Cheltenham Festival
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Early NRNB doesnt work
Early NRNB doesnt work
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Do you think they are looking to give you better value or worse value by moving NRNB longer before the day cutting prices earlier?
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I have an opposite story to you ... in all the years I have backed antepost I have never backed a lower proportion of my horses with Laddies at Chelts than this season and I have sampled prices across several graded races to determine this so it is an immensely better indicator than your couple of feeble examples. They are averaging lower prices by offering NRNB earlier ... Binocular 5/2 you can always give opposite isolated examples but I know where I am getting the best value and it has not been with them this Chelts.
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Let me rephrase the question to you. Is taking shorter prices NRNB for longer in the run up to a race better for the bookie or the punter?
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Last post on the subject.
They are not bothered whether they are offering better or worse value for the punter.The reason they went NRNB early on the Championship races,as stated earlier,was to entice you into visiting their site.FWIW the reduction in price of some of the horses which followed still actually left them best industry price on certain runners. In answer to the question "Is taking shorter prices NRNB for longer in the run up to a race better for the bookie or the punter?" the answer is obvious ........punter. As punters we have a choice ie whether to bet or not bet.We can study a particular race and decide if taking a smaller price NRNB is a better or worse option.For example PW in his antepost column selected Spirit River at 33/1 for the World Hurdle just before he ran in the Cleeve Hurdle.Two scenarios were likely here,either he ran well (in which case his price for the World Hurdle would be slashed and he would be confirmed for the race) or he would run poorly and wouldn't be aimed at the race(far more likely given his price on the day).In this instance what is the more sensible option,33/1 all in or say 25/1 NRNB? The point is as punters we have a choice.This year we have found ourselves in the perfect position of having 1 bookie NRNB and most all in run or not.You have to use your skill as a punter to decide what option is best. One final point.With the advent of the new Jewson chase we now have novice chases over 2/2.5 and 3 miles.If I wanted to back a horse whose target was unsure , eg Captain Chris Arkle/Jewson I would be more than happy to take a smaller price NRNB. Unlike most on here,I actually enjoy your contributions.You remind me of Adrian Durham on Talksport radio......Loud,insulting,contraversial,wrong most of the time although occassionally the odd insightful comment.He has the excuse that he is encouraging phone calls and texts to generate money for his employer.You no doubt enjoy the banter and winding people up. Good luck over Cheltenham EM,lets hope Captain Chris runs in the Arkle and you don't regret not having NRNB insurance [;)] |
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My sh1tty 7/2 on Poquelin is going to look pretty good when he goes off 15/8 fav on the day....
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ive been in touch with few bookies today and theyre adamant that rule 4 also applies at the moment on these nrnb
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Were you on Binocular YBM???
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Paddy Power and Stan James are REFUNDING ALL BETS on Binocular however those who placed their bets with Laddies before they went NRNB will LOSE THEIR MONEY. Mmmmm.....
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Already them going NRNB very early means some of their customers will lose cash with them BUT NOT with 2 of their biggest competitors.
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You really are clueless, eric. I'll not trouble you again.
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Meaningful comment ... NOT. You cant argue with my logic. Do the maths , if your mate lost 4 points on Grands Crus that is more than he would have returned on Binocular for a level stake. Punters are now losing money with Laddies because of this offer wheras they are being refunded by Paddy Power and Stan James.
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Sorry eric you are talking shyte. AP NRNB does have it's advantages.
I backed Saldatino and Walkon at 33/1 before they ran in the Totesport for the Champion Hurdle. If one of them had won well off a high weight they would have gone for the CH and been much shorter, if they had not done that they were never gonna show up in the race. I was on a bet to nothing on both. I appreciate it didn't come off but I'm getting my money back and had the chance of a value bet. There were only two outcomes I could see in the above example. I either had a great value bet after the race or I would get my stake back. Now I appreciate it didn't come off but the early NRNB gave me the chance of that free bet at could have been big odds. Tidal Bay was best priced 50/1 with Laddies when I backed him for the GC ew and with Laddies and they were also nrnb. Now why on earth is that possibly bad for me the punter? I was gonna back him anyway and now I'm nrnb and best odds too. Early NRNB is great for us punters because it gives us more choice. We can still bet at a better price with others if we choose to but if you are having a speculative bet on a horse that may not run then the Laddies offer is perfect. Dunguib was also best priced 14/1 with them when I backed him and they were the only ones going NRNB, again I was going to back him anyway so why not take the best option for me and back him nrnb. There is no point discussing your opinions on whether my bets are any good or not. We are discussing the merits of their nrnb offer. For me this offer made perfect sense in what I was going to back and therefore Ladbrokes got my business. In fact I opened an account with them specifically because of the offer. That is why bookies make concessions like the one laddies did, to try and attract more customers. |
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Ok you go with it and a few years down the line you will see I was right when the value is gone and antepost is day of race prices but you wont have the advantages of knowing the opposition, ground and form of your horse on the day to compensate for the dire prices.
