Menorah

You can sort of see the point - the 2 m hurdle divison looks weak this year except the fly, the 2 m nov chasers look strong.

Agree,but it dont help the poor punters that were led to believe he was now a novice chaser.
Still,thats antepost,we have to accept the changing of mind of trainers and owners.

Indeed. Ante post punters often seem to think racing is about them - it isn't, it's about the horses, the owners and to a limited extent trainers. I think connections owe it to punters not to be deliberately dishonest, but no more than that. They are certainly entitled to say nothing, and/or to change their minds as circumstances change. AP punters (and I am one) are getting the value we get because of all the extra uncertainty.

Im one as well mate,and would not have it any other way.Have to take the rough with the smooth in this game.

Good decision imo, CH looks weaker than the Arkle etc atm

Fair play to try and pick up this prize.. but why is hobbs telling people not one week ago he was going for a chase in december. Disgusting how trainers carry on..Although he will struggle to win this under a penalty anyways, I wouldn't tear up the Arkle tickets just yet.. Peddlers fans will be pleased though..

Al Ferof fans wont be too bothered either,although personally i thought Menorah jumped really well until his mishap at the last,and was looking forward to his next race over fences.

His fencing debut is still a source of much pain for me, had my biggest bet of the jumps season so far on him, he jumped great fwiw, but I can see why they are doing what they are doing. The mullins' have known the measure of this fella since his bumper days with Tom and be it Cheltenham, Aintree or Punchestown, I believe they will have something to beat him.

Certainly see where they are coming from but it would be sad for the game if this Arkle of all Arkles fails to live up to expectations. It seems to always happen when you are looking forward to a real humdinger of a race that it gradually cuts up. Was hoping the big four or five would all make it this year but the signs are that might not happen already.

see why the decision to take in the bula.
that doesnt mean menorah wont go chasing mind..hobbs has been known to run a maiden novice chaser in the arkle,given that if it wins its a top prize and if not its still a novice next year

Imo the horse is regressive and wont be in first3 in champion hurdle or the arkle.

An understandable tactic, though unlikely to result in victory on Saturday. Never understood the hype last year; Hobbs certainly talked him up, and said he was not right in the Champion though, to my mind,that was his best run. Hurricane Fly saw him off easily twice. He's a 160 odd horse not the 170 plus needed for a Champion. They could earn some nice prize money on Saturday, but it would seem an odd decision to go down the Champion Hurdle route unless his schooling has been woeful since his fall over fences.

Menorah isn't going to beat a fit Fly, but its still 80k for 2nd in the Champion and the other horses that finished ahead of him last year are unlikley to run this time round. Plus its only 80k for winning the Arkle (which seems less likely to me).

it's a wonder why they even bothered going novice chasing in the first place

They hadn't seen Al Ferof and Peddlers Corss then

what do they do when it gets stuffed by Grandouet et al at the weekend? With Zarkandar still to run and who knows who else

You're the trends man. You know 5 yos don't win the Champion Hurdle.

they could still finish in front of him though

I mean if he can't beat Grandouet he will have no chance with Zarkandar and clearly can't beat the Fly. So running in the CH for 3rd/4th place at best? Even Clerkes Choice could improve past him, he was 1.5 lengths behind in the CH 2011...

he's one of those difficult to place horses unfortunately

correct.

I actually think 4/1 is a cracking price tomorrow regardless of the weight. I'm yet to be convinced by Grandouet, I suspect Overturn could prove the biggest danger if over two recent runs. Menorah still only 6 and although perhaps a little unlikely could improve for another year on his back

Back to the drawing board with this one..I'd say the Arkle is well and truly back on the radar now although he ran well under his big penalty..

ok I'm convinced that Grandouet is a contender now. Could have been the weight with Menorah but that seemed a little disappointing to me. Don't think it matters whether they target the Champion Hurdle or the Arkle don't think he'll be winning either

Menorah ran exactly as I predicted. He was not disappointing. The form of the Greatwood and the Bula 2010 was weak as I said on several threads. I even gave the forecast on another thread and said lay Menorah in the place. Just not good enough. Go chasing and see what he makes of that

Yep,has to go back chasing.Bar the last i thought he jumped really well on his debut,worth another chance for sure.

completely right he was gonna hose up that day, not gonna get near the front of top hurdle races so what you gonna do? go back to plan A

Menorah had come here having unseated on his chase debut last time and he could now revert back to going over fences. His trainer Philip Hobbs said: "We'll probably send him back over fences. He's run well but that's not a Champion Hurdle performance. He had an infected foot and maybe we could have had him fitter."

