following on from the lively debates sparked by the pricewise gold cup selections that will hopefully continue for a good while , tom segal selects his champion hurdle hope in the next week or 2 . if we can second guess him there is a good chance of a pre race profit and also we can gleam snippets of info and views of like minded posters in the search for value for the festival that should help us all . we know he is going for a biggish priced value selection ,so thats going to rule out the fav hurricane fly who is also the subject of some doubt about his wellbeing having missed 2 engagements in ireland this season, he is the reigning champ and a worthy fav but pricewise will not be putting up a short priced horse like him . grandoeut is second fav at around 6 s but he has lines of form tieing in the likes of zarkandar and unnacompied and these are bigger prices but i think he may swerve these 3 due to the prices and record of 5 year olds ,spirit son looks a bit short for what he has achieved so far although he is improving . binocular has had enough chances but we know roughly what he is capable of and i cant really see tom putting him up although you cant rule him out , thousand stars is surely better over further and has the world hurdle option , rock on ruby is interesting in that he is improving and has run to a high standard with his close 2nd to binocular with overturn behind ,he could well improve past binocular and go close in the champion and at 12s he could be in toms sights . the one who interests me and is the type of horses tom could put up is jessie harringtons oscars well he has been running well in unsuitable races and reminds me of how hardy eustace was campaigned in the season he won his 1st champion i.e running in the 2.5mile festival race as a novice and dropping back in trip the following season ,and running well and being placed but not winning in slowly run races in ireland . he was usefull last season and was possibly unlucky not to win at the festival when blundering when holding every chance at the last hurdle in the race ( neptune?) won by first liutenant with rock on ruby in second, at around 25/1 in the shops he appeals to me as a decent each way bet especially with laddies non runner no bet insurance .
will tom put this one up ? what are your views ? as ever good heated reasoned debate welcolmed,if youve got a view put it up! its all about opinions .
A place in the Champion won't hurt her value as a broodmare. And she's 5 - she might be winning the mares race in 7 years time (unless Quevega is still on the go)
A place in the Champion won't hurt her value as a broodmare. And she's 5 - she might be winning the mares race in 7 years time (unless Quevega is still on the go)
Oscars Well cut by Ladbrokes NRNB but not by the ante post firms
Not sure what to think, If I was Ladbrokes I'd have done the same. If he fancies OW then it makes sense to take 20/1 NRNB over 25/1 AP. Shave 5 points and maybe still be able to lay it
Zarkandar and Spirit Son all BlueOscars Well cut by Ladbrokes NRNB but not by the ante post firmsNot sure what to think, If I was Ladbrokes I'd have done the same. If he fancies OW then it makes sense to take 20/1 NRNB over 25/1 AP. Shave 5 points an
thrashed in last two performaces form tied in with thousand stars who was unplaced last year means a formline of 5th-6th at best. I am also one of the few who believe he wouldn't have won the neptune last year. Form of that race looking sketchy too.
thrashed in last two performaces form tied in with thousand stars who was unplaced last year means a formline of 5th-6th at best. I am also one of the few who believe he wouldn't have won the neptune last year. Form of that race looking sketchy too.
IMO this years champion hurdle rests on the fitness of one horse The Fly if he turns up in the same shape he is going to take some stopping.
The only other two I could have are Spirit son (brilliant performance at aintree) and ive been converted to Zarkandar as the triumph form is working out a treat.
Grandouet looks an improver but he was beaten fairly convincingly by Zarkandar and Unaccompained last year and it would take some improvement to beat them this year.
If I was picking an outsider it would be Thousand stars who I think has improved again but thats a leap of faith to think he can win it.
If he ran in it and don't think he would i'd be interested in Al Ferof as I think he's a smashing horse but The Fly looked the best we'd seen in a decade last year.
IMO this years champion hurdle rests on the fitness of one horse The Fly if he turns up in the same shape he is going to take some stopping.The only other two I could have are Spirit son (brilliant performance at aintree) and ive been converted to Za
Keeping scratching my head as to why people think the Neptune form has fallen apart. ROR has improved his rating by over a stone.
