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Hanbury
23 Nov 11 22:24
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Date Joined: 11 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 199 | Blogger: Hanbury's blog
A real wide open division this year. Who do you feel will win it?
Pause Switch to Standard View Who wins the Queen Mother?
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Report strontium January 12, 2012 12:20 PM GMT
Nacarat appears to have an entry. Weird.
Report strontium January 12, 2012 12:21 PM GMT
Nacarat appears to have an entry. Weird.
Report shockster January 12, 2012 12:33 PM GMT
A grey dropping in distance like One Man.
Report strontium January 12, 2012 12:35 PM GMT
Only 19 entries total Could be a very small field. Sad really.

Al Ferof
Big Zeb
Blazing Tempo
Dan Breen
Finian's Rainbow
Forpadydeplasterer
Gauvain
Ghizao
Hold Fast
I'msingingtheblues
I'm So Lucky
Kauto Stone
Nacarat
Oiseau De Nuit
Peddlers Cross
Realt Dubh
Sizing Europe
Somersby
Wishfull Thinking
Report sintonian January 12, 2012 12:48 PM GMT
No Captain Chris or Noble Prince either.
Report shockster January 12, 2012 1:15 PM GMT
Flat Out not entered for either?
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 2:44 PM GMT
I'm baffled that Captian Chris hasnt had an entry.
Report strontium January 12, 2012 2:56 PM GMT
Flat Out is entered for the old Tote Trophy Hanidcap Hurdle at Newbury on Feb 11th.
Report shockster January 12, 2012 3:07 PM GMT
Flat Out also entered for 1.55 Punchestown on Saturday.  Must be going for the Champion Hurdle.Grin
Report FOYLESWAR January 12, 2012 3:09 PM GMT
i also thought capt chris would have had an entry, does this mean the hobbs camp are pretty confident the gold cup trip is within his compass ..........or ryanair ?
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 3:14 PM GMT
That must be what they've decided Foyles. Suppose its largely to do with the owners. Wishful Thinking is obviously their QM horse. I often think this is the problem when owners have a few. They try and target horses at different races, even though both would probably have the best chance in the QM.

When you consider the record of Arkle winners in the QM its really bizarre.
Report buddeliea January 12, 2012 3:16 PM GMT
They like to keep them apart,as WT looks tailor made for a QM,then CC has to go in another race.CC should be in Ryanair,think they know he wont stay the GC trip.
Report buddeliea January 12, 2012 3:18 PM GMT
Unless CC improves his jumping pretty rapidly its likely he will get beaten wherever he turns up.
Report FOYLESWAR January 12, 2012 3:26 PM GMT
think he will budd he jumped well enough last season and at exeter he jumped well untill the last when he unseated but that looked to me like pilot  getting a rush of blood to the head and not seeing a stride, kempton dont think he was right and hobbs said as much!
Report buddeliea January 12, 2012 3:38 PM GMT
As i remember it,i thought his jumping at Exeter werent that great during the race.

Anyway as you say he did jump ok last season so maybe he will be ok.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 3:41 PM GMT
Jumped well enough to win an Arkle!

