Cheltenham Festival
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A real wide open division this year. Who do you feel will win it?
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It would be great to see Sizing win the Queen Mother again, but his age concerns me. 10 year olds dont have a great record in this.
Big Zeb will be 11, they do even worse! Captain Chris looks likely to run in the Ryan Air or Gold Cup, although he may step back he disappoints over further. Finians Rainbow looks solid, but uninspiring. So for me the most interesting horse is Tataniano. I was amazed to see he is still only a 7 year old. Nicholls thought he was a Queen Mother horse last year, but he ran poorly at times. I know he runs well fresh, but he did look very good winning a handicap off 160, and with a light campaign and goodish ground at the Festival he looks like the most likely improver. I think he has matured and strengthen up and is the right age to be the winner. |
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sizing europe
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Sizing Europe, though I also think Tataniano is a smart horse on very decent ground. Maybe the Aintree was not so strong 18 months ago, but i've always thought he was a smart horse on very decent ground when fresh.
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Wishfull Thinking
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big zeb to place nap
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FR or CC for me, however going to have to have a saver of wishfull thinking before he runs in the Tingle Creek just in case
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Captain Chris if they do the right thing.
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Finians Rainbow, poor renewal this year though
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people always ignore age stats for championship races... and they rarely alter year on year!
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If its a poor renewal then see no reason why last seasons impressive winner should not win again.Think hes on his own to be honest,and at current prices is possibly the best value out of all the races at the festival.The 2m round Cheltenham is perfect for him as shown twice already,and his age wont stop him imo.
Big Zeb would be his main threat i feel once again. I like Finians,great traveller but he dont seem to find a lot at the end of his races. There yer go,not only the winner,but 2nd and 3rd as well.  |
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Captain Chris, Finians Rainbow or Noble Prince would be my idea of the likely winner at this stage. If Finians learns to settle I don't think there's a better bet at the festival.
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Looks like we disagree slightly MM
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Tataniano for me. Think he'll win the tingle then go on to be fav for the CC.
Still have respect for Big Zeb though.. |
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No respect for SE then?
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A major concern for Tataniano would be softened ground IMO. I wonder if he is flakey, but when he is good, he is electric. I think MM has hit the nail on te head regarding Finian's - pure class, but will he settle? I think he would have been a nice winner of the race last yr if he'd done slightly less early on, and saved something up his sleeve. That is teh major concern for him this yr.
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By the way, totally off-thread, so forgive me please, but how much speed in the Tingle Creek? Tataniano, Finians, Wishful Thinking. Sandown may suit a front runner, but that battle for the front (and Finian's jumping deteriorated terribly at Warwick when asked to go in behind) may just set it up for Sizing..
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Good point R carver about the Tingle Creek pace line. The ground will definitely play its part. I dont fancy sizing on soft though, nor Tataniano. Wishful would probably be my pick if that happened. On fast ground it would sizing versus tataniano.
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Sizing was my nap for the past 2 cheltenham festivals, so it will be hard for me to desert him for the Queen Mother. Probably end up doing the reverse forecast with Tataniano!
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Touch Wood Hanbury, should be 2 cracking races, lets hope they all turn up in A1 shape.
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You're not wrong!
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Absolutely amazed that SE is being overlooked by so many on here.One of the best QM winners i have seen for a long time.
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Only concern with Sizing is age. Big Zeb looked pretty bombproof this year iirc
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Big Zeb is still a bl00dy good horse,but he met a horse in March who is tailor made for 2m round Chelt,and who put up a pretty faultless display.
Age can catch up anytime,but it aint putting me off a horse that did that not so long ago. |
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big zeb and sizing are too old according to the stats, i tell people year after year having been stung myself when i started off. every year without fail punters think that year there will be an exception for some reason or another... and in the vast majority of times their cash goes down the swanney.
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stuff the stats!!
Soon as NRNB comes in im steaming into SE. |
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good luck... youll need it, just as the kauto, denman and imperial commander backers in last years gc did. i told them too
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Hanbury Joined: 11 Nov 11
Replies: 29 25 Nov 11 20:03 Sizing was my nap for the past 2 cheltenham festivals, so it will be hard for me to desert him for the Queen Mother. Probably end up doing the reverse forecast with Tataniano! a new addion to after timers fred |
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we all need some luck in this game,but backing the best 2m chaser in training NRNB reduces that imo.
Appreciate your advice Reve,but what happened in the Gold Cup has no bearing on the QM in March, cheers anyway. |
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What stats RDS?
Age for a Queen Mother winner? Moscow Flyer won at 11, One Man at 10, Martha's Son at 10, the great Badsworth won his 3rd at 10. I could go on. I don't think Big Zeb will win because i do not think he will be good enough, but not because he'll be 11. I think Sizing could win, and the fact that he is rising 10 does not put me off a jot. |
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Reve,did you tell those same people that Kauto could not win last week??
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Sizing regains title
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Sizing regains title
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no budd, gold cup stats dont apply for the betfair chase
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oh,thought it was an age thing you were on about
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Fancy Big Zeb to regain his crown, and can't see him out of the three at least. I got the feeling connections were somewhat disappointed with his run last year, yet he still finished second to Sizing Europe. Big Zeb's jumping has become one of his best assets imo, at Punchestown behind Golden Silver last year he was electric. There's obviously very little between them though, and they probably won't be far away from each other again.
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How can a 12 year old find improvement to win?
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Big Zeb won't be 12, and I perhaps he won't need to improve
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Good stuff everyone!
Golden Silver is another interesting one for me.. if it comes up soft, or even better, heavy!! Cheltenham is due a heavy going festival. Sizing/Tataniano would struggle. Big Zeb, and Golden Silver would improve. I could see Golden Silver easing past them up the hill in those conditions. Plus you'd have so many massive price winners on heavy in the other races! I cant wait for a heavy Festival! |
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To match the drinking of course!
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