Champion Hurdle rationale - LISTEN!

best of luck, posting one's  strong views on here deserves a reward.

don't be disappointed when Menorah wins, he will turn out to be one of the best horses of this generation.

Thanks Irish Guy, and as I've mentioned, it's not something I've done on here much though I do like Bouggler & What A Friend at a massive prices as well. I don't think anyone can be too critical of anyone else putting up rank outsiders as selections so I'm on relatively safe territory.
Gash Boy - even if Menorah wins, I'll be astonished if he will ever be hailed as a great.

why couldn't he be a great? you have no idea how good he could be!

Good post. Will be very interesting to see CC off another blistering gallop.

Thousand Stars?

Gash - as I've mentioned, he's continued to surprise me but he has an admirable attitude and appetite for a battle that maybe no other in the race could match. He just keeps pulling out more doesn't he? As I mentioned, some fool could put up something really silly like 85 I/R when he's first off the bridle, but nothing else in the race can match him for bottle. I was very impressed with his Bula win and he showed he has developed a turn of foot too. As I also said, he's bombproof, but I can't help but think he is far from brilliant. Whatever happens, he will NOT win in the style that Binocular did last year but I can certainly see him grinding out a gritty performance.

Wicked - there is every chance there won't be that blistering gallop you'd usually associate with a Champion Hurdle. There's nothing to bother Overturn is there?

Being a great you will be judged by the races you win and the opposition you faced in those races. I tis perfectly possible he wins the Champion, then if taking to fences has to be a ridiculous price for the Arkle next year, then god knows... The manner of his racing style is irrelevant. Hardy Eustace was never flashy but he is a great!

Gash - touche! You're so right about that. A great doesn't need to be flashy - was See More Business? He certainly wasn't but he definitely was a great!

Is there any chance that Ruby rides Dunguib?
Philip Fenton would have to be mad no to ask him assuming that Townend keeps the ride on Hurricane Fly and Katie isn't kicked off Thousand Stars.

I reckon there will be a strong pace with Overturn and Thousand Stars. Magure and Mullins will both want good gallops and will ensure it imo.

McCain*

Tavaris - I'm sorry I missed your horse (Thousand Stars) but he has an absolute mountain to climb for me. He's totally exposed and the only thing in his favour is that he's a previous Festival winner over C&D which although invaluable, still leaves him with a hell of a lot to do to reach the frame! He'd be far better off carrying top-weight in the County Hurdle and although the ground is in its favour he will need a miracle as I see it. A definite place lay at around 7/1! I know I sound like Money Tree but I couldn't back him at 25/1 for t he frame!

Nice to see someone taking the time to analyze the race rather than just saying this or that will win with no foundation to it.

Can't say I agree with everything said but then if we all agreed with each other there would be no need for a forum.

Binocular You're more than a bit off the mark with him. 4 or 5 days prior to the Supreme Hurdle Nicky Henderson thought Binocular, who was only a 4 year old at the time, was going to miss Cheltenham and go to Aintree. Nicky desperately wanted to run him in the Triumph Hurdle not the Supreme but the short priced fav and would be good thing for that race Franchoek Ap McCoy also belonged to JP McManus so his request was refused.

Binocular had been taken out of the betting for the Supreme and Nicky in an interview looked really pi$$ed off when asked where he would run. "He may be more of an Aintree type" NEXT QUESTION. What happened during those very important 6 days leading up to the race when Nicky thought the horse was going to Aintree remain behind closed doors. They say Binocular missed a very important gallop but that aside it was clear which horse they thought was the best hurdler after the race if not before. Captain Cee Bee went chasing and Binocular was sent in pursuit of the Champion Hurdle crown.

For almost the entire season all you read when Binocular was mentioned was "He won't get up the hill" To this day AP McCoy blames himself for not going against instructions. The idea was to hold him up and conserve energy so he would get up the hill butthat proved to be his downfall. AP was going best of all at the top of the hill but hung onto him coming down the hill. Had he said stuff the hill and kicked sooner the result without a shadow of a doubt would have been very different. Binocular to everyone's surprise found the hill no problem but his tempo had gone going to the last diue to AP restraining him but he was gaining on the front 2 when they hit the rising ground.

With that info up there sleeve a new plan was hatched to go for home as soon as the jumped the 3rd last which saw Binocular win with ease.

It wasn't a case of the race falling into his hands it was a case of AP taking the race by the scruff of the neck at a time when Binocular is always at his strongest in his races. That's normally just after the 3rd last as we saw in the Champion Hurdle and against Overturn and Celestial Halo at Ascot.