Been doing this a long time now and this one is obvious to me. Good luck. |
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I've saved a fortune thanks to Ladbrokes NRNB on Bino. So thank you.
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Whatever. Bookies compete with each other for our business and there will always be different concessions from different bookmakers.
I highlight a couple or reasons as to why your arguement is not valid and you instantly switch to a different angle and talk of the future. All through this thread you have highlighted that the offer is stupid right now as well as talking about what may happen going forward. Now you only want to worry about a few years down the line because I've suggested right now it is a decent offer and given example. I don't know what is going to happen in the future and neither do you. For the most part horses not making the race is the reason why bookies are keen to take our antepost money. Fancied horses like Diamond Harry, Riverside Theatre, Tranquil Sea etc will all have made the bookies decent moeny and it is examples like those that are the reasons why not all bookies will go AP nrnb like laddies have gone in the future. It takes all the free money away from runners such as those. Now the Binocular example is very rare and the whole thing stinks to high heaven and because of that I think that is why the bookies are keen to distance themselves from the whole debacle. If they were seen to make money from this it would be bad for them and the sport, what they have done isn't necessarily about being nice to the punter. It's more to do with protecting their image. All I know for sure is that right now I'll take the best value at the best terms available with whoever that may be. If that is Laddies nrnb then great! It's nice to have the choice! |
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your exactly right cruise d. When Eric Morris started this thread I bet he didn;t think for one minute that a high profile horse would miss chelenham. The NRNB has saved an awful lot of money for punters.
The bloke is a re-tard. |
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I haven't had a single antepost with Ladbrokes on Cheltenham this year which perhaps says something about the perceived value (espeically as I'm the biggets arber in the world according to Eric
 )NRNB is never going to come in on the majority of antepost betting, Ladbrokes just did the big 4 Cheltenham races because they know 95% what the runners are going to be. They will never do it for the classics etc. And even if every bookie offers nrnb on every antepost race (which I reiterate will never happen) the amount of competition will still ensure that eventually the prices will be back where they should be anyway. |
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NRNB worked a treat this morning when it was clear binocular was Non Runner
Bet the books are really glad they are offering NRNB best price Guaranteed No rule 4 deduction. |
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Think they went NRNB for a couple of reasons
1. They did it when the weather was at its absolute worst, hoping maybe to drum up a bit of business and keep the cashflow ticking over, as there are very few credit accounts around nowdays they now get the money up front. 2. They realise quite a few of the population are lazy and if they do get some accounts out of the matter then in the Long run it will do them no harm, they can always weed out any business that isnt to their liking these days |
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they are definitley thinking long term for sure. Loads of punters will now have money sitting in their laddies accounts, and be wondering what to do with it. Laddies know the probability is them punters will still bet with it, and likely lose it. That's what they are hoping for.
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This early NRNB concession has got Laddies out of paying a fortune in refunds on Binocular as instead of refunding the whole last 12 months on him like the others they will only be refunding the last 3 months worth since they went nrnb on 28th November (other than Carols who wont be getting much business this Chelts now).
They are really looking after you there.  |
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So you have given up on your arguement and changing the subject now then?
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No argument I'm right I see the future better than you.
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Eric = Mystic Meg - always wondered what she got up to after she stopped doing the National Lottery
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Mystic Meg my @rse.
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mystic mug
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Couldn't disagree with the OP more - if you are selective then early NRNB offers a great opportunity to snatch some value.
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eric you don't know what you are talking about. NRNB great concession, and lads lay a bet unlike a lot of the rest. Backing horses that may not run in the race is a great opportunity.
For example 1st dec 2010. Long run disappointed some in pp chase, but still being aimed at king george. If it flopped in KG would run in ryan air or handicap at cheltenham. Now ladbrokes were 25/1 nrnb other books 33-1 Ante Post. At that stage prob 20% likely to run in gold cup, 80% ryanair. Invested 2k ew at 25's on the 20% chance(couldn't run in gold cup at bigger odds because would run in a different race). which price would you take? 25'swhere you get your money back or 33's where only 20% chance of running, 80% chance of doing your money. Enough said, roll on Cheltenham |