Cheltenham Festival
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Cheltenham Pricewise
Cheltenham Pricewise
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Its strange that everybody sees captain chris as a ryan air or gold cup horse, everybody knows he's a spring horse and he won the arkle by 2and 3/4 l and then followed up by winning a 2 mile race round punchestown. An arkle winner has a good record in the champion chase and id imagine that it would be the best route to take for the present.
it must also be remembered that only for a slight set back this time last year Sizzing europe would have run in the king george and he ended up running and winning the champion chase |
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Agree ba - if he were mine he'd run in the Champion Chase.
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I've backed him for the QM, and if he were mine I'd run him in that too. I know that contradicts what I said before, but I think you probably need to be a 2 1/2 miler to win the QM and its the only race for a 2 1/2 mile horse at the Festival.
I think he'd have a cracking chnace in it. |
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The owner of captain chris is liable to make up his mind the night before QM which is a problem with ante post. although Ive also have him backed for champion chase and would certainly backed him again at 14's wit PP if i believed there was a 75% + chance of him running. unfortunately thats not the case at present.
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Owner is a she, at least officially.
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It was a HE that claimed all the plaudits at Cheltenham, and he stated on that occasion that the decision to go for the arkle was made the night before.
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Pipebet on where Captain Chris will end up:
Gold Cup 8/11 Ryanair 3/1 QMCC 4/1 Tripwise the Ryanair would be my call, but this year I would deffo go for the QMCC. Take out Sizing Europe and the rest are nothing to be scared of. Very patchy look to the field! The third fav was beaten by Captain Chris in last year's Arkle and arguably had less scope for improvement. The Ryanair looks like being the best renewal so far this year so I would swerve that. As for the Gold Cup? 3m2f with an uphill finish against two of the best Gold Cup winners in decades? Ludicrous. The horse may not have been at it's best over Kempton's sharp three miles last time but it hardly screamed stayer did it? |
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Well the markets would suggest a 3 point win bet of Kauto Star @ 9/2 spoils (only 5.1 on here but 3k wanting to back with still 10 weeks to go) and a 1pt win 1pt place of Captain Chris @ 20/1 generally (is only 18 on here now) though CC could be unlikely as he was 25/1 this afternoon so with a bigger price gone, it is poss he will get a mention in the column write up but may not get a tip.
Of the others, it is very hard to work out, there has been some very creditable stabs in the dark on this thread today! |
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It's Captain Chris at 20/1. Don't think there's another one. I'll take the credit since I put it up first
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I'm assuming Pricewise has gone for Captain Chris as Oddschecker has a sea of blue over it. Can anyone confirm?
Thanks |
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Soz just seen it posted on here!!!
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Who did Segal go for?
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SIZER he went for CAPTAIN CHRIS it was the obvious one in fairness...
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Yes thought he would due to people speculating on here however i was'nt sure. Btw i'm not a pwise follower i just needed to know incase he selected my horse.
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No problem with the tip or the reasoning but feature was woeful, Segal only covered 5 horses effectively dismissing chances of all the others and not even trainer comments for Time for Rupert and Weird Al who are,after all, in the first 6/7 in the betting.
Don't know why they did n't wait until next week for the enties either except that RP was only 64 pages as it is today and they were desparately short of copy. |
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I hope Captain Chris an arkle winner takes the route of an arkle winner should, by contesting the champion chase.
Unless he proves he's capable of staying prior to cheltenham taking on kauto and long run in a gold cup could destroy the horse. So owner, think long and hard, be sensible take the champion chase route this year and maybe when one less superstar i.e Kauto star is around, take the gold cup route next year. |
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^^^^^^ Totaly agree. It wont make any sense what so ever going straight for a gold cup for an unproven stayer..
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They're obviously intending to run in the Gold Cup barring accidents or he would not have tipped it.
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Hobbs other horse will be going QM imo.
Seagull flying off to the cuckoos nest!! |
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http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/01/03/RACING_Chris.html&BID=465
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How Captain Chris performs in his next race will determine whether he lines up in the Ryanair Chase or the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March.
