Cheltenham Festival

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
26 Nov 11 20:26
Date Joined: 18 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 163 | Blogger: crescent's blog
This years Triumph Hdl looks already to have been a very strong race with quite a few of the beaten horses putting up very good performances on the track this season, namely Grandouet and Brampour. Sailors Warn, Molotof, First Fandango and Unaccompanied have all won as well. Zarkandar did tremendously well to win that race for one of his inexperience so its seems perfectly feasable that there could be a fair bit of improvement to come this season for this beautifully bred horse.
     Hurricane Fly looked a very worthy champion and if he makes it to cheltenham in the same form he will be very hard to beat.Zarkandar has some poor stats to overcome but he looks the best Triumph winner for a few years in my opinion and if anyone can bust a stat its P F Nicholls. 12/1 about this horse looks good value in a race where there seems to be a dearth of plausible candidates.
Pause Switch to Standard View ZARKANDAR for the Champion Hurdle.
Show More
Report revedesivola February 13, 2012 5:59 PM GMT
However, Nicky is always utterly, 100% honest about this horse and all his horses, so I'm sure you're fine.Laugh
Report denman85 February 13, 2012 6:27 PM GMT
Yeh nickys a twit alrite, the stupid thing is binocular has run better this season so far, than he ran in 2010 when he won CH, for me hes the next best to hurricance fly, kemptons not his track imo, he's a horse that obv hard to train but runs his best races in march, never been out of the top 3 at the festival, and  has the class to go close again
Report denman85 February 13, 2012 6:27 PM GMT
Yeh nickys a twit alrite, the stupid thing is binocular has run better this season so far, than he ran in 2010 when he won CH, for me hes the next best to hurricance fly, kemptons not his track imo, he's a horse that obv hard to train but runs his best races in march, never been out of the top 3 at the festival, and  has the class to go close again
Report buddeliea February 13, 2012 6:40 PM GMT
Report tomdeane February 13, 2012 6:51 PM GMT
Not sure about this really - they had been saying he would be campaigned more aggressively this term, so going to Cheltenham with a gap would be a negative for me. That said, Binocular is Binocular, and I am convinced he has physical issues that stop him running to his best each time he makes the track. He could just as well wake up feeling a million dollars with or without a prep run, so fingers crossed it is the former.

Haven't backed him but would love to see him run to his best again.
Report buddeliea February 13, 2012 7:00 PM GMT
Seems to save his best for Cheltenham Tom.
Report R Carver February 13, 2012 7:07 PM GMT
I echo all that Tom. His price probably fairly reflects his chance, but if he put it all together he would be an interesting threat.
Report eric_morris February 13, 2012 9:40 PM GMT
Is he having a back massage this year?
Report crescent February 16, 2012 10:21 PM GMT
Ok Zarkandar the fly has come out and put the marker down lets see what you have got.
Report birdieforthewin February 17, 2012 1:33 PM GMT
If that is all that zarkander has and even if he improves for a few pound on todays run, he'll have no chance against the fly.
Report buddeliea February 17, 2012 1:37 PM GMT
Whys that??
How do you know how HF will run on the day,weve only seen him once this season,on a bog.
Report birdieforthewin February 17, 2012 1:47 PM GMT
How do i know? I just do...i shall be back to remind you of that on the saturday after the
gold cup.
Report buddeliea February 17, 2012 1:51 PM GMT
ok,i expect you will be right,most think the same.
I just think hes a horse thats had a setback and run  once ona surface that none of them really liked at all.
Report R Carver February 17, 2012 1:59 PM GMT
Great trial today for Zarkander. Stop the triumph at the bottom of the hill and Grandouet looked the better horse of the pair. However, Zarkander is a stayer and winners of the Champion need to stay and I can see him and Grandouet running similar races this March to that which they ran last March (i.e., Zarkander doing his best work at the end of the race and Grandouet not quite doing his best at the end of the race). But I also think if the staying Peddlars Cross could not beat Hurricane, and Hurricane is in the same form this yr, Zarkander will not beat him. I cannot have Zarkander being anything like as good as Peddlars Cross, though I coudl be badly wrong. Hurricane looks different class.
Report R Carver February 17, 2012 2:01 PM GMT
Btw, I say the above expecting fully this race to bring Zarkander on significantly.
Report squiggsy February 17, 2012 2:06 PM GMT
Zarkander of 151 today gave good marker get me out of here 7ibs and 1.5 length beating 151 plus say 9 gives him a mark of 160.