Good call Judo - you were spot on about today's race. How do you feel about Grandouet's chances in the Champion given your liking for trends?

judorick good call but youve made yr point move on

howdi
he even gave the forecast...that's special!!

well it is a long term thing using trends in the Festival races so I will be looking to oppose:

5yos
Triumph Hurdle winners
Supreme novices winners

So although I thought Grandouet would win the Bula yesterday I can't at this point think he is going to win the CH. I remember how everyone thought Detroit City was going to overcome the trends when he was 5 yo after gagging up in this race.

Should one of the horses manage to overcome the trends then it's just one of those things but as I say as a long term punting strategy I will stick with the strong and long established ones.

(there are a bunch so called trends that are mere coincidence - like 'fav in William Hill Chase never wins' - which I don't pay attention to. But age, which races are negatives, requirement for course form, hurdles/chase ratings minimum requirements, having won in Class 1 or similar need to be paid attention to)

I made a huge profit at HQ yesterday but won't be telling anyone

and remember truimph hurdle winnders never win the Champion ask Katchit.

not about never

it's about how many will win on average and when you add those up across all the races in which there are stong trends and multiply by the number of years you bet on them, then you can gain an edge

there are always exceptions of course

thanks pal ive been following the game for donkey years. i know all stats backwards!

if that's so

why say "tell that to Katchit"?

what just to be sarcky or what? pal

think we have got the message about your stats and trends judo,appreciate you trying to help but i think enoughs enough myself

well why do people have to take the p1ss then?

judorick.......if you don't mind me saying and i do so with the best of intentions....the problem is that when you deliver your posts....even though you probably don't intend on doing it.....you come across with a slightly preaching patronising sanctimonious tone.

don't shoot the messenger but you did ask!

Well am glad I'm not the only one...

For me I think a lot that has been said by Judorick about Menorah is drivel anyway...and a lot of other things..

Was Menorah a good lay on Saturday at 5-2??yes it was it got beat... Was it on all known form i don't think so...


Personally for me, to carry 11-12 in a competitive Greatwood was a top class performance and always will be.. The only problem with it, is Johnson through the absolute sink at the horse and it appears to have left its mark..his run in the International was also ok winning by 4 lengths off of a slow gallop..he then ran below expectations in the Champion and was definitely showing signs that all wasn't right with the horse..and without a prep run...

What I find strange on here is people thinking they are a hero tipping me a lay at 5-2 on a horse who had something to prove, on the back of what they say, that Menorah's form wasn't worth anything...

For me his Supreme was still a brilliant run on his 6th career start, Get me out of Here has proved himself under a big weight (148) in the county having been cheated with all year, Oscar Whiskey was also in behind... and his first 2 runs last year were also top class...

So for people on here to crab his form when it is obvious that all hasn't been well with the horse since the International I find hard to take...

Personally I think Menorah was a Top Class Hurdler, who has just lost some form for whatever reason...and hopefully will prove to be a top class Chaser...I think he will be...

Pretty much agree with all of that,think the horse has had undeserved criticism.
Whether he proves to be top class over fences is open to doubt of course,but his only chase to date was good i thought,till the last,and will be very interested to watch him next time.

See you Then was second in the Triumph and won 3 Champions, inc at age 5. Binocular would have won the Champion at 5 if Henderson has not been snowed in, in January, IMO (he's even said it himself, and was astonished Punjabi beat him) and in the same race 5yr old Celestial was beaten a neck.


All of this said, I am typically against 5yr olds in the race.

I think Harry makes fair points about Menorah. I thought he'd run much better on Saturday even with the penalty, he was good in his first 2 runs last yr and won IMO a good supreme. Hobbs seemed certain he was below form in the Champion (which i did not think he would win) and he was below form in Ireland (i had rationalised he was over the top, as he was when he ran at Liverpool the month after winning his supreme). I liked his 1st run at Exeter but possibly it has left a mark or it is possible the horse in his last 3 runs is not the upwardly mobile horse who won the supreme then his next 2 runs at Cheltenham. I did think a tip-top menorah would be the one to beat on Saturday but did not back him. In retrospect, I agree with Harry, going into the race he had questions to answer, and clearly seems to be not quite the horse he was for some reason or another.

