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Harchibaldy
11 Mar 11 00:04
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| Topic/replies: 5,436 | Blogger: Harchibaldy's blog
I've also put this on the normal HR forum but I suspect many of the shrewder punters steer clear of that ground so I've posted it here too, and I'm expecting more structured response.
I've got question marks about everything in the big race and wouldn't be confident of any of the short ones. I'll be laying THE LOT at short odds and in the place market too, as I think this could be a very strange race. Readers of other threads will know I'm a big fan of a rank outsider in Clerk's Choice as I'm convinced however the race is run, he'll travel as well as anything. Whether he's got the natural ability, the class or even the will to win I'm not convinced but he just strikes me as one of those horses like Norton's Coin, that you'll scratch your head at, and ask yourself 'how's that won?' I can make a lot better case for him than before the race, than I could AFTER norton's Coin won his Gold Cup, so hear me out - Nobody else has given you their views on the entire field (I am thorough)  so here goes:
BINOCULAR - I've a suspicion that last year's race could have fell into his hands, after initially being very impressed. He had come up short at two previous Festivals with absolutely no excuses.
HURRICANE FLY - Probably the most naturally talented horse in the field but has more questions to answer than the other short-priced runners. Undulating track, faster ground than he's accustomed to, (possible) sustained pace more than he might be comfortable with and the 'Montjeu factor' which strangely enough, doesn't worry me. Ante-post, I would have been concerned about a huge field but that's not a worry now.
PEDDLERS CROSS - a horse I picked out early last season as a promising STAYER and future chaser and his form isn't exactly top-class as Binocular's run is a red-herring. Forget the gallop reports with Overturn as homework (over a few furlongs) counts for nothing (in NH racing) come the big day. He's a smashing horse but may lack the basic pace to win this.
MENORAH - a horse that's regularly outwitted me as he keeps proving me wrong. I thought he didn't have the gears to win the Bula, and still, I still think he hasn't got the brilliance to be a Champion Hurdler, but how many winners are brilliant? Very few! He is for me the most 'bombproof' horse in the race and is guaranteed to run his race and (without a doubt) he'd be my nomination for a  free £1M place bet - who's yours? There's still a part of me that would be disappointed if he won.
OSCAR WHISKEY - hugely promising and a sporting outsider but with a light year to find on the form-book. Nevertheless, not easily dismissed and at the prices I couldn't put anyone off him.
DUNGUIB - talking horse that jumps badly though I am still a fan. He seems to be very classy though his preparation would be a grave concern. The form isn't too bad but a very small field couldn't possibly have wound him up to full-pelt. I can see him going out like a light if he's not bang there. I can already anticipate the excuses and he's a place lay. That's not as stupid-sounding as I've made it seem, even though I think he's a really nice horse.
KHYBER KIM - for me, a horse that's never been up to this grade and ran a career best in the race last year and was still battered! A definite lay for the frame I/R (possibly at very short odds) as he's a decent traveller. He ain't got the ability but as I mentioned earlier, the possibility of a stop start race would be a concern as it would suit an inferior runner like him.
MILLE CHIEF - like KK, another that will travel well and may be an I/R lay at odds on (for the frame) as I just don't think he has the ability to win, but again, a strangely run race may leave me with egg on my face. I couldn't confidently place lay but at odds-on I/R, I'm readily prepared to do so.

In the anticipated absence of Salden Licht (who even with a big weight could win the County Hurdle) this leaves my friends CLERK'S CHOICE & OVERTURN. Although seemingly well-held on the form book, races are won & lost by the way they're run and I think Overturn could have a very easy lead and also get a breather in, which may really be to his advantage. He'll have better ground which will suit, and he's very tough though no experience of the course would be a big concern. As for Clerk's Choice.....I've become blinkered with this horse as I think a huge field and an end-to-end gallop (which looks improbable now) would have suited better, but I think he seems a really adaptable horse and will be swinging along, and possibly last off the bridle. If you watch the replay of the Bula, you'll see clearly that he arrived on the scene far too early and full of beans.
I'm gonna lay all the runners (at really skinny odds) in the place market too (I'm talking 1.1) as there's a possibility of this race turning into a bit of a farce - something that normally wouldn't happen in a Champion Hurdle. I've a strange feeling that Menorah may be the first one off the bridle and could trade at huge odds I/R, so I'll have my buttons set for that as a saver. My two outsiders are bets to nothing and I feel sure will trade at single figure odds, and possibly odds-on in the place market. Don't say you weren't warned. The last (and only time) time I wrote those words on any thread, I nominated three outsiders in a race at Wolverhampton in early November and I picked the 40/1 winner! Bring on your flak if you dare.....Devil

