Cheltenham Festival
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Impressive today of course but wat a stinkin price for a race 12 months away 
5/4 with VC
5/4 with VC
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some horse will win all the english races and be touted as a rival, it happened with big bucks. Simply pile on Hurricane Fly like always and never think about it until he get beat.
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i think he will win of course but wat price is he gonna be on the day?Backin at 2/1 ish now not for me anyway |
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with his injury record god awful price
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Obviously you don't back him now. You back him when it's non runner no bet in march. There will be some rival by then holding up his price.
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Oscars well-hopefully!!
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i wouldnt be so sure that oscars well is anything special, people questioned the strength of his form (as did i) before the neptune, and then most only thought he may be good when he ran well in that. the form of the winner, second, 3rd and fifth suggests the race was weak
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i did say hopefully!!
he was very impressive in the race before Chelt,and also in the Neptune despite fighting his jockey much of the way.I agree the horses at Punch did not frank the form but i still think OW could be a real goodun over 2m. Hopefully  |
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He's the only possible threat to hurricane fly, if there is such a thing. Fly improved again for that run at punchestown and he'll be near or at the peak of his powers in next March. He is unstoppable.
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Did shot from the hip not boost the form?
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No horse is ' unstoppable ' CV. However good he's looked.
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He's as good as unstoppable. Only an accident or injury can stop him.
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neptune form im sayin dan...im not saying the horse is no good, just might not be as good as the bear form suggests
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Oscar was going to win as he liked in the neptune though.
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dont think so...
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I think hes a lot better than the bare form suggests tbh.
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Well that's just differing opinion reve. From my point of view he's sauntered home in two grade ones and was about to in a third before his mistake. So the fact the other four from the neptune have disappointed in their runs since is moot. He has yet to be exposed and as such is the chief danger to hurricane fly imv.
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I reckon Oscar Whiskey with another year on his back might be the main danger.
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me too neil but we dont need hurricane improving
alsp spirit son impressed me at aintree |
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Oscar Whiskey was really too far back to improve past Fly, especially as Fly ran a pretty poor race at Cheltenham, way too freely didn't settle at all.
He's learning all the time and if settling well he will be unstoppable. He's so fast that his cruising speed is at a level no other horse can even match all out. Match that with an abundance of stamina (has anyone seen this horse ever get tired?) and an abundance of guts and a will to win. He's probably the perfect champion hurdle horse, he's bomb proof as a physical specimen. |
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I agree CV HF will win, but I think Oscar is still improving as well, I could see Geraghty riding him more prominently and I like the way Henderson speaks about him. The fly looks different class though. I don't like the look of most of the hurdlers coming through except Spirit Son in terms of making up into CH horses.
CH may be a race that lacks depth next season and it might be no harm to have another onside in case something goes awry with Hurricane. I think PC will go chasing and so will one of Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre, more likely the latter. If we can anticipate successfully whats going to show up, we might be able to put ourselves in a position for a nice trade if nothing else. I'd be interested to fear your thoughts on whether a Montjeu would still be improving at 8, not that he has to,if he can maintain his level, that will be plenty good enough. |
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hear rather, just there has always been the old chesnut of Montjeus beyond three on the flat, I don't know really, maybe it just applies to full horses, Hurricane Run is a good example, I've heard it said that they sulk. The Fly seems one of the most willing horses I have seen though, I myself would be more worried about wear on tear for a flat bred horse who has been racing since he was 2.
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absolutely cv, yeah, diff of opinion. unless somethin improves very much, oscar whiskey, general miller etc, hurricane fly should breeze it again, barring injury obv...
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Oscar Whiskey will be trained for the World Hurdle
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Thats on pretty solid authority
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Owner even said they will go world hurdle our chafing with oscar whiskey next season so drop don't back him for champion.
As for Hurricane Fly, NH is very different to the flat. Once gelded temperament changes, fly will improve in how he runs his races. Firstly he got worked up at cheltenham by the occasion and was running far too freely that he had expended too much energy early. He was more relaxed at punchestown and the strong pace set by binocular helped. So he will improve on this seasons champion hurdle performance, a stronger race pace too will help. He doesn't need to improve in the adopted department, he's already the fastest I've seen jump a hurdle. |
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All kinds of stupid phone mistakes there.
