Cheltenham Festival
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Staying Gold Cup distance 
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On a serious note - don't think we saw a massive contender to Long Run there and not sure we have as yet this season early days though.
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Quito is a big player imo. Fairly sure he'll come on for that run
Hope HDB and co can give up on the Sizing Gold Cup dream now |
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i'd be worried how readily it was outpaced. for 7/8ths of the race sizing europe looked a real player travelled beautifully. still love to see him in the king george.
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He was outpaced by faster horses who didn't get home!
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correct and in a gold cup he may well be outpaced by faster horses who do get home,
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Potentially, time will tell. Sizing was race fit though + Nighty seems best fresh
Really rate Quito + hope he needed that run. |
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daft as this may sound. i think denman each way is a decent bet built for gold cup trip
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Can't see him reproducing this year's run another year older. Wouldn't want to put you off though, he's no ordinary 11 (soon to be 12) year old!
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i can see it i really can not winning but placing
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Howdi, I think that's fair enough. We know Denman stays the trip which, so far, most of the rivals do not. Early days, but I don't think I've seen anything yet this season that would beat either Long Run or Denman in the Gold Cup.
QDLR was disappointing yesterday. I'm sure he'll come on for the run, but there's no way in the world he'll have the chance to make up 20 lengths on Denman/Long Run in the Gold Cup at GC speed so he's got to be able to travel closer to the leaders. It was a shame Bostons Angel fell - I feel he was going better than Quito at the time, though they were a long way out and one can't say which would have stayed on better. The other things that would worry me about Quito is that he has zero Cheltenham form or experience - and that seems to be a crucial ingredient for the championship chases at the Festival. I guess he may run in the Argento, but I couldn't back a horse for the GC that had never seen the course. As for Sizing Europe - well surely that settles his festival trip once and for all.... |
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connections of sizing now aiming for the national only logical coclusion after yesterday
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sizing was the best horse in race by a mile yesterday, travelled like a class act , just outstayed on ground he doesnt like, cheltenham will be different ball game all together, quito is just a soft ground plodder at best, absolute zero chance of winning the gold cup, hasnt got the speed, wont get within 30 lengths of long run, its current price at the moment is a joke, quito will be outpaced in the gold cup as the ground will likely be good / good/soft, ill be laying this horse all the way, sizing europe is simply an awesome horse and hdh will have this beast trained to the day for the festvial whatever race he goes for.
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Quito was plenty quick enough at Punchestown on decent ground
 Taylor made for the Gold Cup imo. |
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just outstayed??
he could barely walk,and if they dont run him in the QM,they need their heads tested. As for Quito,that was his first time out,and i would expect him to be a lot fitter next time.Will reserve judgement till later in season,but one thing we do know,the GC trip wont be a problem. |
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thas fine , all have our own views, i just think hes a soft ground horse, which he wont get a chelt, and doesnt have the speed,can u really see this plodder keeping up with long run? if u do ur very much mistaking, long run will improve this season imo, is 16's for the gold cup yet hes never once beaten a true gold cup horse, like denman, long run, kauto, etc, if u class quito up wiv these 3 then i dont no what racing is coming too, quito is a good horse but wiv serious limtiations when talking about the gold cup, come on lets be sensible, kauto and denman are on there way out, long run took over now, youngest ever winner of the golf cup, and is a machine need i mention onratings quito is 2 stone from long run, but hey that f**k all !
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just one thing to add, question to budd and slab, if the race yesterdy was on good ground, which is what you get at the festvial, would quito of beaten szing europe?
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he has form on good ground,and its possible he would have won yesterday on it,also possible he would'nt.
Dont know the answer for sure,but i do know that 3m2f round Chelt is too far for SE,and Quito will relish it. |
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denman85 06 Nov 11 17:45
just one thing to add, question to budd and slab, if the race yesterdy was on good ground, which is what you get at the festvial, would quito of beaten szing europe? You're mistaking early season, first time out form as having any relevance to what happens at the Cheltenham Festival. Are you telling me you had Long Run picked out as the Gold Cup winner when failing to win the Paddy Power first time out last season? Did you suggest Sizing Europe had no chance in the Queen Mother after being beaten right left and centre early season? Did you write off Captain Chris during his spell of seconditis? Quito had no right to beat a race fit Sizing Europe first time out, after missing two weeks work, and having to take him on off level weights, when he would have been getting massive lumps of weight in a handicap. He did win, he keeps on winning, and has a great attitude. Given improvement over the next 4 or 5 months, he's be a viable candidate at the Gold Cup, and will be running his best race at the finish. Long Run could well turn out to be the next Kauto Star, and I hope he does, but beyond him, there doesn't appear to be great strength in depth at present, and the old adage is that you should never be afraid of one horse. |
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^ nail, head
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yep
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my doubt over LONG RUN
why are on earth didn't he win the paddy power off 158 ? |
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wasn't doped up then Howdi
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howdi, how can u have doubs over long run, he won the gold cup last year, so u cant say my doubts, hes the champ, and the paddy power is a handicap wear he was giving 2 stone or more to the winner, and if u remeber the race, long run jumped awful all the way around, and sizing wud of beaten quito on good ground, after all were disscussing a horse who are proven class acts the best 3miler in long run and best 2 miler in sizing europe, and your tlking about a wannabe gold cup horse, whichyear proberly does deserve to line up but has no serious chance of winning, quito is a soft ground horse, that stays all day, you need speed and stamina in gold cup and he hasnt got the pace, wont get within 20 lengths of long run
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What would Kauto Star or even Denman have done in that Paddy Power off 158?