Can he find 10-15 ibs second time out i think its possible.

Zark wasn't strong in the market today we were warned it was all about cheltenham the fly is no certainty !
Report Desmond Orchard February 17, 2012 2:18 PM GMT
I thought he ran really well today first time up, in a race that wasn't run to suit. He is all about stamina and they went no pace for the first mile, when the tempo was upped he was caught a little flat footed and was one of the first off the bridle. He kept finding though, only to have his rhythm disrupted by one coming across him before the last, I thought his chance had gone at that point. The fact that he quickened as well as he did after the last, shows that he has class as well as stamina. With a race ander his belt, the CH run to suit and a clearer passage, I expect him to certainly be the one to give HF most to do. And if that one is a shade below his best, then he could easily beat him.
Report BornToWin February 17, 2012 5:51 PM GMT
Agree Desmond, a more than satisfactory performance today. Think he is a Champion type maybe a place this year and a win at the 3rd attempt Wink
Report Hugh-Mongous February 17, 2012 6:11 PM GMT
There is no reason to desert Hurricane Fly as he NEVER disappoints.
I just cannot see him even slightly troubled by anything, over any trip and any ground!

He really is a machine...that's not telling you all something you don't already know, but last year's Champion Hurdle silenced ANY lingering doubts I may have had.

He's that good, that he keeps coming back after injury troubles and lay-offs, and STILL delivers in style!

I expect nothing less than another imperious performance from arguably the best hurdler since the golden era of the late 70's, and IMV only Istabraq could challenge him.
Report thieveslikeus February 17, 2012 6:21 PM GMT
Well done Hugh, you just redefined hype Laugh
Report ReaseHeath February 17, 2012 6:23 PM GMT
^ I agree with all of that except the slightly troubled bit - he was more than 'slightly troubled' by Peddlers Cross last year and the indications are that last year's novices are decent - it's a championship race and very competitive.

I could see Zarkandar, Grandouet and even Oscar's Well all doing a bit more than slightly troubling HF - whether they can beat him though, well that's a different matter altogether.
Report wellchief February 17, 2012 6:31 PM GMT
If Zarkandar had already had a run or two this year, you'd have to be very disappointed BUT considering it was his first run for almost a year in an ultra competitive handicap, he does warrant respect and you'd have to imagine he's got quite a bit of improvement in him.

You just have to think what would Hurricane Fly have done to that field first time out off 151?

If you have got 10's or so on Zarkandar I think you've got a decent bet; but I wouldn't be pushing to get to the front of the queue at 11/2.
Report Hugh-Mongous February 17, 2012 6:34 PM GMT
TLU - when I'm finally satisfied, when every scintilla of doubt is gone, I'm happy.

I have rather contradicted my earlier post about hype though Devil

I think it's sensible to remain a doubter for as long as possible, and when something like Hurricane Fly finally shuts me up, I just stand in front of my TV applauding a fabulous horse with an incredible CV.

I even have doubts about Big Buck's...I would have expected him to have run over 20f by now, and that disappoints me - he's had everything his own way, and although he's probably the best staying hurdler I've seen, I'm still not happy!

That's why I tend to jump on these boats very late Grin
Report booster February 17, 2012 6:38 PM GMT
Zarkandar did well today and will definitely improve but the proximity of Raya Star, 2 lengths back in 3rd, only highlights the chance of Rock On Ruby, who conceded 1lb more than his stablemate was today but beat Raya Star by 10 lengths over course and distance in November. As someone said earlier, stayers win Champion Hurdles and he only lost The Neptune in a photo last year plus he backed his Newbury success up in The Christmas Hurdle over a course he wouldn't have relished.
Report OnTheSnaff February 17, 2012 6:41 PM GMT
i thought that was a very decent re appearance from Zarkander,Went no pace which doesnt suit him at all,
if there's a race made to suit then its the CH,pace will be fierce from start to end,he's one of these horses who will never do it stylishly,but keeps getting the job done,reminds me of when Big Bucks started off over hurdles,
He could easily have a tonne improvement in him,he doesnt show much at home by all accounts,so he's hard to get to the end of,
i'd still very much favour HF because he's just a machine,but i honestly wouldnt be surprised if Zarkandar were to turn him over
Report judorick February 17, 2012 6:42 PM GMT
yeah I definitely think Rock on Ruby has a better chance than Zarkandar - he is a more appropriate age and ran in a good trial race (Neptune)

5 year olds and Triumph winners have a terrible record in the Champion - and Zarkandar is both (and I backed him for the Betfair weeks ago)
Report wellchief February 17, 2012 6:42 PM GMT
Now that we've seen all of the runners out, it is quite clear the Fly is some way ahead of the rest, who imo are a much of a muchness.  That's why I don't mind taking a bit price on Overturn w/out the Fly, because it could be a blanket finish between the others.

