Lon Gun's trainer's string was not right last November when beaten. He was also given lumps of weight to a horse in peak form and super fit from a prior run and was givena bad ride (STD getting free on ground that was hard to peg back on). The horse is very good, who knows whether 182 is correct, but knocking any of his form is mistaken IMO.

I really do not think the KG form is that weak either. The form of Riverside Theatre was mighty strong and he beat him senseless.

Weapon's Amnesty is a tailor made Hennessey horse, bit of an ask though first time out off his break, would have thought a spin over hurdles might come in handy beforehand

Was gonna say myself,i dont recall Riverside Theatre having mighty strong form.
I aint sure either about him being 182,and am quiet happy to be taking Long Run on this season coming.
Some good youngsters will give him more of a challenge than Kauto and Denman and IC were able to do last season,time had caught up.

people getting too carried away with weapons amensty imo

good horse

but record of injured horses coming back is rancid

I am not going to say Riverside is a Gold Cup winner but i do believe he is seriously good and i've always (since his bumper days) thought he was a stayer. Regarding the form of the King George, this is what I said hours after it -

He's 6 and he's beaten a horse rated 160 by 12 lengths without being fully extended. Rivseride gave 7lbs and a 10L beating to Golan Way the time before [i should have added - without coming off the bridle] - Golan Way is rated 146 and after receiving that beating he came out and gave 6lb and a 2l beating to Pearlysteps. Pearlysteps is rated 138 and after that beating he has since won a race himself.

Riverside Theatre may or may not be genuine grade 1 material, but he loves Kempton, clearly stayed very well (has always IMo needed a trip), and is only 7 having had only 1 run outside novice company before today. He is not some exposed, ordinary old nag, he is entitled to improve, particularly on his favourite track.

In 4th he beat 158 rated (possible non stayer) Nacarat by 25l - not as far as Kauto beat him last yr; A race fit Nacarat was beaten about 12l by a ring rusty Imperial Commander at Haydock (i'd expect Imperial Commander to dish out a bigger beating when at concert pitch).

I have no idea whther the winner acts round Cheltenham, but he left that form miles behind today (possibly because the track was not cheltenham), and dishing out a 12l beating to Riverside Theatre is at the very least decent form (as the above demonstrates). I dont think this form should be crabbed too much though i would think 180 is at least half a stone too much.

Since then Long Run put up a performance which may or may not have been the best Gold Cup in yrs, but IMO genuinely put up a performance that was above avaerage. He is a seriously good horse. The Cheltenham run proves he acts on the track - he was beaten in the RSA IMO because he was 9as the trainer claims) over the top. He was beaten in the Paddy Power IMO for the reasons I have given above. He will be camnpaigned well and IMO the only thng that can beat him is his jumping which even on te day of his best effort was not perfect - with better jumping (which i know is not guaranteed, and is the whole point of NH racing) he'd have been even more impressive in the Gold Cup. I'd be astonished is anything from the 4m or RSA novices beat Long Run.

I know Pride of Dulcote fell, and he may have won pulling a train by 20l at Ascot, but that was a nevertheless an impressive performance. The form was let down but he did not come off te bit to win by 10l.

I suspect Long Run may be vulnerable at Haydock - the trainer would rarely have a horse at his peak at that time of yr, be interesting to see who turns up, but you coudl see Nicholls sending something there razor sharp to try to upset the applecart.

RC - This is why racing is fun. I was at Kempton for the King George and my gut feeling as they crossed the line was that the form was weak.

I'll just add re Long Run, only 5 horses have won multiple Gold Cups since the war and at least 3 of those were superstars - it takes a special beast to do it - so if LR does, he's the exception rather than the rule.

Strontium - i agree, this kind of debate is fascinating! In respect of the RSA + 4m race, I mean this yrs was weakish, not last yrs - i agree with you, last yrs was a good renewal, notwithstanding RDS's valid point above.

I know a couple of people who were all in on Diamond Harry last yr and fancy him this yr. And yes, Long Run is trying to do something unusual in going for a repeat. I wonder (but i've no idea) whether it may become easier to do that now given the better ground, the better ground through the winter, and the typically lighter campaigns? I do not know, just a thought.

Interesting debate.

Regarding Weapons, his festival record is exception (obviously) and he would handle better gound so who knows..

Hi Reve - I agree the RSA is a tough race, but the form of the 2010 renewal (completely unlike 2009 even though Cooldine looked awesome) was very strong overall - However, I take your point that it may be the form of the race in general, rather than of the individual horses relative to each other.

I slighlty disagree about Burton Port who is a horse I rate a lot. At the weights he was very close to Diamond Harry in the Hennessey (having gone through the cross fence 5 out). I also think a stiffer course (ie Cheltenham) would really suit him (more than Newbury). I was disappointed that he got injured last season. It's fair to surmise that Long Run has progressed more than BP, but who knows by how much. I think at the current GC prices, Burton Port is good value.

RC - Diamond Harry looks to me a flat track horse and an autumn horse. They clearly haven't worked out yet how to get him near his best in spring. So I could see him putting up a big run in the King George, but I struggle to see him winning a Gold Cup. As you say, Weapons Amnesty is sellar at the festival and that's hugely valuiable - horses that have done well there before so often win the top races.

It's going to be a fascinating season - I can't wait.

wishful thinking good thingfor hennessey?

bust gutting attitude does not equal class

he will do well in a couple of handicaps tho[;)]

Yep mate,totally agree about Rupert,and at around 15 could well be value,real good Cheltenham form and despite a burst blood vessel showed his class in the RSA i thought to finish as close as he did.
If i really had to say now about last seasons novices,i would probably go with the majority and say they aint quiet good enough,but with likely improvement some of them could just surprise,and after all it does look a new generation has taken over and i would not be that surprised if one or two of the novices figured amongst the top at the end of next season.
I guess quiet often when a race is close that they turn out average types and that may well be the case with the RSA,but it could be that,Bostons,Jessies and Wayward Prince,as well as Rupert could actually be better than most think.Certainly keeping an open mind about it and their are some big prices knocking about if you do like them!!
Quito de la Roque is definitely improving i agree,so yes he could well be another potential GC horse,and i would not dismiss the other horse owned by Gigginstown who has form with Bostons,whose name escapes me,finished 4th in the RSA,i think.
All good stuff mate.

The other i'd take from the RSA is Quel Esprit. Clearly his jumping is an issue, but if he can get that together, i'd say he'd be a very good horse. big 'if' perhaps.

If you're reading Charles, the Hennessey is in November on a left handed track....

Gutted about this, was on at 33's for this years Gold Cup, and thought he had a great chance.

Hopefully he will be back next year but will be very tough having to come back from 2 years off.

As mentioned in this thread, the form of his RSA win is fantastic.

Theformman,

Its a shame that we won't get to see this machine again this year, and I think most National Hunt fans will be sad that he won't be at the festival in March.

You're just bitter because you probably put the mortgage on Long Run in the RSA and this fella creamed all over him!!