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Cheltenham Festival

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sintonian
08 Jan 12 17:34
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
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Had a cut at 20/1.

Had Colour Squadron not hung like a barndoor in the Tolworth yesterday he would be 3/3 on Soft going and a Grade 1 winner. This makes Montbazon's 1 lenght defeat on HIS debut look very good indeed, particularly as he is described as a speedy horse so could have done with quicker ground. Ericht was a further 19 lengths back in third, who also have the advantage of a previous run, so on that line of form he has the beating of Steps to Freedom.

At 20/1 he's worth a crack imo. Kingy can do no wrong at the moment, he horses have been running well all season, and hopefully Montbazon can avenge the defeat of Medermit a few years ago. AngryCry

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Replies: 122
By:
denman85
When: 08 Jan 12 17:38
yehi was on few weeks ago got 25's, think good ground at chelt is nailed on this year, think he one of the more lightly winners at this stage
By:
sintonian
When: 08 Jan 12 17:49
Why do you think good ground is Nailed on ?? Laugh I hope your right.
By:
denman85
When: 08 Jan 12 17:54
good racing ground ie good to soft, track drains so well now, to be fair honest supreme isnt a race i go big on, had fingers burnt a few times in  this race! amarretto rose sticks in my head!
By:
harry callaghan
When: 08 Jan 12 18:15
Fair shout Sintonian...in an open year for the Supreme he certainly won't look out of place...I have to say I haven't backed it as am convinced the horse just wants a bit further...but he didn't look in love with the ground at Newbury and the winner certainly was...he can only improve plenty and I know reading Kings page he thinks the world of the horse...In a normal stampede in the supreme on better ground the stamina will come into play and he won't be found wanting in that department...I don't know when we will see him next but I would say he had a hard race at Newbury on that ground and just the one more run before taking in the supreme will be the order of the day...he is certainly a long term project.
By:
Black Sam Bellamy
When: 08 Jan 12 19:53
Galileo's Choice ?
By:
denman85
When: 08 Jan 12 20:03
wasnt he beaten by sous les cieux? and SLC was well beaten over xmas, improvement surely to be made tho
By:
stevo1
When: 09 Jan 12 01:23
Yes Denman, Soux Les Cieux beat Galileos Choice, then ran with choke out next time when beaten 3rd,think connections stated will drop him in next time out,would defo give him another chance as impressed in previous 2 outings.
By:
booster
When: 09 Jan 12 04:28
I've never been a King fan but think he's done well this season and, although he's probably slightly over rated the horse, I liked his Newbury run and also think Cheltenham on better ground will be ideal and 20-1 a good price which I'll be taking if still around this morning as nothing has really stood out this year.
By:
stevo1
When: 09 Jan 12 08:47
Hopefully trainer gets win on board before, as not many maiden hurdlers win Supreme?
By:
sintonian
When: 09 Jan 12 12:27
This quote is 4 weeks old.


Turning his attention to Montbazon, who ran a super first race over hurdles to be beaten only a length by the more-experienced Colour Squadron, Alan added:“I knew that Montbazon was too good a mover to enjoy that ground, but I needed to get him going over hurdles.
     “He has done plenty of work since that bumper at Cheltenham, and, like all my bumper horses, he has been schooling for two seasons. He has probably jumped 200 hurdles at home, so we never have any worries on that score.
     “Our horses were not firing in the autumn and he also came back from Cheltenham with sore shins, so I have to be well satisfied.
     “The first two have pulled 19 lengths clear of Ericht, who had solid form, and the time was also very good, so now we can build on this. Montbazon has so much speed that he will be much better on good ground, and we will look for something in the new year.”
By:
buddeliea
When: 09 Jan 12 12:30
yep,totally agree,definitely worth a go at the odds,can see him running a big race.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 10 Jan 12 15:55
Cant make my mind up about this one. Keep thinking about backing him but then stop myself. Cant get out of my head that Steps to Freedom beat him a bit more easily than a couple of lenghts suggests, giving him 6lb, at Aintree. He has proved that he hurdles very well, so takes a but of a leap of faith to think that Montbazon has improved past him for me.

Also, although it was Montbazon's hurding debut, he'd already had a run in a bumper to put him spot on for the race against Colour Squadron. If we accept that PW didnt run his race in the Tolworth, its hard to equate the form.

I think thie form line between these two is the best in the race though, and think they will both be in the shake up. But I'd still favour Steps to Freedom.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 11 Jan 12 11:16
Will he definitly go the Supreme route?
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Jan 12 12:40
Montbazon ? No idea. Could go for the Neptune aswell I suppose. But that is the chance we take with ante-post innit.
By:
bigben
When: 11 Jan 12 13:27
Alan King stated in his stable tour, that he wouldnt be going any further than two miles this season as he shows a lot of speed at home. Ive had a nibble at 20s this morning, i think he"ll improve alot for better ground & the trainer has always rated him very highly.
By:
R Carver
When: 11 Jan 12 18:42
I like this one Sint, it is half in my mind that he may be a flat track horse, though i do not base that on his bumper run at Cheltenham. I think that run can be safely ignored in terms of the horse's ability, i'd be more inclined to put that down to stable form and lack of fitness more than anything. Amazing looking horse.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Jan 12 19:01
Yep had thought about that also RCarver looking at his bumper form, but came to the same conclusion as you .. trainers strike-rate improved after that debut run and he was bound to have needed it. I did not see anything in his defeat to suggest he wont like the course.
By:
booster
When: 11 Jan 12 20:12
I've just watched a recording of his Newbury  run and was even more impressed than I was at the time. He never came off the bridle until 10 strides before the last and that cruising speed will stand him in good stead in The Supreme. King said he'd go no further than 2 miles this season in One Jump Ahead and surely he has only one target preceded by the trainer's favourite route of The Dovecote first.