The problem is though Budd, I personally dont think Wishful Thinking has any chnace in the QM. So they re-route CC just because they want to keep their horses apart and imo, will end up winning nothing.
Report buddeliea January 12, 2012 3:48 PM GMT
Way i look at it CCM,is that WT Will get what i think he wants,a good paced 2m at Cheltenham,think thats ideal for the horse.Maybe thats also what CC wants but as we agree they wont run both in the same race.
Personally i think they decided start of season to campaign WT at 2m,and CC for the Gold Cup.
CC next race is crucial cos they still want that,but i fear for them that that race will prove he dont stay well enough and will end up in Ryanair.
Report buddeliea January 12, 2012 3:51 PM GMT
I do think WT has chances,but it really depends on the front 2.If they are still as good one of them will win imo,but WT could be a threat if they show any sign of a regression.
I do think it the right race for WT,arguably CC too,but that aint gonna happen.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 3:52 PM GMT
Thats what I mean mate. I agree its the right race for WT... but I think it is for CC too. And even if it is the right race for WT, I just dont think he'll be quite good enough, whereas CC clearly could be.
Report shockster January 12, 2012 3:57 PM GMT
Apart from the odd exception The Ryanair is the race where owners/trainers go when they know they can't win either QM or GC.  They use the excuse of not enough speed or doesn't stay, but usually not always these horses are just below top class.  People may argue but I'd bring back the Cathcart and force Owners/trainers hands.
Report buddeliea January 12, 2012 3:59 PM GMT
Well he did win the Arkle while WT was running 2nd in the Jewson,so you may be right,but i have a feeling that they now rate WT as the best at 2m.
Or is it that they are really hoping for a Gold Cup horse?? Need to be careful if thats the case,could end up with big regrets for his future.
Ive always had the opinion that a horse should run in the race that best suits,but then ive never owned 2 horses like them.
Report FOYLESWAR January 12, 2012 4:01 PM GMT
any breeding boffs on here ? regarding capt chris by kings theartre - function dream (strong gale ) ?
Report strontium January 12, 2012 4:01 PM GMT
The Cathcart had rather silly conditions though.

From a racing point of view I likle the Ryaniar. It's always a competetive race with lots of good horses. The recent winners (Albertas, Imperial) wouldn't look out of place was winners of the GC or Champion Chase, and the Ryanair tends to have more strength in depth. At this Festival it's one of the races I'm most looking forward to.

It's just a pain from the antepost betting point of view!
Report shockster January 12, 2012 4:07 PM GMT
You're right Stront, I am speaking from an Ante Post of view, but I did like the Cathcart.  I honestly believe though it does weaken both the QM and GC.
Report strontium January 12, 2012 4:14 PM GMT
That's a fair point Shock. Personally, I like having the third championship race. I also think the Gold Cup is holding its own. Maybe that's because we've been lucky having the Kauto/Denman era overlap with the lifetime of the Ryanair and things could change in future.

However, one could make a good case that the Ryanair is weakening the Champion Chase and that should be guarded against. Whether that needs a change in race conditions for the Ryanair, or a bigger prize money differential, I'm not sure.
Report buddeliea January 12, 2012 4:18 PM GMT
less runners maybe,but the top 2 milers will always run in the QM,quality will still be there.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 5:11 PM GMT
Ive always had the opinion that a horse should run in the race that best suits,but then ive never owned 2 horses like them.

Exactly right. Me neither.

I suppose I would struggle to run the 2 against each other, but I'd certainly run the best of the two in the race that suited them both, ie in this case Captain Chris. I think its more down to the owners than Hobbs as well. He was quoted before the Haldon saying I hope we see him in the QM.
Report sintonian January 12, 2012 5:45 PM GMT
Not been funny like but i've been saying for the last 9 months Captain Chris is a stayer. He has no turn of foot. He won the Arkle because FR pinged from fence to fence and set the race up for him. He just stayed on up the hill.
Report buddeliea January 12, 2012 6:01 PM GMT
i think hes inbetween the 2, QM and GC,so if i wanted to run him at the very top it would be the QM,cos i dont think he will stay 3m2f.
Report brandyontherocks January 12, 2012 6:45 PM GMT
Well looking at the entries, it doesn't really look exciting at all.
Except for sizing europe there doesn't look much in the race
When I first read mr nicholls was sending al ferof to the victor chandler I thought it was a good move, as in it could be a great trial for the arkle. Instead of running him in a small field novice chase where he would just stroll round, he would get a race run at a true pace and give him more match practise.  BUT now looking at these entries he must be really tempted to have a pop at the big one, surely......

