Just watched Sizing Europe race

On a serious note - don't think we saw a massive contender to Long Run there and not sure we have as yet this season early days though.

Quito is a big player imo. Fairly sure he'll come on for that run

Hope HDB and co can give up on the Sizing Gold Cup dream now

i'd be worried how readily it was outpaced. for 7/8ths of the race sizing europe looked a real player travelled beautifully. still love to see him in the king george.

He was outpaced by faster horses who didn't get home!

correct and in a gold cup he may well be outpaced by faster horses who do get home,

Potentially, time will tell. Sizing was race fit though + Nighty seems best fresh

Really rate Quito + hope he needed that run.

daft as this may sound. i think denman each way is a decent bet built for gold cup trip

Can't see him reproducing this year's run another year older. Wouldn't want to put you off though, he's no ordinary 11 (soon to be 12) year old!

i can see it i really can not winning but placing

Howdi, I think that's fair enough. We know Denman stays the trip which, so far, most of the rivals do not. Early days, but I don't think I've seen anything yet this season that would beat either Long Run or Denman in the Gold Cup.

QDLR was disappointing yesterday. I'm sure he'll come on for the run, but there's no way in the world he'll have the chance to make up 20 lengths on Denman/Long Run in the Gold Cup at GC speed so he's got to be able to travel closer to the leaders. It was a shame Bostons Angel fell - I feel he was going better than Quito at the time, though they were a long way out and one can't say which would have stayed on better.

The other things that would worry me about Quito is that he has zero Cheltenham form or experience - and that seems to be a crucial ingredient for the championship chases at the Festival. I guess he may run in the Argento, but I couldn't back a horse for the GC that had never seen the course.

As for Sizing Europe - well surely that settles his festival trip once and for all....

connections of sizing now aiming for the national only logical coclusion after yesterday

sizing was the best horse in race by a mile yesterday, travelled like a class act , just outstayed on ground he doesnt like, cheltenham will be different ball game all together, quito is just a soft ground plodder at best, absolute zero chance of winning the gold cup, hasnt got the speed, wont get within 30 lengths of long run, its current price at the moment is a joke, quito will be outpaced in the gold cup as the ground will likely be good / good/soft, ill be laying this horse all the way, sizing europe is simply an awesome horse and hdh will have this beast trained to the day for the festvial whatever race he goes for.

Quito was plenty quick enough at Punchestown on decent ground Taylor made for the Gold Cup imo.

just outstayed??

he could barely walk,and if they dont run him in the QM,they need their heads tested.

As for Quito,that was his first time out,and i would expect him to be a lot fitter next time.Will reserve judgement till later in season,but one thing we do know,the GC trip wont be a problem.

thas fine , all have our own views, i just think hes a soft ground horse, which he wont get a chelt, and doesnt have the speed,can u really see this plodder keeping up with long run? if u do ur very much mistaking, long run will improve this season imo, is 16's for the gold cup yet hes never once beaten a true gold cup horse, like denman, long run, kauto, etc, if u class quito up wiv these 3 then i dont no what racing is coming too, quito is a good horse but wiv serious limtiations when talking about the gold cup, come on lets be sensible, kauto and denman are on there way out, long run took over now, youngest ever winner of the golf cup, and is a machine need i mention onratings quito is 2 stone from long run, but hey that f**k all !

just one thing to add, question to budd and slab, if the race yesterdy was on good ground, which is what you get at the festvial, would quito of beaten szing europe?

he has form on good ground,and its possible he would have won yesterday on it,also possible he would'nt.
Dont know the answer for sure,but i do know that 3m2f round Chelt is too far for SE,and Quito will relish it.

denman85 06 Nov 11 17:45 
just one thing to add, question to budd and slab, if the race yesterdy was on good ground, which is what you get at the festvial, would quito of beaten szing europe?

You're mistaking early season, first time out form as having any relevance to what happens at the Cheltenham Festival. Are you telling me you had Long Run picked out as the Gold Cup winner when failing to win the Paddy Power first time out last season? Did you suggest Sizing Europe had no chance in the Queen Mother after being beaten right left and centre early season?

