Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices
Supreme Novices
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Replies: 833
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Apparently Stepstofreedom did an amazing piece of work yesterday and had Oscars Well in trouble.
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Think Hes the winner dt,bloody tricky though!!
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Think you are right MB. And hopefully we'll get that at Punch.
Heard the same re STF. Robbie Power is waxing lyrical about him, not that that counts for a great deal! |
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Cash and go misses the race so im going to have to think again
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I read the news on here about a few people loving the workout of STF last night.
Then went and watched its bumper win at Aintree and his performance last time at Chelt, not massively excited by the Chelt race maybe the slow pace was against him. I keep looking at the race and each horse seems to have a ? mark about it, having witnessed a few of the less flash horses winning this am tempted to believe Montbazon will outstay these and battle coming home. Not sure STF or Darlan who had a monster fall last time and even GC will travel well but hopefully the faster pace will bring about more improvement in Montbazon. Cinders and Ashes just been mopping up heavy ground wins 5th in the bumper its okay form but I cannot bring myself to punt this horse. Sous le crieux or however it is spelt would be interesting but believe he is going over further. Feel Montbazon ew even at 10/1 feels a gd price |
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Hazy Tom ,confirmed runner.Anybody got ant thoughts surely he wants further?
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Last 2 runs were dissapointing for Hazy Tom, but looked good before that. Beat Its A Gimme and IAG then beat colour Squadron with Mono Man 3rd. So that gives him a squeak. Also may improve for the better ground and strong pace. Worse outsiders IMO.
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Cheers,Shockster @ 150's ,I think your probably right.1pt me thinks.
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Plenty of support for Darlan which is encouraging, still can't stop worrying about that fall & that hill though? Would he have won if he's stood up? Was he travelling the best of all of them coming to that second last? Does he have a problem with the track? Has anyone got next Saturdays winning lottery numbers?
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5,9,13,22,31,44.
You owe me a house! |
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Maybe but problem is we'll all do those numbers now and not sure where the house will be - having said that can't believe you haven't put in 8
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Shucks Sint will have to do those numbers now as we all know whats gonna happen! Downside is there'll be thousands of winners & we'll probs get 90p each. Are you still sweet on Montbazon? I have him as a saver it would make me evens on the race.
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Last year I had this race sorted in my head more or less, expected Sprinter Sacre and Spirit Son to place but have to admit Al Ferof I'd forgotten about.
This year....haven't a clue, the 4 y/o still entered muddys the picture though suspect they will go a different route. I'm gonna plump for a 1pt e/w on tetlami and hope. |
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 Sweet enough Solving without being certain if you know what I mean. |
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Well I'm glad someone is confident, my winners are Darlan, Dylan Ross & Tetlami in that order so I'm about as confident as one of those Wilderbeast about to jump into the river I think it's called a leap of faith!
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All the comments on the SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE from the preview evenings..........
Paul Nicholls: We will possibly run Prospect Wells. He has had a breathing op since his last run and is a big price at 33/1 on his best form. Very classy at home, and goes there with a decent chance, allowing for poor effort last time. Prospect Wells runs. Ran well early in season just getting beat by Steps To Freedom. Hinterland could run. Philip Hobbs: Colour Squadron is fine after his fall but that was not the ideal prep. He has schooled well since so no reason why he shouldn’t perform on the day. He has not had the strongly run race he needs yet. Colour Sergeant was fine after his recent fall, and should go very well. Paul Jones (Cheltenham, Festival Guide): Simonsig is the most likely winner if he runs here but I fear they will run him in the wrong race. Looks like he is crying out for a fast-run 2m given his cruising speed. In his possible absence then Midnight Game appeals most as he is coming right at the right time, is the Mullins number one and expected to improve again for better ground than he has faced in