Cheltenham Festival
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following on from the lively debates sparked by the pricewise gold cup selections that will hopefully continue for a good while , tom segal selects his champion hurdle hope in the next week or 2 .
if we can second guess him there is a good chance of a pre race profit and also we can gleam snippets of info and views of like minded posters in the search for value for the festival that should help us all .
we know he is going for a biggish priced value selection ,so thats going to rule out the fav hurricane fly who is also the subject of some doubt about his wellbeing having missed 2 engagements in ireland this season, he is the reigning champ and a worthy fav but pricewise will not be putting up a short priced horse like him .
grandoeut is second fav at around 6 s but he has lines of form tieing in the likes of zarkandar and unnacompied and these are bigger prices but i think he may swerve these 3 due to the prices and record of 5 year olds ,spirit son looks a bit short for what he has achieved so far although he is improving .
binocular has had enough chances but we know roughly what he is capable of and i cant really see tom putting him up although you cant rule him out , thousand stars is surely better over further and has the world hurdle option , rock on ruby is interesting in that he is improving and has run to a high standard with his close 2nd to binocular with overturn behind ,he could well improve past binocular and go close in the champion and at 12s he could be in toms sights .
the one who interests me and is the type of horses tom could put up is jessie harringtons oscars well he has been running well in unsuitable races and reminds me of how hardy eustace was campaigned in the season he won his 1st champion i.e running in the 2.5mile festival race as a novice and dropping back in trip the following season ,and running well and being placed but not winning in slowly run races in ireland .
he was usefull last season and was possibly unlucky not to win at the festival when blundering when holding every chance at the last hurdle in the race ( neptune?) won by first liutenant with rock on ruby in second, at around 25/1 in the shops he appeals to me as a decent each way bet especially with laddies non runner no bet insurance .
will tom put this one up ? what are your views ? as ever good heated reasoned debate welcolmed,if youve got a view put it up! its all about opinions .
if we can second guess him there is a good chance of a pre race profit and also we can gleam snippets of info and views of like minded posters in the search for value for the festival that should help us all .
we know he is going for a biggish priced value selection ,so thats going to rule out the fav hurricane fly who is also the subject of some doubt about his wellbeing having missed 2 engagements in ireland this season, he is the reigning champ and a worthy fav but pricewise will not be putting up a short priced horse like him .
grandoeut is second fav at around 6 s but he has lines of form tieing in the likes of zarkandar and unnacompied and these are bigger prices but i think he may swerve these 3 due to the prices and record of 5 year olds ,spirit son looks a bit short for what he has achieved so far although he is improving .
binocular has had enough chances but we know roughly what he is capable of and i cant really see tom putting him up although you cant rule him out , thousand stars is surely better over further and has the world hurdle option , rock on ruby is interesting in that he is improving and has run to a high standard with his close 2nd to binocular with overturn behind ,he could well improve past binocular and go close in the champion and at 12s he could be in toms sights .
the one who interests me and is the type of horses tom could put up is jessie harringtons oscars well he has been running well in unsuitable races and reminds me of how hardy eustace was campaigned in the season he won his 1st champion i.e running in the 2.5mile festival race as a novice and dropping back in trip the following season ,and running well and being placed but not winning in slowly run races in ireland .
he was usefull last season and was possibly unlucky not to win at the festival when blundering when holding every chance at the last hurdle in the race ( neptune?) won by first liutenant with rock on ruby in second, at around 25/1 in the shops he appeals to me as a decent each way bet especially with laddies non runner no bet insurance .
will tom put this one up ? what are your views ? as ever good heated reasoned debate welcolmed,if youve got a view put it up! its all about opinions .
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Foyles agree with what you think his selection/selections maybe,Rock On Ruby looks to have improved again,but at prices think he may well go with Oscars Well at 25s backed him in Neptune last season at decent prices. On goodish ground, and like you point out has been running in slowly run soft/heavy going in Ireland. Think better ground and faster pace will suit, also trainer been out of form for good few weeks as well.She is good at preparing them to peak for the big one.At 25s is worth a nibble e/w, but if Hurricane Fly shows think rest running for place money?
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yes stevo if a fully fit hurricane fly shows he will be the one to beat no doubt! he has an air of invicibility at the moment but as we all know its horseracing and anything can and often does happen ! the thing that concerns me with the fav is the lack of runs this season and missing those 2 engagements ,w.mullins said he was not quite right and may run soon but he has missed a few festivals and the only ones who know exactly how it stands with him are connections ,
so with that in mind 25s each way oscars well at ladds nrnb appeals more, good luck . |
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No chance he'll pick Oscars Well. It will be Spirit Son or Zarkander (or possibly both)
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Unaccompanied is a big price relative to Grandouet and Zarkandar and has certainly achieved more than the latter this season.