Does anyone know what price Zarkandar traded at in running?  There was one stage were Raya Star overtook him turning for home and I thought his chance had gone.

Just makes me more frustrated that Spirit Son isn't running because I think he'd be a long way clear of the best of the rest.
Report Hugh-Mongous February 17, 2012 6:45 PM GMT
WC - Zarkandar touched 100 I/R Shocked
Report buddeliea February 17, 2012 6:46 PM GMT
Agree Booster,im warming to the chances of ROR.Think hes a major player,strong traveller that wil have no trouble getting home.
Cracking bet without the fav,and even with the fav his cutrrent odds are pretty good imo.
Report strontium February 17, 2012 6:50 PM GMT
I thought it was no more than an OK performance from Zarkander on that mark. The race wasn't run to suit but he's got some pretty ordinary horses in close proximity. He was given a good ride but he won't have Ruby in the Champion. He's entitled to improve a bit for the run. All in all I can't see him troubling Hurricane Fly unless the Fly has a serious off day and he's no banker for 2nds with Overturn and Grandouet kicking about.
Report SN02 February 17, 2012 6:51 PM GMT
Who will Ruby ride ? It tells you everything we need to know . H Fly is an absolute machine . Peddlers imo was better last year  than the current promising crop taking on the Fly'. I like Grandeout , and I think he will cause me a bit of concern at some point during the race on the day , but as previuosly mentioned, Grandeout doesn't find much later on in its races . Binocular concerns me a little bit , as a champion , and maybe the breathing op has helped . Oscars Well and Rock on Ruby are surely place bets?

Summing up I think think the fly can be beat three ways . It underperforms massively on the day ( my m8 Tory who posts on here has been doing that for 5 years :) ) , something freakish happens , he gets clipped or something more random . Or he does not turn up and we all get our NRNB money back.

It would hurt if he turns up and doesnt win as I really think he is as good a hurdler as you can get
Report ReaseHeath February 17, 2012 7:03 PM GMT
the points about Rock On Ruby are well made and there was even a hint from Nicholls in his post race interview with Nick Luck when he said the lads who looked after ROR would be pleased with Zarkandar's win!

I don't really buy the 5yo stat - Katchit won as a 5yo (albeit in a poor renewal) - that's like saying you would n't back Zarkandar today on the basis that there had been no FTO winner of the race in 40 years.
Report judorick February 17, 2012 7:04 PM GMT
The thing is about todays race, if you had some out and out front runners in there like Overturn and Make A Stand and they went a serious pace, then Zarkandar would have been able to show how well handicapped he really was - but they didn't have that at all. In fact, the first mile was preposterously slow for a £150,000 race so you can only credit the horse for winning
Report judorick February 17, 2012 7:07 PM GMT
Not buying the 5yo stat? You what? How much stronger a trend do you want?

And it is not just 5yos it is Triumph hurdle winners too - terrible record.

Just because one horse managed to win against a strong trend it does not mean that the trend is therefore worthless... and had Sizing Europe not gone lame Katchit would not have won either.
Report thieveslikeus February 17, 2012 7:08 PM GMT
Rease, the 5yo stat is completely meaningless.  It is experience that counts in the CH.  Every winner, regardless of age, in at least 2 decades has had 15 starts or more under rules and won at least 6 times.
Report thieveslikeus February 17, 2012 7:09 PM GMT
it's the wrong trend Judo.
Report Hugh-Mongous February 17, 2012 7:10 PM GMT
It's more than a fair stat, though it's hard to believe that See You Then just wasn't good enough in his Triumph Hurdle.

Have to agree that Katchit won the race by default and is a below average winner.
Report ReaseHeath February 17, 2012 7:15 PM GMT
I did n't say it was worthless, did I? I said I don't really buy it - big difference, means I'll apply a different weighting to it than other stats, trends and aspects of form.

You obviously disregarded the 'no FTO winner of Totesport Trophy' stat if you backed Zarkandar today. How much of a bigger trend than that do you want? Don't know how many of tried, having said that - how many 5yos are there in the CH generally? How many are as good as Zarkandar potentially?