Ireland. Paul Jones thinks Simonsig will run Neptune, but if running in the Supreme would win. Steps to Freedom has the best form, whilst Midnight Game is improving Andrew King (Racing Post): I think Darlan will run and has a major chance as long as his confidence has not been affected by his bad fall last time. I’ve also a sneaky feeling Cinders And Ashes will run very well. Paul Binfield (Paddy Power rep): Galileo’s Choice was the best of the Irish Charlie Longsdon: We will run Vulcanite and Hazy Tom. My horses are not right at the moment so you can see from both of their last runs. I was disappointed with Vulcanite at Newbury as he is 7lbs-14lbs better than that. He wants a strong pace and leading last time was hardly ideal. The owner wanted to take him to a valuable staying prize in Dubai instead but thankfully David Redvers has managed to change his mind which is good for me as he runs here. I hope you will see a far improved performance off a strong pace. I think we will reverse Kempton form with Tetlami. Hazy Tom wasn’t right at Ascot so forget that. Dickie Johnson thinks a fast-run 2m will really suit him when he is right so we have taken him out of the Neptune. Andrew Tinkler: Simonsig schooled very slicky this morning and has the pace to run in either the Supreme or Neptune. They go very, very quick in the Supreme so I would like to see him run here as it would really suit him. He is a real two-miler that would see it out very well. I schooled Darlan today and he went very well and showed no ill effects of his bad fall. Tetlami is by Daylami and has the traits of many offspring of his sire in that he only shows you half his hand as he does what you ask and no more. He has ten times more ability that he has shown. Kevan Minter (The Colonel): I always find this a hard race to predict. I know some shrewd judges are on Steps To Freedom at 14s but it worries me that he will not have run since November. Willie Mullins (phone): Very sweet on Midnight Game, but stressed good ground is essential,and we havent seen the best of him by a long way, the faster the ground the better. Sous Le Cieux wants a trip if the ground dries. Midnight Game goes for the Supreme Novices. Needs good ground. Expecting a big run. Ruby Walsh: likes Darlan, Noel Meade: Preferred Galileo’s Choice but did say that Dylan Ross would be going and will be better on good ground although he only gave it an each way chance. Nina Carberry: Also went with Steps to Freedom, she wouldn’t rule out Dylan Ross either. Patrick Mullins: didn’t think his father’s Midnight Game would be the obvious one here, and we should take a look at the bigger priced Allure of Illusion. John Francome: Tetlami Jessica Harrington: Confident of Steps of freedoms chances. Steps to Freedom goes straight to Cheltenham. Decided not to do a prep run at Dundalk. The faster the ground, the better. A great bet! Tom Segal: Midnight game Davy Russell: Trifolium "Best novice in Ireland ". Midnight Game’s form is not good enough. Trifolium has more solid form but better ground may not suit. Henry de Bromhead: Prospect Wells ew Mike Cattermole: Cinders and Ashes Jim McGrath: Gallileo's choice David Pipe: Catch Tammy a lot to do, Close House lightly raced probs run in this or Neptune. Neptune more likely. Tanya Stephenson: Irish dominated race. Darlan had a heavy fall. She likes Cinders & Ashes. Feels Darlan would have won the Betfair. Joe Tizzard: Loves Cinders & Ashes could be a Haydock bog horse but D McCain feels he's not. Could shake them up. Paddy Power: Loads of money for Darlan. Likes Cash & Go who should be running at Leopardstown for a bit of a school round. Scoped badly last time. Money for Darlan, but fancies Steps to Freedom. Ruby Walsh: He has no stand out horse in the first, each way at best. Darlan is his preferred ride. Sous Le Cieux needs a longer race. Barry Geraghty: 2m4f would be better for Simonsig. Darlan was impressive in last gallop. Donn McClean: Steps to Freedom. Tony Martin: not impressed with Steps to Freedom. Highlighted Midnight Game’s chances although his main fancy too was Darlan, Damien McElroy: not impressed with Steps To Freedom. Sweet on Cinders & Ashes and to a lesser extent, Charles Byrnes’ Trifolium. This is so open a race. Kevin O’Ryan: not impressed with Steps To Freedom. Keener on Galileo’s Choice and then Trifolium but said he’s had strong vibes from the Darlan camp and thinks this could now start as low as 3/1-4s favourite on the day. Ted Walsh Jr: gave a mention to Steps to Freedom and Montbazon Walterstown Panel (Damien McElroy, Kevin O’Ryan, Tony Martin, Ted Walsh jr) believed Jessica Harrington’s Steps to Freedom could be better at a flatter Aintree or even Punchestown. |
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All aboard the Darlan express!! Yes he can jump Yes he can power up the hill Yes he would've won the Betfair Hurdle Yes he'll be 3-1 on the day Yes I'm on drugs & No I'm not that confident really. If you take out his last run & his Cheltenham run his comments in running read unextended,very easily & never off the bridle - these rose tinted glasses are great I'll take them.
