Cheltenham Festival
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Tom starts his Ante Post selections on Tuesday with The Gold Cup. So before he puts his selection up what would you go for at this stage, if you were doing that column?
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Kauto Star is the value call, looks a blatant two horse race to me
Think he'll put up Grands Crus though |
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Burton Port
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I'm gonna say Synchronised. Headline to read "Lexus romp makes Synchronised the pick"
Sometimes you read the ante post column and you think he doesn't really fancy anything and is only tipping something for the sake of it. Think this may be one of them Had Rubi Light not been beaten in the Lexus I'd say him. Jessie's Dream is another possibility but the poor the fact that last year's staying novice form looks completely stink puts me off that |
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I think he'll put up Captain Chris at 25/1. To my eyes, he just wasn't fully fit and then stayed on, and he's traditionally been a better horse in the Spring.
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*in the King George
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Jessies Dream
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Agree with Captain Chris - given the improvement he showed in the spring last year and that the King George was his first run after a minor injury, he ran pretty well really given that he looked beaten after a circuit.
Tough race to bet in ante-post though - if Grands Crus goes he looks perfectly reasonable but Tom can't put up an 8-1 shot with at least two other viable options at the Festival and tough to justify either of the front two at their prices at this stage. |
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hope you're right dtamutants
I took some 33/1 NRNB before the Lexus |
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He has to tip something or people won't buy the paper!
He's also not afraid to put up something outside the box - like Pride of Dulcote last year. He says his philosophy is to find something that will start shorter on the day. So I reckon Jesses Dream or Burton Port. |
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Captain Chris has by far the most potential to improve into the Gold Cup winner.
He is a proven Grade 1 winner at the of Festival, and I can see him improving from his Kempton rub sufficiently to trouble Long Run and Kauto Star. The 25/1 is massive value. He will go off nearer 6/1 after he wins his next race. Always lay off on the day! |
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Right now it would be Time for Rupert EW NRNB with Lads at 20s
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Right now it would be Time for Rupert EW NRNB with Lads at 20s
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Time for Rupert wins the Gold cup ill take my trousers down live on channel 4
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captain chris will not go off 6-1 ffs he'd have to break the ruddy track record next time out to get to 10s
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cant wait to see the look on mullins face as he relises ruby has left the fly too much to do.
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Captain Chris is not jumping well.He was outclassed and outstayed in the KG.
Not good enough for the GC imo. Ryannair maybe? |
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What A Friend - A nose behind Kauto Star in last years Gold cup and 10 times the price. He will go there fresh not having had 2 hard races like Kauto or Long Run. Segal will pricewise it.
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Like the race itself this may well be a two horse affair. There are only two that he could put up....Synchronised and Jessies Dream. He thinks that the latter was the best horse in last year's RSA and given it's 33-1, that will be his pick of last year's novices. He also thinks Synchronised is much improved and under-rated. He'll probs put them both up, whilst being greatly fearful of Long Run. Expect him to be a little cooler on Kauto Star this time.
This will read as if I've proof-read his article by this time tomoz :) |
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Captain Chris looks more like a Ryanair horse to me. If he was mine, that is the way I would be leaning.
What A Friend didn't look too happy back hurdling at the end of October. Seems to me like a horse who's falling out of love with racing but maybe that run was a one-off. Jessie's Dream is Ireland's ;last hope. Be nice if he at least shaped up into a contender but the staying novices from last season are turning out dire. Time For Rupert - No Way!! Already been put in his place byKauto Star and Long Run at Haydock. No reason why he should turn that form around, is there? By process of elimination, I'm leaning towards Burton Port and Weird Al as alternatives to the front two. Although, as I read on another thread, Burton Port looks like he really needs a stamina test. And Weird Al, well not sure he's got the required class. Still, those are the two who might represent "value". But I am struggling to see what's going to put it up to Long Run and Kauto Star, other than maybe Grands Cru, who is far from a confirmed runner at this stage. |
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High street layers, shorteneing up all the posiible candidates I see.
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I'll give you Weird Al - he would be my pricewise reserve in case either of the trainer comments indicate doubts over Synch or Jessies.