Can not believe Captain Chris has not had an entry
Report FOYLESWAR January 12, 2012 7:55 PM GMT
after watching his arkle win sintonian sevral times sintonian i agree with you 3 out he was beggining to get pushed along as the pace quickened and a good few going better at that point but he stayed on strongly all the way to the line   and he looks to me as though he will be suited by a trip ,may be wrong but it seems hobbs is happy to go that way we will know more after his next race .
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 8:03 PM GMT
Any horse than has the pace to win an Arkle can win a QM for me Sint. The QM is as likely to be set up for him as that race was imo....
Report R Carver January 12, 2012 8:10 PM GMT
I certainly think Captain Chris wants a trip - Hobbs won the QMCC with the slow, staying Flagship, so he knows how to win the race. To my eye, Captain Chris is a not going to beat the crack 2 milers, even if this yr's renewal is not the best ever (though its not the worst ever).

Most worrying for me is his tendency to hang right and / or his preference to go right handed. He hung in his novice at Cheltenham 2 yrs ago (on his preferred decent ground), he was beaten at Chepstow, Newbury and Cheltenham last yr (admittedly, I think, before the wind op) and at Kempton when beating Adams Island I thought he jumped slightly right. I also thought he jumped right in the Arkle and hung a little. He outstayed the free-going Finians. I think he is a top horse with a fine engine, and he has clearly won at Cheltenham, but its just in my mind that he's better going right.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 8:25 PM GMT
Fair play RC, I'd never even considered it. Anyway, suppose there isnt much point debating it now. I'm only annoyed as I've done my dosh! I'd back him in the Ryanair though, but definitely not in the GC.
Report FOYLESWAR January 12, 2012 8:26 PM GMT
r.carver just watched the arkle again he did hang slightly right although to be fair he was widest of all ,wonder if that was the plan to give him a good sight of his fences ,
Report R Carver January 12, 2012 11:23 PM GMT
I agree CCM, I do not think the Ryanair would be a problem, that trip seems ok in my mind, but I would have reservations about the G Cup.

I am probably reading something into nothing regarding the right-hanging - I could not have him on my mind for the Arkle after the Kempton run, and down the back I felt quite content, but I was obviously very wrong at the finish!!
Report sintonian January 13, 2012 9:09 AM GMT
I dont really see the problem with this years entries tbh. BZ & SE are both top class two milers who both have excellent course form. We then have last years Arkle form represented with FR and then another novice in the shape of WT who is not exactly a back number.

It may not be a vintage renewal but there has certainly been worse. Master Mindeds 2nd QMCC victory was rank average with the likes of Petit Robin and an ageing withering Voy Por.
Report buddeliea January 13, 2012 12:05 PM GMT
his 1st werent much better!!

Agree,think it will be a good race with 2 of the best 2 milers ive ever seen.Plus a few young up and comers.
Report wellchief January 13, 2012 5:24 PM GMT
Agree, re quality of Master Minded's first QMCC, but I've never seen a round of jumping like that ever, and I doubt I ever will again (although that was my first ever Chelt, so may be biased)

Dissapointed that Flat Out isn't entered this year in the Ryaniar or the QMCC.  I'm glad Mullins has left him out if he doesn't think he's ready, at least I know were I stand now.

Big Zeb vs Sizing Europe in the Tied Cottage will be interesting, but that form was well and truly reversed last year, so it may not tell us that much if Big Zeb wins (If BZ wins it really boosts Noble Prince's form in the Ryanair, running over a trip that is too short).

I think the market has got it pretty spot on.  SE and BZ deserve to be at the head of the market, followed by Finians. 

This time last year Master Minded was 9/4 and Big Zeb was 7/2, not sure what price Sizing Europe was.  Also, this time last year Spbet did a bet Master Minded and Big Zeb (Coupled)@ 4/5 vs the Field @ Evs.  for this year, if it was SE and BZ (Coupled) vs The Field, I'd definitiely be on the former.

Oh...and to answer the original question, who wins the queen mother, the answer is, I don't knowConfused
Report sintonian January 13, 2012 8:34 PM GMT
Noble Prince's form has already taken a huge boost this season when Osirixamix what an unlucky loser of a Grade 2. He was set to give Golden Silver a 5 length pounding but for falling at the last. Noble Prince smashed him 11 lengths prior. Really hope NP makes it to the festival.
Report harry callaghan January 14, 2012 11:26 AM GMT
Cannot I'm afraid agree with you on the Osirixamix form line Sint...