*World hurdle or chasing for oscar. *Fly doesn't need to improve physically. |
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Hurricane Fly should retain it all being well. He's the best we have seen for a while. Spirit Son the ONLY danger.
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I love Hurricane Fly, but I don't want the Champion Hurdle to become like the World Hurdle where everyone tries to duck one horse, or isn't up to putting up a serious challenge.
What Cheltenham races need are strength in depth, and the brilliance of the Fly will scare off some trainers, and could take the excitement out of the Champion Hurdle. Some brilliant debates on here before this years Champion; some really strong arguments for and against the Fly, Peddlers, Menorah, Binocular, Dunguib etc; whereas (like the World Hurlde and Mares Hurdle) next years Champion already looks very predictable. I really hope that something emerges that will be capable of putting up a proper challenge and make the race exciting, rather than the Fly starting massive odds on. Whether it's Spirit Son, Zarkandar, Oscars Well or Grandouet; I don't know. As for the original title of the thread - I wouldn't be taking sub 2/1 about the Fly now. Comparing VC's 5/4 on the Fly and Hills' 5/4 on Big Bucks I'd take the Big Bucks bet. |
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Does anyone know how Hendersons Prince of Pirates is getting on? Exciting hurdling prospect but has had big injury troubles
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Hurricane Fly isn't nearly as overwhelmingly strong as Big Bucks - I genuinely do think BB is relatively unbeatable and the only thing that will keep him from retiring unbeaten may be that Paul Nicholls carries on running him until he's 40 if he's still enjoying it.
I think the Fly can be taken on though - maybe not immediately mind, but I think it's possible the likes of Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre (if they decide he's too babyish to stick to chasing this year) or Zarkandar could mount a decent challenge next year. And Peddlers Cross didn't do too badly this year, it has to be said... And anyway, chances are he won't even make it due to injury anyway. |
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Hurricane Fly has had some quality opposition to race against Big Bucks hasn't, the staying hurdle division is never properly competitive due to it being the least prestigeous of the 4 divisions.
Peddlers Cross gave him a race in the Champion Hurdle because Fly ran a poor race, never settled as they went too slow and was sweating up before the race. He clearly learnt from that and ran a career best at Punchestown. Also pretty stupid to say "he'll be injured anyway". The reason he got injured twice was because he gives 100% at home in his work and injures himself. So Mullins has made sure he only does slow work at home so he won't get injured. It worked a treat this season. |
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2-1 still a lay cv in my own view
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Sorry, I didn't literally mean I think he'll be injured, I was just making the point that it is very short given his injury history, and that given that the odds aren't going to change until the start of the NH season I intend to at least wait until then to look at it.
I agree about the competition - when I said overwhelmingly strong, I was thinking relative to the competition - not very well phrased I admit. Similarly though, if Hurricane Fly ran a bad race this year whats to say he wouldn't do so again another year? I agree he's the best in his division by some way right now, and he may well be by next march (in fact, probably will be) but I think it's too close to competitive to be taking 2-1 10 months in advance. |
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Yeh,too short at 2-1,and Big Bucks is too short as well,especially with Oscar Whiskey taking him on.
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whats oscar done to suggest he can beat the buckster
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well of course he has to prove he stays 3m,but his form over 2 and half suggests he has the class to compete with him.His connections certainly think he can after speaking with them.
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BB is as we well know nigh on unbeatable, but Oscar Whisky will undoubtedly prove to be Big Buck's biggest challenge imv. Think he's the type who can give him a race. (2m pace, decent turn of foot, every chance of staying 3m) They deliver him on the line before BB can respond he has a chance. A slim one, but he's certainly a better horse than Time For Rupert, Grands Crus and Punchestowns
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yep,without doubt he is a better class of hurdler than those,and if he does stay 3m and connections certainly think he does,than it stands to reason that he is a big threat to BB.
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Given the level of stake required to make a decent return at 2/1 you'd have to be nuts going in at that price., Hopefully lads will do the nrnb in december again to allow for some ap bets. But best morning price might be the way to go. Especially as he won't face the likes of spirit son or zarkander until the day.
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