As an aside, I think Tom is the best tipster there has ever been. End of. Though I too would expect to profit from getting early dibbs on all those juicy trainer comments about the leading contenders before they appear in print ! |
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I struggle to see Captain Chris getting the trip given he was on the stretch after 2 miles at Kempton. I'm sure he'll improve for that run, but he looked miles behind KS and LR.
I can't see Seagull tipping Synchronised on price grounds. He likes the horse, the horse is an improver but he's no value at 10 or 12/1 even as an each way shot. Don't worry too much about Burton Port being a real stayer - he is, but the Gold Cup is a real stamina test and certainly will be this year if Kauto's front running tactics continue. Long Run is also an out and out stayer! BP could well stay on for a place at least. |
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Hey Howdi.
Ok maybe 9/1 not 6/1!! You wouldnt have thought Captain Chris could win an Arkle after his defeats in the winter months last year, so his King George run was very creditable, especially with his interupted prep. He also seems to be a little better in the Spring. Connections are also saying the Gold Cup is the target, so he should turn up! - always a bonus!! |
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Remember I'm asking what YOU would put up not Segal. I want to see if any of us can beat Pricewise.
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He may go for QDLR. Extra 2 furlongs and stiff track right up his street imo.
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At 33/1, i'd go for QDLR, then.
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Captain Chris at 25/1, spring horse on goodish ground, obviously trip a concern?
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Captain Chris shortening in most places, maybe he's the choice? I backed him after the King George at 33/1 ew NRNB with Laddies. Thought he was going to be pulled up at one point, and next time I saw him he was staying on for third.
Outside of the top two in the market, and if Grands Crus doesn't run, I think Captain Chris is best of the rest. I've also got Jessies Dream at 40/1 (but not NRNB). If he turns up, I think he'll be travelling one of the best after about 2.5 miles, but it then depends on what he's got after that. |
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CC did not stay 3m at Kempton,how on earth will he stay an extra 2f at Cheltenham??
All he did was go past the weakening Somersby who certainly did not stay after travelling far better than CC. Also His jumping werent great at Exeter and same again at Kempton. If hes the choice Pricewise needs the men in the white coats imo!! Jessies is interesting,but needs to be seen pretty soon,and with the novices being pretty bad,has to prove that at least one of them has improved markedly.Doubt he will go for him though. Quel Esprit is one that could get tipped up,at least he has been out and won a race,unlike Burton and What a Friend. |
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budd dangerous to say capt chris wont stay,i learned a very costly lesson a few years back when i took notice of some opinions that a certain imperial commander wouldnt stay in the gold cup , imo if hobbs thought he wouldnt stay (im not saying 100% he will stay ) but surely he would have said straight away queen mother or ryanair ,but they seem happy ,things could change granted and maybee he wont stay but i think its a chance worth taking and generally he is a good jumper of fences, possible he wasnt !100% fit on boxing day and may be spot on for the gold cup .hope pricewise dont tip him as his odds will fall and i want to go in again .lads nrnb only 16s at moment .
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Looks like he is tipping 2
The tag line says see what value betS pricewise picks. |
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Synchronised, Captain Chris and Jessie's blue across the board on oddschecker
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Foyleswar - I agree with your point regarding Captain Chris. Budd, you may be right, but I think rhythm is the most important thing in determining whether horses stay certain distances and CC never seemed to be in one at Kempton. There are a number of reasons for this, including him not being good enough, but just as likely in my opinion is that he was not cherry ripe after an interrupted preparation and that he is possibly not at his best until the days lengthen.
I have never had a bean on this horse before and am not especially in his corner, but he is the one to my mind with the biggest scope for improvement and stamina would not be what put me off him. I suspect he will not be quite good enough but would have place possibilities if improving as he has done throughout previous campaigns. |
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agree with ttf.
could he put up weapons amnesty..i would. i personally think its gcru or kauto to win |
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sorry i meant agree with fft
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A complicating issue with Captain Chris is Wishfull Thinking - they will presumably be kept apart.
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Definitely strontium. Unfortunately for connections, I think they are both best over 2 1/2m. And one of the two will end up suffering.
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Incidentally, it's still making me laugh that Simon Holt called him Craptain Chris in the King George commentary.
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