OW chance surely rests on better going.Keeping scratching my head as to why people think the Neptune form has fallen apart. ROR has improved his rating by over a stone.
Sintonian it's not better ground OW needs as he's won on soft and heavy it's a longer distance. Quite simple to see really. 2 1/2 mile plus.
I want to see Big Bucks back over fences, but can't blame them for mopping up.
Sintonian it's not better ground OW needs as he's won on soft and heavy it's a longer distance. Quite simple to see really. 2 1/2 mile plus.I want to see Big Bucks back over fences, but can't blame them for mopping up.
Plenty of novoices get stepped back in trip in their second season though dont they Shocksters.
I am only going on what Connections have said anyway. I dont particularly fancy OW.
Plenty of novoices get stepped back in trip in their second season though dont they Shocksters.I am only going on what Connections have said anyway. I dont particularly fancy OW.
But yet Tom Segal says in his column he thought the horse was a thorough 2 miler, was going incredibly well at that distance and was still looking likely to trouble the finish before demolishing the last flight! At 25/1, he was way over priced, went under my radar till this morning and have since put that right.
But yet Tom Segal says in his column he thought the horse was a thorough 2 miler, was going incredibly well at that distance and was still looking likely to trouble the finish before demolishing the last flight! At 25/1, he was way over priced, went
Absolutely right Howdi. Look the guys good, I don't think anybody doubts that, however clutching at straws with Oscars Well, just picking a price for the sake of it and simply hoping for the best.
Absolutely right Howdi. Look the guys good, I don't think anybody doubts that, however clutching at straws with Oscars Well, just picking a price for the sake of it and simply hoping for the best.
Howdi, I can just see that race, Ruby jumping the last with one leg on each like a circus act
I'm also surprised he's picked Oscars, but I think he'll benefit from better ground and a fast pace. His last run was also a big step up on earlier work this season. Historically, the Neptune works out well for the Champion, whereas the Supreme is a poorer guide. Presumably that's because stamina is important to win the Champion.
It's a funny race - the three most fancied horses haven't been seen on a raceourse this season! Is that hype? Expectation? Does it suggest the ones that have run aren't all that good? Several of the next best are likely to run elsewhere (Thousand Stars, Oscar Whisky, Voler la Vadette). I think they'll be a few more twists between now and March 13.
Howdi, I can just see that race, Ruby jumping the last with one leg on each like a circus act I'm also surprised he's picked Oscars, but I think he'll benefit from better ground and a fast pace. His last run was also a big step up on earlier work thi
o.k howdi see your points he was beaten in has last few runs and by a horse he will probably be meeting at cheltenham , but as i recall man utd were once beaten by northampton does that mean northampton will beat them every time they play them , no of course it dont ,there are mitigating circumstances oscar wells may not win but segal would not have put him up for the fun of it . he has been running in races that have not played to his strengths i.e slowly run races on unsuitable ground he was about 3 1/2 lengths behind unnacompanied giving her 10 lb and yes hurricane fly does look as if he will take a hell of beating if he turns up 100 per cent ,but its a horse race and anything can happen and at the prices especially if you got the 25s each way he has a decent chance of being placed at least .good luck.
o.k howdi see your points he was beaten in has last few runs and by a horse he will probably be meeting at cheltenham , but as i recall man utd were once beaten by northampton does that mean northampton will beat them every time they play them , no
you won't convince me foyle a string of ducks eggs to his name and beaten by The Real Article . Uncle Tom knows more than me but I can't have this with counterfeit
you won't convince me foyle a string of ducks eggs to his name and beaten by The Real Article . Uncle Tom knows more than me but I can't have this with counterfeit
If I was Donald Mccain and HF didnt turn up I'd be giving a lot of thought to chancing my arm. Doubt he will though. He has more chance here than beating the Sacre who to my eye put in the performance of the season at xmas.
just a thought of my own.If I was Donald Mccain and HF didnt turn up I'd be giving a lot of thought to chancing my arm. Doubt he will though. He has more chance here than beating the Sacre who to my eye put in the performance of the season at xmas.