Thousand Stars is a huge price on here and a fair price NRNB since he probably only runs if Hurricane Fly doesn't. Overturn is massive for a Grade 1 winner this season, from a top stable (reminds me of Punjabi). Similar for Voler la Vadette, although she's a doubtful runner or may go for the mares race. At a huge price, Final Approach is not the worst 100/1 shot in the world. |
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Zaidpour could also be an improving dark horse - though it's dangerous to have so many Mullins horses on the list.
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Looked at So Young, but same applies as Zaidpour and both may be better over further. I think all credible candidates have been mentioned already and 12/1 Binocular will do for me. Unpredictable yes, but 2 runs in the Champion read beat 1/2l and won. Henderson all being well will have him ready.
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I fancy Zaidpour to get a place in the World Hurdle if he went the staying route
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I'd expect him to tip Zarkander and/or Unaccompanied myself
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I would personally go for Spirit Son at 8/1 NRNB. I think he'll go off second fav, and if the Fly doesn't turn up he'll go off fav. Henderson has been quite vocal about him recently, and he looked mighty impressive at Aintree; and as mentioned, the Supreme is working out really well.
Paul Nicholls still thinks that Brampour has got a chance, according to a recent Betfair columm. And don't be too hasty to write off Brampour, though I see the Betfair market has, as he is trading at 95 for the race! We took a chance of running him at Ascot a week after his excellent third in the International (where Harry couldn't claim his 7lb), and it didn't come off. But we will bring him back a fresh horse and see where we are; the likelihood is that he will run before the Festival and that will tell us where to go. I think he might go for Overturn ew. 40/1 ew for a Grade 1 winner, only 4 lengths behind Grandouet giving him 4lbs and probably over the top when running in the Xmas Hurdle. I don't think he'd beat the Fly or Spirit Son off levels, but he's worth a shout for place money. |
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I think it will be Spirit Son . We value on Grandouet has gone now . I was thinking today of piling in to both SS and the Fly - 2/1 a place SS and if the fly rocks up is anyone really going to get near him ?
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strontium...ive backed finalapproach at big odds looked to have them on the stretch in that 4 runner race(forget the name irish grade 1) didnt look to stay 2m4 to me drop back to 2m can see him run a big race..not entered atm though
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binocular still the most likely winner if the fly doesnt line up, great price still at 12's,
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I think backing Spirit Son now is a good bet tbh, especially 2/1 a place NRNB. Can't see his price being any bigger than 8/1 from now until the festival.
Incase the Fly doesn't turn up everyone's odds will shrink, including Spirit Son's. If he wins his trial run (Henderson says it is about 3 weeks away and could be the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown and will be long odds on judging by Binoculars last two runs in it), then his odds will shrink. I personally think the Barry Geraghty would choose Spirit Son over Grandouet as well, which again would effect his odds. He chose Spirit Son over Sprinter Sacre in last years Supreme (a lot probably went on behind the scenes though), but it shows he must think a lot of the horse to have to even think about it!! Henderson saying things like "Grandouet has done it this year, but Spirit Son might be a bit special", and Geraghty saying "A horse that I’m mad about. Although he was very good on the run up to Cheltenham when he was second to Al Ferof in the Supreme Novices' he was the baby of the pack that day. The penny really dropped from there to when he won next time at Aintree and beat Cue Card 13 lengths over two and a half miles. I can tell you that the work he does at home is unbelievable, very few could go with him. He’ll be fine back at two miles and definitely has the right credentials to go into the big league." shows how well regarded he is. |
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I think it will either be Oscars Well or Unaccompanied.
Similar reasons to Foyles for the first one - run OK in unsuitable conditions all winter, and stepped forward markedly last time. Could just surprise a few on better ground and with Harrington bombing back to form. Unaccompanied just looks too big based on this year's revelations. She is plainly very good and seems to have improved. She was a very cosy winner of a good Grade One last time and is laden with stamina as well as the ability to quicken, which bodes well for the Champion. Obviously she has the 5-y-o and mare stat to overcome but she is built like a tank so on one score I don't think there is much to worry about. Her price compared to Zarkandar and Grandouet is massive. I don't see how Tom could possibly put up either Spirit Son or Zarkandar to be honest. How can he tip a horse/horses that have not been seen since last season and who are trading shorter than others that have won Grade Ones this season and are currently rated higher? |
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Totally agree with you there Tom
Would be very surprised if he was to tip up a horse who hasn't even made the track yet this season They have both had setbacks which isn't ideal for a tilt at the C.H I also agree in that I think his selection will be Oscar |
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Sound reasoning Tom. It's an interesting race - it gets blown wide open if Hurricane doesn't turn up or turns up unfit, but at the moment he really makes the market.