The problem this year is it's a better race or appears to be. Every trainer in the race know what to expect from Binocular and they will be all thinking up plans on the best way to beat him.

That may be a lot more difficult than some people think. When Binocular changes into top gear at the top of the hill that's when the men will be separated from the boys.

Peddler's Cross: His best and only chance of beating Binocular is to strike before he does. He has plenty of pace but like Binoclar he's not known fro his instant acceleration. He's fast he stays further and acts on the course if he hits the front before the 3rd last he could make Binocular work a bit too hard between the 3rd last and last. If that happens Binocular and others come to challenge Binocular is unlikely to come out on top on the run to the line. Binocular doesn't have the dogged determination the likes of Menorah has e.g

However I have my doubts if Peddler's Cross will be good enough but he could play a big part in the downfall of Binocular and set the race up for something else.

Menorah: What's not to like about this horse? He's already conquered the course and seems to love it. The main worry about him is in both the Supreme and International he was the first to be scrubbed along. Yes he won both races but you wouldn't want to be scrubbing any horse along between 2 out and 3 out in the Champion Hurdle. Out battling GMOOH and catching up with Cue Card simply isn't the same as trying to catch Binocular when AP says go. If he has to be chased alongto get into contention that could cost him 3 or 4 lengths and in a Champion Hurdle tat is lot to tray and make up against these horses. Of course if he can get to them before the last and they are all off the bridle  I can't see anything out battling him. That is one big if though.

Dunquib: He's very hard to work out. Should have won the Supreme over the top against Hurricane Fly. Jumped better than ever on his return, travels better than any horse in training and that could prove to be a huge plus here. No surprise to me if he won , no surprise if he got beaten along way. His tactic are simple stay in cruise control and hope he's still cruising at the last. Be a much bigger danger will a real jockey on board.

Oscar Whisky: Nicky Henderson could  care less if he upset Binocular and there is no way of telling how much he has improved. He shouldn't be good enough on all known form but then again apart from running in the Supreme as a mere bay he's never really been tested. Again no shock if he won but you can't back them all.

Khyber Kim. Can't possibly beat Binocular unless the latter has run himelf into the ground trying to catch Peddlers but there are much better horses to contend with this year. No better than an ew chance if that.

Overturn. I can only think Nicky Henderson had word with Donal McCain before taking Zaynar out and new he would run. Both horses need a pacemaker and that is all he is. Overtrun is a classic example of the difference between a good handicapper and a Champion Hurdle horse. Menorah fans should take note because that could be the case with him.

Hurricane Fly last but not least. Where Binocular goes he goes but he will have to settle and I would much prefer if Ruby rode him for that reason. If he can and he has enough speed to follow Binocular through at the top of the hill with out coming off the bridle whatever you do stay away from the lay button. Without a shadow of a doubt he has by far the best turn of foot in the race. Menorah looked faster than he is due to Cue Card stopping but this fellow explodes when given the office.

It's all down to how each individual handles the expected injection of pace at the top of the hill. It will be there the race is won and lost.

Rondetto, if you look at the CH thread you will see this race has been analysed to death. All of the above has been written before, ten fold. And that was before each horse had run and when the odds were better and the runners unknown.
The race is on Tuesday ffs.

Apart from that it is good to see others taking the time to put their thoughts down, right or wrong.
Me, I always seperate the 'class' from the 'workers'. In my opinion the winner comes from Binocular, Hurricane Fly and Dunguib, the 'class' horses.

Harchi, for a 'Norton's Coin' to win you require a poor set of runners running on ground they don't like over a distance they may not stay. This race is not that race.

You shout at us to listen,and then write the biggest essay in history,and come up with Overturn and Clerks Choice!!

Good luck!!

great initial post harch, thanks for that. i am of the opinion that peddlers will grind out a win after taking over from a furious pace from overturn on the home turn. i actually make thousand stars the most interesting outsider. and binocular for me is a huge lay. but what a fascinating race.

wrong about binocular harchibaldy he should be going for his fourth champion hurdle in a row .and the reason is not complicated the ground.
last year was his first on good /good to soft ground.
the first year there was a deluge before racing and the following year they over watered to such an extent that despite going reports the ground was soft on the first day.
this horse needs goodish ground its that simple.

Excellent post Harchibaldy and an equally good response form you Rondetto. Both informative and nice to see such in depth thoughts from each of you.
Personally iam a big fan of Peddlars Cross and have been with him from the start of the season. Think he can be like Hardy Eustace and Istabraq stepping back from the Sun Alliance hurdle and i do think he has enough pace.

the lay preacher
How can Binocular be going for his 4th Champion Hdle in a row?
he's only ran in 2.

both of the large posts on this thread have omitted,what for me,is by far and away the most likely winner if the winner is outside of the top 4....thousand stars. Hasn't stopped improving since he joined wpm as ordinary h'capper,impressive winner of county hdl,only beaten 2 lengths by hurricane and solwit in punchestown after it and again ran a cracker fto this year behind those 2 when having to do all the donkey work.  wherever the hurricane finishes(i think he will win) thousand stars will be very close to him.serious ew chance.