Tom & his sheep now have The Real Article & Oscars Well for the Champ Hurdle. I hope he picks something else with the pin he's using because the 2 he's picked won't even give them a shout.
Tom & his sheep now have The Real Article & Oscars Well for the Champ Hurdle. I hope he picks something else with the pin he's using because the 2 he's picked won't even give them a shout.
So why no mention of that today then? Are you sure it was a pick and not just a write up on the chances of him for a race that was at the time more than 6 months away? I am sure if it was a pick/selection it would have been in the box would it not?
So why no mention of that today then? Are you sure it was a pick and not just a write up on the chances of him for a race that was at the time more than 6 months away? I am sure if it was a pick/selection it would have been in the box would it not?
I was backing OW for this race at the end of last season and the start of this, but have torn up the tickets in my mind.
However, I would disagree with some on here, and say that I definitely dont think he needs further. I think the CH is the ideal race for him and should bring out the best in him. I still think its very hard to see him getting placed, but the trip, ground, fast run race is what he is crying out for imo.
I was backing OW for this race at the end of last season and the start of this, but have torn up the tickets in my mind.However, I would disagree with some on here, and say that I definitely dont think he needs further. I think the CH is the ideal ra
think people are getting way carried away wiv pricewise selections, he is a proven tipster, but alot of the time hes way wrong, look at last years selection for champ hurdle - mille chief, (done well to finish last!) last year for festival he got 2 ante post winner out of 13 selections the two been al ferof and captain chris, i personally ante post winners last year i had captain chris at 12's sizing europe at 16's hurricane fly at 3's so we all can get it rite sometimes!
think people are getting way carried away wiv pricewise selections, he is a proven tipster, but alot of the time hes way wrong, look at last years selection for champ hurdle - mille chief, (done well to finish last!) last year for festival he got 2 a
yeah denman the prices he picks will mean he inevitably tips a lot of losers but the ones that do come in mean that he can afford to have a fair amount of losers, he may have only tipped 2 winners but the ante post prices at level stakes mean he finished cheltenham in profit . i think that he probably wouldnt have a bet in some races if it was down to him, but its his job and he has to put something up .
yeah denman the prices he picks will mean he inevitably tips a lot of losers but the ones that do come in mean that he can afford to have a fair amount of losers, he may have only tipped 2 winners but the ante post prices at level stakes mean he fini
yeh i aint knocking him, hes is good, but to be honest i rarely back him for the festival tho, i like to think i have my only views and im happy wiv them on the whole, although i do sometimes back him throughout the season
yeh i aint knocking him, hes is good, but to be honest i rarely back him for the festival tho, i like to think i have my only views and im happy wiv them on the whole, although i do sometimes back him throughout the season
I'm pretty certain he tipped The Real Article for the champ hurdle back along at 33's. Rather handy the RP & Tom have forgotten about that ticket. Must be in the RP recycle bin.
I'm pretty certain he tipped The Real Article for the champ hurdle back along at 33's. Rather handy the RP & Tom have forgotten about that ticket. Must be in the RP recycle bin.
I was a big fan of Oscars Well last year, and put him in a lucky 15 at 20/1 in April 2011 (along with Sprinter Sacre, Bobs Worth and Weapons Amnesty).
Like Can't Catch Me Said, I've torn that part of the Lucky 15 up - in my mind the best case scenario is SS and BW.
He may well run OK but he has a lot to find with the principles. I can understand Steven Segal putting up Captain Chris because he could well be the best of the rest behind the front 2. However, for Oscars Well, I can think of about 6 I'd rather be on ahead of him.
Could be wrong though.
I was a big fan of Oscars Well last year, and put him in a lucky 15 at 20/1 in April 2011 (along with Sprinter Sacre, Bobs Worth and Weapons Amnesty).Like Can't Catch Me Said, I've torn that part of the Lucky 15 up - in my mind the best case scenario
Think its a fair selection myself. Maybe he thinks like me that the Churdle is tailor made for Oscars,fast run race on decent ground. He aint had that this season and thats what he needs to produce his best.