Did you write off Captain Chris during his spell of seconditis?

Quito had no right to beat a race fit Sizing Europe first time out, after missing two weeks work, and having to take him on off level weights, when he would have been getting massive lumps of weight in a handicap.

He did win, he keeps on winning, and has a great attitude.  Given improvement over the next 4 or 5 months, he's be a viable candidate at the Gold Cup, and will be running his best race at the finish.

Long Run could well turn out to be the next Kauto Star, and I hope he does, but beyond him, there doesn't appear to be great strength in depth at present, and the old adage is that you should never be afraid of one horse.

^ nail, head

yep

my doubt over LONG RUN

why are on earth didn't he win the paddy power off 158 ?

wasn't doped up then Howdi

howdi, how can u have doubs over long run, he won the gold cup last year, so u cant say my doubts, hes the champ, and the paddy power is a handicap wear he was giving 2 stone or more to the winner, and if u remeber the race, long run jumped awful all the way around, and sizing wud of beaten quito on good ground, after all were disscussing a horse who are proven class acts the best 3miler in long run and best 2 miler in sizing europe, and your tlking about a wannabe gold cup horse, whichyear proberly does deserve to line up but has no serious chance of winning, quito is a soft ground horse, that stays all day, you need speed and stamina in gold cup and he hasnt got the pace, wont get within 20 lengths of long run

What would Kauto Star or even Denman have done in that Paddy Power off 158?

^Long Run was giving 10 lb to the winner of the Paddy Power (who beat him 5 l).

...at the same/similar stages of their careers...

like i sed it was long runs first race back from chelt, and he jumped awful, he was a 5 year old then, just a baby, hes improved no end since then, king george and gold cup wins and i can see this winning anthoer 2 3 or maybe 4 gold cups and i can see quito winning 0

long run beat up dads army .cant see him having it so easy this time round capt chris looks like the winner to me.what about tidal bay

Kauto would have won by 2 fulongs.

And Denman would have front run and jumped the last 19 lengths clear.

tidal bay?

Gold cup?

2 months between the PP and the KG,tells me he either improved a great deal in a short time or he beat a non stayer and a horse past his best at a distance more suited,or a bit of both.He then went on to beat horses past their best in the GC.
Jurys still out for me.

young up and coming real good stayers to beat this season,interesting times to come for sure.

IMO Quito would have to start now to beat Long Run. Likewise Boston's. And Sizing would have to start at 12f.

Hi RC,trust you are well mate.

Respect your opinion my friend,but i do think you are being a bit hasty there mate.
Apart from the sizing comment.
These are real proper stayers and will relish 3m2f round Cheltenham.

the gold cup is ran at a pace that would take quito off his feet, i think if he set off now he still wud not beat long run, long run is a class act, no1 can argue any different, quito is a soft ground plodder, no1 can argue ne different, quite simple

Hi R Carver - time for my usual comment of agreement!

I watched the race yesterday with a very open mind and although I think Quito will come on, I just don't see him being speedy enough to live with a Gold Cup field. Stamina is vital for any Gold Cup protagonist but tactical speed is also important - it's been a long time since an out and out stayer won the Gold Cup.

Quito is an improver, that's what you'd have to say, and he plainly has a very likable attitude. But I don't think he has the speed and/or speed in class races to be involved in the blue riband. Long season and all, but he only just saw off Sarando (runs tomorrow at Carlisle) to win at Aintree (more of a speed track) and can't help feel Long Run would have smashed that one to smithereens. Time will tell, but he's certainly not for me.

Wrong thread I know, but just out of interest, does anyone know anything about Thegreatjohnbrowne? Not seen for ages but form ties him in closely with the best novices of last year and he's incredibly unexposed. Not thinking of the Gold Cup necessarily but could be a live one for Graded races in Ireland. Am usually pretty good at tracking down news but haven't heard a chime about this one in eons.

