Menorah

You can sort of see the point - the 2 m hurdle divison looks weak this year except the fly, the 2 m nov chasers look strong.

Indeed. Ante post punters often seem to think racing is about them - it isn't, it's about the horses, the owners and to a limited extent trainers. I think connections owe it to punters not to be deliberately dishonest, but no more than that. They are certainly entitled to say nothing, and/or to change their minds as circumstances change. AP punters (and I am one) are getting the value we get because of all the extra uncertainty.

Good decision imo, CH looks weaker than the Arkle etc atm

Al Ferof fans wont be too bothered either,although personally i thought Menorah jumped really well until his mishap at the last,and was looking forward to his next race over fences.

Certainly see where they are coming from but it would be sad for the game if this Arkle of all Arkles fails to live up to expectations. It seems to always happen when you are looking forward to a real humdinger of a race that it gradually cuts up. Was hoping the big four or five would all make it this year but the signs are that might not happen already.

An understandable tactic, though unlikely to result in victory on Saturday. Never understood the hype last year; Hobbs certainly talked him up, and said he was not right in the Champion though, to my mind,that was his best run. Hurricane Fly saw him off easily twice. He's a 160 odd horse not the 170 plus needed for a Champion. They could earn some nice prize money on Saturday, but it would seem an odd decision to go down the Champion Hurdle route unless his schooling has been woeful since his fall over fences.

it's a wonder why they even bothered going novice chasing in the first place

what do they do when it gets stuffed by Grandouet et al at the weekend? With Zarkandar still to run and who knows who else

they could still finish in front of him though

I mean if he can't beat Grandouet he will have no chance with Zarkandar and clearly can't beat the Fly. So running in the CH for 3rd/4th place at best? Even Clerkes Choice could improve past him, he was 1.5 lengths behind in the CH 2011...

he's one of those difficult to place horses unfortunately

I actually think 4/1 is a cracking price tomorrow regardless of the weight. I'm yet to be convinced by Grandouet, I suspect Overturn could prove the biggest danger if over two recent runs. Menorah still only 6 and although perhaps a little unlikely could improve for another year on his back

ok I'm convinced that Grandouet is a contender now. Could have been the weight with Menorah but that seemed a little disappointing to me. Don't think it matters whether they target the Champion Hurdle or the Arkle don't think he'll be winning either

Yep,has to go back chasing.Bar the last i thought he jumped really well on his debut,worth another chance for sure.

Menorah had come here having unseated on his chase debut last time and he could now revert back to going over fences. His trainer Philip Hobbs said: "We'll probably send him back over fences. He's run well but that's not a Champion Hurdle performance. He had an infected foot and maybe we could have had him fitter."

judorick good call but youve made yr point move on

well it is a long term thing using trends in the Festival races so I will be looking to oppose:

5yos
Triumph Hurdle winners
Supreme novices winners

So although I thought Grandouet would win the Bula yesterday I can't at this point think he is going to win the CH. I remember how everyone thought Detroit City was going to overcome the trends when he was 5 yo after gagging up in this race.

Should one of the horses manage to overcome the trends then it's just one of those things but as I say as a long term punting strategy I will stick with the strong and long established ones.

(there are a bunch so called trends that are mere coincidence - like 'fav in William Hill Chase never wins' - which I don't pay attention to. But age, which races are negatives, requirement for course form, hurdles/chase ratings minimum requirements, having won in Class 1 or similar need to be paid attention to)

and remember truimph hurdle winnders never win the Champion ask Katchit.

thanks pal ive been following the game for donkey years. i know all stats backwards!

think we have got the message about your stats and trends judo,appreciate you trying to help but i think enoughs enough myself

judorick.......if you don't mind me saying and i do so with the best of intentions....the problem is that when you deliver your posts....even though you probably don't intend on doing it.....you come across with a slightly preaching patronising sanctimonious tone.

Well am glad I'm not the only one...

For me I think a lot that has been said by Judorick about Menorah is drivel anyway...and a lot of other things..

Was Menorah a good lay on Saturday at 5-2??yes it was it got beat... Was it on all known form i don't think so...


Personally for me, to carry 11-12 in a competitive Greatwood was a top class performance and always will be.. The only problem with it, is Johnson through the absolute sink at the horse and it appears to have left its mark..his run in the International was also ok winning by 4 lengths off of a slow gallop..he then ran below expectations in the Champion and was definitely showing signs that all wasn't right with the horse..and without a prep run...

What I find strange on here is people thinking they are a hero tipping me a lay at 5-2 on a horse who had something to prove, on the back of what they say, that Menorah's form wasn't worth anything...

For me his Supreme was still a brilliant run on his 6th career start, Get me out of Here has proved himself under a big weight (148) in the county having been cheated with all year, Oscar Whiskey was also in behind... and his first 2 runs last year were also top class...

So for people on here to crab his form when it is obvious that all hasn't been well with the horse since the International I find hard to take...

Personally I think Menorah was a Top Class Hurdler, who has just lost some form for whatever reason...and hopefully will prove to be a top class Chaser...I think he will be...