Philip Hobbs' charge won the Arkle last season but has endured an interrupted campaign this term, unseating Richard Johnson in the Haldon Gold Cup on his reappearance and missing the Peterborough Chase due to an unsatisfactory scope, before finishing a fine third in the King George on Boxing Day. The handler told At The Races: "I think he's got a lot to prove as yet. His runs in the spring last year were a big improvement and we were pleased with his comeback in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, even though he unseated." He added: "The only disappointing thing in the King George was he's normally a horse who jumps and travels very well and he didn't do either, although he stayed on all right. "The finishing position was satisfactory but throughout the race he didn't nearly perform as well as normal and we're hoping that he maybe wasn't quite A1 - although we wouldn't have run him if we didn't think he was. "The (Gold Cup) trip is a bit of a concern but he's a better horse on good ground, which is likely at Cheltenham, although finding it before then is the problem. He also has a slight inclination to jump slightly to his right, he doesn't lug right during the race. "But, having said that, it was a very good performance in the Arkle so it's a minor disadvantage. You would want everything in your favour for a Gold Cup, though. "The Ryanair is definitely an option and I'd very much like to run him beforehand as that will tell us which direction we are going to go. "He has three options. The Argento at Cheltenham, the Aon (Denman) Chase at Newbury or the Ascot Chase over two-five." |
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^ a few too many 'if,buts and maybes' for me there I'm afraid - we'll know more after his next run s'pose - especially if it's the Ascot Chase back at 2m 5f.
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Value has definitely gone for the Gold Cup.
He was ok last week for small stakes 33/1 NRNB and 25/1 NRNB, but I wouldn't be backing him at 14's, especially if you don't use Laddies NRNB if the Ryanair is still an option. |
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The Argento and the Denman (Aon) could both be spectacular - Grands Crus, Long Run, Captain Chris, Burton Port all being talked about as possibles.
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14's!!!
The worlds gone mad!! Will be in the Ryanair imo,thats his race and distance i feel, and he wont win that either the way hes been jumping this season!! |
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I'm a huge fan of Tom's but feel he has had a bad day at the office with this one. He's usually first to steer clear antepost of a horse that has other potential targets which CC clearly has. Agree with other comments that the contenders weren't properly analysed at all. Why spend a week shouting about this article and then produce something very shoddy?
Along with many others I believe Tom has got stuck in his thinking with Synchronised (it needs a bog...it's too slow etc). Fine based on what we knew about the horse before this season BUT look at it's two runs this season. Two PB's and neither on soft ground. Could it not be that the horse has improved a lot over the summer? At about the same price now I think you'd be mad to back CC over Synchronised. In any case Long Run and Kauto are streets ahead of the rest so I'm getting stuck into laying CC on here and I'm pretty hopeful that it won't even turn up :) |
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even if this horse lines up in gold cup, i cudnt have him at the prices, long run and kauto are so far ahead of anything else in the field, i thought cc done well to get within 20 lengths at kemp, think it wud be more like 30 length around chelt, tom made a mistake with this one i feel
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i dunno what is the funniest captain chris @ 14's or synchronised ' 10's both must be for comedy value and nothing else! if either win gold cup its time for us all to pack in me feels
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The thing I have learnt about Tom is that he picks horses that I cannot see winning and then they do, but actually looking down the field he has probably picked the right one. The price has gone now and I find it difficult to find a long shot. I don't see Long Run winning another Gold Cup. Surely Kauto cannot win a 3rd at the age of 12. Grands Crus wont run. Synchronised not good enough. With the thought that he will win the Argento at Cheltenham in a few weeks my choice is Time For Rupert at 26 on here.
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u dont see long run winning another gold cup? that is a joke rite?
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Think theres a clear danger of people not seeing whats bang in front of their eyes!!
Long Run and Kauto Star are streets ahead of anything else around on all known form,and in particular this season. They have both won the race before and at least one maybe both will win it again,well i will be major suprised if at least one dont,put it that way. FWIW i would spend my time concentrating on more difficult races than this apparent 2 horse one. |
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o.k lads lots of differing opinions here and a bit of a similar situation to last year with people dismissing long run for last years gold cup down to his jumping and dissapointing run in the paddy power. and look what happened there ! ........
ive backed captain chris at 16s yesterday with lads nrnb before pricewise tipped it, and im more than happy that t.segal has confidence in him as i regard him as one of the best judges in the game ,tom is putting up what he thinks is a value selection and as he says capt chris could relish the distance of the gold cup long run most likley winner but still has jumping issues and jockey a concern ( not rode a winner under rules this season so far)and at the price to many issues ,kauto a 12 year old now (not saying he cant win but he has had 2 hard races and kempton suits more than cheltenham + how is he going to be ridden made all and exposed long runs jumping on flatish tracks but will he be ridden the same over the gold cup trip?and at the prices and age he must be taken on imo . then we have the possibility of the novice grans crus being thrown in to the mix ,exieting as he is, at the prices i would look elsewhere ,yes i know he got to withing spitting distance of big bucks over 3m in the world hurdle but so did time for rupert and also tidal bay in the last few years but they have hardly set the world alight ,something has to finish 2 nd to big bucks and he just seems to do just enough to win and it flatters horses who finish close up to him . plus there is every chance he will take the rsa option . has synchronised improved massivley since last year ! he may well have or did he just beat a poor lot in ireland ? i think he has improved a lot from last year and a lot of us had in our memories of him plouging through the mud in that long distance chase a couple of years back and had him down as a plodder ,but if he carries on improving he will be a real threat as he has had not had many races over fences and improvement is likley . time for rupert has been slightly dissapointing tbh but has ability and could still improve but he has a fair bit to find imo . in captain chrises favour is the fact that he seems to find his best form in the spring and he usually jumps and travels (something that was missing at kempton)he is going for one of the gold cup trials and we should see him ridden differently i.e more prominently and if he dont stay then thats the beauty of nrnb nothing lost. synchronised is the other one i would be interested in at around 12s nrnb at lads .good luck . |
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Long Run stayed 3m at Kempton last season,CC failed to do that this season.Long Run also jumped ok round Kempton,CC failed to do that as well.