HI Budd - hope you too are well mate.

I could be wrong, and I may be being a bit hasty. He may also improve for the run too. QDLR looks a slow horse to me, and unless it comes up like soup, I think he will not have sufficient speed. I agree about stamina being essential in the race, that is my starting point. I can kind of see him doing a Mom Mome and plugging on from miles back into a place - I do not mean that to sound unfair, Quito is obviously a G1 winner, with a willing attitude, I just mean he might get a bit detatched and then stay on.

Evening Tom - one of these days we will disagree! Not sure about TheGreatJohn... He had completely slipped off my radar. If i can find out, I will post.

denman85

of course there is a question mark - he ran off 158 and didnt win - very very odd

he beat 2 legends who were are past their best

of course there is doubt otherwise he be 2-5 to win again not 5-2

denman85 Joined: 11 Jan 11
Replies: 238 06 Nov 11 19:41   


the gold cup is ran at a pace that would take quito off his feet, i think if he set off now he still wud not beat long run, long run is a class act, no1 can argue any different, quito is a soft ground plodder, no1 can argue ne different, quite simple 


if you want to preach to us fair enough but this is a forum my old son and as such we dont need telling we can't argue any different cheers

Evening Howdi - I do not read anything into him getting beat off 158 in a handicap probably short of his ideal trip, over tiring ground, when the winner was razor sharp, when the winner was given an inspired ride, when Long Run made crucial, stopping errors, and when (most crucially) the stable was under quite a cloud. The stable only really started banging winners in from NY day onwards.

I recall the outstanding chaser Jodami getting beat off about 150, off 10 stone, in the Hennessy, receiving 25lbs from The Fellow many yrs ago. 4 short months later Jodami put up a seriously impressive performance when winning teh Gold Cup. Admittedly, Peter Beaumont never had his horses very straight FTO (understatement of the yr!) but he could get them ready FTO and Jomami was backed to win the race (by me, particularly).

^^^ good post i forgot about jodami. can only be the trip i agree.

The great Kauto Star would have beaten little joss though off 158

Wasn't it wonderful seeing him last week at Exeter working!

Btw, Kauto may offer a similar example to Long Run when he was beaten over too short a trip FTO by MOnets Garden at Aintree (giving a stone) all those yrs ago. Anyway, who knows! I am not sure i'd fancy Long Run FTO this yr, given that his trainer seems to be more keen on winning the King George and given the quality of opposition. I am also not 100% that Long Run would love Haydock.

I know this is not the Long Run thread, but i think it is not inconceivable he could improve again. He ran plenty in France, admittedly, but he's not been campaigned hard in the UK, he is only 6 (apparently only 5 on Gold Cup day, being a May Foal), he has apparently grown again, and his jumping could improve. Too short for me at this stage, but I do think it would take a very good one to beat him, all things being equal.

Reasons why Long Run failed to win the PP and then won the KG and GC could include the KG and GC being weak races.
Its possible and Long Run to me aint the new coming,not yet anyway.
Hes quiet rightly fav for the GC,but we all know it aint as easy as that.
He will now be facing new,fresh and up and coming horses and not ageing ex superstars.

Kauto Star was giving Monet's Garden a stone, who iirc had already won one or two grade 1s, including the Melling Chase earlier that year.

I'd fancy a peak or near peak Kauto Star to give Little Josh 12lbs and a comfortable beating

Anyway, it's clear to see Long Run has improved a hell of a lot, and he wouldn't be the first big improver to come out of the PPGC. Imperial Commander + Exotic Dancer for example improved massively (upwards of 40lbs) from when they won the race

...with regards their handicap marks. Imperial Commander off 139!

I'll be firmly opposing Long Run all year fwiw as I don't believe he is the superstar that he has been made out to be and have been saying it for months now

I might be learning the hard way though!

I think Budd you do tap into something - only thinking of myself, but it can be easy to laud the incumbent, the reigning champ, and not see how s/he can be beaten. Invariably the new generation does contain good horses, and they usually do improve into their 2nd season. I may be dismissing last yr's novices too casually (not all - I think it contained some nice horses). Regarding Long Run as well, not many horses retain their crown.