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Spirit Son e/w at 8's NRNB is the bet for me also. Would be disappointed if he wasn't placed tbh.
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Fairly sure segal gave oscars a healthy write up in the weekender a few weeks back didn't he?? or maybe i am getting confused and he was bigging up the real article?
either way i cannot really see pricewise tipping any of the horses that are single figures. zarkandar's triumph form is franked ever which way you look at it, however, he is the only horse not to have shown he has trained on, having not run yet. could be 4/1 after comeback win. no way would he tip binocular. thousand or whiskey won't be running (though segal does often tip up a possible runner). so for me he can only logically tip unaccompanied. he tip it for the istabraq hurdle and there is some scope in the price at 14's for me. that or Oscars 1pt ew. |
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It was The Real Artical he was bigging up at the start of the season MC. He was actually talking down Oscars a wee while back after he got beat at Punchestowns.
I agree I can't see him puting up Oscars at all based on his form this season, and for me I think he'll select Unacompanied, who as you say might still represent value. I recall he put up Asian Maze a few years back, really talking up the mares allowance. Unacompanied recieved 3lbs in the Triumph off Granduet and Zarkander, this time it will be 7lbs?? Theres no way he could select anything that hasn't been out yet. For an out of the ball park selection, what about Micky Dee. |
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Reading this thread, Rock on Ruby seems to be the forgotten horse which seems odd. I'd pay little attention to the Kempton form although it saw him beaten by only a neck to previous CH winner, Binocular. This is a horse that is proven to come up the hill and open to all sorts of improvement.
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Agree with Glossy
Rock On Ruby looks far more the real deal than Oscars Well, who has done nothing to suggest he's a CH candidate. On breeding, last seasons Neptune performance and likely prize money to be won, OW should be aimed at the World Hurdle. |
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Glossy knows his onions imo.
 Is there enough meat on the bone for Tom to tip him at 12/1 ? Probably. But I can see why he may favour something more exotic. |
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That's the Pricewise question isn't it. If he were to tip the most likely winner he'd probably tip Hurricane Fly, but he's looking for the best value.
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By his own admission, he's looking for something that will be shorter on the day
Well, if he tips it, it's almost guarranteed to be QED |
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the fly at 7/4 with lads nrnb.if he shows up fit and well(wp wont run him unless he is) he will be 4/5 at least.so he fits the criteria of one shorter on the day?
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would think he would go for Unaccompanied as well.
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Zarkandar. Given the form of last year's Triumph he'll halve in price if he wins on his return.
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Zarkandar. Given the form of last year's Triumph he'll halve in price if he wins on his return.
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Anyone have any more ideas about this?
Small moves for Spirit Son and Zarkandar, but I can't see him tipping a horse which hasn't been seen yet. Unaccompanied is the other one to shorten slightly, and my guess is that he'll tip the mare. |
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yeah dmts probably people trying to anticipate his tip i think it will be unacompanied or oscars well think the gold cup moves started about 4.30 last week, we will see .
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He picked Mille Chief last year, so I suppose he doesn't have a problem picking 5 year olds.
I've made my case for Spirit Son, but yeah, I think it will be Unaccommpanied. My thinking is he can't pick something that hasn't run - that rules of Spirit Son, the Fly and Zarkandar. He won't pick something "fairly" exposed, so I think that rules out Binocular and Overturn. I don't think he'd pick Thousand Stars or Oscar Whiskey because they have other engagements possible. That leaves Grandouet, Rock on Ruby, Unaccompanied and Oscars Well. Unless he's got lots of improvement, its hard to see Oscars Well reversing the form with Unaccommpanied. I think Grandouet will be too short, so I think he'll pick Unaccommpanied or Rock on Ruby. |
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oscars well just gone 20s from 25s lads nrnb
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It'll be ROR,Unaccompanied or Oscars Well.
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i will wittle that down to 2,take out ROR.
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As Unacc may run in the Mares,im going for OW as his pick.
Fair chance as well imo,will relish the conditions of a Churdle i reckon. |
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Imagine if it was Bino. JP would be furious!
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That he would my friend |
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Budd, why would she run in the Mares ffs when she has just won a Grade 1 over 2 miles. The Mares is worth Jack.
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already backed him budd like you i think he has a fair each way shout .
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