Cheltenham Festival
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I saw that Laddies had said their turnover for the Festival is down last week.
Think one of the reasons they withdrew from oddschecker was because they went NRNB early on the big 4 races. This means your prices are shorter ultimately and they wouldnt have looked good side by side with those not going NRNB.
Early NRNB is very bad for punters because even though they get their stake back if the horse doesnt make the race, the horse could be in worse for come the race and the ground conditions could be bad for the horse yet the punter is taking shorter prices well in advance of a race allowing bookmakers to squeeze the value out of antepost.
DO NOT think they are doing you a favour with this early offer ... they are doing it to squeeze the value when you are still taking on the disadvantages of backing a horse well in advance of a race when it makes the race and it could be in worse form come the day and drift or the ground play a big part. You get shorter odds backing on the day because you know these factors so why take cr@p odds well in advance when you dont know them?
Think one of the reasons they withdrew from oddschecker was because they went NRNB early on the big 4 races. This means your prices are shorter ultimately and they wouldnt have looked good side by side with those not going NRNB.
Early NRNB is very bad for punters because even though they get their stake back if the horse doesnt make the race, the horse could be in worse for come the race and the ground conditions could be bad for the horse yet the punter is taking shorter prices well in advance of a race allowing bookmakers to squeeze the value out of antepost.
DO NOT think they are doing you a favour with this early offer ... they are doing it to squeeze the value when you are still taking on the disadvantages of backing a horse well in advance of a race when it makes the race and it could be in worse form come the day and drift or the ground play a big part. You get shorter odds backing on the day because you know these factors so why take cr@p odds well in advance when you dont know them?
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Replies: 67
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See what you are saying,but i only did one NRNB with lads,Big Zeb at 4,guess i got lucky!!
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When saying Early NRNB I am talking a month or two in advance not the week before of course when the prices have shortened and most value normally gone anyway.
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I think it depends on your point on view! For me, ive thrown too many ante post tickets away to worry about pinching the odd point or two in price; I want a run for my money so NRMB works for me!
I think it was sporting to offer the concession; ask people who backed Diamond Harry for the Gold Cup, I think they'd disagree with you! |
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I took advantage of Laddies early nrnb wi Zeb at 7/2 & the Commander at 4s. It was the best price int village & nrnb to boot. It's just another option & if the price ain't right nobodys forced to take it anyway.The proverbial win win!(from a value perspective).
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You'll be forced to take it if all bookies do the same and it is all NRNB ... and if this happens the value will disappear and the antepost markets and forum may as well close if that happens.
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It would kill antepost turnover for bookies eventually. The only people gaining are layers on here taking NRNB and hoping to cop the lot laying it back on here if it out or horses in 2 races nothing lost in arbing both nrnb prices onto here.
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What's killing ante post punting (at Cheltenham) is the new dilluted festival, fantastic as it is the additional 9 races (from original 18) has created a number of options for trainers so virtually every horses carries multiple entries, in the good old days a 2m chaser would go for the QM, these days if stamina isn't an issue they'll hold a Ryanair entry as well.
I stopped punting AP years ago, I wouldn't be surprised if most regular punters kept their powder dry until the, when (as the OP says above) you could get a bigger price anyway |
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You also dont know the opposition backing well in advance which you do know on the day so why take shorter prices NRNB well in advance when a hotpot may make the race and make your price look silly come the day.
Tell you what why not just place the bet then ask for your money back the same day if you dont want risk but dont give me sh1t odds for that risk which is still there if my horse makes the race. |
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Very true horse9, the Ryanair and the new 2m4f race should be scratched! Connections have no right to win a Festival race, if your horse isn't quick enough for two miles and doesn't quite stay three, then tough!!
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Irrelevant to thread title tbh.
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Exactly dwm, there are other festivals with race distances to suit, the biggest hurdle race at Aintree is 2m 4f for instance.
Many horses had 3 entries for Cheltenham, Captain Chris is still in the Jewson and Arkle, same for Bensalem, both favs for two different races, punters don't have a hope, so until you see the horses in the parade ring you can't have a bet IMO |
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Yeah well you're so boring we're trying to liven it up a bit!
You're right when you say it's here to stay, but put up and shut up, nothing you can do about it! |
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Start a different thread re the Jewson, totally different issue, agree it makes the novice races very difficult now.
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someone came on here spouting that Master Minded was great value at 2/1 NRNB ages ago,so that proves you are right Eric,but at the same time Big Zeb was 4/1 so that gives you the other side.
i think basically you are correct,but as always their are exceptions. |
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ive always said bookies should offer 2 set of prices on ante post, for example say 2,000 guineas one set of prices all in frankel 6/4 and another set with frankel say 4/7 with a run, punters then get a choice
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I'm sure a lot of punters will see it how the bookies want them to ... that this is a great deal when it very most definitely isnt. Trading antepost value in to get NRNB is just a way of accepting that bookies are going to shaft you in the long term by taking the value away and giving you virtually day of race prices but without the drastic advantages you normally get backing in day of race NRNB markets.
If you back a horse today for a race taking place today, you know the ground, you know the quality of opposition, you know the current form of your horse ... so you get no value advantage in the price you are given. Lets not allow the bookies to take away your value when you DONT KNOW these factors well in advance of the race. A week or so before fine have NRNBs on with them, but any earlier NRNB markets are there to shaft you value-wise. |
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That already exists, it is called day of race market or even now taking your price nrnb the week or so before.
Taking NRNB any earlier than that will kill antepost eventually. |
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I can see what you are saying eric but I think there are times when it is still worthwhile. I have a few quid ew on Tidal Bay at 50s from around 2 months ago for example. I'm not saying he'll win but I wouldn't mind having a few quid more on at 50s if I could.