FFT - I also remember after Aintree Paul Nicholls saying that he had been training Kauto to stay and not as much for speed, and that is also what he attributed Kauto's slightly laboured effort to that day.

I think the KG could be perfect for Sizing Europe. He has the speed and class to travel, and it doesn't have the hill and extra 2 and a bit furlongs of he GC.

I'm still not convinced by Long Run and will be backing TFR at Haydock as I think he'll improve for the first run.

While it wasn't quite the performance I was hoping for from QDLR he should come on a fair bit for that and should take all the beating in the Lexus & Irish Hennessy, then we'll see about the GC

Believe me mate,i do recognise i could well be wrong,and that LR could be some serious horse,after all he has won the KG and GC at such a young age,however good those races were.
Gonna be interesting to see who gets proven right in the coming months and years.
Just love this NH racing.

im laying the arse off tim too

Obviously some lads can't handle an opinion, stating things as fact.

Of course Quito wouldn't have on that on good ground, but lets not forget he missed 3 weeks work not long ago. I'd say he'll improve a stone and a half from that, Colm Murphy is over the moon I'd say.

He's won on good ground, so let's forget all this 'soft ground plodder' nonsense.

of course quito is a classy horse but the way he moves through his races he looks like a big lumbering plodder that really wants to see soft ground to show his best form....aside from long run himself he probably won't get soft ground at the festival....compare quito to pandorama who is another soft ground horse but when he gets his conditions travels and jumps and looks like a superior horse to quito imo......but look what happened to him in the gold cup absolutely battered out of sight on that good ground.

not too sure about the up and coming novices from last year myself...4 finished in a heap in the rsa, only 5 lengths in front of another that was sick.....and another (quel esprit) who is developing univesal dislike looked like he could have won if he'd stood up.

yeh,you aint the only one knocking the RSA,and the time werent great,but they all should improve.
Thing is for me is that aside from Long Run,whom i still have doubts,their seems to be a load of doubtful stayers.
I can see the placings involving the novices,and imo its a case of whether any of them can improve enough to beat Long Run.
At the prices i am willing to take my chances.

agree bud that aside from long run it's up for grabs....and anyone supporting quito at least there's one thing they've got on their side for starters...and that's a bloody good trier which ain't bad for starters.

^^ absolutly spot on he is as good as battler as ive seen

hardy eustace aside

i just think long runs best peromances are still to come, think hes got 2 0r 3 gold cup wins left in him yet, his golf cup run as a 6yo put him in front of kauto and denman at similar times in there careers, denman was running in the rsa as a 7yo and the best races of his career were from then onwards, think people are seriously underestimating how good long run is and how good he is going to be!

dont think anything wrong with thinking that Denman,you could be right.I also think nothing wrong with needing more convincing as to whether Long Run is as good as you think he is or will be.
As always,time will tell.

so whose ur idea of a gc winner for next year budd?  was reading sommit earlier, last 12 winners of gc have been top 3 in betting, so surely we can remove 95% of runners? although the proper market is yet to be formed  with horse running throughout the season, but once the market settles down , going by stats the winner has to come from the top 3, who do u think will make up the top 3 in the betting?

so surely we can remove 95% of runners?

Just one (potentially unimportant) thing to add regarding Long Run's chances of improving/cementing his status this year.

I had not seen him in the flesh before the Gold Cup so don't know if he has always looked so good, but believe me I'd have to put him in the Top 3 horses I have ever seen based on looks. He really is a beautiful, strong, wonderfully balanced horse. Having seen him in the enclosures after winning the Gold Cup, up close and personal, I must admit I became more of a fan and left thinking that it would take something very special to outpoint him in the future.

The issue I have regarding the Gold Cup (less so the Betfair or KG), is that his jumping is still far from perfect and with Sam Waley-Cohen on top there is always the potential for a spill at Cheltenham. If he learns to jump better I think he's probably home and hosed.

