Sageform ... you can back him at 25s any race with wh.

PUT THE KETTLE ON..... (b f 10th Mar 2014) One For Luck RC, Henry. (Arkle 20's - likeable sort, but no chance - a few yards haven't played their hands yet incl Hendo)

Sageform - just checking you saw my post 21.37 yesterday

Indeed Sage, Tizzard did target Native River at this one as well, but for the good’ish ground which suited the winner, he probably would’ve won.

His hurdles form is questionable, but he did win a 3m G2 Hurdle at Cheltenham last year.

Knowing Tizzard he’ll probably target it at the Arkle now! See Finian’s Oscar for previous with bizarre placement of novice chasers!

Apart from the obvious, the one I took out of Saturday was Crievehill. He may be a bit hard to place but could he be a National horse?

I think Champs race will prove to be a good one.

Just hearing Nicky saying Epatante is a 2 miler so hold your bets. With Buveur D'air under a big cloud, the Champion Hurdle seems in Willie Mullins' hands unless a new contender emerges.

Who impressed you the most on Super Sunday

Envoi Allen - Royal Bond, Supreme winner in waiting ? 

Fakir D’Oudairies first 4yo to win the Drinmore ! 

Honeysuckle - welcome new 'Queen' of racing ?

All three very impressive but time will tell how good they are.

DARVER STAR
(3rd today @20/1, only 1½L Envoi (Davy) and 2½L Abacadabras (Jack Kennedy) - ridden by Jonathon Moore, ran absolute stormer to finish just 4L back in Grade 1 Royal Bond - maybe not the 'best horse', but an eye catcher all the same - Owner SSP Number Twentytwo Syndicate / Trainer Gavin Cromwell.

“That’s a relief but they are two very good horses. We like Abacadabras a lot and we think Envoi Allen is the real thing," said Elliott - Champion Hurdle Poor Paddy 8/1 (from 12/1).


FORM...
Wexford Fri, 5th Apr, 2019 (1st) 2m4f..."over two miles was just too sharp for him.....he'll jump a fence in time".
Downpatrick Sun, 11th Aug, 2019 (1st) 2m3f...a break freshened him up... he did relish that ground (G/Y) and might benefit from going further too.
After Killarney Wed, 21st Aug, 2019 (1st) 2m1f... "I can't wait until he jumps a fence, he'll be a lovely horse over fences and please god he stays right and he'll go chasing shortly. He doesn't want knee-deep ground and doesn't want it too soft but will race away for the winter.
At Listowel Wed, 11th Sep, 2019 (1st) 2m4f... "When he jumps a fence he might improve again, and there is a good chance he could go chasing this season".
After Limerick Sun, 13th Oct, 2019 (1st) 2m5f... He could go up to three miles but could also go back in trip as well. You'd have to stick to the novice route for the moment the way he is going.

I know the arkle is going to be by far the majority call for FD. But I am not sure it makes sense if jumping is his key weapon and he stays the jlt trip which I am convinced he does. If you make ground on all your rivals at every fence and you stay doesn’t it make pragmatic sense to run in the race with more fences?

I understand completely the pace angle but I cannot believe he wouldn’t have put just about every novice chaser to the sword at the pace he was going today. I don’t think he needs to go any faster to cement his advantage.

Duffy Yes I understand that’s what I mean by understanding the pace angle but I am far from convinced by the argument that the advantage per fence will go up enough in the arkle to exceed the advantage of almost a third more fences. In other words the advantage per fence would have to increase by almost a third to justify running in the arkle. Dubious to say the least imo.

....which it's more likely to be on day one

sage Your post has confused me. On one hand you state that jumping at speed caught Samcro out and gave FD his advantage and on the other say the longer the race the less impact there is on losing ground over fences. Yesterday’s race was over the JlT trip not the arkle trip and so obviously wasn’t long enough to help,Samcro and the others and presumably the pace was already quick enough for his jumping to hurt them to the point of no return.