Think its a fair selection myself.Maybe he thinks like me that the Churdle is tailor made for Oscars,fast run race on decent ground.He aint had that this season and thats what he needs to produce his best.
Put it this way,the way he travels i dont see him getting outpaced and he stays well.Its of course possible he wont be good enough on the day,but i think he can be on your side at that price.
Put it this way,the way he travels i dont see him getting outpaced and he stays well.Its of course possible he wont be good enough on the day,but i think he can be on your side at that price.
For me he just sits pretty when not much else is going on. As soon as push comes to shove he finds very little and he hasn't got a turn of foot off a slow pace. Something says to me he wants further & soft ground. I'm not totally knocking him he's a nice horse but I think he will get mashed up in the Champion Hurdle.
For me he just sits pretty when not much else is going on. As soon as push comes to shove he finds very little and he hasn't got a turn of foot off a slow pace. Something says to me he wants further & soft ground. I'm not totally knocking him he's a
no way he wants soft and further ,just dont see that at all. Decent ground and a fast run 2m will be perfect imo,he may get mashed in the CHurdle of course,but then again given what i think he wants,i think hes a big player.
no way he wants soft and further ,just dont see that at all.Decent ground and a fast run 2m will be perfect imo,he may get mashed in the CHurdle of course,but then again given what i think he wants,i think hes a big player.
agree with budd here oscars well travelled like a dream in the neptune and looked like a champion hurdle horse to me ,still a length up at the last he may or may not of won ,but 2 miles in a fast run champion on good ground he should suit , looks a decent e.way call at 25s nrnb , just reminds me of the way hardy eustace was campaigned in that he was placed in a good few unsuitable slow run irish grade hurdles and when he came to the champion hurdle he suprised nearly everyone !
agree with budd here oscars well travelled like a dream in the neptune and looked like a champion hurdle horse to me ,still a length up at the last he may or may not of won ,but 2 miles in a fast run champion on good ground he should suit , looks a d
Oscars Well has raced over 2m 5 times and lost every time, you really think he'll break his duck in the champion? Raced over further 6 times won 3 on soft and heavy and would prob have won Neptune. Where's the evidence he wants 2m on good, just don't wash with me!!!
Oscars Well has raced over 2m 5 times and lost every time, you really think he'll break his duck in the champion? Raced over further 6 times won 3 on soft and heavy and would prob have won Neptune. Where's the evidence he wants 2m on good, just don'
Well I've looked for hours at this race and for me it is about the fav however 2-1 is no price. Although I am usually against 5 year olds in this race I just think we may have a great bunch here. I was going to back Rock on Ruby as I think he has improved and will keep doing so, but the fact is that Nicholls sees him as his number 2. I think Grandouet will be the best of Hendersons 3. The bet for me though is Zarkandar it's a shame we have not yet seen him yet but I think he will give HF the most to do. If HF does not turn up and Mullins switches Thousand Stars then I think he could have a great chance at a big price.
Well I've looked for hours at this race and for me it is about the fav however 2-1 is no price. Although I am usually against 5 year olds in this race I just think we may have a great bunch here. I was going to back Rock on Ruby as I think he has imp
Basic gist is Hurricane is the one to beat but can't tip him, Oscar's looks out and out 2 miler and needs a strong pace, Neptune is a historically good trial and he was impressed by his last run which he believes proved he has the pace for 2 miles(?!) then states trainer has a good record and he jumps quickly
Basic gist is Hurricane is the one to beat but can't tip him, Oscar's looks out and out 2 miler and needs a strong pace, Neptune is a historically good trial and he was impressed by his last run which he believes proved he has the pace for 2 miles(?!
Picking holes/negatives in any 25/1 shot is easy. Segal isn't saying "this will win" ; he's saying it has more like a ~6% chance than a ~4% chance - and personally I'd agree. But he'd be well aware that there is still a 94% chance of being wrong, and then all the snipers can say "terrible selection" etc. But that's what 'value' punting is about. And at the end of the day Segal-types will do a lot better long-term that the "Hurricane Fly, Big Bucks, Sprinter Sacre - BANKERS"-types.