Osirixamix who has never gone well fresh in the past and should not be taken as a view to Noble Princes form imo

Golden Silver prior to leaving had looked in poor form and was in the process of running like a drain against Osirixamix... he has just won a handicap off of 113...I agree he is improving but lets not give Noble Prince the credit please...not on the back of a horse who was just out for a run on his seasonal reappearance anyway...

For what it is worth in a weak year I wish they had let had let him take his chance in the Champ Chase as he definitely doesn't lack gears and the better ground will suit him more...very surprised they pulled the plug on the Champ Chase...

Personally I am not a fan of his form however and I will have to eat humble pie if he pulls a victory off at Cheltenham but still feel he won't win and is a poor favorite for the Ryannair...just an opinion and am trying everything in my powers to find the winner of the ryannair on the back of him eating a nice slice of the market...

but if you like him the best of luck...he must of done you a favour at the festival last year...
Report CVByrne January 14, 2012 6:49 PM GMT
Well who will turn up?

Sizing, Zeb, Finians, probably Forpady, Gauvain and Wishfull possibly but both better over further , that's it

The winner will be from the first 4 mentioned there and forpady is mega value at 50/1, I've had me some win pl on here at 61/15

Zeb e/w looks solid gold givenhe's never out of the first 2
Report shockster January 14, 2012 7:25 PM GMT
CVB - Cant see Forpady winning but place is def possible and have just taken 12.5 which is fair and as you say very few runners expected.
Report sintonian January 14, 2012 7:29 PM GMT
Was thinking about FPD aswell .. former Arkle winner and all that .. he is still entered for the VC chase next weekend
Report shockster January 14, 2012 7:35 PM GMT
FPD - No wins since Arkle 09, however 11 runs since and only once out of the first 3(some small fields) and that was when tried in the King George. Usually not beaten that far.
Report sintonian January 14, 2012 7:37 PM GMT
Yeah it still requires a leap of faith but can see why he is attractive at the odds, given we might not have 8 runners and 3 places on the day ..
Report sintonian January 14, 2012 7:41 PM GMT
I've no idea what WT's best trip is tbh. I took a chance on him for this race at 33/1 after his PP run where he showed tons of speed. His last run in the Desert Orchid was just a try-out with new hold-up tactics to see if they worked, and they did really, it was just a shame he made a bad mistake.
Report FOYLESWAR January 14, 2012 7:47 PM GMT
thats a fair call c.v byrne a small field likely and although he findsit hard to get his head in front he is nothing if not consistent,
Report CVByrne January 14, 2012 8:13 PM GMT
I have read that Guavain would be "run off his feet" in this if he ran, Ryanair is the rae for him

That leaves Sizing, Zeb, Finians, Forpady and Wishfull

I've bet on all five as view it as a very good trading op at the very least when the rest end up in Arkle and Ryanair

Also think forpady is serious value at 14/1 for sat, intended runner last i read
Report strontium January 14, 2012 9:21 PM GMT
Think Forpady is more likely to run in the Ryanair. That's what the trainer's said and what I've been told but then they often change their minds and he keeps running around 2 m. But surely he doesn't have the pace to win a Champion Chase?

A few 2 m handicappers will show up for the QM rather than the Grand Annual, but they won't win and who knows which ones anyway.

Sizing, Zeb, Finians, Gauvain and Wishfull look the "core" of the field to me, though the last 2 could both go Ryanair. Nacarat may run in this as not entered elsewhere yet, but might be on a mark to go for the Will Hill now? Ghizao also likey to run here I think.
Report strontium January 14, 2012 9:45 PM GMT
By the way, it's good to see you back CVB. I've missed your insight and your input. Hope you're sticking around till the Festival.
Report windsor knot January 14, 2012 10:12 PM GMT
kauto stone
Report CVByrne January 14, 2012 10:21 PM GMT
Thanks strontium

'm away travelling the world on my winnings from the past 4 years, been away over 6 months now, I return 2 weeks before the festival

I'm in Peru at the moment having a rest day that's why I'm doing my homework on the festival

Hopefully I'll write a good preview or two next month, need to mull plenty over and see a few more horses run
Report strontium January 14, 2012 10:33 PM GMT
Oh well, enjoy yourself, it sounds great.