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Replies: 59
By:
irish_guy_13
When: 11 Mar 11 00:16
best of luck, posting one's  strong views on here deserves a reward.
By:
Gashboy13
When: 11 Mar 11 00:19
don't be disappointed when Menorah wins, he will turn out to be one of the best horses of this generation.
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 00:23
Thanks Irish Guy, and as I've mentioned, it's not something I've done on here much though I do like Bouggler & What A Friend at a massive prices as well. I don't think anyone can be too critical of anyone else putting up rank outsiders as selections so I'm on relatively safe territory.
Gash Boy - even if Menorah wins, I'll be astonished if he will ever be hailed as a great.
By:
Gashboy13
When: 11 Mar 11 00:26
why couldn't he be a great? you have no idea how good he could be!
By:
Wicketd
When: 11 Mar 11 00:30
Good post. Will be very interesting to see CC off another blistering gallop.
By:
Tavaris Jackson
When: 11 Mar 11 00:33
Thousand Stars?
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 00:36
Gash - as I've mentioned, he's continued to surprise me but he has an admirable attitude and appetite for a battle that maybe no other in the race could match. He just keeps pulling out more doesn't he? As I mentioned, some fool could put up something really silly like 85 I/R when he's first off the bridle, but nothing else in the race can match him for bottle. I was very impressed with his Bula win and he showed he has developed a turn of foot too. As I also said, he's bombproof, but I can't help but think he is far from brilliant. Whatever happens, he will NOT win in the style that Binocular did last year but I can certainly see him grinding out a gritty performance.
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 00:37
Wicked - there is every chance there won't be that blistering gallop you'd usually associate with a Champion Hurdle. There's nothing to bother Overturn is there?
By:
Gashboy13
When: 11 Mar 11 00:45
Being a great you will be judged by the races you win and the opposition you faced in those races. I tis perfectly possible he wins the Champion, then if taking to fences has to be a ridiculous price for the Arkle next year, then god knows... The manner of his racing style is irrelevant. Hardy Eustace was never flashy but he is a great!
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 00:49
Gash - touche! You're so right about that. A great doesn't need to be flashy - was See More Business? He certainly wasn't but he definitely was a great!
By:
Tavaris Jackson
When: 11 Mar 11 00:51
Is there any chance that Ruby rides Dunguib?
Philip Fenton would have to be mad no to ask him assuming that Townend keeps the ride on Hurricane Fly and Katie isn't kicked off Thousand Stars.
By:
Wicketd
When: 11 Mar 11 02:31
I reckon there will be a strong pace with Overturn and Thousand Stars. Magure and Mullins will both want good gallops and will ensure it imo.
By:
Wicketd
When: 11 Mar 11 02:32
McCain*
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 02:33
Tavaris - I'm sorry I missed your horse (Thousand Stars) but he has an absolute mountain to climb for me. He's totally exposed and the only thing in his favour is that he's a previous Festival winner over C&D which although invaluable, still leaves him with a hell of a lot to do to reach the frame! He'd be far better off carrying top-weight in the County Hurdle and although the ground is in its favour he will need a miracle as I see it. A definite place lay at around 7/1! I know I sound like Money Tree but I couldn't back him at 25/1 for t he frame!
By:
Rondetto
When: 11 Mar 11 05:10
Nice to see someone taking the time to analyze the race rather than just saying this or that will win with no foundation to it.

Can't say I agree with everything said but then if we all agreed with each other there would be no need for a forum.

Binocular You're more than a bit off the mark with him. 4 or 5 days prior to the Supreme Hurdle Nicky Henderson thought Binocular, who was only a 4 year old at the time, was going to miss Cheltenham and go to Aintree. Nicky desperately wanted to run him in the Triumph Hurdle not the Supreme but the short priced fav and would be good thing for that race Franchoek Ap McCoy also belonged to JP McManus so his request was refused.