So we have a non stayer at 3m that is not jumping well being tipped up for a Gold Cup over 2 furlongs more. If thats a good judge i give up!! |
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denman- There have been a lot of great horses to win the Gold Cup and yet in 40+ years only Best Mate and Kauto Star have won 2.He should not be as short as he is and I can just see something going wrong. Remember Pricewise is about finding value I would expect different horses if I had asked Which horse will win the Gold Cup?
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yeh,but at least pick one that will stay 3m 2,and not one thats just failed to stay 3m.
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steamship, take alook at my post on pricewise last years selection, some good selections but also a few shockers, i dont think theres any value in captain chris at the prices, have to agree with wha budd has to say
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I agree Budd - two horse race. Three if Grands Cru runs.
Though I do believe as the race gets closer, both Kauto Star and Long Run's apparant weakness will become more publicised and punters will search for an each-way alternative. Being ahead of the game in that respect is profitable too. But right now, I find it hard to expect a result other than a Kauto Star / Long Run reverse forecast. |
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Bud you're spot on and i like the fact you're not **** footing round it. He might as well have gone for Sommersby as he was running down CC at the end, and he didn't stay either.
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its all about opinions lads and most have differing ones ,budd as i said before its dangerous to assume that a horse definatly wont stay ..........ill give you an example i had a veiw that either imperial commander or cooldine would win the gold cup a few years back ( 2 horse race between denman and kauto according to most) had read in the media or somewhere that imp commander wouldnt stay and the doubt was planted in the back of my mind,anyway had a multiple sizing europe 13/2w arkle , weapons amnesty 12/1w rsa big zeb 12s w champ chase in singles doubles trebles and a £20 e/way acca ,the acca would have come to the best part of £400,000, i stood for cooldine on the basis that imperial commander would not stay and who do you think pricewise tipped .........imp commander at 20s ante post, so i never say that a horse will definatly not stay ! and sureley hobbs would have a better idea than any of us !
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Foyles fair play...I do like it when someone stands up...a fair read...
Have to agree I think he is a fair shout Captain Chris myself and is, was the value in the race with a realistic chance... I do totally agree with the Big Bucks stance although I wouldn't be underestimating the young grey as think he is the classiest horse seen out this season..others will disagree but he is where I am in the race.. Think Long Run doesn't jump well and John Wayne on board who seems to love to go in lane 8 is not helping his progress...others will argue but i think he is an awful 5-2 shot as I also do about Kauto Star who at around the 4-1 people really need there heads testing...he is 12 will not get the easy lead he has done the last twice and is 12...lets hope he returns home safe. Time for Rupert well... lets just hope for his backers who still see him beating the 4 mile winner 8 lengths as decent form?? He looks as slow as a boat to me...beating the 145 fair handicapper off of levels The Giant Bolster who has barely got round in his life 1 and 3/4l has done nothing to change my mind... Sychronised himself beat the 5 miler Quito de la slow and the non staying Rubi light who maybe wasn't at his best on the better ground at Leopardstown to achieve the joke rating of 171 from the racing post...Distances can often be exaggerated by none stayers and Quito just looks so slow it isn't funny...12-1 is one of the most horrendous prices I have seen...horrible. Weird Al who has only seen the track 10 times and is going the right way under better handling (no offence Ian) appeals to be placed if sound and he is a worthy 25-1 chance... Captain is certainly a decent shout here and he was always going to need the run last time and I'm not a believer that the track suits him ideally anyway...he ran better than the bare form and he also has top class form in the book already, his form has been franked by Medermit who ran well in a top handicap under a big weight at Cheltenham...trip an unknown as it is with a lot of the runners. For me Captain Chris is a fair shout by pricewise but Grands Cruise is the play if running, with Weird Al a potential long shot...those taking the short odds on long Run have balls for me as do those that think Kauto Star will be able to get up that hill at 12...miracles do occur however and I will be shot down if they are the first 2 home but that isn't going to happen is it????? |