I explained in my post that in my opinion there were very good reasons to believe the two pieces of form that people thought entitled Menorah to be short in the betting were in fact very weak. The Greatwood 2010 never worked out, barely another horse done anything out of that and he won off a mark of 151 which is more relevant than 11 stone 12... and he won by a neck. Beating Cue Card who was a novice turned out to be worth even less and I stated that he was 5th in the Topspeed ratings. All the clues were there. I did not base anything on form after the Bula and did not crab the horse in any way.

Plenty of people said "Menorah deserves to be favourite based on form" well I said I thought the form was no good and that the horse would not even reach the frame. I did not get lucky, I did not guess, I made an assessment of the relative strength of the form and came to a conclusion which turned out to be pretty accurate.

and as for people taking the piss and saying "enough is enough" well fck you. Who do you think you are? The fecking headmaster telling the kids how to behave? I will say what I want and I wont be told to **** up by you ta very mu

Then some **** says "tell that to Katchit" as if that freak win (when SE was trading ODDS ON in running before going lame) disproves the stat. What are we supposed to forget how many 5 year olds have run in the CH and got beaten just coz one of them fluked a win?

and then the classic "thanks, I've been at the game for years and know all the stats backwards" - so you have nothing to learn then clever clogs, you know all there is and can't learn from anyone else? So why you on a forum then if you dont need to share and learn.

You guys ought to go spend a few months on the OLBG forum and see how they work together to improve their knowledge rather than attacking fellow FMs. You might learn something

sheesh

Interesting take on the Greatwood, though I do not share that opinion.

Well I think the Greatwood in which Bothy running off of 127 and had had a prep race is good form, who then followed up with seconds in the totegold trophy off of 138 and then second to a very well handicapped horse in the Coral cup off of 140 is top stuff..

Any Given Day who was beaten 6 1/2 lengths was second to Karabak in a Grade 2 next time and has shown to be decent and won a handicap this year off 155, so thats good..

Olofi beaten 7 lengths was second again this year..

Get me out of here was thrashed..although he wasn't trying..

Orssippus was thrashed and was third in Coral Cup..

General Miller has run well in good races thrashed..Sanctuaire won a Scottish Champ hurdle off of a 4lb higher mark..all these horses he gave weight and a beating...are they all bad???


You talk so much Garbage Judorick and get all your info by reading Paul Jones book and then decide which horse fits the criteria..you don't actually read form...

And as to your argument about 5 year olds in the Champion Hurdle just tell us all how many have tried and how many had any chance going into the race??

I don't need you to tell me, cause I know, which flaws your pathetic argument..

And if you are a follower of top speed ratings you are also a mug they are garbage....they are just plucked from the air along with most of your dialogue...

Just answer me one question Judorick??? How many 5 year olds have tried to win the Champion Hurdle down the years?? How many had a chance?? being a Trends man you will know this straight off the cuff...

Sorry Bothy had had 2 prep races so was fit apologies...

Judo.
Trouble is you come across as rather condescending in your posts,and talk to people as if by reading a fecking book you know more than anyone else.
You keep chucking stats and trends around as if we dont know about them.
Most people do know,just dont use them so matter of factly as you seem to,and dont want it shoved at them all the time.

I'm with Buddeliea we don't need to be preached to - forum is for all views.

Then some **** says "tell that to Katchit"

Judorick was there any need to call me that christ it was a light hearted comment. I'm afraid that is out of order and sadly I have banned you as I feel swearing at a total stranger marks you down as a troubled indivual for me.

for those that don't know I have since found out who Judorick is and 99% of you will know who is is as he wasn't popular first time round.

he ain't T O F T Y IS HE....THAT WOULD BE A BLAST FROM THE PAST.

whose TOFTY,and more to the point - whose Judo??

its not good think of the most hated figure from past years...

