have really put it up to sizing euro that day if it wasnt for that mistake the gulf he has to make up is not that great , .he is too big at the prices for me and rates the bet .
he is said to want slow ground but his illustrious brother the great kauto goes best on good ground and he may even improve for it plus cheltenham could be right up his street ,at 20s each way at laddies non runner no bet he appeals as the bet at this stage and if he dont go money back.
thats my take on it, whats yours if you have a view put it up ,its all about opinions.
next tuesday he is focusing on the 2m champion chase ,and where better to start than the reigning champion sizing europe a fluent jumper who loves cheltenham and good ground and who added the champion chase last year to the arkle he won the year the before he is going to be tough to beat as his trainer has had him spot on for the last 2 years ,but we know tom will not put this one up due to the price ,
next best is big zeb another former winner of the race and a good 2nd last year but he is an 11 year old now and it is unlikly tom will put him up , the race is rather cloudy in that we do not know for sure what races some of these are going to end up in , that is where ladds nrn bet option is invaluable ,finians rainbow is an improver and around 8/1 but he doesnt have a lot in hand of wishfull thinking who he beat narrowly and is more than 3 times the price at 25/1 ,tom could opt for wishfull thinking but he may be targeted at the ryanair so i think he will swerve him ,
also noble prince has the ryanair option and at 14s is a bit short for a horses who seems best over further , realt dubhs trainer has also stated that the ryanaire is the target .
captain chris would have to be taken very seriusly if he was to take the champion route but he has the gold cup on the agenda ,we will know more after his next run .
the novice al ferof is also prominent in the betting but his participation seems to hinge on his performance in the victor chandler chase for which he is favourite ,we will know more after the v.c but somehow i cant see tom putting up a novice in a race with seasoned speedsters , the one who interests me at a price and who could show massive improvement is paul nicholls kauto stone who won over further in ireland and who was in the process of running a stormer in the tingle creek ,he travelled strongly and jumped superbly upsides sizing europe untill the 3rd last when he blundered and i think he would have really put it up to sizing euro that day if it wasnt for that mistake the gulf he has to make up is not that great , .he is too big at the prices for me and rates the bet .
he is said to want slow ground but his illustrious brother the great kauto goes best on good ground and he may even improve for it plus cheltenham could be right up his street ,at 20s each way at laddies non runner no bet he appeals as the bet at this stage and if he dont go money back.
thats my take on it, whats yours if you have a view put it up ,its all about opinions.
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my opinion is you need to get a life
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cheers hoff, i value your compliment and opinion .
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I can't see much tbh, especially as so many of the "medium" priced horses seem more likely to head for the Ryanair.
With little confidence, I'd suggest Wishfull Thinking who was, after all, the top rated novice at any trip last season and will be kept apart from Captain Chris. Also Gauvain e/w because he has 3 wins over close to C&D. However, I just can't see Sizing getting beat unless soemthing goes wrong with him. |
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Kauto Stone i believe will be in the Ryanair,think he will know that so it wont be him.
I think it will be Wishful Thinking myself,right sort of price.He would be my pick anyway,hes the only one that i can see troubling the front 2. |
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Didn't Tom tip FR at 16/1 after last years Arkle ??
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Looking a pretty ordinary race on paper.
I've said on another thread that I've backed Gauvain at 40/1 for the QMCC and the Ryanair, as I think he's overpriced. Flat Out would interest me a lot, but not ran since being injured is a huge negative. I thought he was the Arkle winner last year before he fell in Ireland. The time to back in this is when the others go NRNB because this will cut up probably more than any other race. Not much value in Lads price atm. |
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Is there any chance Quel Esprit ends up here?
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Doubt it. 3 mile chase beckons next imo.
Im sure Segal has already advised FR straight after last years Arkle .. ? |
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he could well end up here stron ,but as you well know trying to 2nd guess w.mullins will lead you to the poor house ,have heard hes going for the gold cup,champion chase ,even heard talk of the 4 miler from some, who knows ,best back him with ladds nrnb if you fancy him for anything .
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The 4 miler is for novices foyles
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brandy ........foyles = confused .com
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I know its very unlikely to pitch up, but if he did I would like Captain Chris for this race.