Picking holes/negatives in any 25/1 shot is easy. Segal isn't saying "this will win" ; he's saying it has more like a ~6% chance than a ~4% chance - and personally I'd agree. But he'd be well aware that there is still a 94% chance of being wrong, and
Stotsfold, maybe he such advise in his column the minimum price to be taken also then. He is 16/1 best now and I imagine still being bet off the back of the tip
Stotsfold, maybe he such advise in his column the minimum price to be taken also then. He is 16/1 best now and I imagine still being bet off the back of the tip
A horse that has never won over 2 miles is very unlikely to break his duck in the Champion Hurdle. Can someone give me an example? He is a 33's shot and ppl are going in at 16's. Up to them but just my opinion.
A horse that has never won over 2 miles is very unlikely to break his duck in the Champion Hurdle. Can someone give me an example? He is a 33's shot and ppl are going in at 16's. Up to them but just my opinion.
from racing post pricewise today ........if hurricane fly gets to the race he probably wins ,but at 25s oscars well is no forlorn hope to give the fav a run for his money . jessie harringtons 7 yold looks a 2 miler through and through and i dont think hes had a race run to suit him yet . at last years festival he tanked along in the neptune and was still a length in front when smashing through the last hurdle and losing all chance .he probably wuld not have won that day but he had expended so much energy through the race that it is clear he needs a fast run 2 miles . look at the record of neptune runners in the champion istabraq and hardy eustace won both and peddlers cross nearly won both , and those with longer memories will recall that french holly being placed in a champion having won the 2.5 mile contest the previous season . basically the race appears to be a much better trial than the supreme for the following years champion -and oscars well looked the best horses in the neptune . he is a big price because has stuggled over 2 miles this season but he ran a blinder at leopardstown over christmass ,again tanking into a clear lead turning for home before tireing after the last . that was clear eviedence he has the pace for 2 miles and a strongly run race at cheltenham in march on better ground could easily bring about masses of improvement . oscars well jumps quickly and his trainer has a very good record aty the festival ,so i expect him to be a real factor in the champion .beating hurricane fly will be tough but at 25/1 each way or 20s with ladds nrnb seems a decent bet . henderson holds a strong hand but the fact he isnt aiming oscar whiskey at the race suggests he feels he has a big chance of beating hurricane fly with 1 of his 3 . of the 3 spirit son is the most interesting but he was beaten in the supreme last year and he is priced up on reputation rather than form ,and last years triumph winner zarkandar has more solid credentials . the form of the triumph could have not worked out better and nicholls has said he wants to win the race most and has been training zarkandar for the one prize all season he could be a major player but he has had a few niggling problems this season and with his form working out well thre is not much juice in his price .
from racing post pricewise today ........if hurricane fly gets to the race he probably wins ,but at 25s oscars well is no forlorn hope to give the fav a run for his money .jessie harringtons 7 yold looks a 2 miler through and through and i dont think
Mullins interview on ATR pointing Thousand Stars to the Champion although stating the Aintree race will be the one that suits him. I have taken 38 on here, hoping Hurricane does not make the race.
Mullins interview on ATR pointing Thousand Stars to the Champion although stating the Aintree race will be the one that suits him. I have taken 38 on here, hoping Hurricane does not make the race.
I cant have the fact he hasnt won over 2m is a negative. He never even ran over 2m last season, so nobody can argue the trip didnt suit him. The Deloitte is only 2m2f and he p1ssed it.
He just hasnt been right this season. It has nothing do with the fact he's been runing over 2m. Had he run in three 2m4f races this season he wouldnt have won any of them either. I think its a bizarre point tbh.
I cant have the fact he hasnt won over 2m is a negative. He never even ran over 2m last season, so nobody can argue the trip didnt suit him. The Deloitte is only 2m2f and he p1ssed it.He just hasnt been right this season. It has nothing do with the f
CCM it's hardly a positive that he hasn't yet won over 2m is it? When he won over 2m2f it was heavy yet we are lead to believe he wants good, bit hard to swallow if you ask me. More chance taking on Big Bucks if you ask me.