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solvingthepuzzle
06 Mar 12 15:55 Joined: 06 May 10 | Topic/replies: 258 | Blogger: solvingthepuzzle's blog All aboard the Darlan express!! Yes he can jump Yes he can power up the hill Yes he would've won the Betfair Hurdle Yes he'll be 3-1 on the day Yes I'm on drugs & No I'm not that confident really. If you take out his last run & his Cheltenham run his comments in running read unextended,very easily & never off the bridle - these rose tinted glasses are great I'll take them.  I hate fooken drugs takers, dealers everything to do with illegal and controlled substances  Drugs ruin lives - FACT And don't subscribe to that sort of talk even if typed out in humor! |
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drugs save lives ask any hospital....
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This is a real headscratcher this year, moreso than in recent memory?
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yes really tough
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Anyone know much about this French horse Divapour? I'm guessing from the betting he doesn't have much of a chance, but I don't know how to judge the French form really.
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Knuckles wrapped but it was in jest & if you've no sense of humour then perhaps you could just ignore it. I don't think for one moment anyone actually thought it was true, I'm anti drugs myself & in this context it was used as a 'figure of speech'. Your reaction is knee jerk in my opinion but if that's how you feel I'll keep it sombre in future. Have a lovely day & stay happy.
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I like Steps To Freedom in that it has some course form and liked the way he battled to make sure he got his nose in front. Don't like the fact he's not run since though and although not 'friendless' he's hardly getting much hype.
I was at Newbury for the Montbazon win, wonder what would have happened if Colour Squadron had not tipped up as he looked like he was travelling strongly. Not sure I like backing anything that's fallen coming into a race like this, wonder if there's any trends. That saying I'm all over Grumeti in the Triumph so whatyougunnado ;-) |
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On Montbazon @ 14/1 and Colour Squadron @ 16/1. At todays prices Colour Squadron looks the value to me. Obviously an 'F' by his name is not ideal but to my eyes his was a very soft, slithering kind of fall, and nowhere near as bruising as Darlans.
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No problem solving, i know it may seem a little strange now for me to say this but i typed that also in kneejerk humor and i read it back after i clicked the post button i thought feck but thought add better just keep quiet and see if anyone posts anything in response thinking it might just get ignored.Be happy and have a very profitable cheltenham, i know i will thanks to antepost as always  |
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RF I can understand why STF was the early favourite for this race, but he is another one who though unbeaten, has really questionable form imo. That race at Cheltenham has worked out particularly badly and his form with Sailor's Warn leaves him a lot to find
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STS just glad I didn't offend you. At the end of the day we're all here to try & help each other (just don't back the same horses as me & you'll be fine) I think I'm suffering from boredom syndrome horses picked & money down so just looking for some news all the time. I too hope you need a wheelbarrow each day GL.
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With STF i'd genuinely wouldn't be surprised if he won or was beat, like. I respect him, you have to really and the pace of the races was almost certainly against him last time out, but I just dont know if he is good enough, which I guess you can say about many of the runners.
STF looked a monster in his Bumpers, but wonder if some of the other horses have caught up physically? We'll see. Not sure what to make of the news he, a novice, worked all over Oscars Well either! |
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Roobuck, his form with Sailors Warn sin't that bad. He beat him with a fair bit in hand, albeit receiving weight, but he didn't receive one slap of the whip.
If he'd finished 4 or 5 lengths behind Zarkandar, as Sailors Warn did, well that wouldn't look too bad would it? |
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5 day decs tomorrow?
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There has been much speculation re Darlan after his tumble and where he would have finished. Personally I would have him in front of Sailor's Warn and he was giving him 3lb so a 12lb turnaround with STF, that was my rationale.
I have Darlan at 20s but as have said already would not go in again at the current price. That said I would prefer Darlan over STF at both their respective prices. |
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Just watched back last year's race (got goosebups the big gay). Hell of a race, bet the in-running betting was entertaining, the front four home all looked like winning it at one point.
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33 of the 61 entries confirmed
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Will you list them Catch or are they on Post website yet, will check.
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not on the RP yet. Wonder if I have time for a quick shower ;-)
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Next Deadline is Confirmation by noon on Wednesday, March 7th 2012
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no they are too slow!!!!
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PHUCKING COME ON YE B8ASTARDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Putting the 33 in order ffs.........wait
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