Beware Thousand Star backers The Couch has tipped this 1 up in his racing post Cheltenham clown fest tip party.

Stranger things have happened 'firstimevisor'. However you overlooked the fact that Solwhit has beaten Thousand stars in each race and would not be considered a place prospect in this.
Selective form lines can be misleading. But there you go.

solwit was antepost fav for last years ch for months beforehand,was taken out 2 weeks before as scoped badly and then reinstated with a health warning. He went off at a big price and ran poorly.With hindsight he shouldnt have been put back in the race.
This was solwit's only poor run in 2 years.He is the most consistent 2m hurdler around winning 6 grade 1s and 2nd to hurricane in 4 more.The only reason he was being aimed at the world hurdle this year was coz connections felt there was little point in taking on hf again.If he was 100% sound and running in the ch he would have every chance w/o hf.
The form lines of binocular,peddlars and menorah(I'm a fan of all 3)are far more suspect than the form of hf,solwit and thousand stars

harchi,great minds think alike,i also fancy WHAT A FRIEND to surprise a few in the gold cup

Firstimevisor I think you will find he shared the head of the market with Zaynar and Go Native ffs. Tells you everything.
And that was because he beat Muirhead, Sublimity and Donna's Palm. He was beaten by Go Native in the Fighting Fifth.

Of course you may think any of the above would be placed in this year's race, I don't know.

That so many people have tipped up so many different horses shows that Cheltenham is very competitive. An interesting arguement although why Overturn will be able to beat Binocular let alone any of the front ranked horses isn't entirely clear, he could well lead but to me he has had too many races, doesnt have the class and was hammered last time out by an outsider for the CH. That the ground will be better will suit a number of horses with more speed than him. Good luck to you though Cheltenham has known many a big priced winner in its time.

I had backed Overturn for the CH prior to his poor run. My view is that he's better than that and decent ground will ensure he's a different horse on the day.  Is he a pacemaker for Peddlars ? Probably, but a decent one who's not without his chance.  I don't believe Peddlars can win in a sprint finish, the pace needs to come from somewhere and I believe it will be Peddlars and Overturn all the way until the top of the hill.  After that it's anyones guess. At the price i'm willing to think to think that Hurricane Fly just won't perform on the course.  Binocular may well be there, but he's a bit of a weirdo, so at the price i'm willing to think that last year was his only year and he's not going to be a multiple winner. Menorah surely has everything, unless Peddlars and Overturn have drawn the sting from him.  Dunguib is interesting if his jumping is up to scratch.  His high cruising speed may mean that he enjoys the race and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him involved at the finish.  Clerks Choice needs to improve 10lb IMO, but again I wouldn't be surprised if he's battling for a place if the main horses don't perform (unlikely that they all won't perform though). Oscar Whisky was behind Menorah in last years Supreme and I hope he takes his chance here rather than in the World Hurdle as I think he has a chance of winning this if Peddlars and Overturn go all out to stretch the stamina.

Top of the hill

Overturn - ridden
Peddlars Cross - comfortable

5l to Oscar Whisky and Dunguib

5l to the rest (tired)

At the last

Peddlars Cross, 1l to Dunguib, 3l to Oscar Whisky
Overturn finished.

Up the hill

Peddlars one pace, Dunguib staying on, Oscar Whisky running on strongly

At the line
1. Oscar Whisky by a length
2. Dunguib by 2l (caught in the last 15 yards)
3. Peddlars Cross (massive effort but outgeared)

5-10 lengths back to :

4. Binocular (valiant champions battle, but never really in contention)
5. Clerks Choice (never quite there)
6. Menorah (tired)
7. Overturn (exhausted and out like a light)
8. Thousand Stars (outclassed)
9. Hurricane Fly (never going)

Bloody hell i'd not even thought of Oscar Whisky.  I'd better get on !

Some people clearly have far too much time on their hands!!

Binocular wins btw [;)]

Lol,

I'm on my annual Cheltenham holiday from today !