Again I get the pace angle. Let’s do the maths. The jlt is run over 17 fences and the arkle over 14. Let’s say Samcro and FD are running in an hypothetical JLT and let’s say FD is gaining an average of 2 meters per fence. That is a total of 34 metres over the course of the race. In order to gain an even bigger advantage over the arkle trip and 14 fences the advantage per fence would have to increase to over 2.4 metres per fence. That is a significant increase and not one I would be confident would be realised.  Let’s say I am a connection of the horse and I believe the horse stays the jlt trip (which I personally am convinced he does) and let’s say I trust him to jump as well again in the JLT ... I have just seen for myself what that does to my horses opponents. Now I am faced with a decision to abandon what I have just seen and trust on the assumption that if I reduce the number of fences increase the pace I will get a much bigger gain per fence and be better off. Yes it is possible but to me an unnecessary risk.

Hey I am the minority here RW was emphatic about the arkle and the markets agree.

I see FD putting the kind of performance in the JLT as uxizandre did in the Ryanair. Interestingly when they dropped Uxizandre in trip next time his own jumping went.

Ok it has absolutely nothing to do with linear or black and white or anything. It is actually very simple. Many people have spoken about him gaining ground with his jumping. Gaining ground is obviously a real and tangible distance of ground .... this may be a length length and a half or whatever. For the arkle to be the right race solely on jumping it simply means he will gain more ground through the entire race through his jumping than he would in a JLT. Because there are more fences in a JLT then for the arkle to be the right race he will have to gain significantly more ground per fence than in aJLT. That is not linear or black and white it is Just very elementary Janet and John level maths.

Obviously Duffy you think he will gain significantly more ground per fence in an arkle and I am very dubious. For the millionth time I accept the pace angle and while I can see it increasing his jumping superiority I am very dubious as to whether it will increase it enough to counter less fences that’s all. He showed yesterday that he is capable of making very significant gains on his rivals through his jumping in a 20f race. Gaining more than that with less fences in an arkle is certainly not a given and imo deserves serious consideration.

Everybody was screaming for uxizandre to run over 2 miles after his Ryanair win. They all said the same thing. His jumping will destroy horses over 2 miles. Well his jumping had already just destroyed the Ryanair field. They tried it once he jumped badly and I may be wrong but I don’t think he ever  ran over 2 miles again and from memory I think they actually stepped him up to 3 miles.

I am now off to stick my head in the oven

I can see both sides but the Arkle is a unique race when jumping seems to play a bigger part than in most races. The first run of fences are usually OK but the ones after the home bend are the ones that often decide the result. If I owned Fakir I would run in the Arkle as I doubt if many opponents will match his speed over fences so they will be under pressure to catch him and make mistakes. If I owned Samcro I would run in the Stayers Hurdle.

and since those 3 won, the 5yo weight allowance has changed. The logic was that early maturing French breds had an unfair advantage.

I wonder if connections would look at the state of the race and the ease that Samcro was travelling at his point of departure and consider whether they'd fancy taking him on again in a JlT, as although he ultimately fell, the pressure put on him in that race through FD jumping hadn't apparently got him off the bridal. They may then consider that if the race had been shorter and they asked FD to go a stride quicker, the 2 lengths lost at each fence may have been more with more pressure put upon the weak part of Samcro's game. IMO, we were deprived the sight of Samcro ultimately going on to win impressively, and if that was right, with the stellar way that FD had gone through the race then that would be a concern for that horse.

Perhaps Duffy. Personally I am firmly with irishone on this one in all aspects. I think if Samcro jumps like that in a championship race he will have top quality horses all around him and very soon will just get shuffled back and race over. It’s one thing to make mistakes when others aren’t pressuring you to your side and immediately behind you and another thing entirely in a deeper race. I also feel it is next to impossible to get anything remotely representing value about the horse and there are many people to blame for that.  Not for me at all but I know how much you rate him so I genuinely wish you the best of luck and if he wins a chase at the festival I will be on here saying hats off to you sir.

To me the fact that they are already contemplating stepping him up in trip makes me think they have doubts. He is a very valuable asset and I just hope they make the best possible decisions for the horse.

bTW if anybody is remotely interested. 3 5 year olds have run in the arkle  this decade st calvados, clarcam and his excellency. 5 in the jlt with 2 second places (Terrefort and Bristol de mai) one faller (when still travelling well ) Djakadam and two unplaced Vukovar and Argocat. Interestingly Terrefort and BDM were the two most experienced with 12 and 13 runs respectively and FD has had 11 to date. Make of that what you will.

Champ