Binocular had been taken out of the betting for the Supreme and Nicky in an interview looked really pi$$ed off when asked where he would run. "He may be more of an Aintree type" NEXT QUESTION. What happened during those very important 6 days leading up to the race when Nicky thought the horse was going to Aintree remain behind closed doors. They say Binocular missed a very important gallop but that aside it was clear which horse they thought was the best hurdler after the race if not before. Captain Cee Bee went chasing and Binocular was sent in pursuit of the Champion Hurdle crown.

For almost the entire season all you read when Binocular was mentioned was "He won't get up the hill" To this day AP McCoy blames himself for not going against instructions. The idea was to hold him up and conserve energy so he would get up the hill butthat proved to be his downfall. AP was going best of all at the top of the hill but hung onto him coming down the hill. Had he said stuff the hill and kicked sooner the result without a shadow of a doubt would have been very different. Binocular to everyone's surprise found the hill no problem but his tempo had gone going to the last diue to AP restraining him but he was gaining on the front 2 when they hit the rising ground.

With that info up there sleeve a new plan was hatched to go for home as soon as the jumped the 3rd last which saw Binocular win with ease.

It wasn't a case of the race falling into his hands it was a case of AP taking the race by the scruff of the neck at a time when Binocular is always at his strongest in his races. That's normally just after the 3rd last as we saw in the Champion Hurdle and against Overturn and Celestial Halo at Ascot.


The problem this year is it's a better race or appears to be. Every trainer in the race know what to expect from Binocular and they will be all thinking up plans on the best way to beat him.

That may be a lot more difficult than some people think. When Binocular changes into top gear at the top of the hill that's when the men will be separated from the boys.

Peddler's Cross: His best and only chance of beating Binocular is to strike before he does. He has plenty of pace but like Binoclar he's not known fro his instant acceleration. He's fast he stays further and acts on the course if he hits the front before the 3rd last he could make Binocular work a bit too hard between the 3rd last and last. If that happens Binocular and others come to challenge Binocular is unlikely to come out on top on the run to the line. Binocular doesn't have the dogged determination the likes of Menorah has e.g

However I have my doubts if Peddler's Cross will be good enough but he could play a big part in the downfall of Binocular and set the race up for something else.

Menorah: What's not to like about this horse? He's already conquered the course and seems to love it. The main worry about him is in both the Supreme and International he was the first to be scrubbed along. Yes he won both races but you wouldn't want to be scrubbing any horse along between 2 out and 3 out in the Champion Hurdle. Out battling GMOOH and catching up with Cue Card simply isn't the same as trying to catch Binocular when AP says go. If he has to be chased alongto get into contention that could cost him 3 or 4 lengths and in a Champion Hurdle tat is lot to tray and make up against these horses. Of course if he can get to them before the last and they are all off the bridle  I can't see anything out battling him. That is one big if though.

Dunquib: He's very hard to work out. Should have won the Supreme over the top against Hurricane Fly. Jumped better than ever on his return, travels better than any horse in training and that could prove to be a huge plus here. No surprise to me if he won , no surprise if he got beaten along way. His tactic are simple stay in cruise control and hope he's still cruising at the last. Be a much bigger danger will a real jockey on board.

Oscar Whisky: Nicky Henderson could  care less if he upset Binocular and there is no way of telling how much he has improved. He shouldn't be good enough on all known form but then again apart from running in the Supreme as a mere bay he's never really been tested. Again no shock if he won but you can't back them all.

Khyber Kim. Can't possibly beat Binocular unless the latter has run himelf into the ground trying to catch Peddlers but there are much better horses to contend with this year. No better than an ew chance if that.

Overturn. I can only think Nicky Henderson had word with Donal McCain before taking Zaynar out and new he would run. Both horses need a pacemaker and that is all he is. Overtrun is a classic example of the difference between a good handicapper and a Champion Hurdle horse. Menorah fans should take note because that could be the case with him.

Hurricane Fly last but not least. Where Binocular goes he goes but he will have to settle and I would much prefer if Ruby rode him for that reason. If he can and he has enough speed to follow Binocular through at the top of the hill with out coming off the bridle whatever you do stay away from the lay button. Without a shadow of a doubt he has by far the best turn of foot in the race. Menorah looked faster than he is due to Cue Card stopping but this fellow explodes when given the office.

It's all down to how each individual handles the expected injection of pace at the top of the hill. It will be there the race is won and lost.
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Mar 11 07:06
Rondetto, if you look at the CH thread you will see this race has been analysed to death. All of the above has been written before, ten fold. And that was before each horse had run and when the odds were better and the runners unknown.
The race is on Tuesday ffs.