I'll look forward to reading your stuff as you get round to it - all the best!
Report buddeliea January 15, 2012 8:30 AM GMT
Just taken a bit of win and place Nacarat on here-80 and 16.
If he does run he could be interesting at those odds imo.
Report sintonian January 15, 2012 9:34 AM GMT
I cant see WT going for the Ryanair now they have taken out Captain Chris.
Report buddeliea January 15, 2012 10:04 AM GMT
i would say WT is as near definite as can be at this stage,and i think he is in with a chance,this imo is his ideal race.He will have trouble beating the front 2 for sure,but well worth his place in the race.
Report strontium January 15, 2012 12:24 PM GMT
Budd, I agree Nacarat is a fascinating entry. He's short of top class at 3 m but he does like to tank along in the early part of his races.
I just wonder if he'll be aimed at the Will Hill handicap though? His mark has slipped to 154. In the past he's come 3rd in the RP chase off 156,  2nd off 158 and 1st off 147, so he could be competetive. That said, he might be a stone better at Kempton than anywhere else and he's never completed a race of any kind of Cheltenham and never run at the Festival - so he might get battered whatever he does!
Report buddeliea January 15, 2012 3:30 PM GMT
would not argue with any of that Stront.
Just have a feeling they may go for it,and with not many runners likely,he could sneak a place,and maybe do a one man!!
Pretty unlikely but not big wagers,and if he does run i may have some fun watching the race.
Report BJG January 21, 2012 3:18 PM GMT
Hmmm....

Wishful thinking defo not

Finians - prob nt good enough


Looks a match between - Sizing and Zeb
Report shockster January 21, 2012 5:18 PM GMT
Now it's evident that last years 2m novices are also a poor lot just like their 3m equals.  Straight match between SE and BZ.  Former preferred.
Report The Headmaster January 21, 2012 5:29 PM GMT
Very little new blood in this division....been a real disappointment imo.

Hold Fast, or even Sommersby if today signals the turning of a leaf, the only thing left outside the big two now it seems.
Report shockster January 21, 2012 5:39 PM GMT
Sommersby has had his chances and falls just short.  Well done to him today, but he was top on official ratings and beat inferior horses.  Will be bridesmaid at best come Cheltenham. 
Hold Fast needs amazing improvement, good Hcp win last time, but was beat off 138 in Nov and needs to find 40lb in 3 months!!!!
Report strontium January 21, 2012 6:05 PM GMT
I agree Shockster. I'm suprised Finians hasn't lengthened more. I can't see why he's so short relative to, say, Somersby since he didn't appear to have any excuses today. It's a shame Gauvain fell, so we don't know how he sits relative to these.
Report wellchief January 21, 2012 6:12 PM GMT
Wouldn't be surprised if Wishful Thinking skipped Cheltenham and went for something like the Melling as a fresh horse.

Stan James still 10/1 for the QMCC, if anyone takes that they need their head testing.
Report shockster January 21, 2012 6:18 PM GMT
Gauvain goes better at cheltenham than Ascot and could be the one for third.  Was fading today though and was a long way out, so has to be disappointing.  Should be at least 12/1 bar the top 2 IMO.
Report wellchief January 21, 2012 6:38 PM GMT
I wonder if Captain Chris' connections regret not giving him a QMCC entry now.

Looks much easier to place in this than the gold cup imo
Report strontium January 21, 2012 6:54 PM GMT
Plus wishfull Thinking doesn't look up to it. They can always supplement him, but it's expensive.
Report shockster January 21, 2012 7:06 PM GMT
Pricewise looking good!!!!!
Report tomdeane January 21, 2012 7:22 PM GMT
I think a few are being too dismissive of Finian's Rainbow's chances. Seems to have run a near-identical race to when finishing second in the Arkle - cruised there going best from some way out and then not quite get home.