I admit to not always being the trainer's biggest fan but his Weekender column has been very accurate and he's been in decent form all season. I just think the horse may not have truly stayed in bumpers but over hurdles with a year's maturing I think he'll see out the 2 miles no problem and should be on the bridle 2 out.
By:
booster
When: 11 Jan 12 20:13
I've just watched a recording of his Newbury  run and was even more impressed than I was at the time. He never came off the bridle until 10 strides before the last and that cruising speed will stand him in good stead in The Supreme. King said he'd go no further than 2 miles this season in One Jump Ahead and surely he has only one target preceded by the trainer's favourite route of The Dovecote first.

I admit to not always being the trainer's biggest fan but his Weekender column has been very accurate and he's been in decent form all season. I just think the horse may not have truly stayed in bumpers but over hurdles with a year's maturing I think he'll see out the 2 miles no problem and should be on the bridle 2 out.
By:
R Carver
When: 11 Jan 12 22:18
Agree with that Booster / Sint. Exciting times now!
By:
sintonian
When: 13 Jan 12 08:57
Ericht runs today 1.50 Huntingdon.
By:
booster
When: 13 Jan 12 09:21
As I've backed him at 20-1 I've just had a look at the videos of his runs and strikes me that they've always held him in very high regard as he's always hard held 2 out but just not quite seeing it out or possible being disappointed at not being able to stride out. In his next race I wouldn't be surprised if they kick on 2 out and let him use the speed he appears to have at that time to try and win his race. His form certainly ties in well with some high class horses and you could argue he may have beaten Cheltenian at Kempton first time up last season if he'd not been hampered.
By:
sintonian
When: 16 Jan 12 12:42
“We will have entries for Ascot, Wincanton and Haydock on Saturday, but Montbazon, who has had a break since he was beaten by Colour Squadron at the last Newbury meeting, needs a couple more bits of work, so it will probably be next week before he reappears.''

king's www..
By:
R Carver
When: 16 Jan 12 20:15
There is a 2m novice hurdle next Wed 25th at Hereford and at Fontwell and Doncaster on Fri 27th (Doncaster would surely be more likely, given he has run there and it has som similarity to Newbury). The novices at Doncaster and Cheltenham on the Sat are over further and Fos Las stage one on 29th.
By:
strontium
When: 16 Jan 12 21:10
I've read that Montbazon will only run in good races until he breaks his maiden so he would retain his novice staus for next season if he doesn't win one.
By:
BJG
When: 22 Jan 12 21:37
Alan, who has pencilled in our highly-rated novice Montbazon for either Huntingdon on Friday or Plumpton next week



Form AK site
By:
sintonian
When: 28 Jan 12 22:36
A treble at Cheltenham today for King & Hutchinson. Stable in much better form this season.

Interesting if Montbazon takes up his engagement at PLUMPTON on Monday. He'll be on for a big bonus should he go on and win at Cheltenham ?
By:
buddeliea
When: 29 Jan 12 08:11
Kings gone for that before,more than once i believe.
VPU springs to mind.
By:
sintonian
When: 29 Jan 12 09:54
Hang on .. is the Plumpton/Cheltenham bonus only eligible in the Novice Chases or is it the Novice Hurdles aswell ?
By:
buddeliea
When: 29 Jan 12 09:58
This exciting bonus initiative, sponsored by horse racing broadcasters SIS, offers the connections of a horse that wins one of six nominated Novices CHASES at Plumpton the opportunity to scoop the valuable £60,000 cash bonus if it goes on to win any steeple chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March. It was last won by Voy Por Ustedes who won at Plumpton before going onto triumph in the Arkle Chase.

Yer right Sint,thats from the Plumpton website mate.
By:
sintonian
When: 29 Jan 12 10:02
Yup thought so. Cheers Budd.
By:
BJG
When: 29 Jan 12 19:23
A canter around tomorrow at Plumpton 1/10 sp????
By:
strontium
When: 29 Jan 12 21:51
Odd. Their stated plan had been not to lose his maiden/novice status in anything less than a top race (so he'd be eligible again next season unless he won a big festival race).
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Jan 12 09:15
I thought it odd they would want to keep such a good horse as a Noivce anyway tbh. This horse COULD turn into a CH contender so no idea why they'd want to keep him a novice.

Hopefully and most likely he'll have another run after today.
By:
comingupthehill
When: 30 Jan 12 13:10
its form isnt that good,average chelt winner runs 6 weeks before festival,alot go to festival with a win lto,just dont think as shown nearly enough form.
By:
strontium
When: 30 Jan 12 13:25
Well he's just run 6 weeks before the Festival and won....

Unfortunately he won as a 1/10 shot should so I'm none the wiser, except his jumping wasn't all that fluent.
By:
comingupthehill
When: 30 Jan 12 13:39
strange he was hard at work all the way to line,didnt ease down
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Jan 12 13:41
Lost your point there Cuth. He's just done exactly what you said the average winner does, 6 weeks and won lto.

Anyway, today was more experience for him. The third last he collided mid-air with the horse on his right but other than that he jumped fine. The form amounts to nothing as it was a poor race, but more than anything this was about experience, as he has not run for 47 days and is bound to improve for it.

One more run against better opposition next time out i'd imagine.
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Jan 12 13:43
Cuth, I must have missed the bit where the jockey was punching and kicking for his life and using the whip ?
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