tbf to Quel Esprit, he has been asked to step up in company and trip at the same time, plus he was hardly ridden out. He had no company from post to post, he was rpobably bored and had no idea how long he had to keep running.

Some horses improve for the company they are in. I know he's hardly posted some excellent form in winning a rubbish hennessy, but he can improve on that in the gold cuo. Simply his jumping and staying can get him in the top five when kauto starts to put them to the sword. He'll defo be out paced and probably end well over ten behind but no reason to be surprised if he comes third.

He's decent enough. Though needs a trip like b365 or welsh national next season if mark is the same after the gild cup. Perfect staying type with some speed, the borse he gave 11lbs to ahdnan murdering over 2m3 was a very unlucky loser in a 2m grade 2 today. He has that speed to do something to win a race as long as his lungs are still working.

Quel Esprit has another big win in him. But i'm a confirmed super gayer for the horse. Love him, he's my avatar on the wise old sage forum eslsewhwre on the web.

CVB - excellent post @ 00.36.

Thanks mate, I'm home on Friday drom my world travels so will prob have a few more posts on here. Hopefully I can ditch this annoying touchscreen nonsense for a real keyboard. It makes a big difference.

Seems like far more people on here these days, threads vanish to the second page in just one day.

CV
You talked me into backing QE without the favs the other week,although i had backed him for the GC at start of the season.
Watching his run in the Hennessey i was not overly happy to be honest,but reading your comments above has made me rethink a tad,and i think you make some valid points,should give us a run for our money i reckon.

I know there are questions about P Nicholls horses, but WAF didn't run badly to me last Friday. PN has made no secret that he's being trained for only 2 races this year, The Gold Cup and Punchestown.  He's followed the same pattern as last year , a run in the Autumn, The Denman and The GC next.  Last year on official ratings he improved 10lbs from Newbury to Cheltenham.  He's still available on here at 60's and it's too big.  Similar improvement puts him right in the mix. I know he finished behind BP and LR on Friday, but the differential in price does not give an accurate reflection of his chance IMO. He finished a nose behind Kauto LY.

in slow poke races on horrible going in Ireland

let's see how he jumps at Gold Cup pace on good ground round cheltenham

Yes Judo bit of an unknown,not afraid of that.

I think that's tue Thieves. It would just take an astonishing improvement in the space of a month to win the Gold Cup after you could throw a blanket over him, Treacle, Roberto Goldback and Follow the Plan.

Shock, I'm afraid I've lost faith with WAF and layed off my Gold Cup bet on him for a small profit. He seems to have plateaued and I can't really see him improving past Burton Port, let alone the principals. Still have some on him in the w/o LR and KS market because it represents reasonable value.

As for Time for Rupert - the horse is a machine - a Reliant Robin.

Phil Smith on Long Run, the AON Chase and the CGC -

Long Run I have performing to 178. Burton Port's 166 +10lbs weight and I called the half a length as 2lbs. as like his owner I believe Long Run was idling in front. There has been some total nonsense written that it was a disappointing run. For me it was an excellent trial for the Gold Cup. Last year Long Run improved 3lbs. from 179 in the King George to 182 in the Gold Cup and I have no doubt he will do at least the same again this year between the Denman Chase and the Gold Cup so he is sure to run at least in the low 180's under his optimum conditions including going up the hill 3 times and over 2.5 furlongs further.

The big question is can Kauto Star replicate his Kempton 183 in the King George at Christmas at Cheltenham in March? He will have to if he is to win the race. So far his performances in the Gold Cup have been 172, 174, 186, 0 and 169. He did it in 2009, it will be fascinating to see if he can do it in 2012

I agree, quite a ridiculous comment.

He's talking like a punter rather than a disinterested observer. Far too unequivocal saying he has no doubt. On balance I agree with his view though and had he said if Long Run runs to the mark he thinks he might then he could run to a mark in the low 180's that would have been more balanced.

I think he has overestimated the lot of them frankly

he is basing his Denman Chase rating on The Giant Bolster as a 160 effort which I can't agree with. For me he bounced after his huge effort at Cheltenham and ran a fair few pounds below the Cheltenham mark. This drags Long Run down too. Anyway, the absolute numbers are not so important, it's the relative merit that counts and the Denman is the best chase form this season my numbers which makes me think double figure prices for Burton Port are generous

Numpty.  Explains the inflation of ratings in that division...

yes! good point, had not considered WAF and TB - will look again and see what I think of them

I hope Medermit lines up in this race ,on good ground I think he's got every chance of running a big race
. He ran well at Ascot last time despite appearing to dislike conditions , previous to this he stayed on really well over 2m 5f giving nearly a stone away to 2 real quality horses.
Alan king has reported that a decision is imminent over whether he runs in this or the Ryanair. He's 80/1 now ,but I cann't back him until they commit. If they run in the Ryanair I won't be backing him.