FR at the moment seems the only credible threat to Sizing as you know that this is the race he will go for. I see no reason why FR would reverse Arkle form at Cheltenham |
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There are only 2 places to look for the Queen Mother winner. 1)The previous years race. 2)The previous years Arkle winner. The last QM winner not to win the Arkle, when running in it, was way back in 1993, Deep Sensation. That stat will take me away from FR. He will not look at the 1st 2 in the betting, SE & BZ due to price and age although of the 2, it would def rule out BZ. Only 2 11yo have won in over 50yrs. As Foyle stated earlier, he does not tip up horses that have not been seen this season so take out NP. As he put up CC for GC glory, he aint gonna put it up in this too.
I also think he will opt for the Nicholls trained Kauto Stone. It's only had 2 starts since coming over from France and with only 8L to find with the champion, which included a bad mistake, I think Tom will put up KS. 25s just now |
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Didn't he put up Finians Rainbow for this after last year's Arkle?
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I'll be stunned if Kauto Stone runs in this.
What is NP btw willie? I assume Noble Prince, if so he's run three times already, twice finishing second to Big Zeb. Anyhow his trainer has stated the aim is Ryanair, not a trainer I'd trust, but makes full sense in this case. |
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yes willie this race looks sure to cut up ,and kauto stone and wishfull thinking are the 2 unexposed ones more so kauto stone as had fewer chases ,(dont know how much chasing expierience he had in france )have watched the tingle creek a couple of times and wishfull thinking went off to fast and was cooked before 2 out he could do better with more restraint as he did at kempton, only just beaten by finians but i thought hobbs said he favours ryanaire so that leaves kauto stone as the other possible improver ! have backed kauto may back wishfull think as well at ladds nrnb .
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think nicholls will want one in this its a high profile race ,he may think al ferof up to the job and he may be right its a nightmare to be honest as you just dont know who, other than the top 2 in the betting is going for for the champion or ryanair or other targets .....at least if yer back with ladds you get the insurance .................
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Foyles - Quel esprit can't run in the 4 miler as he's not a novice.
Nicholls has said, I believe, Kauto Stone will go for the Ryanair. He didn't look quick enough to deal with Sizing Europe at Sandown. However, he has been known to change his mind. |
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Stront - if Kauto Stone is not fast enough, then he could be selected, after all he selected Oscars Well. He might pull Hold Fast out of the hat. He used the race he won on Saturday for Master Minded before his first Champion.
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yes stront disregard the 4 miler i was mistaking something i heard on another thread , if kauto stone dont run in the champion ill get my money back ,but other than kauto ,or wish think cant think who pricewise will put up, cant see him tipping gauvain either .
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I'd be very suprised if he were to put Hold Fast up as apart from winning the race Master minded won at Sandown prior to the champion chase the two horses had completely different profiles,that said it wouldn't be a total shock if he were to put something up that was a little bit leftfield.My guess at this moment as to his pick would rest between Realt Dubh and Noble Prince.Noble Prince has been campaigned at the minimum all season and doesn't have a massive amount of ground to make up with Big Zeb on either of his last two runs.Don't forget that Sizing Europe was over six lengths behind Big Zeb last winter in Ireland before turning the form round on spring ground at Cheltenham at the festival.Granted his trainer has nominated the Ryanair as his likely Festival target but at very big prices and NRNB with some of the books he might tempt more than a few.Realt Dubh is a 3 time grade one winner including twice at two miles,He may step up to further in time but given he is still relatively unexposed over fences he may be the chosen selection
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am sure n.meade said he favours ryanair for realt dubh, but things can change!
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Everyone seems to favour everything for the Ryanair and that race could be a classic. It certainly looks deeper than either the Gold Cup or QMCC. However if a few trainers think the CC is weak, especially if something happens to BZ or SE, we may well see some running plans change. The entries will be interesting on Thurs!
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Wonder what price Al Ferof will be if he beats his elders a week on saturday at Ascot?If that does happern then i'd say the Champion would be his more likely Festival target
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Which Novices will be entered on the off chance? If so does anybody think they'd beat BZ & SE?