I respect the stats and trends but won't be straitjacketed by them.
Report Hugh-Mongous February 17, 2012 7:18 PM GMT
Has anyone got any stats about the best 5yo's to run in the Champion Hurdle?

I saw something recently that someone had posted and it was very interesting...many 5yo's have been on the premises without winning.
Report judorick February 17, 2012 7:22 PM GMT
No, I backed Zarkandar on the day the ante post markets opened at 8/1 with everything I could get on then went in again at 6s and 5s...

because I knew the price was going to collapse and I would be able to lay him for green all round

had nothing to do with trends and the Triumph form (Grandouet et al) screamed that 151 was lenient

Well, you claimed that Katchit winning at least devalued the trend. For me it is one of the strongest trends and 5 yos will continue to make a massive level stakes loss in the Champion Hurdle for as long as I am alive (1 out of the last 87 5yos to run have won and he was lucky)
Report strontium February 17, 2012 7:32 PM GMT
I don't have the stats in front of me but don't 5yos trained by Nicky Henderson have a pretty decent recent record in the Champion (placing, not winning). That could be completely wrong!

Geting back to Zarkander, I just watched today's race on TV for the first time and he appeared to be significantly outpaced when they quickened. if so, Hurricane Fly could do him in a couple of strides.
Report ReaseHeath February 17, 2012 7:34 PM GMT
Katchit winning clearly does devalue the trend otherwise it would be 0 from 87 would n't it? That's a statement of fact.Excited

Your backing of Zarkandar clearly implies that you apply the trends in some cases but not in others.

Where does the concept of 'luck' fit into the trends?
Report SN02 February 17, 2012 7:36 PM GMT
The trends are ok until freak of horses turn up
Report buddeliea February 17, 2012 7:38 PM GMT
Its got to be tough for a 5yr old,they are sill improving at that age and not yet reached thier full potential.Stands to reason that they are at a disadvantage,and only in a poor year can they figure in a CHurdle imo.
SE would have won Katchits race,and the race that Bino and CH placed just behind Punjabi was another pretty poor year.Bino was obviously a better horse potentially than Punjabi but just fell short having not had an ideal prep,and he proved it the next year.
Report thieveslikeus February 17, 2012 7:38 PM GMT
Judo, most 5yo haven't had 15+ starts or won 6 times.  That's why the stat looks so bad for them.  6yo, 7yo, 8yo without the said number of starts or number of wins have equally appalling records though!  It's a lazy stat and a false stat.
Report judorick February 17, 2012 7:58 PM GMT
The trends are ok until freak of horses turn up

but freak horses turn up very rarely because they are freaks - so if you apply the trends as a long term strategy you will win in the long run even though once in a while a freak will do you

Katchit winning clearly does devalue the trend otherwise it would be 0 from 87 would n't it? That's a statement of fact.

pedantic but does not increase the validity of your original statement

Your backing of Zarkandar clearly implies that you apply the trends in some cases but not in others.

nope this is plain wrong as I already explained - backing Zarkandar had absolutely nothing to do with trends whatsoever, it was purely a trading decision based on experience that told me the horse would shorten significantly in price. As I posted on Monday, I laid the horse back to green up evenly all round


It's a lazy stat and a false stat

it remains SIGNIFICANT that 5yos have a terrible record and they make a massive long term loss to level stakes at SP, which is what I care about. What you are doing is called "chunking down" which is fair enough but I am happy with long term global trends that either make good profits or big losses to level stakes over many years because that is how I think about my punting
Report thieveslikeus February 17, 2012 8:10 PM GMT
Judo, I am offering you a far more powerful alternative stat, one which has had NO exceptions and which rules out far more horses over the same period than the 5yo one does.
Report judorick February 17, 2012 8:44 PM GMT
the less than 15 starts trend is one I also apply but for me it is a different trend
Report ReaseHeath February 17, 2012 8:51 PM GMT
Your backing of Zarkandar clearly implies that you apply the trends in some cases but not in others.

nope this is plain wrong as I already explained - backing Zarkandar had absolutely nothing to do with trends whatsoever, it was purely a trading decision based on experience that told me the horse would shorten significantly in price. As I posted on Monday, I laid the horse back to green up evenly all round

So backing Zarkandar had absolutely nothing to do with the trends but my statement that you apply the trends in some cases but not others is plain wrong?.