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^Long Run was giving 10 lb to the winner of the Paddy Power (who beat him 5 l).
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...at the same/similar stages of their careers...
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like i sed it was long runs first race back from chelt, and he jumped awful, he was a 5 year old then, just a baby, hes improved no end since then, king george and gold cup wins and i can see this winning anthoer 2 3 or maybe 4 gold cups and i can see quito winning 0
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long run beat up dads army .cant see him having it so easy this time round capt chris looks like the winner to me.what about tidal bay
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Kauto would have won by 2 fulongs.
And Denman would have front run and jumped the last 19 lengths clear. |
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tidal bay?
Gold cup? |
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2 months between the PP and the KG,tells me he either improved a great deal in a short time or he beat a non stayer and a horse past his best at a distance more suited,or a bit of both.He then went on to beat horses past their best in the GC.
Jurys still out for me. |
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young up and coming real good stayers to beat this season,interesting times to come for sure.
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IMO Quito would have to start now to beat Long Run. Likewise Boston's. And Sizing would have to start at 12f.
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Hi RC,trust you are well mate.
Respect your opinion my friend,but i do think you are being a bit hasty there mate. Apart from the sizing comment. These are real proper stayers and will relish 3m2f round Cheltenham. |
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the gold cup is ran at a pace that would take quito off his feet, i think if he set off now he still wud not beat long run, long run is a class act, no1 can argue any different, quito is a soft ground plodder, no1 can argue ne different, quite simple
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Hi R Carver - time for my usual comment of agreement!
I watched the race yesterday with a very open mind and although I think Quito will come on, I just don't see him being speedy enough to live with a Gold Cup field. Stamina is vital for any Gold Cup protagonist but tactical speed is also important - it's been a long time since an out and out stayer won the Gold Cup. Quito is an improver, that's what you'd have to say, and he plainly has a very likable attitude. But I don't think he has the speed and/or speed in class races to be involved in the blue riband. Long season and all, but he only just saw off Sarando (runs tomorrow at Carlisle) to win at Aintree (more of a speed track) and can't help feel Long Run would have smashed that one to smithereens. Time will tell, but he's certainly not for me. Wrong thread I know, but just out of interest, does anyone know anything about Thegreatjohnbrowne? Not seen for ages but form ties him in closely with the best novices of last year and he's incredibly unexposed. Not thinking of the Gold Cup necessarily but could be a live one for Graded races in Ireland. Am usually pretty good at tracking down news but haven't heard a chime about this one in eons. |
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HI Budd - hope you too are well mate.
I could be wrong, and I may be being a bit hasty. He may also improve for the run too. QDLR looks a slow horse to me, and unless it comes up like soup, I think he will not have sufficient speed. I agree about stamina being essential in the race, that is my starting point. I can kind of see him doing a Mom Mome and plugging on from miles back into a place - I do not mean that to sound unfair, Quito is obviously a G1 winner, with a willing attitude, I just mean he might get a bit detatched and then stay on. Evening Tom - one of these days we will disagree! Not sure about TheGreatJohn... He had completely slipped off my radar. If i can find out, I will post. |
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denman85
of course there is a question mark - he ran off 158 and didnt win - very very odd he beat 2 legends who were are past their best of course there is doubt otherwise he be 2-5 to win again not 5-2 |
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denman85 Joined: 11 Jan 11
Replies: 238 06 Nov 11 19:41 the gold cup is ran at a pace that would take quito off his feet, i think if he set off now he still wud not beat long run, long run is a class act, no1 can argue any different, quito is a soft ground plodder, no1 can argue ne different, quite simple if you want to preach to us fair enough but this is a forum my old son and as such we dont need telling we can't argue any different cheers |