Cheltenham Festival
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The Gold Cup 2012
The Gold Cup 2012
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Replies: 685
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No Denman not been since 96. Will be in the local with lads I see once a year. It's great.
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had he not conceading 10lbs he wins by a distance stront
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Long Run is very good, but you do over rate him IMO.
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He doesn't win by a distance which is 36 l+!!
If the weight does it's job, he wins by 11 l. That's if you believe it really is 1 lb per length which there's plenty of reason not to believe. All that said, I accept off levels Long Run would probably have won tidily today. |
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i think hes massively underatted, time will tell, neways off 2 study for 2morrow
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The speed ratings for this race are superb and there is no way this was an easy run race, certainly run in a relatively quicker time than the King George
hope to see the re-match! |
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Denman, just for you, I've just rewatched the race. Long Run did get in close at the 3rd last (the open ditch) and did jump it a little left, but he hardly lost any momentum. It was certainly much less of a mistake than, say, his last fence jump at Kempton.
Incidentally, I thought LR jumped the last 2 today really well (especially the 2nd last). |
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Makes me wonder how good Diamond Harry could be if his wind op has worked. Absolutely thrashed Burton Port off levels at Newbury but hasn't seemed the same horse since he came back this season. If he could be got right then 40-1 each way is huge although his Cheltenham form is also debatable.
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the gold cup will be the first race that you will see long run at full fitness this season.the work done on the schooling ground
on his jumping seems to have payed off. those who are expecting big improvement burton port could be way off the mark . the horse was reportedly flying at home and no way would a horse that had a 400 day lay off be sent out by nicky undercooked in fact the opposite would be the case. i have no doubt whatsoever that i have seen the next gold cup winner today. but i knew that before the race anyway. |
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I would expect more improvement from BP than LR as long as he doesn't bounce and he was given a considerate ride today and it would not surprise me if he reversed the form especially if Barry can launch him at a few of the final fences
can't wait now |
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Watching it again, Burton Port appeared to get really close in to the last, almost stop and took a very slow jump. It's hard to tell from the TV angle but it looked to cost him several lengths - maybe 4 or 5 as Long Run put in a big jump.
Longchamps - I just don't believe that Henderson would send a horse like Long Run to the King George without having him 100%. |
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he is being trained for one race mate dont even doubt it.
even the owner confirmed that everything so far this season has just been rehearsals. |
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Sounds like sour grapes because he was put twice in his place by a legend.
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Was that before or after he got beaten? For the Chairman of Cheltenham Racecourse to say he'd use the King George Chase as a rehearsal for anything is frankly a disgrace. Can you point me to the quote?
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he said it on ruk today .
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So after his horse had been beaten twice and then nearly beaten a third time.
Longchamps, I've said all over this forum I think Long Run is the most likley winner of the Gold Cup. I still think, just barely, that is the case. I don't share your confidence but you could easily be proved right. |
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tell you what though I think Kauto is now the lay of the season he might have held one of these two high class younger stayers off but if they both line up against him I can't see how he can win
everything for me now depends on Burton Port. Will he run in the Gold Cup? |
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I kind of agree with that Judo. After today I think Kauto's got more chance of beating Long Run and less chance of winning the Gold Cup.
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he certainly has less chance tonight than he had this morning - he has two high class opponents instead of one (if Burton turns up to run)
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Once again people are complicating a simple enough situation. At the bottom of the hill last year Long Run was a couple of lengths back and going backwards. He had run his race after clouting a few, was being hard ridden and was booked for an honourable third at best. Then came the hill and he pulverised them. That was over two and a half furlongs further than he has yet encountered this season. It was also after three times running up a heck of a hill. It was also on pretty fast ground which he patently doesn't want.
This year he twice gets beat by one of the fastest 3 milers there has ever been which is incidentally a horse which would almost certainly have beaten him had the gold cup been run over 3 miles last year. Suddenly people are scratching their heads. Well I'm going to say it as bluntly as I can hopefully without being too disrespectful. If you can't join the dots up then maybe you should stop handing over your money. |
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^ But do you think Kauto Star was as good in the Gold Cup as he has been this season? That's the question that prevents those dots being joined up so easily.
I am certain he was at least 7lb inferior last term, and as he has stayed up the hill to win the race before, I think Long Run has more to do this season. It's a lot closer - based on this season's form - than most people are making out. And yes, Burton Port ran a cracker today, and could well play a role next month. |
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Or, then Imperial Commander got injured and the two old horses started feeling very sore on the fast ground and slowed down up the hill making Long Run look like he was staying on more strongly than he actually was... If you cannot think outside the box, maybe you should stop handing over your money...
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well said tomdeane joining the dots up what a patronishing post that was.
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there is a headline on the RP says that the layers have shortened Kauto Star
surely that can't be right? Before today it was universally acclaimed as a two horse race and now it isn't any more both LR and KS should have been lengthened because Burton Port is a serious rival |
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Still a 2 horse race as far as im concerned.BP getting 10lb from a horse thats been stuffed by KS twice this season.