Tricky one this far away from the race Denman,and of course it all depends on what happens during the season.

Right now top 3 betting,i would guess Long Run,TFR and Bostons Angel.

ye possibly diamond harry might be in top 3?

theres about 14 joint 2nd favs so now what?

at the moment there is, but as the season progress a more solid market will form, and then we can take out all but the top 3 !

denman85
07 Nov 11 19:42 Joined: 11 Jan 11 | Topic/replies: 241 | Blogger: denman85's blog
so whose ur idea of a gc winner for next year budd?  was reading sommit earlier, last 12 winners of gc have been top 3 in betting, so surely we can remove 95% of runners? although the proper market is yet to be formed  with horse running throughout the season, but once the market settles down , going by stats the winner has to come from the top 3, who do u think will make up the top 3 in the betting?

Bloody hell,is this chap for real?id hazard a guess that the "top 3 in the betting" comment was the market on the day of the Gold Cup and not 4 months before the event,also your comments re Quito De La Roque are very ignorant and Disrespectful,heres a horse who's won 3 Grade 2s and 2 Grade 1s yet you write him off as if he's some sort of selling plater,were all entitled to our own opinions,but try put yours across in a more dignified manner if you want to be taken seriously

Long Run won last year so is unbeatable innit?

i never sed long run is unbeatable, i think if he gets round it will take something special to beat him. onthesnaff, ive clearly offended u by some comments ive made, sorry 4 that, im sure uve proberly written some horses off that maybe i havnt, but thats just people views

DH might be,but its near impossible to predict.Fwiw i dont think DH will line up,think the same about CC,WT,MM as well.
Thats why i think the RSA horses plus Quito have chances,i think Long Run will be the only realistic opposition to them,and i stii aint convinced about him as i have said.

Tomdeane

In the Feltham he looked physically completely imposing and powerful. I did not get down to see him before the RSA but some reports suggested he had run up light.

I did see him, however, in the paddock before Paddy Power last yr and what was immediately striking was what a specimen he is. But on top of his notable size, power and scope, was his presence. It may turn out he is the worst Gold Cup winner ever (I don't think so personally!) but the horse looked special, had real class and (if this is not stupid) seemed to know he was good. Cadoudal produced a fine stamp of a horse. He absolutely fills the eye  and I say this irrespective of his ability. In March I got a good inspection of him before and after the race and he is absolutely the perfect looking staying chaser IMO. Physically I think he improved between November and March.

Lets be honest,apart from Denman and Kauto Star (who are both on the decline) he hasnt really beat any top class horses,so imo he is a shocking price at 9/4 to retain his crown at Cheltenham,i will be amazed if there's not at least 2 genuine contenders who will be a huge threat to him come march,and i will also be amazed if he goes off at his current odds or shorter on the day,he quite simply has to be layed in all his races this season because of the reasons ive already pointed out

R Carver,you may be correct,however,look at what he beat in the GC,
Denman-old and on the decline
Kauto Star-Ditto
What a friend-not a genuine grade 1 horse
Midnight Chase-an improving handicapper
Tidal Bay-an old rouge
pandorama-a decent horse who needs to race on a bog
Neptune Collonges-not the force of old
Carruthers-average
imperial commander-getting on in years and didnt run his race anyway
Weird Al-a horse with potential who had plenty of problems last season
Kempes-not a proper Grade 1 horse
China Rock-average
That was no vintage GC,take out Kauto and Denman (11yo's dont win Gold Cups)and it was bang average imo

OTS - could be right, but I think the horse could improve again (I know he has miles on the clock, but that has been lessened since he came over here). I am definately not saying he is the best GC winner I have seen, just that i think he is very good and is the one to beat (everyone surely agrees wit that, as reflected in his price). I like a couple of last yr's novices, but i also think it contained a few ordinary types.