Trying to eke out his stamina in the Queen Mother will be very hard, but am convinced he has enough ability to be a major player. Master Minded's form with Somersby suggests Finian's is not far at all off that mark, and better ground at Cheltenham could easily see him come on from this.

I was always of the opinion that Master Minded was the equal of Big Zeb and Sizing Europe but that he just didn't show his best at Cheltenham the last few years. So, a little convoluted I know, but the basic summary is that I think Finian's is still a player on decent ground. Forpadydeplasterer beaten a long way too to give the form another little sniff of authenticity.

As for the Ryanair comments, these are beyond me. If ever there was a horse that wants an easy two miles it has to be Finian's!
Report R Carver January 21, 2012 8:30 PM GMT
Tom, not for the first time, I agree.

I have said elsewhere that I do not think Al Ferof will win the Arkle (though should not be discounted lightly, he just IMO wants further), but I think this was a decent race today. I do not think Finians will win the QMCC (I think Sizing is several lbs the best) but he impressed me (phsyically he is awesome) and I think he is a good e/w bet in the race, or quite possibly the winner without the favourite.
Report The Headmaster January 21, 2012 8:36 PM GMT
^ do you two think Finians was faltering today then?

Looked like he was done for foot to me......
Report thedemps January 21, 2012 9:19 PM GMT
Not sure how you could think 6/1 Finians look like value after today.  The race seems sure to cut up and a few plausibel challengers have a mountain to climb - I would be a lot happier taking 9/4 NRNB on the defending champ personally.  His Cheltenham and Sandown runs were very impressive in comparison to what I saw today
Report harry callaghan January 21, 2012 9:49 PM GMT
Well I have to say I have learnt something today in regards Finians Rainbow...

He has always looked a classy individual and at last we have some form to go on...I think he has marked himself down as a top class chaser today but how good he is is still open to debate...for me personally he is a horse that is going to want proper fast ground in order to see his races out better and expose others tactical speed...he is such a good mover and today's taxing ground may have been his undoing...It has to be said that basically he has just been outstayed by a horse(who I don't like) who clearly loves it round Ascot...

He can improve on this but how much I don't know...people on here are knocking Al Ferof but think he ran a blinder myself against experienced chasers beaten only 4 1/2l was a good performance but hey ho...but what I will say is it puts the form into context...I like to rate horses and I would say Finians has improved to a mark of around 167-168 which isn't far off of the top level...

People will be disappointed but I wouldn't be, the most annoying thing for me was how little he found when let off the bridle however (did the same in the Neptune and in the Arkle just an opinion), he wouldn't quicken and just found the same pace which was disappointing for me as was his lack of fight when the winner came upsides (wonder if he has breathing issues) but maybe he was just mugged today...talk of going up in trip I find hard to believe as he only seems to have one way of running and that is flat out at the same pace but I am not a trainer and to give him a Gold Cup Entry they obviously think differently...

The Queen Mother is a different race run over a furlong less and probably on decent ground and I would be disappointed if he couldn't get in the money the main problem for me is will he have enough left to get up the hill I have me doubts...wonder how well he would go?? off the back of a hold up ride because he does seem more settled this season to the fiery character that didn't like the restraining tactics which contributed to a below par run at Warwick last year?? Or would it just disappoint this habitual front runner...I don't know just speculating what may help him win the Queen mum I suppose...