I'm struggling with the intellectual rigour here, Judo.
Report booster February 17, 2012 9:39 PM GMT
Good news, Noel Fehily to ride Rock On Ruby in The Champion, a man who can sit and wait and push the button at the right time. Form is in the book and he's got to be there with a chance at the last with a bit of luck plus he'll get every yard as you'll need to.
Report thieveslikeus February 17, 2012 9:40 PM GMT
The 15 races stat (without the 6 winner bit) has by itself ruled out 29 horses in the last 9 seasons alone, inc 21 horses at shorter than 20/1 in the betting and 13 at 10/1 or under.

year;horse name;horse age;sp;position
2003;Flame Creek;7;14/1;13
2003;Rhinestone Cowboy;7;5/2;3
2004;Davenport Milenium;8;25/1;13
2005;Accordion Etoile;6;14/1;4
2008;Sizing Europe;6;2/1;14
2009;Snap Tie;7;40/1;7
2009;Celestial Halo;5;17/2;2
2009;Crack Away Jack;5;16/1;4
2009;River Liane;5;125/1;21
2010;Go Native;7;11/4;10
2011;Mille Chief;5;16/1;11
2011;Peddlers Cross;6;9/2;2
2011;Oscar Whisky;6;7/1;3
Report judorick February 17, 2012 9:44 PM GMT
I didn't apply any trends information in the race involving Zarkandar, I just thought "that will go off much shorter than that" and so I backed it for all I could believing I would be able to lay it at much shorter and have an all green screen. That is exactly what happened. The fact that it won and overcame a trend was entirely coincidental to my betting on the race.

I will use whatever I believe to be significant. If there is a trend which I think is weak or irrelevant then sure I might ignore it especially ones relating to things like " no favourite has won" and stuff like that because there is no logic (if the horse drifted and was not favourite you would back it but if was heavily backed and was favourite then you wouldn't? Them sorts of trends I will happily ignore but things like the Supreme Novice winner in the Champion, or 5yos in the Champion etc that have large samples and long histories are worth paying attention to)

Ah, I see what you mean about applying trends in some cases and not others now. Well, yes, but that depends on what I am betting on. In Zarkandars case I was banking on a market move and did not even consider the trends because I wasn't looking for the winner of the race, I was merely trading a price. That's the difference. Had I been looking for the winner and studied all the trends and all I might have done something else. So I use whatever means I decide gives me the best advantage. Today at Sandown I decided to do back to lays on all the Topspeed top rated runners and set the lay to win me 15% of my initial stakes - every single one worked and some worked pre race - and there was not the use of a trend in sight
Report alanc1 February 17, 2012 10:04 PM GMT
Comparing the two seasonal debuts all Hurricane Fly did was win a 4 runner race on soft ground while Zarkander won one of the most competitive British handicaps from a very unpromising position two out and proved he can really battle. Nicolls says he'll come on a lot for that but will it be enough to beat a great champion?

Taking into account my antepost Zarkandar bets I've still got hope but now think a 100% Hurricane Fly will be to good. Also fairly sure Ruby will ride the Fly and in my opinion that will be worth 2 or 3 lenghts and be the decisive factor.
Report ReaseHeath February 17, 2012 10:13 PM GMT
Thanks for the explanation - I don't think we're actually saying too much different. Analysing races is a bit of a black art which is why it is so appealing - my approach is similar to yours (though I don't really trade) - I also use the trends selectively - I agree totally about the market trends - I disregard them primarily for the same reason i.e. might miss out on one at a big price.
Report judorick February 17, 2012 10:35 PM GMT
no sweat, it's all about sharing info and learning - the amount I have picked up on various forums on the last 11 or 12 years is incredible just through people sharing.

It has taken a long time but I am now 100% in the trading camp. This is not the place to discuss all that stuff but suffice it to say that if you have a small edge and know how to trade you can bet in many more events, turn over more money with less risk and lees stress and work. For years I spent hours on a single race before parting with money and I would wait for the massive value punts. I've seen both sides and reckon trading is superior
Report Hugh-Mongous February 17, 2012 10:47 PM GMT
Judorick - I was like that too...the satisfaction gained from the odd occasion I've found a forecast after studying ONE race for over an hour is priceless!

I don't do it anymore, but the last time I did (4/11/08, last occasion in a bookies) I backed Mistress Nell at 28/1 but I just couldn't split that & Present M'Lord who was 16/1 pre-race.

