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Cheltenham Festival

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crescent
26 Nov 11 20:26
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Date Joined: 18 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 163 | Blogger: crescent's blog
This years Triumph Hdl looks already to have been a very strong race with quite a few of the beaten horses putting up very good performances on the track this season, namely Grandouet and Brampour. Sailors Warn, Molotof, First Fandango and Unaccompanied have all won as well. Zarkandar did tremendously well to win that race for one of his inexperience so its seems perfectly feasable that there could be a fair bit of improvement to come this season for this beautifully bred horse.
     Hurricane Fly looked a very worthy champion and if he makes it to cheltenham in the same form he will be very hard to beat.Zarkandar has some poor stats to overcome but he looks the best Triumph winner for a few years in my opinion and if anyone can bust a stat its P F Nicholls. 12/1 about this horse looks good value in a race where there seems to be a dearth of plausible candidates.

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Replies: 302
By:
Howdi
When: 26 Nov 11 21:29
hurricane fly turns up yr toast
By:
Wicketd
When: 26 Nov 11 23:17
i think grandouet's worth chancing at the current price (14/1). fancied for the triumph, got to the front way too soon and flattened out, that'd be my only worry. would've possibly reversed form/gone close at aintree, won easily at punchestown and has been impressive this year. would've thrashed CH, and although he hardly enhanced the form today, grandouet would've won as he liked. then cantered to an easy win against useful rivals.

if he gets a soft grade 1 to hack up in, could easily be single figures. i'd rather this improver than binocular at this stage, and spirit son's had a setback.
By:
revedesivola
When: 26 Nov 11 23:41
i think grandouet doesnt stay a stiff 2 miles well enough tbh. i dont see why he should reverse form with zarkandar. zarkandar was overcooked at aintree as kumbeshwars proximity at the finish compared with kempton testifies to!
By:
Wicketd
When: 26 Nov 11 23:51
kumbeshwar took an almighty hold at kempton and set a strong pace. it was the complete opposite at aintree so i wouldn't take that form literally. was also his third run of the month at kempton, zarkandar's first run in uk.

agree grandouet's doubt is his stamina, but then he's a young horse and he'll develop it in time. punjabi hardly looked a ch horse when fading badly in the triumph when going well. think a lot of henderson's horses are quite deceiving in that respect.
By:
magic carpet
When: 27 Nov 11 00:04
The Aintree win came despite the fact that he had a mouth abscess lanced a week before the race.Anyone taking 7-4 on a horse as fragile as Hurricane Fly is crazy and Zarkandar does good value at the current odds IMHO
By:
revedesivola
When: 27 Nov 11 00:33
thats an interesting take wicketd. i just thought at aintree he looked laboured and didnt travel as well as he did on his first 2 runs
By:
Wicketd
When: 27 Nov 11 15:15
i agree zarkandar looked slightly flat, i was just saying that i think the comparison with kumbeshwar's proximities isn't really fair. i don't know why but i feel i need to see zarkandar run again before backing him at the price. grandouet is 14 and we know he's in top form. i wouldnt like to back zark on the back of that aintree win.
By:
Howdi
When: 27 Nov 11 15:58
as per normal in national hunt prices going too silly too early. Largely based on beating nothing.

Grandouet 14s christ Id want 25/33s.
By:
Wicketd
When: 27 Nov 11 18:05
i think it's fair but there you go. i think too much is made of the transition between novice company and top company. take a look at the market. hurricane fly, binocular, overturn and thousand stars are the only horses in the top ten of the betting that were in the race last year.

binocular looks thoroughly exposed and with hindsight beat a poor field, overturn won't be winning and thousand stars needs a bit further. hurricane is a worthy favourite but has had a setback so there must be value in the others. the rest of them are all last year's novices, and grandouet definitely looked up there with the best of them.

what do you see as the value atm, if any?
By:
bigben
When: 27 Nov 11 18:51
If Brampour improves again on his next run he could yet be a contender imo. If HF turns up he wins, but if he doesn"t then it really is wide open.
By:
crescent
When: 27 Nov 11 19:40
I just think Zarkandar has the potential to be a superstar, if he wins his reappearance race he will be 8/1 max. If he is in any way impressive he will be half those odds.
    Anyone know where he will out next.
By:
Wicketd
When: 27 Nov 11 23:15
read somewhere xmas hurdle, anyone confirm that's still the plan?
By:
Howdi
When: 28 Nov 11 00:10
yes to previous post
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 28 Nov 11 00:59
5 year old not got a great record. Unless your name is Katchit. Does seem a weak renewal this year. Hurricane Fly apart.
By:
Wicketd
When: 28 Nov 11 15:37
just went through champion hurdles since 98, here are the 5yo SP's