I cannot see any form that has BP as a high class GC horse. Yes he should improve for the run yesterday,but hes still way behind 2 horses and too far for me. When Kauto takes it up,and if he jumps as well as he can i expect the field to go off the back one by one and only 1 horse to be left with him at the end.Will be some running on at the end,but too late for 1st or 2nd imo |
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irrespective of what you think Budd, Burton Port went from unconsidered rag at 40/1 for the Gold Cup to a lively third favourite overnight and the maths therefore means that the other two should lengthen if the over round is to remain constant - simple as that, they have to be less likely winners
there is a perfectly reasonable scenario where he improves bundles for the race, appreciates the extra distance of the Gold Cup and jumps slickly on the day making him a danger to all and that prospect reduces every other runners chance compared to expectation before the Denman Chase was run |
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yes i see your point Judo,and as far as prices are concerned you have a valid one.
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tom seagall just confirmed what i said earlier that no way they would have brought burton port to the races any less than 100 per cent fit as it would be too dangerous after a long lay off.
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judo - appreciate the point but the real issue here is the Racing Post making a mountain out of a molehill.
Burton Port came in considerably but is still taking out a smallish percentage of the book, whereas Kauto moved from around 5.20 -> 4,90 on here, and Long Run was eased less than a quarter of a point. |
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so there is no prospect that the horse can improve for the run, appreciate the extra distance or get a more positive ride then?
 feck me every other horse is predicted to improve for its seasonal debut, including Long Run, Zarkandar and all manner of Cheltenham fancies but somehow Burton Port is going to produce his very best form on his comeback run after 440+ days off the track.... just sounds like nervous Long Run and Kauto backers to me and they right to be nervous |
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As far as BP is concerned,if he had shown GC form prior to yesterday i would agree,but he aint.
yes hes entitled to improve for a run after a long lay off,but it aint a definite. For me he has no form that gets him winning a gold Cup. |
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Leaving GC aside, and BP may bounce, i simply cannot have that BP would not improve for the run. He has always been a horse that has thrived on racing and often improved on subsequent runs. I also think NJH would have had him very sharp yesterday so not to cause damage but not fully tuned up. I think NJH knows more about training than Tom Seagall. In fact the idea that he would have been 100% IMO makes no sense at all.
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Judo - shortening Kauto is just smart bookmaking. Long Run looks more vulnerable than he did and Kauto is wildly popular with the public so a lot of money will come for him for name recognition and sentimental reasons. It wouldn't be the first time the bookies prices don't represent a horse's true chances.
 Budd, I slightly disagree about BP's form/profile. He came out of a senseational RSA finishing second and beating Long Run. he then won the novice G1 at Aintree. Next season he came second in a hot Hennessey beating Denman by a long way (albeit conceding a lot of weight). He then got injured and on his come back ran the Gold Cup winner to half a length. On a literal reading of the form that puts him about 11 lbs behing Long Run, but it's clear he is an extremely progressive horse. I'd say BP has the 3rd or 4th best form in the book, depending on how Weird Al and Long Run actually ran at Haydock (I don't think there's much between WA and BP on form). Eternal - I'm puzzled you say long Run doesn't appreciate fast ground given (I believe) he broke the track record at Newbury yesterday. |
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it may be smart bookmaking but any punter who backs Kauto at shorter odds today than he could have before yesterdays racing is frankly an idiot because the horse has gone from having one very strong rival to beat to having a strong rival plus another that ran that one rival close and could improve bundles
clearly Kauto has less chance of winning the Gold Cup now and that is a plain mathematical fact |
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Stront,
i think you are right in that he has 3rd or 4th best form in the book,and thats roughly where i would expect him to finish if LR and KS run their races on this seasons form. Maybe i am being a bit short sighted on BP form,i can see your points mate,his novice forms ok. Re the Hennessey,carrying 10st round Newbury is a lot different to 11st 10 at Cheltenham,and the horses he has to beat have proved they can do that no problem.Plus was Denman as good last season?we know Kauto was'nt for whatever reason. I am all for improving types,but i just cannot see him improving enough to cope with Long Run and Kauto Star off level weights.And Its also possible LR is still improving,at his age one could argue its likely. |
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Yes Judo, of course. But I don't think most punters are as sophisticated as you.
The logic goes. I've heard of Kauto Star. He's won2 Gold Cups. He's beaten Long Run twice already this season. I'll bet on Kauto Star. Budd, that seems fair. I'd just add that horses often win the Gold Cup with a (then) career best performance. It shouldn't be a surprise if something like BP or WA wins having improved 10 lbs. Of course that doesn't mean either of them will. I also think your point about BP and weight is a good one - he's not the biggest horse so extra weight could have more effect on him than on some others (which I also why I couldn't fancy him for the National carrying 11-9). |
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I think you should all take another look at the finish of the RSA chase 2010 and see the way BP finished to grab 2nd from LR. The extra 2f will suit both, but I think it will be close.
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ah yes I forget that most people don't like thinking, researching or taking time to reflect...
note to self: remember most people are idiots |
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Shock - I'm certain the extra 2 f and the tougher course will suit BP more than Newbury....
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Judo - good advice for life
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