For a change I backed the right one, and I didn't do the forecast! Cry

There was a half length between them and a 25 length break to the third home - hugely satisfying Wink

Like you, I can't see the point any more when I can obtain free bets, as well as snatching the easy fractions on the right event.
It's as if I bet by numbers nowadays Plain
Report judorick February 17, 2012 10:49 PM GMT
yup me too, I just think green all the time now
Report crescent February 18, 2012 1:18 PM GMT
In my original post i said i thought Zarkandar was value at 12/1 for the CH and after yesterday's effort i can go green if i choose. I thought it was a very decent performance with things not going totally to plan i.e no pace,getting shuffled back 3 out but on the plus side he jumped well, showed a good attitude to come between horses and in my opinion had a bit up his sleeve at the finish.
   All in all a very good prep and if PFN has as he says left a lot to work on i still think he is the most likely challenger to the FLY,S crown.
Report thieveslikeus February 18, 2012 1:24 PM GMT
I think I chose the wrong New Order song as my username, should've gone for "Everything's Gone Green" Grin
Report wellchief February 18, 2012 1:32 PM GMT
I think Zark was quite fortunate that Brampour ran though.

If Brampour wasn't in the field, Zark would have been top weight and I don't think he would have won carrying 11 stone 12.

If he did, he would have finished unplaced imo and could easily be a 12/1 now instead of an 11/2 shot.
Report Hugh-Mongous February 18, 2012 1:44 PM GMT
TLU - I knew I recognised that moniker from somewhere, and I didn't even think to google it! What a tool Silly

PS - I've got that in my music files...I'll give it a blast later on when I'm guzzling down the brandy Happy
Report buddeliea February 18, 2012 1:48 PM GMT
guzzling Brandy?? blimey?!!

ill have a few pints later,but Brandy?
Report thieveslikeus February 18, 2012 2:01 PM GMT
The song in question was on the 2 hour New Order special on Radio6 music yesterday Hugh, available on bbc radio 6 website until next Friday Cool  A nice Cragganmore for me these days though I'm a big real ale fan.
Report R Carver February 18, 2012 7:46 PM GMT
TLU - I honestly wondered whether you were a bookie (I joke...) but then maybe your name would have been Low Life instead (I joke again...).
Report thieveslikeus February 18, 2012 9:38 PM GMT
LOL R Carver, was a deliberately ironic choice of name with bookies in mind.  Power, Corruption and Lies might have been an option tooPlain
Report R Carver February 18, 2012 9:38 PM GMT
Report crescent February 20, 2012 8:38 PM GMT
Nicholls reports that Zarkandar is one of the horses that returned from Newbury with a dirty nose. Not ideal but he didn't seem to concerned.I will be keeping my eye out for a drift in price.
Report crescent February 23, 2012 9:37 PM GMT
Any news on Zark's wellbeing?
Report crescent February 25, 2012 9:16 AM GMT
Treble yesterday from PFN lets hope he has a better weekend than last.
Report crescent February 25, 2012 3:52 PM GMT
Not great so far, Dildar was disappointing, Michel le bon never jumped before being PU.Dodging Bullets ran a decent race tho.
Report strontium February 25, 2012 4:17 PM GMT
^Cristal Bonus won very nicely.
Report judorick February 25, 2012 4:30 PM GMT
was 7/4 fav, 3rd fav fell at 1st, 2nd fav pulled up

just saying
Report strontium February 25, 2012 4:41 PM GMT
What more would you have had him do? You can't blame a horse for the underperformance of its opponents. It certainly didn't run like a sick horse which is what I believe Crescent is worried about.
Report crescent February 25, 2012 8:11 PM GMT
4 wins and a 2nd is pretty good.I'm not to concerned about stable form, now its more a case of Zarkandar being good enough.
Report crescent March 1, 2012 8:54 PM GMT
I read on another thread that at a preview night Ruby thinks Zarkandar is not quick enough for the CH.
Report OnTheSnaff March 1, 2012 9:16 PM GMT
Thats correct crescent,i was at Westmantown last night,and anyone who heard Ruby talking about Zarkandar would be put right off,he certainly put me right off,thats not to say he wont run well,id still be confident he'll be place,just cant see him winning after Rubys comments
Report crescent March 2, 2012 8:30 PM GMT
I,ll admit its not ideal hearing that but i think there will be a good pace to this race.I can't see Nicholls letting the race develop into a sprint which won't suit Zarkandar or Rock On Ruby and will be perfect for the Fly.In my head i think Celestial Halo will go out infront setting a fast pace with Overturn and trying to run the sting out of HF.
Report lockup March 2, 2012 10:29 PM GMT
most Triumph winners usually end up staying further the only point to consider is that Ruby knows the Fly is too classy or he would ride Zarkandar.
Report crescent March 3, 2012 2:58 PM GMT
"sparkling piece of work today"
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 6, 2012 3:02 PM GMT
Hurricane Fly (10/11) , Binocular (5) , Zarkandar (5) , Rock On Ruby (11) , Oscars Well (14) , Thousand Stars (25) , Overturn (33) , Peddlers Cross (33) , Zaidpour (40) , Brampour (50) , So Young (50) , Celestial Halo (66) , Mikael Dhaguenet (66) , Staying Article (66) , Clerks Choice (100) , Final Approach (100) , Olofi (100) , Starluck (100) , Kalann (200)  - Others  0 or more

CHAMPION HURDLE and what they think and said......