Budd-Liar - rub a couple of brain cells together will you! If you disagree so strongly with my comments, then correct me with your views. Do you think after all the reasoning that I'm banking on Clerk's Choice & Overturn fighting out a finish? I'm highlighting possible flaws in the main contenders and looking for reasons why they won't win. As obvious as it sounds, there'll only be ONE winner and connections of (virtually all) the vanquished will be looking for excuses - I'm trying to anticipate them, and it's possible that Henderson, Mullins, Hobbs & McCain will ALL be scratching their heads in four days time - at least three of them will be bitterly disappointed, and giving their theories as to why their chargers haven't performed to their best. Just in case there's a shock result (like dozens of other Championship races at the Festival I've witnessed) I want to be on. I'm as aware as anyone that they can't win on the form book but I'm trying to envisage how the race might pan out. Thousand Stars could be the fly in the ointment and spoil my version of events as I'm uncertain how he will be ridden. There must be people on this forum that are in the know as to whether he & Overturn are running on their merits or are being employed as pacemakers. I think it would be a travesty to sacrifice Overturn to such a role and I hope Thousand Stars isn't there as a 'Golden Freeze' to be a spoiler.
PS - I think I made a valid point in nominating Menorah as my certainty to run his race (with a free £1M place bet) but that doesn't mean I think he will win - I'm not that dogmatic about any of the main protagonists and that's why I've sought value elsewhere. I really haven't got a clue who will win and if that hypothetical £1M bet was win only, it would be between Binocular & Hurricane Fly for me, with a slight preference for the former with the experience of three Festivals behind him.

For all I've written about the Champion Hurdle and the possible flaws in the big four protagonists, backing them all (with the correct figures) works out at approximately 1/2 - for big odds-on backers that seems to be fair value to me and I certainly wouldn't lay it!

Peddlers Cross is so big a price because of the trainer's name. If it was Nichols or Henderson, it would be half the price.

henderson is **** scared of Peddlers Cross. McCain knows what he will do, send Overturn off in front, with Peddlers permanently in striking distance. Claisse is threatening to pour the Severn onto the course, + this weekend's rain, will make this a stamina test. PC has already beaten Binocular this season and there is no reason why he can't again.

Dunguib is the danger, but his jumping is too dodgy and he could bounce.

1/ Peddlers Cross
2/ Dunguib
3/ Oscar Whiskey.

Place lay Binocular and especially Menorah- the form of his 2 wins this season, has just not worked out. Basically he's beat handicappers and a novice.

Twonky, Go Native, Sublimity, Solwhit and Won in the Dark all beat Binocular in the Fghting Fifth last season and then they finished 10th, NR, 6th and last in the CH. You can forget the FF as a form line.

Dunguib doesn't jump dodgily and why would he bounce? He jumps fine as you will see on Tuesday and as far as the 'bounce' factor is concerned this was always the plan since before the season started.

How can you forget the FF as a formline? stupid post imo.
Dunguib's plan was the AIG 1st run, he was a non-runner. Very good chance that his preparation has been rushed.

Oops,i have obviously offended you,sorry.
Its just that it took me ages to read it,and i was disappointed with the conclusion.
To be honest i am just about done on this race as i must have posted well over 100 posts on various threads,so if ok with you i will leave my brain cells alone.They need resting for the handicaps that i need to attempt to work out.
Once again i apologise,especially as that must have taken you some time.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Budd - I don't take offence easily and I would welcome constructive criticism and I'm always interested in sensible people's opinions. Can you provide a link to wherever you've expressed your views as I'd be interested to see why you're so opposed to mine, without really being specific. Who do you think will win, and why? I appreciate why you haven't elaborated, but I generally don't get TOO involved ante-post until the picture becomes clearer, as is now. I'd like to read your views on whatever thread you'd recommend reading.
Zealot - are you looking for trouble again?

Oh its a tough race to call Harchie.
My gut feeling is that PC will prove to be too tough to pass.Hes a real racing lover who never stops finding for his jockey.He has speed,and stays well,he can quicken and quicken again,but most of all he just loves what he does it seems,and just dont want to lose.
If anything can get past him fair enough,they will have to be bl00dy good if they do though.
Think HF and Bino will have their pace blunted before the last,and expect Oscar Whiskey and Menorah to fight it out with PC up the hill,with PC winning.Just think it will be a stayer rather than a speedier 2 miler that prevails in what i think will be a real test.
But then again...........!! 

You will see how stupid a post it was on Tuesday, Twonky.