Kirk??

duffy Joined: 28 Mar 03
Replies: 4343 11 Dec 11 14:40   


judorick     11 Dec 11 14:11 
actually fellas in last years Arkle my bet was a maximum lay in win and place of Ghizao precisely because his hurdle form was way out of line with the others (was rated 135 or something) and was 4/1 SP which was way too short. I often use such the trends to do lays like that rather than backing 1 or two to win.

first of many i believe. 


he's all over aftertimers thread.

Clown.

youve guessed it celtic son has a double account

Celtic Son Joined: 20 Jan 05
Replies: 1299 12 Dec 11 19:07   


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Well no talk of Menorah on here which is surprising??

Have to say I was slightly more taken by his performance on saturday than I was at Taunton...

Thought Will Hills reaction to push him out to 16's after the race was a huge blunder for me not saying the horse is going to win but he jumped much better and is now starting to go in the right direction again...still think he will be a big danger with a decent lead to keep him interested and better ground in the Arkle...Also think he is going to be better going left handed...Be interesting if he goes to Warwick because I'd say he would meet Sprinter...Just wonder whether he would dodge that just to get another confidence booster??

^ Agreed - I expected there to be more made of his win. Was away for the weekend and read he had been nudged out to 16s only to find out this had quickly disappeared when trying to get on.

I find him a very hard horse to weigh up in terms of value, mainly because his chance hinges completely on fluent jumping, which we have yet to see much of. However, I do get the feeling that he is capable and could well jump better in a stronger-run race with more going on. He can make a good shape over a fence and is clearly still very smart - I think he can quicken better than anything in the field (bar the favourite of course) and still think his innate ability makes him a much shorter price.

Very tough one to call as I am tempted to back him but would hate to overcomplicate things in a red-hot Arkle and see my cash wasted after two fences, which is what it would be if he just doesn't settle into a rhythm at Cheltenham.

I have to say tom he is annoying me this thing...am very tempted to load the trigger but have same reservations...just think he will jump better against better company, just whether he still has the class...would like to see him out soon then freshened up for the festival...right handed again then we can look forward to the real horse in the one that matters...he can certainly jump and is tough which will stand him in good stead...

You maybe right though, is he just smart? or can he step up again and be top class like he was as a progressive hurdler not 1 season ago?

He is a real poser for sure. My gut instinct is that he does have the class to win an Arkle - I think he's just had a difficult 12 months or so and although many people believe that was just because he was found out as being below top class, I think his ability to quicken and fight marks him out as a genuine Grade One horse. It's just the jumping that worries me. I am quietly optimistic on that front but it is still putting me off at the moment. The thing is I am wanting to take Sprinter on at the price and am sure he can be beaten by at least one in the race, but that horse or horses will need to jump perfectly to do it!

Ye the same tom...

Well for me this sprinter is going to have to do it in the ruck and has learnt nothing yet on that front...Peddlers at 6's is still big after he pulled muscles and although his banger run against the henderson horse didn't look much at the time minella was going strongly (4 out admittedly) against cue card to make the form look better than at first glance, but I have to say have a huge amount of respect for cue card and think he has the best form on show so far..others will argue but he is looking tougher and should be respected despite the man on top..and the head carriage...the more you go through the race the more questions occur...starting to not like for a betting medium as much as i try...maybe a race to play in running after they have jumped a couple??

Annoying

i was impressed with menorah at the weekend....he is putting some proven class2 horses to the sword very very easily.....i know they are no world beaters but the way menorah is toying with them leaves me thinking there is a lot left in the tank....also i believe better ground and his ability to stay beyond 2 miles is vital....im on

gonna add this fella to my arkle portfolio ! been thinking about this one for a few weeks now and there are  doubts around his jumping but he is a classy animal and had very good hurdles form beating cue card, silviniaco conte, stays well  and one you would want  to have in the trenches with you . shortish price for the champion hurdle last year and with a fast pace guaranteed in the arkle he could get into a rhythm behind the leaders and battle on up the hill and although he has been tipped by pricewise he is still a decent price due to concerns over his jumping .
im going for a positive veiw on his jumping ,had briesner around and may have sorted him out and at the prices a bit of meat still left on the bone .

I agree with you about menorah. The thing about his jumping is that, although he's made mistakes and fallen, his jumping in the main has actually been really good. I have backed him, but I'm just worried about how poor Hobbs has been all season, with what looked to be a really exciting string. I hope he can get a few winners on the board before the festival, as I'm heavily invested in him.