Paul Nicholls: I was beginning to sweat regards Zarkandar before Newbury as the horses next to him were coughing. Since he won as he has snuffling and is on antibiotics but has cantered well since. The quicker they go the better for him. We’ve got improve enormously to beat Hurricane Fly but he is the one unexposed horse. Rock On Ruby will improve enormously for the return to Cheltenham and Noel Fehily rides. I don’t think Binocular enhanced his claims beating Celestial Halo last time. I would rather run Celestial Halo in the World Hurdle but the owner thinks he can finish second in the Champion Hurdle so he runs here. Paul Nicholls thought Zarkander had a chance and would be better than he was at NewburyAlso said Zarkandar was on anti-biotics and would finish the course next couple days, but seemed OK. Also thought Rock on Ruby was way overpriced on form with Binocular. Brampour will run and may have EW squeak, Celestial Halo will take his chance. PN- Few horses coughing. Wasn't confident Zark was at his best before Betfair. Called Darlan a bridle horse had a bit of a pop at him saying Zarkandar would have won anyway. Says he must be some horse to win with a cough and is ok now. Rock On Ruby has a great chance on form with Binocular. Celestial Halo runs but not much of a chance. Brampour runs.

Paul Jones: I will keep it short and sweet as I can’t see past Hurricane Fly. Oscars Well is my idea of the horse most likely to finish second.

Andrew King: The way Binocular beat Celestial Halo was impressive. If that Binocular turns up I think he will give Hurricane Fly a race. He’s an each-way good thing. Andrew King thought Binocular was the EW bet, impressed with last win

Charlie Longsdon: Hurricane Fly is outstanding and I expect him to win. I hear Zarkandar didn’t come out of his Newbury win brilliantly.

Andrew Tinkler: Binocular looked great at Wincanton and I will be really surprised if he is not in the first three. I preferred him to Grandouet as our main hope even before Grandouet had his setback.

Kevan Minter: I could win on Hurricane Fly. The Evens keeps getting wiped out every time someone offers it on the exchanges.

Paul Binfield thought Zarkandar had a decent chance of beating Hurricane Fly

Ruby Walsh: reckons Zarkandar isn't quick enough to win a CH. Hurricane Fly will win. Zarkander has not enough pace.

John Francome: Binocular

Jessica Harrington: Hurricane Fly/ Oscars Well ew. JH – Oscars Well loves good ground and a fast run 2m will suit, will possibly be in the first 3. But Hurricane fly will be hard to beat.

Tom Segal: Doesn't like odds on shots but thinks H Fly wins. Mentions Celestial Halo before picking Overturn E/W.

Henry de Bromhead: Hurricane Fly

Mike Cattermole: Hurricane Fly/ Overturn ew

Noel O’Brien: Hurricane Fly

Jim McGrath: Hurricane Fly

Alice Plunkett: Binocular 20kg lighter best he's been. If he's gna win another Champ hurdle it's now.

Joe Tizzard: Likes Hurricane Fly doesn't think English bunch are up to much. Didn't think the Betfair was a great race. The Fly all day.

David Pipe: Hurricane Fly should win runs on any ground. Also likes Overturn e/w off a nice break. Without H Fly it's an open Champ Hurdle.

Paddy Power: Hurricane Fly will win and Binocular has a good each way chance.

Colm Murphy: Hurricane Fly will win and Binocular has a good each way chance.