Wonder also if a less taxing track would also play to his strengths...
Report harry callaghan January 21, 2012 9:51 PM GMT
6-1 is about right for him I would say...but not a lot of sweets for me...but there isn't going to be in race lacking in much strength and depth...
Report strontium January 21, 2012 10:10 PM GMT
Someone explain to me why, after today, Finians is about 5/1 and Somersby about 20 for the QMCC. I didn't see any excuse for Finians that would make that much difference, but maybe it's just that Finians will run and Somersby might go Ryanair?
Report R Carver January 21, 2012 10:21 PM GMT
The Headmaster - i wonder if BJG rode the race again, he may not hit the front so soon (though last yr he used to lead). Not sure. Obviously the horse tanked to the front, but the way he ran did not suggest to me he wanted further. Trainer, owner and jockey seem to think so, and they know far more than me mind you.
Report shockster January 21, 2012 10:22 PM GMT
In a match bet in QM I would def back Sommersby over FR.  We've all got our opinions but can't understand the loyalty to FR.  Good horse yes, but a few pounds short of the best.  Unless Henderson says was undercooked and was prep, then can't have him at anything less than a 12/1 chance.
Report barnesy January 21, 2012 10:32 PM GMT
Knight was quoted on Racing Post saying she believes Ryanair is the perfect race for Somersby. I would guess thats the reason for the price discrepancy, the two firms betting with a run are both 8s
Report Deplasterer January 21, 2012 10:35 PM GMT
Forpady.Tongue Out
Report strontium January 21, 2012 10:46 PM GMT
I thought he put in a fine prep run for the Ryanair and he looked superb in the parade ring. I think he's tough and genuine, he just doesn't have the pace for 2 m any more and today was done for toe at a crucuial stage in the race - but he stayed on well. I hope connections send him to the ryanair, even though it looks like being the race of the Festival. It was good to see the Goat syndicate and their red and white scarves all over Ascot today!
Report peterpointer January 21, 2012 10:54 PM GMT
depends on ground, if Geraghty keeps ride on BZ on good allround then hard to look past but SE is favoured by good to soft policy despite the formers wins in the heavy, having said that Al Ferof a decent third 2day and cant help but remember how he tanked round cheltenham on fencing debut so plenty of Course form and he survived the electricity in Newbury last year so that is a -positive+. Will prob be between the 3 but wud love to see the Captain beat wishful thinking into second as would help tentofollow after unaccompanied n fly 1-2 in hurdle
Report thedemps January 21, 2012 11:37 PM GMT
I would see SE as more than twice as likely to win as BZ on the basis of the track and age.  This view won't change after the Tied Cottage regardless of the outcome.
Report strontium January 21, 2012 11:43 PM GMT
^agree entirely
Report Martin pipe returns January 22, 2012 12:16 AM GMT
Not sure about that one fella. Sizing is 10 and that is certainly not too old for the QM. The ideal age seems to be 9. Biz Zeb is arguably pushing it at 11 but still not discountable on age grounds. Here's some stats from recent renewals that may make you think again:
98: 10 year old winner
99: 9 year old winner
00: 9 year old beaten a shd
02: 10 year old came 2nd beaten by 2 lengths
03: 9 year old winner
04: 2nd, 3rd and 4th were aged 10, 11 and 10
05: 11 year old winner (beating Well Chief and Azertiyoup
06: 10 year old runner up
07: 2nd, 3rd and 4th were aged 9,10 and 9
08: Only 2 rages
09: 10 year old runner up
10: 9 year old winner
11: First 4 aged 9,10,10,9

So I think we can safely say that Sizing Europe is not too old! This is especially true given that the new generation on the block look sub par.
As an aside Finians Rainbow looks about the ideal age and if it can find another few pounds it has to be bang in the picture to shake up the first two. I have it needing another 7lbs of improvement. Given that today was only his second chase after his novice season I don't think this can be ruled out. He wouldn't have been trained to peak in the VC and given his best run last year was at Cheltenham,and the going is likely to be a bit better for him over a trip 1 furlong shorter I think those suggesting 12-1 in what will be a very small field need to think again.

Pipebet would be along the lines of:

Sizing 13/8
Big Zeb 3/1
Finians R 9/2

That's 81% - who is going to take the remaining 19%?!
Maybe Wishfull Thinking 14/1, Hold Fast 20/1, plus 3 rags at 66-1 ?