Very difficult to call and I'm just fishing for an angle like everyone else. I'm trying not to be biased but I think there's a chance of getting the big four beaten, though as I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't want to lay 1/2. This watering business concerns me too as my 'plans' were based around a quick surface and my duo both really appreciating the ground more than most in the race. In a nutshell, on quicker ground, I think Overturn has a chance (if ridden properly) of giving them the slip, and I can't help but think Clerk's Choice is a few pounds better than his Bula form as he got there far too soon. If we have 'soft' in the ground description on Tuesday then my optimism will wane but after being with the pair for so long, I won't desert them now. I know they've a lot to do on the book but it's all about the inferior horses equalising the score with the perceived superior ones, and making the most of tactics & conditions - more of a level playing field. If the ground's good, I'll be very confident of both of these rags running screamers!

I do understand you're thoughts Harchi, but they are misplaced here.
Outsiders are worth backing when the market leaders have holes in them, not this race.
Outsiders sometimes pull it off when the number of market leaders is limited, not this race.
Outsiders are worth backing when the going or distance are extremes and where form doesn't easily translate, not this race.
Basically you should save you're money for the right time and the right place and that is definitely not this race.

To be fair to you Harchie,if the ground IS good,Clerks choice will run his race for sure,whether he is good enough is a big doubt,but at the odds you make a fair point.
Overturn looks to me that he is there for PC,and to be fair to the owner thats quiet understandable,but anyway its hard to see him reversing with Binocular.

I'm guessing that most of you think 1/2 about the big four is outstanding? Surely some big hitters will realise the arithmetic. It's more than a fair price wouldn't you say?

The big 'four'?

Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Dunguib, Menorah, Peddler's Cross and Oscar Whisky. Isn't that six?

Brig, you;d want some rain for Dunguib surely????

Brigust - the big four as in the leading quartet in the betting, Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Menorah & Peddlers Cross. I desperately want good ground and for Thousand Stars, not to be pressing Overturn - that will make it really interesting

Think most likely ground will be good to soft/good in places so I can't think of a good reason NOT to take the form straight from last years CH and Supreme. That puts Binocular and Menorah in the driving seat but they're both too short.
If I had the balls I would leave the race well alone but I might go with that and twist forecast them.

Not at all Zilzal. I have no problem with the going at all. I think he won the heavy ground races in spite of the ground.
He has a lot of pace plus stamina. The trainer's plan has always been to avoid the heavy ground and run him in the spring a fresh horse. The ground won't be fast and I cannot see anyone being inconvenienced by the ground. Let the best horse win.

OP bit harsh on Binocular, has done little wrong imo, 5 yo dont win CHs so the year before last is forgiven, its not like he wasnt close is it, biggest lay for me is HF in the place market, if he was as good as some people would have us believe, Solwhit would be in the field to take the rather handsome place money, agreed looks a great race this year, but proven form in the shape of Binocular will do for me.
ps
Clerks cant win, 5yos have a horrendous record.

Actually 5 yr olds have filled quiet a few places since Katchit won

I actually backed Katchit for a place on the grounds of loving cheltenham and being a tenacious little bugger, got paid at decent odds, but most judges would agree it was a poor CH that year, would still generally avoid the 5 yo's.

Splicer Keats - if the conditions & tactics are right and the opposition have holes in them, then 5yo's can win! I know it was a long time back to See You Then, when the average (even at his best) Katchit won a few years ago, but in reality, there haven't been that many short-priced 5yo's competing from what I can remember. Kribensis & Detroit City being notable ones. As for Binocular, he's become an almost schizophrenic performer in that we never know which one will turn up! A bit like James Wade in the PDC. I do think a trainer as knowledgeable as Henderson will have him right on the day but in the aftermath of last year's Champion Hurdle, after initially being really impressed (like everyone else) I have done some nit-picking with him. He was really good at Kempton and as I mentioned earlier, if there was a Scoop6 ticket rolling onto one in the race, he'd just about (by default) be my selection. I don't think I've been too harsh on him but I'm not convinced he's the horse that many, including McCoy, believe he is. I could easily be wrong (and will be if he wins it again) and I always seem to be the last one to recognise a truly brilliant horse as I take some convincing. Kauto Star & Denman were in my opinion PREMATURELY hyped as the real deal and although I've no doubts now, I remember all the other average performers that pundits have gone overboard about.

Spoke to richie killoran yesterday and he reckons Binoculars going up the gallops like concord, i think we see the real deal on tuesday, gl with whichever you bet.

In NH's defence I think it took him awhile to get to the bottom of what Binocular wants. Now he knows he can target his races accurately. Sometimes tis trial and error. Both Hobbs and McCain have decided fewer is better for their runners maybe next season will be different. Same with Dunguib. PF has decided to swerve the bad  ground because he thinks the spring ground will suit better, I hope he is right.

penzance - meant to say fourth festival win in a row. sorry.

harchy - gold star, in advance. imo.

harchy - neither will be within an asses roar of Hurricane Fly come the race tomorrow