There will be e/w alternative,and that could well be a big priced one,and one that is run to finish in the places,as has happened often in the past.
Any horse that tries to win the race besides the 2 favs will not be placed imo.
I am presuming by the way that Grand Crus aint running,but if he does he imo makes it a 3 horse race.

There are 2 that still interest me at big odds that i have backed,trouble is they are tied in with the novices that have been running not that well - Quel Esprit and Jessies Dream,so its hopeful at best really.

has anyone told Kauto he's 12?

Bud although I agree with you regarding CC.  I have to say the stats are massively against the top 2.  Quel Esprit could be anything or nothing and it's form doesn't tie in with last years novices as it fell twice, therefore it is unexposed.  Jessies Dream unfortunately ties in with a very poor generation and I could not have it.  Nicholls is training What A Friend for gold Cup as stated in todays Racing Post and as he was a nose behind Kauto last year, he'll do for me.

Kauto has fallen more than once, is he a bad jumper?

I said earlier he often has to tip something for the sake of it, said this could be another one. IMO it is

I took 33/1 NRNB after the King George and am happy enough with that. I don't think 20/1 is great value especially if it's ante post. There must be a 50/50 chance he won't run FFS

The idea of price wise is value betting, this IMO of course, is anything but

14/1 now ante post for christ's sake. Laughable

budd according to hobbs he didnt travel or jump as well as he usually does in the king george   and if he runs and jumps and travelles like he did at kempton then he will obviously struggle to make the frame in the gold cup  ,he might not even run in the gold cup if he dissapoints in his trial ,but the game is all about ifs and buts ,lets put it another way what if he jumps and travels and is 100% spot on for the gold cup , my take on it is that at the festival most  horses are going for it 100%  and primed for the big day and as a result jump better and travel better ! as they are much fitter and have been brought to thier peak for the big day  some exeptions obviously .

Quel Esprit 5 chases 2 falls, 1 brought down completion rate 40%

Kauto Star 30 chases, 2 falls, 1 unseat, 1 pulled up ccompletion rate 87%

Bit of a difference would n't you agree?

Nah, mate - I was being facetious, not so dogmatic that i'd dismiss him on that limited evidence but I'd want to see him complete once (or even twice) before I thought about backing him - if I miss out on him at a big price, sobeit

You can come on here and say you told me so.

33s lads nrnb shockster or 40s with the risks attached good to see someone going against the crowd .good luck he is unexposed and if his jumping is sorted then who knows .

Foyle, I'm on What A Friend and a few quid on Tidal bay lol, hoping Nicholls can weave his magic with either. Both under radar as in the shadows of his other stars.

foyles,
he did not jump well at exeter either,but i take your points about Hobbs comments mate.
Lets wait for his next run then,no problem with that.
At least if he dont stay when hes right then he wont run in GC and you get yer money back.

Wellchief, I hope he goes for the Racing Post Chase at Kempton. Then we'll see if he stands up where he should go.

Foyles - Totally agree with what you are saying regarding Captain Chris.

To me he did not run like a non-stayer at Kempton, he just didn't travel at any stage and his jumping was bad. I think, given that he improves considerably in the Spring (or at least it seems he does), it was to his great credit that he grabbed third after such a laboured display.

Most horses with genuine class stay all day IF they can get into a rhythm. That is the major 'if' with him as he wouldn't have a hope unless he jumps better, but if he was to do that I think he has the class to stay the trip. Whether he is good enough is another matter but he really was the obvious one in my opinion.

As ever, I am a big fan of Pricewise and do respect him, but these ante-post features are about finding horses that will go off much shorter on the day, and to that end he's already on to a winner if he turns up, which does look likely at this stage.

Bud - you could argue that finishing 20l behind Kauto Star and Long Run when he was never comfortable at any stage of the race was a better performance than finishing 7l or whatever it was behind Ghizao getting 10lb at a similar time last term. He went on to win the Arkle like a very good horse.

Anyone that doubts it is possible for him to improve to play a hand in the Gold Cup should really study his form last season. There was not really any possible suggestion that he could reverse form with the other major players but he did, and he did it well, while looking as though the two miles was too short for him. Am sounding like I'm in love with the horse, and I'm actually not. Have never backed him, but just feel he is the one that would be silly to dismiss out of hand.

On another note, I agree with the person that said Synchronised at 171 is a total joke. Does anyone actually believe that? I'm sure he has improved, I'm sure he is not just a soft ground plodder. But I'm also sure he is a good bit further behind Kauto and Long Run than those figures suggest.

Guess I'm with Bud on this one CC not for me.

Tom,but last year he had form at the distance required or a bit further.Now he has to prove he stays a lot further and failed at his only attempt,big difference mate.

At the end of the day Pricewise has tipped up a horse out of form,that is not travelling or jumping well,has just got thrashed by 2 of his opponents and has never run well at the required distance or anywhere near it.

^ Kauto has just tweeted to say he's had a nice carrots and oats dinner with a couple of polos for dessert. He's off for a kip now but looking forward to his canter in the morning though he is missing his companion on the gallops Master Minded.He's catering with something called Big Buck's now who seems to think a lot of himself

@Kauto8Star

I think that everyone saying that the GC will definitely be Kauto and Long Run forecast is faintly ridiculous, and I'd be really surprised if that's the case. I can't have Grands Crus winning the race either, because I just don't think he'll stay, and because of his inexperience. Long Run definitely deserves to be favourite, but he's far from bombproof, and I think if Captain Chris wins his prep, which must surely be the Ascot Chase as he wouldn't want to be taking on either Long Run or Time For Rupert and Grands Crus, then he'll definitely be single figures and would deserve to be.

As for next week, I think the Champion Hurdle horse will be Oscars Well. He's been running in 2 mile races with no pace which wouldn't have suited at all, while still running well, and given the improvement he showed in the Spring last year, and his liking for Cheltenham. He'll be much better suited to a much stiffer track, and a stronger pace which will hopefully be guaranteed by Overturn, and I think 25/1 NRNB is a great price.

Bud,

You might very well be right here, but I guess the major point I am making about him i simply that he could well be capable of major improvement on what we have seen so far from him this term (based on previous Spring improvement), and most importantly of all, I don't think for one second that the King George showed he didn't stay!

Maybe he won't stay the Gold Cup trip but I don't think the King George can be used as evidence against him. When Kauto Star got beaten by Denman he barely held off Neptune Collonges for second, and again last year, he only just got home in front of What A Friend in third. After those performances people are saying he probably won't get home well enough to win it again this year but they are casually neglecting the fact that he stormed up it to win in superb style in 2009 when regaining the throne.

I personally am convinced this is because he jumped and settled into a rhythm on that occasion, unlike the times he was defeated. And so it is for most horses - if you don't find your rhythm you can be made to look a non-stayer at any trip, which is why I think Captain Chris did pretty well to snatch third when he looked like being pulled up with almost a circuit to go.

Major 'ifs' and 'buts' and as I've said before I'm not particularly in his camp, but I do feel there is every chance he'll get the trip 'if' he jumps better and travels more kindly.

Me too Bud! He might be a total non-stayer but time will tell. These reasoned differences of opinion are what makes the forum work!