CCM it's hardly a positive that he hasn't yet won over 2m is it? When he won over 2m2f it was heavy yet we are lead to believe he wants good, bit hard to swallow if you ask me. More chance taking on Big Bucks if you ask me.
Shockster. Agree, its clearly not a positive! I just dont think its a negative. The way races are run in Ireland means thaat even some of the 2 1/2 mile races on heavy ground arent as much of a stamina test as a CH.
I havent seen anything to suggest he would get 3m tbh.
To clarify, I dont fancy the horse in the CH at all, but I do think it will bring out the best in him. He proved he handled the track and ground in the Neptune. I cant see how anyone who watched that race doesnt think he will like the ground?
Shockster. Agree, its clearly not a positive! I just dont think its a negative. The way races are run in Ireland means thaat even some of the 2 1/2 mile races on heavy ground arent as much of a stamina test as a CH.I havent seen anything to suggest h
I am not saying he won't like the ground, however I don't believe the slower ground in Ireland he has encountered this season is the reason for his defeats, as he has previously proved he acts on it.
I am not saying he won't like the ground, however I don't believe the slower ground in Ireland he has encountered this season is the reason for his defeats, as he has previously proved he acts on it.
I dont either. I think the reason he has been beaten is that he hasnt been right. If he gets to the race 100% he'll run a big race. But that is obvioualy a big if.
I was also going to add that he showed more speed than Rock on Ruby in the neptune imo. More speed than probably any other horse in the race. he tanked along all the way around and wanted to go faster if anything. And probably didnt get home. Even if he had jumped the last, I think ROR may well have outstatyed him.
I dont either. I think the reason he has been beaten is that he hasnt been right. If he gets to the race 100% he'll run a big race. But that is obvioualy a big if.I was also going to add that he showed more speed than Rock on Ruby in the neptune imo.
oh he wanted to go faster alright,just watch him during the race,jockey had a bit of a fight with him at times. He aint short of speed and he does stay further than 2m,not a bad cocktail for a Churdle. He may not win the race,but it wont be the distance or good/soft ground that will be the reason,other horses simply being better on the day will be. I aint got a problem with taking 20,s on the chance that he will be in the right form in March,if he is its a good price imo.
oh he wanted to go faster alright,just watch him during the race,jockey had a bit of a fight with him at times.He aint short of speed and he does stay further than 2m,not a bad cocktail for a Churdle.He may not win the race,but it wont be the distanc
Mo Farrah 'travels easily' in the 5k - no one suggests he should go back to the 800m.
The horses breeding is more stamina oriented than speed, and wasn't (IMO) stopping at the end of the Neptune (last hurdle error notwithstanding.
The question for connections still should be: do we have a crack at Big Bucks in the World Hurdle and get place money and maybe, if Big Bucks has an off day, get the win or stick with the plan, go for the Champion despite (IMO) there being 4 or 5 (at least) more legitimate candidates to finish ahead of OW, who he keeps failing to beat over 2 miles, a distance, dress it up how you like, he has never won at.
But there we go, opinions are like rsoles etc and, for trading purposes, I have backed him for the CH, when it became obvious he was going to be the Pricewise pick - so the damned beast is doing my head in every which way at present!
:)
Mo Farrah 'travels easily' in the 5k - no one suggests he should go back to the 800m.The horses breeding is more stamina oriented than speed, and wasn't (IMO) stopping at the end of the Neptune (last hurdle error notwithstanding.The question for conn
Fair enough. As you say, each to their own. I dont really have a strong feeling on whether or not he would stay 3m. And whilst I agree the World Hurdle is a softer option, purely based on which race wil be run to suit OW best, I think the CH is the right pick.
But agree he has very little chnace of getting placed. So in that sense, I can see whay anyone would say its the not the right choice! Still cant forgive him for last year, costs me a small fortune
Fair enough. As you say, each to their own. I dont really have a strong feeling on whether or not he would stay 3m. And whilst I agree the World Hurdle is a softer option, purely based on which race wil be run to suit OW best, I think the CH is the r