Denman and Kauto may be on the decline (almost certainly, in fact) but IMO they put up decent yardstick performances and he beat them 7 and 11 lengths. He also beat What a Friend (twice a G1 winner (admittedly weak G1's)) by 11 and solid handicapper Midnight Court by 20l, Tidal Bay 23l.

It's not as simple at looking at the opposition and stating they're flawed in some way....look at kauto's fist gold cup win...a lot of soft ground plodders in there isn't there....so that's the great kauto star knocked then

exotic dancer
turpin green
monkerhostin
cane brake
state of play
l'ami
neptune collonges
kingscliff
forget the past
the listener
my will
bob bob bobbin
halcon generaldais
marble garden
idle talk

what about denmans gold cup....even worse...kauto aside

neptune c
halcon gene
exotic
knowhere
a fisfulofdollars
azujelo
celestial gold
contraband
fustrien du paon
iron man

you can go on forever crabbing fields....but the impression that kauto denman gave in their pomp was that they were special......long run now gives that same impression.....looking at the field he beat doesn't undo that impression.

r carver-  u mention about kauto and denman been very much on the decline, this is very much true, what u failed to mention was that although these are on the decline, they still run at a level that very few other horses can get anywere near, last year denmans gc performance was still an exceptional run regardless of age, what other horses at the moment can run up to that mark? very very few

that was meant for onthesnaff* my mistake

R Carver-agree with you 100%,Tbh its just Long Run's price that puts me off him,i just dont think he should be 9/4 to retain his GC or anywhere near it,but thats just my opinion,4/1-9/2 would be a lot more realistic,how can anyone take the 9/4 when there's so many unknown novices who could be anything?but there's no doubt he's a very good horse,id just like to see him a bit more consistent,ie Kauto in his pomp had form figures of just 1s and 2s (a lot more 1s than 2s) and all in Grade 1 chases,Thats a horse deserving of a quote of 9/4 months in advance of the GC.
Denman85,Thats a good point you make,Both Denman and Kauto are still excellent horses there just not quite as good as they use to be,but as you've said that "not as good as they use to be" still makes them a lot better than most Grade 1 horses,id really love nothing more if they could prove me wrong this season and beat the likes of LR,just cant see it though but the simple fact is,if LR had beat Kauto and Denman when both in their prime then he would be 100% worthy of all the acolades,but as of now he still has it all to prove when he comes up against the new kids on the block

Hi Denman, I do think they are on te decline, but I do think they also put up acceptable yardstick performances. Long Run clear, clear favourite for me at this stage.

OTS - I agree that his price is not tempting at this stage, but the books would be flattened in a rush at 4s IMO.

Going to be an interesting few months!

i think he'll be shorter on the day, last year sp top 5 in betting were

long run 7/2
imperial 4/1
kauto    5/1
denman   8/1
midnight chase 9/1

although its nearly 4 months out and lots of cards to be played, but i cant see the market as close this year, as long run will widing the gap if denman/kauto run and its difficult to see anything improving enough to challenge long run, although its not impossible,

denman85 you may well be right,but if SE was to beat him in the King George,which is possible imo,(btw i fancy SE over 3 miles around kempton on good ground but cant have him at cheltenham over 3 miles plus on any ground)then surely LR would not shorten on the back of that?

i cant see long run getting beat round kempton bearing in mind nothing has got within 12 lengths of him in both races, (king george last yt and feltham previously) , although if anything is going to be a threat sizing is my idea of the next best.

Anyone think Rubi light has enough scope to improve to be a threat? Untried at the distance but is only a 6 year old at the moment.

Definitly GoldCup,i like that horse a lot,just not a big fan of the man training him,but dont think even he can stop this fellow been a GC Contender,massive big horse who travels really well in his races,good jumper,stays really well and isnt short of a gear or two,shame he picked up a minor injury last week as he was all set to take his place in the JWN Wines Chase in which Quito won,that would have told us a lot more about him,but i think he will be a GC Contender come march

KG entries out today - Sizing Europe not among them. Long Run/Master Minded/Kauto Star head the field on OR and RPR.