1998 (istabraq)
12/1 25/1 66/1

1999 (istabraq)
50/1 33/1 16/1 66/1 40/1

2000 (istabraq)
25/1 16/1 (Blue royal third) 11/1 (hor la loi second)

2002 (hor la loi)
14/1 (bilboa second), 150/1

2003 (rooster booster)
33/1 100/1 66/1

2004 (hardy eustace)
40/1

2005 (hardy eustace)
25/1 9/1 (essex, won handicap off 125, then tote trophy)

2006 (Brave inca)
16/1, 150/1, 40/1

2007 (sublimity)
6/4f, 25/1

detroit city never travelled from the word go, can't put that down to age. afsoun finished third at 25/1.

2008 (Katchit)
10/1, 25/1

punjabi third at 25/1 and katchit the winner at 10/1, admittedly the race was weird and seemed to fall apart a bit

2009 (pubjabi)
6/4f, 17/2. 16/1, 33/1, 14/1, 125/1, 100/1,

could argue that with a more positive ride binocular would've won, and he was short on work. celestial halo went down a head at 17/2, with crack away staying up hill for fourth

2010 (binocular)
15/2, 14/1, 50/1

zaynar never a two miler, did well to finish third here

2011 (hurricane fly)
16/1, 50/1


so since 1998, there have been 5 SP's in single figure betting, four of them from 2007 onwards. Binocular could've possibly won given a better ride in his race. Essex in 2005 hardly had a traditional CH campaign, zaynar lacked speed, celestial halo was a neck away and you can't really tell anything from detroit city's run. most of the runners have been completely unfancied.

so the stat doesn't put me off. i think spirit son will need further, don't see him as a champion hurdler. if grandouet wins the bula he'll be second fav. i know it's early but i'm really excited about him, i'd like to see him take on zarkandar again.
By:
alanc1
When: 03 Dec 11 20:19
Have been having a few quid each week on Zarkander since the spring after being highly impressed with the Triumph hurdle win and Nicholls describing him as 'his own Hurricane Fly'. Have to say he'll need to improve alot to beat the real thing but looking forward to a good performances before March to make it an exiting first day at the festival.
By:
sageform
When: 04 Dec 11 07:37
Can't argue with the figures, but one win from 38 attempts is another way to put the same stats! The SP's refelct the fact that no 5yo's apart from Detroit City and Binocular have been good enough to start at single figures despite many who have dominated their own age group. If you go back much further, many very good 5yo's have tried and failed, some narrowly but still beaten. Many of them came back at 6yo and improved greatly, such as Cima, Kribensis, Collier Bay. This is because all of the evidence suggests that hurdlers improve by 5-7lb from 5 to 6 so only those who are 5-7lb ahead of their opponents such as See You Then and Persian War who both won it again, will win. Katchit was supposed to be the one who broke the mould but as you say that was a very strange result. The gulf between Champion class and noviceis huge and only a very few make the move up. Big Bucks, Kauto Star and Sizing Europe have recently reminded us of that.
By:
judorick
When: 05 Dec 11 15:57
I latched on to Zarkandar immediately after his debut win in a Graded race.... reasoning he has to be a machine to win like that in that race. He also had the highest Topspeed rating in the Triumph and I made him an outstanding bet at 15/2 or whatever as I could not see him out of the first 2.

Now the CH is a totally different matter and there is no way I could be backing him. People say every year that trends at the Festival can be taken on if it is the right horse. However, both Triumph hurdle winners and 5 year olds have a truly dismal record and I could not entertain him for those reasons alone - even though I know he is a really smart horse. Don't forget Sizing Europe was odds on in running in Katchits CH before he went lame or whatever happened so the stats could be even worse.
By:
wellchief
When: 05 Dec 11 17:59
To me, it looks like the Triumph form is working out this year the best of all of last seasons novice races.

Grandouet has looked a classy animal this year, Unaccompanied has been impressive in Ireland (not to mention a win over a future Breeders Cup Turf winner!!) and Brampour has been running huge races in handicaps.

I'm looking forward to see how this fella has improved from 4 to 5.

I've got him in a £1 Lucky 15 that I put on straight after last years festival as a bit of fun, but I would want to see him against the big boys before I'd consider backing him for the Champion.
By:
denman85
When: 05 Dec 11 20:03
what about al ferof novice form wellcheif? surely tha the stand out form, clocked a faster time than hurricane fly in supreme than hf did champ hurdle
By:
wellchief
When: 05 Dec 11 22:06
I never take any notice of times Denman.

I remember last year Woolcome Folly clocked a faster tme than Master Minded over the same C&D at Cheltenham, and a lot of people were making a big song and dance over it, but in the end in the end it meant nothing.