Donn McClean: Hurricane Fly will win.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 12:06 PM GMT
Only 12 horese confirmed (HF has scared the other 8 entries)
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 12:32 PM GMT
Presume these 12 are first, as it's the BIG race of the day.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 1:12 PM GMT

Brampour (IRE) 5.g PN Harry Derham
Rock On Ruby (IRE) 7.g PN Noel Fehily
Zarkandar (IRE) 5.g PN Daryl Jacob
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 2:49 PM GMT
Hurricane Fly (10/11) , Binocular (5) , Zarkandar (5) , Rock On Ruby (10) , Oscars Well (16) , Thousand Stars (25) , Overturn (28) , Zaidpour (40) , Brampour (50) , Celestial Halo (66) , Olofi (100) , Kalann (200)
Report crescent March 8, 2012 9:36 PM GMT
Well not long now. Still happy with the 12.0 and 10.0 i've got. I hope Celestial Halo and Overturn force a good pace meaning that Zarkandar can stay on past the Fly up the hill.
Report ZEALOT March 8, 2012 9:50 PM GMT
you got to trade on zarkander tho

winning a totesport off 150ish ??????
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2012 8:38 PM GMT
Hurricane Fly, the hot favourite and title-holder, heads 10 runners in the Stan James Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham on Tuesday.
Willie Mullins' brilliant eight-year-old has won his last seven starts, all of which were Grade Ones.
He showed he was as good as ever when destroying the opposition in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown in January on his belated first run of the season.
He now bids to become the first horse to defend their Champion crown since another Irish-trained hurdler, Hardy Eustace, in 2005.

Hurricane Fly will be accompanied to post by his stablemate Zaidpour, himself unbeaten in four races this season.
Mullins has, though, taken out Thousand Stars, who still holds an entry in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle on Thursday

The main British hope is the Nicky Henderson-trained Binocular, who lifted this prize in 2010 but was unable to compete last year.
Regaining the crown can be done as Comedy Of Errors showed with wins in 1973 and 1975.

Last year's Triumph Hurdle victor Zarkandar heads Paul Nicholls' four-strong team.
He put up a sterling performance on his return to action to land the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last month.

Rock On Ruby, Celestial Halo, who was second in 2009, and Brampour make up the Nicholls quartet.
Kalann, Oscars Well and Overturn complete the list of runners.
The only other horse withdrawn at the final declaration stage was Olofi.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2012 8:40 PM GMT
THE FINAL 10.....

Hurricane Fly (10/11) , Binocular (5) , Zarkandar (6) , Oscars Well (12) , Rock On Ruby (12) , Overturn (25) , Zaidpour (33) , Brampour (50) , Celestial Halo (66) , Kalann (200)
Report crescent March 12, 2012 10:45 PM GMT
Slightly worrying drift on the Zark but keep the faith, he's still unbeaten.
Report crescent March 13, 2012 3:05 PM GMT
Very weak in the market possibly cos Al Ferof ran a shocker.Hoping for a blistering pace here otherwise he might get outsprinted to the line.
Report crescent March 13, 2012 3:32 PM GMT
Ah well, not really good enough. Outpaced but he fairly shot up the hill after the last.
Report OnTheSnaff March 13, 2012 3:33 PM GMT
Flying up the hill in the end,Definitly a stayer
Report seary March 13, 2012 3:38 PM GMT
booooooooom F**king booooooom get in rock on ruby! what a horse!!!

Where are you jud?? have you won a nice sum?
Report roobuck March 13, 2012 7:38 PM GMT
listened to this race on the radio and mick fitz said that zarkandar looked 'nothing' in the paddock. I always thought the TS was the wrong prep and I think that and the coughing at the time may have taken its toll

I actually think that 16s for next year's race is not bad value
Report OnTheSnaff March 13, 2012 7:43 PM GMT
Nicholls said that afterwards too roo
Report roobuck March 13, 2012 7:46 PM GMT
Thanks OTS - as I said couldn't watch it today, so what did he actually say? About the coughing, or a horse for next year?
Report judorick March 13, 2012 8:11 PM GMT
I see Thieves "15 race, 6 race" rule got broken today as rock on Ruby had only run 10 times under rules

5yo and Triumph hurdle winner trend stood up though
Report Viva Pataca March 14, 2012 9:31 AM GMT
I doubt any horse will get up the hill better than Zarkandar all week. He literally took off after the last.....did he just jump into the race at that point?
Report thieveslikeus March 14, 2012 11:40 AM GMT
Just came on this thread to say the same judo.  Smaller field and never really being challenged may have helped but nontheless, my adage about never relying on a trend that only applies to one particular race springs to mind.   The horse was one of only four that met my form or time analysis for the race so if I'd just followed the short list blind I'd have fared very well (C and A also shortlisted in the first , backed 4 from the S/L of 6 but not him...)
Report thieveslikeus March 14, 2012 11:41 AM GMT
Viva, Zark will be better next year but I still stand by my supposition that he is a future stayer.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.


Instance ID: 13539