Evening Howdi - I do not read anything into him getting beat off 158 in a handicap probably short of his ideal trip, over tiring ground, when the winner was razor sharp, when the winner was given an inspired ride, when Long Run made crucial, stopping errors, and when (most crucially) the stable was under quite a cloud. The stable only really started banging winners in from NY day onwards.

I recall the outstanding chaser Jodami getting beat off about 150, off 10 stone, in the Hennessy, receiving 25lbs from The Fellow many yrs ago. 4 short months later Jodami put up a seriously impressive performance when winning teh Gold Cup. Admittedly, Peter Beaumont never had his horses very straight FTO (understatement of the yr!) but he could get them ready FTO and Jomami was backed to win the race (by me, particularly).

Wasn't it wonderful seeing him last week at Exeter working!

Btw, Kauto may offer a similar example to Long Run when he was beaten over too short a trip FTO by MOnets Garden at Aintree (giving a stone) all those yrs ago. Anyway, who knows! I am not sure i'd fancy Long Run FTO this yr, given that his trainer seems to be more keen on winning the King George and given the quality of opposition. I am also not 100% that Long Run would love Haydock.

Reasons why Long Run failed to win the PP and then won the KG and GC could include the KG and GC being weak races.
Its possible and Long Run to me aint the new coming,not yet anyway.
Hes quiet rightly fav for the GC,but we all know it aint as easy as that.
He will now be facing new,fresh and up and coming horses and not ageing ex superstars.

...with regards their handicap marks. Imperial Commander off 139!

I think Budd you do tap into something - only thinking of myself, but it can be easy to laud the incumbent, the reigning champ, and not see how s/he can be beaten. Invariably the new generation does contain good horses, and they usually do improve into their 2nd season. I may be dismissing last yr's novices too casually (not all - I think it contained some nice horses). Regarding Long Run as well, not many horses retain their crown.

FFT - I also remember after Aintree Paul Nicholls saying that he had been training Kauto to stay and not as much for speed, and that is also what he attributed Kauto's slightly laboured effort to that day.

Believe me mate,i do recognise i could well be wrong,and that LR could be some serious horse,after all he has won the KG and GC at such a young age,however good those races were.
Gonna be interesting to see who gets proven right in the coming months and years.
Just love this NH racing.

Obviously some lads can't handle an opinion, stating things as fact.

Of course Quito wouldn't have on that on good ground, but lets not forget he missed 3 weeks work not long ago. I'd say he'll improve a stone and a half from that, Colm Murphy is over the moon I'd say.

He's won on good ground, so let's forget all this 'soft ground plodder' nonsense.

yeh,you aint the only one knocking the RSA,and the time werent great,but they all should improve.
Thing is for me is that aside from Long Run,whom i still have doubts,their seems to be a load of doubtful stayers.
I can see the placings involving the novices,and imo its a case of whether any of them can improve enough to beat Long Run.
At the prices i am willing to take my chances.

^^ absolutly spot on he is as good as battler as ive seen

hardy eustace aside

dont think anything wrong with thinking that Denman,you could be right.I also think nothing wrong with needing more convincing as to whether Long Run is as good as you think he is or will be.
As always,time will tell.

so surely we can remove 95% of runners?

Tricky one this far away from the race Denman,and of course it all depends on what happens during the season.

ye possibly diamond harry might be in top 3?

at the moment there is, but as the season progress a more solid market will form, and then we can take out all but the top 3 !

Long Run won last year so is unbeatable innit?

DH might be,but its near impossible to predict.Fwiw i dont think DH will line up,think the same about CC,WT,MM as well.
Thats why i think the RSA horses plus Quito have chances,i think Long Run will be the only realistic opposition to them,and i stii aint convinced about him as i have said.

Lets be honest,apart from Denman and Kauto Star (who are both on the decline) he hasnt really beat any top class horses,so imo he is a shocking price at 9/4 to retain his crown at Cheltenham,i will be amazed if there's not at least 2 genuine contenders who will be a huge threat to him come march,and i will also be amazed if he goes off at his current odds or shorter on the day,he quite simply has to be layed in all his races this season because of the reasons ive already pointed out

OTS - could be right, but I think the horse could improve again (I know he has miles on the clock, but that has been lessened since he came over here). I am definately not saying he is the best GC winner I have seen, just that i think he is very good and is the one to beat (everyone surely agrees wit that, as reflected in his price). I like a couple of last yr's novices, but i also think it contained a few ordinary types.

Denman and Kauto may be on the decline (almost certainly, in fact) but IMO they put up decent yardstick performances and he beat them 7 and 11 lengths. He also beat What a Friend (twice a G1 winner (admittedly weak G1's)) by 11 and solid handicapper Midnight Court by 20l, Tidal Bay 23l.

r carver-  u mention about kauto and denman been very much on the decline, this is very much true, what u failed to mention was that although these are on the decline, they still run at a level that very few other horses can get anywere near, last year denmans gc performance was still an exceptional run regardless of age, what other horses at the moment can run up to that mark? very very few

R Carver-agree with you 100%,Tbh its just Long Run's price that puts me off him,i just dont think he should be 9/4 to retain his GC or anywhere near it,but thats just my opinion,4/1-9/2 would be a lot more realistic,how can anyone take the 9/4 when there's so many unknown novices who could be anything?but there's no doubt he's a very good horse,id just like to see him a bit more consistent,ie Kauto in his pomp had form figures of just 1s and 2s (a lot more 1s than 2s) and all in Grade 1 chases,Thats a horse deserving of a quote of 9/4 months in advance of the GC.
Denman85,Thats a good point you make,Both Denman and Kauto are still excellent horses there just not quite as good as they use to be,but as you've said that "not as good as they use to be" still makes them a lot better than most Grade 1 horses,id really love nothing more if they could prove me wrong this season and beat the likes of LR,just cant see it though but the simple fact is,if LR had beat Kauto and Denman when both in their prime then he would be 100% worthy of all the acolades,but as of now he still has it all to prove when he comes up against the new kids on the block