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For me the play at the minute is 9/4 Sizing and 20/1 Kauto Stone EW both NRNB
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captain cee bee. check out last years race. e/w obviosuly
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I couldn't contemplate backing Sizing Europe at the current prices.He may be the defending champion from last year and does clearly have the advantage of having been there and done it at two previous festivals but there is no getting away from the fact he is 10 years old and very few horses manage to win this race at his age.Beating Kauto Stone over 2 miles on ground that wasn't near soft enough for the runner up over a trip the runner up would of found way short of his optimum does't entitle sizing to be anywhere near his current odds
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I would not be put off by sizing Europe's age for a second, he looked as good as ever in the Tingle Creek, plus he is a relatively lightly raced horse. There is no strength in depth to this market, I can't see past the horse atm.
I have no idea what Tom will pick, at the prices only Flat Out is of interest to me, but not seen this season. He's enetered up this weekend which may tell us some more about his well being. |
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I thought someone else may have given Flat Out a mention.
He is very unexposed, and ran a good fifth in the Supreme Novices behind Menorah, when probably inexperienced horse in the race, having only won a maiden hurdle previously. They didn't hang about over hurdles and sent him straight chasing, and he was travelling really well when coming down in the Irish Arkle two out, and he surely would have beaten Noble Prince and Realt Dubh, and been Ireland's main Arkle hope last year. He is entered into a 2m4f hurdle this weekend, so it seems that he is on the road to recovery. I'd only back him NRNB, but he's similar to Quel Esprit; when he gets it right he has the potential to get right to the top. |
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Sorry GI Mac, didn't see the second paragraph of your post above
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No worries. For me he looks the only one in the market with the potential to be top class and mix it with the top two. I'm not a fan of FR and the rest look mainly exposed, or have other targets. I've been swithering over baldblokes price of 20/1 NRNB for a bit.
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willie the milk
Date Joined: 16 Mar 05 Add contact | Send message When: 10 Jan 12 20:04 Joined: Date Joined: 16 Mar 05 | Topic/replies: 200 | Blogger: willie the milk's blog There are only 2 places to look for the Queen Mother winner. 1)The previous years race. 2)The previous years Arkle winner. The last QM winner not to win the Arkle, when running in it, was way back in 1993, Deep Sensation. That stat will take me away from FR. He will not look at the 1st 2 in the betting, SE & BZ due to price and age although of the 2, it would def rule out BZ. Only 2 11yo have won in over 50yrs. As Foyle stated earlier, he does not tip up horses that have not been seen this season so take out NP. As he put up CC for GC glory, he aint gonna put it up in this too. I also think he will opt for the Nicholls trained Kauto Stone. It's only had 2 starts since coming over from France and with only 8L to find with the champion, which included a bad mistake, I think Tom will put up KS. 25s just now This info is meaningless unless you know how many horses beaten in the Arkle have attempted the QMCC next season .. ? |
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Sin - It still puts me off horses that cannot win the Arkle attempting an ever harder race the next year.
Your right Barn. Noble Prince has been out this season. I do think the deeper the better for him tho. |
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willie the milk Date Joined: 16 Mar 05
Add contact | Send message When: 10 Jan 12 20:04 Joined: Date Joined: 16 Mar 05 | Topic/replies: 201 | Blogger: willie the milk's blog There are only 2 places to look for the Queen Mother winner. 1)The previous years race. 2)The previous years Arkle winner. Hi willie not having a pop but when Newmill won this race in 2006 he had never even run at Chelters let alone in the arkle. I would agree with your earlier post though about horses which have failed to win the arkle coming back for the champion chase. |
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Have we got any stats on that Monte ? Any numbers to back it up ??
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Yes I did notice that MC. I believe it was it's first run outside of Ireland. My mate had £50 e-w @ 33s AP
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It would be good to see how many runners that run in the Arkle went on to compete in the following year's QM. I don't think it will be a high number tbh, but as I posted earlier, Deep Sensation was the last to win the QM after running, but not winning, the Arkle
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Well at least we can say it has been done before then with Deep Sensation.
I agree the number probably wont be high, no more than 10 i'd imagine, in which case this would not be a big enough sample size to draw firm conclusions from. |