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Champion Hurdle rationale - LISTEN!

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Replies: 59
By:
buddeliea
When: 11 Mar 11 18:23
Oh its a tough race to call Harchie.
My gut feeling is that PC will prove to be too tough to pass.Hes a real racing lover who never stops finding for his jockey.He has speed,and stays well,he can quicken and quicken again,but most of all he just loves what he does it seems,and just dont want to lose.
If anything can get past him fair enough,they will have to be bl00dy good if they do though.
Think HF and Bino will have their pace blunted before the last,and expect Oscar Whiskey and Menorah to fight it out with PC up the hill,with PC winning.Just think it will be a stayer rather than a speedier 2 miler that prevails in what i think will be a real test.
But then again...........!!  Grin
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Mar 11 18:46
You will see how stupid a post it was on Tuesday, Twonky.
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 18:57
Very difficult to call and I'm just fishing for an angle like everyone else. I'm trying not to be biased but I think there's a chance of getting the big four beaten, though as I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't want to lay 1/2. This watering business concerns me too as my 'plans' were based around a quick surface and my duo both really appreciating the ground more than most in the race. In a nutshell, on quicker ground, I think Overturn has a chance (if ridden properly) of giving them the slip, and I can't help but think Clerk's Choice is a few pounds better than his Bula form as he got there far too soon. If we have 'soft' in the ground description on Tuesday then my optimism will wane but after being with the pair for so long, I won't desert them now. I know they've a lot to do on the book but it's all about the inferior horses equalising the score with the perceived superior ones, and making the most of tactics & conditions - more of a level playing field. If the ground's good, I'll be very confident of both of these rags running screamers!
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Mar 11 19:03
I do understand you're thoughts Harchi, but they are misplaced here.
Outsiders are worth backing when the market leaders have holes in them, not this race.
Outsiders sometimes pull it off when the number of market leaders is limited, not this race.
Outsiders are worth backing when the going or distance are extremes and where form doesn't easily translate, not this race.
Basically you should save you're money for the right time and the right place and that is definitely not this race.
By:
buddeliea
When: 11 Mar 11 19:06
To be fair to you Harchie,if the ground IS good,Clerks choice will run his race for sure,whether he is good enough is a big doubt,but at the odds you make a fair point.
Overturn looks to me that he is there for PC,and to be fair to the owner thats quiet understandable,but anyway its hard to see him reversing with Binocular.
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 19:11
I'm guessing that most of you think 1/2 about the big four is outstanding? Surely some big hitters will realise the arithmetic. It's more than a fair price wouldn't you say?
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Mar 11 19:14
The big 'four'?

Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Dunguib, Menorah, Peddler's Cross and Oscar Whisky. Isn't that six?
By:
zilzal1
When: 11 Mar 11 19:16
Brig, you;d want some rain for Dunguib surely????
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 19:22
Brigust - the big four as in the leading quartet in the betting, Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Menorah & Peddlers Cross. I desperately want good ground and for Thousand Stars, not to be pressing Overturn - that will make it really interesting Happy
By:
Pleasegivemeanailedontip
When: 11 Mar 11 19:33
Think most likely ground will be good to soft/good in places so I can't think of a good reason NOT to take the form straight from last years CH and Supreme. That puts Binocular and Menorah in the driving seat but they're both too short.
If I had the balls I would leave the race well alone but I might go with that and twist forecast them.
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Mar 11 19:47
Not at all Zilzal. I have no problem with the going at all. I think he won the heavy ground races in spite of the ground.
He has a lot of pace plus stamina. The trainer's plan has always been to avoid the heavy ground and run him in the spring a fresh horse. The ground won't be fast and I cannot see anyone being inconvenienced by the ground. Let the best horse win.
By:
Splicer Keats
When: 11 Mar 11 19:59
OP bit harsh on Binocular, has done little wrong imo, 5 yo dont win CHs so the year before last is forgiven, its not like he wasnt close is it, biggest lay for me is HF in the place market, if he was as good as some people would have us believe, Solwhit would be in the field to take the rather handsome place money, agreed looks a great race this year, but proven form in the shape of Binocular will do for me.
ps
Clerks cant win, 5yos have a horrendous record.
By:
buddeliea
When: 11 Mar 11 20:10
Actually 5 yr olds have filled quiet a few places since Katchit won
By:
Splicer Keats
When: 11 Mar 11 20:17
I actually backed Katchit for a place on the grounds of loving cheltenham and being a tenacious little bugger, got paid at decent odds, but most judges would agree it was a poor CH that year, would still generally avoid the 5 yo's.
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 20:19
Splicer Keats - if the conditions & tactics are right and the opposition have holes in them, then 5yo's can win! I know it was a long time back to See You Then, when the average (even at his best) Katchit won a few years ago, but in reality, there haven't been that many short-priced 5yo's competing from what I can remember. Kribensis & Detroit City being notable ones. As for Binocular, he's become an almost schizophrenic performer in that we never know which one will turn up! A bit like James Wade in the PDC. I do think a trainer as knowledgeable as Henderson will have him right on the day but in the aftermath of last year's Champion Hurdle, after initially being really impressed (like everyone else) I have done some nit-picking with him. He was really good at Kempton and as I mentioned earlier, if there was a Scoop6 ticket rolling onto one in the race, he'd just about (by default) be my selection. I don't think I've been too harsh on him but I'm not convinced he's the horse that many, including McCoy, believe he is. I could easily be wrong (and will be if he wins it again) and I always seem to be the last one to recognise a truly brilliant horse as I take some convincing. Kauto Star & Denman were in my opinion PREMATURELY hyped as the real deal and although I've no doubts now, I remember all the other average performers that pundits have gone overboard about.
By:
Splicer Keats
When: 11 Mar 11 20:23
Spoke to richie killoran yesterday and he reckons Binoculars going up the gallops like concord, i think we see the real deal on tuesday, gl with whichever you bet.
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Mar 11 20:26
In NH's defence I think it took him awhile to get to the bottom of what Binocular wants. Now he knows he can target his races accurately. Sometimes tis trial and error. Both Hobbs and McCain have decided fewer is better for their runners maybe next season will be different. Same with Dunguib. PF has decided to swerve the bad  ground because he thinks the spring ground will suit better, I hope he is right.
By:
the lay preacher
When: 12 Mar 11 00:18
penzance - meant to say fourth festival win in a row. sorry.
By:
gart
When: 13 Mar 11 09:29
harchy - gold star, in advance. imo.
By:
Patented
When: 15 Mar 11 02:58
harchy - neither will be within an asses roar of Hurricane Fly come the race tomorrow
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