Try pricing me a 100% market with Finians at 12-1 - I look forward to seeing it :)
Report strontium January 22, 2012 12:26 AM GMT
He's saying he thinks Sizings going to win....
Report Martin pipe returns January 22, 2012 12:31 AM GMT
Yep, I know, my reply is to the post suggesting that both the top two are too old, and that each year people throw their dosh way on such horses :)
Report strontium January 22, 2012 12:52 AM GMT
Well then I agree with you - sorry Happy I can't see past the first two (the first one if he stands up!)
Report wellchief January 22, 2012 10:47 AM GMT
If people can't see past the first two (myself included), if you dutch them you get pretty much evens for the pair.

£50 total bet is:

£31.43 on Sizing Europe at 9/4 and
£18.57 on Big Zeb at 9/2

If either wins it returns £102.14 - pretty much evens.

Don't think that its a bad bet at this stage - woudn't get that kind of bet if you waited until the day imo
Report BJG January 22, 2012 10:48 AM GMT
Finian's Rainbow's connections may go away and contemplate whether to take him to the Ryanair, rather than stick to their original plan of the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Owner Michael Buckley said: "I just think it's too early to take a view. He's been working more like a staying horse and if he does go for the Queen Mother it will be the last time he runs over two miles."
Report strontium January 22, 2012 12:02 PM GMT
^Am I the only one who think's that's hilarious. Our horse got beaten by somersby. He's not as good as we thought! Yikes! Panic! Ryanair!!
Report shockster January 22, 2012 12:07 PM GMT
Wellchief, I agree evens the pair is great value.  I think it's as likely as BIg Bucks and he's 4/7!
Report GoldCupWinner January 22, 2012 12:31 PM GMT
Do you think Big Zeb under perfromed at Cheltenham last year or is he just more suited to Punchestowns? Through Captain cee bee it looks like Sizing put up a similar type of perform to his QM win. Golden Silver was even further behind than in the first race.
Report BJG January 22, 2012 4:04 PM GMT
Nicky Henderson is likely to keep Finian's Rainbow to two miles following his fine effort in defeat at Ascot.

Runner-up in last season's Arkle Trophy, Henderson's charge went down by a length and a quarter to Somersby in the Victor Chandler Chase at the Berkshire track on Saturday.

The nine-year-old has entries in the three top chase races at Cheltenham with the Queen Mother Champion Chase appearing the favoured option at this stage.

"He seemed to do little wrong at Ascot apart from getting beaten and he seems a different horse this season," said Henderson.

"Last year he was all over the place but some sense seems to be getting in there.

"I'd like to think there's a bit of improvement to come, I don't think he's at his absolute best yet.

"We did talk about going over further but I think we'll stick to two miles."
Report sintonian January 23, 2012 9:53 AM GMT
Forpaddy has had a load of lung and breathing problems apparently .. was not even aware of that .. dont remember reading it anyway ..

how many punters were aware of that ? Im sure they would have liked to have known before backing him in any race ..
Report stevo1 January 23, 2012 10:47 AM GMT
Lets hope Nicky doesnt run Finians in Gold Cup wtf! What a waste of owners entry fee Henderson not a great trainer of info we seen and heard it all befoe re Binocular. Has a go at the exchanges when it was more than likely plenty of his staff laying the horse? For you Sint?
Report sintonian January 23, 2012 11:06 AM GMT
what do you mean Steveo ?
Report bluebirdfan January 23, 2012 5:39 PM GMT
Will FPDP be having a breathing op then?
Report wellchief January 23, 2012 5:47 PM GMT
Big Zeb's form has taken a bit of a knock with Noble Prince's defeat to Blazing Tempo and FPDP running no sort of race at Ascot.

I suppose he only just does enough most of the time, so the proximity of the others may flatter them a bit, but I'm leaning a lot more towards SE now.
Report BJG January 27, 2012 4:47 PM GMT
Barry G's BLOG-

Finian's Rainbow  ran a good race in the Victor Chandler Chase but I am sure there is better than that to come from him. It’s just possible that he’s not yet 100 per cent on his “A” game.

We winged the fifth and sixth last and jumped to the front and just seemed to struggle a little bit. We were there to be shot at and I didn’t have a lot left when Somersby came along and push came to shove. I am sure my lad is better than the bare result because I’m not convinced that was him at his best.
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