Difficult to rate the Supreme form because the main ones have all gone chasing or havent been seen yet.
By:
Wicketd
When: 05 Dec 11 23:50
they didnt go off that quickly in the CH, whereas they obviously did in the supreme with the way they were finishing. ive always found that time comparison pointless.

sageform, yeah fair points. however, i wonder how many of those 5yos (deservedly or not) were rated in the 160s. SPs suggest not many. we'll see anyway. if grandouet wins the bula he'll be second fav so that's what i'm hoping for!
By:
judorick
When: 06 Dec 11 23:42
Grandouet has a great chance in the Bula but will still be trying to overcome the stats in the CH
By:
crescent
When: 10 Dec 11 15:38
Another great performance from Grandouet and likewise Brampour.Slightly concerned by the lack of info about Zarkandar but HF is a terrible price at the moment so i have gone in again on Zarkandar.
   Grandouet looks to be the best hurdler we have seen in this country so far this season bar maybe Rock On Ruby's performance the other day and as such they look good value aswell but i think Zarkandar will have their measure.
By:
seary
When: 19 Dec 11 00:34
Rock on ruby is the value bet for me at this stage..his win a couple of weeks back carrying top weight  was a proper eye catcher, so so impressive. Raya star winning at weekend has franked the form.

He never runs a bad race.  and lets not forget as far as stats go the neptune novice hurdle isnt a bad poniter for a champion hurdle horse (peddlers cross) unlucky second last year.

love the horse, love the price.
By:
judorick
When: 19 Dec 11 02:08
yes he could be very good indeed and you are right the Neptune (RSA) is a much better guide than any of the Triumph, Supreme etc

He could be the one to challenge the Fly!
By:
duffy
When: 20 Dec 11 08:40
with the benefit of hindsight it would have been interesting to have seen him in last years supreme.
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Dec 11 12:30
Seary, why was PC an ''unlucky second'' last year ?

As for the Neptune providing champion hurdle candidates ... Hardy Eustace.
By:
duffy
When: 20 Dec 11 15:45
as for the neptune providing champion hurdle candidates....istabraq!!!
By:
crescent
When: 20 Dec 11 20:08
Zarkandar has no entries as yet, does anyone know if he will be entered for the christmas hurdle.
By:
Masterminded
When: 20 Dec 11 21:15
Think there was talk of him running once in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton before the Champ Hurdle. Gna be a big ask For him & Spirit Son with so little experience.
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Dec 11 21:26
Rock on Ruby runs in the Xmas hurdle so doubt Zarkander will turn up aswell
By:
revedesivola
When: 20 Dec 11 23:19
duffy and sint.. i think seary said the neptune ISNT  a bad pointer for the champion!
By:
sintonian
When: 21 Dec 11 09:51
I know mate. He pointed to PC as an example. There are better examples though which we flagged up.
By:
revedesivola
When: 21 Dec 11 20:19
ah right, sorry!
By:
Howdi
When: 21 Dec 11 22:37
Istabraq for one think he beat Mighty Moss when he won it from memory. Who had a nutter on top.
By:
seary
When: 26 Dec 11 17:56
Sorry Sint for not poiting to better examples but i was only making the point that the  neptune usualy is a better pointer for the champion hurdle than the trimuph. Which most on here seem to think is the stronger race of last seasons novice hurdle races.

I was also using peddlers as an example because he ran probably the best 2m hurdler ive seen in my short interest in racing (hurricane fly) very close ,last year in the champ hurdle.

This leads me on to rock on ruby, who again today ran a stormer. PN had it spot on in his interview before the race,he said " it will be down to who jumps better today" and sure it was, Rock on ruby was sloppy at a few of the hurdles, pinged most great, but the deciding factor was the last hurdle where he brushed through it which imo cost him the race.

Im not sure if the race was ran at a break neck gallop today??? but im sure this is what ROR  needs to be seen at its best and hopefuly the champion hurdle will provide this. So all in all still very happy with my money down for rock on ruby. Im quite suprised its still trading at 14/1.
By:
judorick
When: 26 Dec 11 18:01
any ideas of the plans for Rock on Ruby? In the old days, trainers like Pipe (and even Henderson) would have run it in the Totesport Trophy (or whatever they call it) at Newbury which is a great trial. I remember Rooster Booster, Geos and others running well there before having a crack at the CH. Be interesting to see what he does. A couple of strongly run races like that might be the making of him. I would not want to see him doing more of these small field trials (Kingwell etc)
By:
seary
When: 26 Dec 11 18:05
Im loving your way of thinkin Jud..Drop paul nichols an e-mail, great advice imo.
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