It's always a price thing. If he was 14/1 for the Ryanair and a definite runner I'd be backing him, but
he's not he's 8/1 and their is a significant chance he won't run. If lines up in the Ryan air I'd estimate his true odds to be around 8/1 ,if he lined up in the gold cup I'd have him no bigger than 20/1
on good ground. Given his present odds  theres little chance of me backing him in the Ryanair but a possiblity I could back him for the Gold cup.

so I'm alright with 16s and 180 then?

As Giddy's post above asks about Carruthers, I'd like to know if anyone has any news about Diamond Harry & Time For Rupert, or if someone can point some of us to a website where constant updates are given on all the Cheltenham possibles.

It's so irritating to 'learn' of possible running plans by reading the markets on here!

The chasers above have got no chance of winning the race as I see it, but it's important to many of us to balance AP books, and the place betting (or without the market leaders) is up for grabs with ANYTHING in with a shot, on a going day.

Grands Crus strong for GC and very weak fo RSA - decision made ?

GOLD CUP comments from the preview nights.........

Paul Nicholls - It just astounds me how Kauto Star looks. He did a strong 5f with Big Buck’s and for the first time in a long time he took a long time to pull up. His enthusiasm is unbelievable. He is in as good form now as before Haydock and Kempton. Ruby schools him on Friday. Not having Denman harrying him this year will be in his advantage and I also think there is more pressure on Sam (Waley-Cohen) this year. I don’t think Long Run has trained on. Paul Nicholls said Kauto Star was in top form at home, as good as he has seen him Wasn’t sure Long Run had trained on, and that meant there was not a lot between them. PN- Kauto better than last year. Chelt will help Long Run but Kauto won 2 Gold Cups. Feels Long Run not improving had a lot of hard races in France as a young horse. Says if Burton Port was trained by anyone else he would have gone past Long Run in the Denman Chase. Long Run one to beat if he jumps well. Won't run Kauto unless he's 100% for the race. To me it seemed it was less likely Kauto would run. Said What A Friend will run well.

Philip Hobbs - Captain Chris has always jumped to the right but not like that before. Let’s see how we go in the next two weeks, he’s in the Ryanair as well but may not go to Cheltenham. If there was an obvious race on a right handed course he would go there but there isn’t now until Pucnhestown. He’s not looking great in his coat right now. Philip Hobbs was asked about Captain Chris, he said he has always jumped right, so that was not an issue as such, however he was not at his best IF HE RAN it would be Ryanair or Gold Cup, however then said he wouldn’t really want more than 3 miles, so I (Catch Me If You Can) give him next to no chance of running in the Gold Cup, and I got the impression he was by no means certain to run at the Festival

Nick Williams - Diamond Harry has had a wind op. That’s the first time I’ve done it mid season and wouldn’t do it again, I’d wait until the summer.

Paul Jones - Weird Al e/w for me. Doesn’t have a lot to find with Kauto and Long Run on Haydock form which came too soon after winning the Charlie Hall and has a very good Cheltenham record. Paul Jones thought the front two were vulnerable, and that Weird Al was the best bet at 20-1

Andrew King - I have a feeling that the big two could get beat but prefer Kauto to Long Run. What A Friend is a massive e/w price at 40/1. Andrew king thought What a Friend EW, although Paul Nicholls dismissed this saying 3rd was his best chance if everyone turned up

Nina Carberry – Synchronised

Patrick Mullins - Kauto with a view that Quel Esprit is his value.

Noel Meade thought the same with Quel Esprit (ie – value).

Andrew Lynch - Long Run.

Paul Carberry - Kauto Star.

Robbie Hennessy - Synchronised.

John Francome – Long Run

Jim McGrath – Long Run

Noel O’Brien – Long Run

Mike Cattermole – Long Run

Davy Russell – Midnight Chase. Long Run to win. But Midnight Chase has a great each way chance.

Tom Segal – Midnight Chase. Midnight Chase E/W. Also feels Burton Port could have won lto.

Hayley O’Connor - Burton Port

Paddy Power - Long Run much better last time. Jumping better. In The Kauto camp and hopes he can get there. Burton Port will improve. Puts up Midnight Chase D Costello gets a huge tune out of horse. Long Run is vulnerable but should win.

Joe Tizzard - Kauto been phenomenal. Weighing room got a bit emotional when Kauto won at Haydock.

David Pipe - Not sure Long Runs been the horse he was last year. Tom Scu rode The Giant Bolster in Denman Chase & feels Grand Crus would have gone very very close. Seemed quite confident Grand Crus would have won that race. Put up Quel Espirit E/W and also joked Grand Crus E/W. Thought Midnight Chase would come 5th.

Alice Plunkett - Midnight Chase E/W

Ruby Walsh -  Kauto Star has a chance but could struggle to beat Long Run over 3m 2f. He would not give up his ride on Kauto Star.

Barry Geraghty - Long Run will improve for his last run. Burton Port has an each way chance.

Jessica Harrington - There are questions overs Long Run’s jumping, but he should win. Burton Port can come third.

Donn McClean - Weird Al is the value of the race.

Tony Martin wouldn’t pitch Grand Crus in this early in his career. Quel Esprit not good enough, Kauto getting too old for this. Weird Al and Midnight Chase best of the rest.