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the bookies will do whatever is best for business....Ladbrokes came off Oddschecker cos they wanted to get traffic direct to their site...some best i would rather take NRNB and a shorter price in December/January, other best i would rather the longer price...at least you have the option which we never used to have.....and what people never mention is that (say) if 2 horses dominate an ante-post market and one drops out, they say the bookies have cleaned up on those losing bets but they forget that people backing the other horse have got a bigger orice than it is now. Ante-post works fine if you're a good judge and have discipline.
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bets not best
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God you do talk some shyte,Eric.
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buddeliea; I thought Master Minded was good value when Ladbrokes were offering 5/2 NRMB after he won the Tingle Creek, at Cheltenham, when Hills and Coral were offering 2/1 and 7/4 respectively, with ante post rules applied!
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they went NRNB early on the big 4 races. This means your prices are shorter ultimately and they wouldnt have looked good side by side with those not going NRNB.
Laddies were outright best price on a few in Dec (eg Peddlars Cross, Big Bucks etc) - the takers of NRNB on these must have had value in them, if only compared to other books! |
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At the end of the day people you will get what you deserve ... I am just trying to warn you what that will eventually be if you take the carrot... or maybe they want to give you more money long term as you seem to believe? Do you believe in fairies or the attempt to remove value from antepost?
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eric_morris Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
At the end of the day people you will get what you deserve ... I am just trying to warn you what that will eventually be if you take the carrot... or maybe they want to give you more money long term as you seem to believe? Do you believe in fairies or the attempt to remove value from antepost? What I believe is that bookmaking is a competitive business and that most bookmakers offer something different to give themselves an edge against the market. This is what Lads did IMO. You are entitled to your conspiracy theories. The majority of us will just bet where the best price and terms can be found and not get too wound up about it. |
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It isnt a conspiracy theory .. yes you wont get wound up about it because most dont see beyond next week which is why I am pointing out you will get what you deserve with this if you take NRNB prices any earlier than a week or so before the Festival. It isnt a bank of bets you are building up for yourself then, it is a bank you are building up for your bookie to have as there will be no value in it when all bookies follow suit ... wisen up imo.
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you're talking bollox, mate
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For instance, i know two people who were really impressed by Grands Crus back in November and thought he was the most likely danger to Big Buck's in the staying division, but at that stage they were wary of backing him ante-post because the trainer was stilkl going on about it needing winter ground and saying not certain to be aimed at World Hurdle. Ladbrokes when 16/1 NRNB, which was shorter than the 20s available elsewhere but gave them the security that they would at least get a run for their money. They prob wouldnt be on him at big prices if it wasnt for that NRNB option in December.
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Great coming from you duncan idontknow. They are presumably doing this for charitable causes to the public and not with long term profits in mind. The only way to increase profits is to remove the value you are getting. You may have noticed betting shop returns being crucified over the last few years well they would like you the antepost punter to also be under their grip and remove any value you have also. Now fook off and read your fairy stories duncan idontknow.
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Grand Crus will make the race, they lost 4 points. Add up all the 4 points, not many dont make the gig now they are all prepared to make the meeting. The occasional none runner you have is insignificant compared to losing 20% on every bet you make ... or more which it definitely would be if they got their way on this.
This meeting I only have 5% none runners I would lose fortunes taking NRNB sh1t prices long before the race as would everyone you cluless t1t. The main disadvantages are still there also |
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dont know the opposition, ground, your horses form well before the race yet still giving 20% or more away.
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I've done over £10K in NRNB over the last couple of weeks and I'm the right side of the price on all of them...
In the Ryanair I have the following horses 1/4 odds first 3! (will only be about 6 runners): Poquelin 7/2 Kalahari King 8/1 Albertas Run 12/1 J Y Vole 14/1 Gauvain 16/1 Think NRNB makes sense.... |
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If you could be @rsed reading the thread I said anything NRNB from a week or so before the races is ok as the value on the Graded races is gone anyway .. or it is the handicaps quoted late. Your value is virtually day of race you didnt get say 6s Poquelin from longer ago without NRNB you have had to stake nearly twice as much to win the same amount Nrnb hence waiting for nrnb has given you sh1t value by comparison.
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The bookies are pushing nrnb further back in time so they can give you a sh1tty 7/2 Poquelin NRNB instead of 6/1 without NRNB when they nearly always make the race anyway. As I say wisen up dont listen to d1mwits like duncan idontknow.
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Early NRNB prices are a fantastic concession for punters.To suggest otherwise is ludicrous.The only major firm to give this concession months in advance were Ladbrokes(originally on the 4 Championship races I believe).
This coincided with their trading decision to remove their prices from the Oddschecker site.IMO the concession was introduced to encourage people to view the site who would otherwise have ignored it. Of course there are horses whose price say 8 weeks ago was smaller than it is now (Masterminded is the obvious example).However the number of horses whose price has shrunk,(Kauto,Denman,Long Run,Menorah,Mille Chief,Grand Cru etc) is far greater.Throw in the number of horses who will not be racing (Diamond Harry,Tranquil Sea etc) and I fail to see the problem. |
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You fail full stop then bud if you dont understand. I can only assume your turnover of bets is low or you are new to this or you are a bookie. Like Clarky it is unlikely you read the whole thread to get the point before commenting perhaps.
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hemsby do you work for a bookie, say Laddies?
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I used to work in the bookmaking industry about 9 years ago.
I did read the thread and failed to agree with virtually everything you said. Ladbrokes were not worst priced every horse during this concession.I personally have backed Denman @ 8/1 and Big Zeb @ 7/2 with them NRNB.They were industry top price on these 2 horses at the time I struck the bets. |