Apart from that it is good to see others taking the time to put their thoughts down, right or wrong.
Me, I always seperate the 'class' from the 'workers'. In my opinion the winner comes from Binocular, Hurricane Fly and Dunguib, the 'class' horses.

Harchi, for a 'Norton's Coin' to win you require a poor set of runners running on ground they don't like over a distance they may not stay. This race is not that race.
By:
buddeliea
When: 11 Mar 11 07:40
You shout at us to listen,and then write the biggest essay in history,and come up with Overturn and Clerks Choice!!

Good luck!!
By:
stringerbell
When: 11 Mar 11 08:01
great initial post harch, thanks for that. i am of the opinion that peddlers will grind out a win after taking over from a furious pace from overturn on the home turn. i actually make thousand stars the most interesting outsider. and binocular for me is a huge lay. but what a fascinating race.
By:
the lay preacher
When: 11 Mar 11 08:02
wrong about binocular harchibaldy he should be going for his fourth champion hurdle in a row .and the reason is not complicated the ground.
last year was his first on good /good to soft ground.
the first year there was a deluge before racing and the following year they over watered to such an extent that despite going reports the ground was soft on the first day.
this horse needs goodish ground its that simple.
By:
willz
When: 11 Mar 11 10:10
Excellent post Harchibaldy and an equally good response form you Rondetto. Both informative and nice to see such in depth thoughts from each of you.
Personally iam a big fan of Peddlars Cross and have been with him from the start of the season. Think he can be like Hardy Eustace and Istabraq stepping back from the Sun Alliance hurdle and i do think he has enough pace.
By:
penzance
When: 11 Mar 11 10:18
the lay preacher
How can Binocular be going for his 4th Champion Hdle in a row?
he's only ran in 2.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 11 Mar 11 10:34
both of the large posts on this thread have omitted,what for me,is by far and away the most likely winner if the winner is outside of the top 4....thousand stars. Hasn't stopped improving since he joined wpm as ordinary h'capper,impressive winner of county hdl,only beaten 2 lengths by hurricane and solwit in punchestown after it and again ran a cracker fto this year behind those 2 when having to do all the donkey work.  wherever the hurricane finishes(i think he will win) thousand stars will be very close to him.serious ew chance.
By:
Mooono
When: 11 Mar 11 10:40
Beware Thousand Star backers The Couch has tipped this 1 up in his racing post Cheltenham clown fest tip party.
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Mar 11 10:41
Stranger things have happened 'firstimevisor'. However you overlooked the fact that Solwhit has beaten Thousand stars in each race and would not be considered a place prospect in this.
Selective form lines can be misleading. But there you go.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 11 Mar 11 10:59
solwit was antepost fav for last years ch for months beforehand,was taken out 2 weeks before as scoped badly and then reinstated with a health warning. He went off at a big price and ran poorly.With hindsight he shouldnt have been put back in the race.
This was solwit's only poor run in 2 years.He is the most consistent 2m hurdler around winning 6 grade 1s and 2nd to hurricane in 4 more.The only reason he was being aimed at the world hurdle this year was coz connections felt there was little point in taking on hf again.If he was 100% sound and running in the ch he would have every chance w/o hf.
The form lines of binocular,peddlars and menorah(I'm a fan of all 3)are far more suspect than the form of hf,solwit and thousand stars
By:
evra
When: 11 Mar 11 11:04
harchi,great minds think alike,i also fancy WHAT A FRIEND to surprise a few in the gold cupGrin
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Mar 11 11:36
Firstimevisor I think you will find he shared the head of the market with Zaynar and Go Native ffs. Tells you everything.
And that was because he beat Muirhead, Sublimity and Donna's Palm. He was beaten by Go Native in the Fighting Fifth.

Of course you may think any of the above would be placed in this year's race, I don't know.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 11 Mar 11 11:51
That so many people have tipped up so many different horses shows that Cheltenham is very competitive. An interesting arguement although why Overturn will be able to beat Binocular let alone any of the front ranked horses isn't entirely clear, he could well lead but to me he has had too many races, doesnt have the class and was hammered last time out by an outsider for the CH. That the ground will be better will suit a number of horses with more speed than him. Good luck to you though Cheltenham has known many a big priced winner in its time.
By:
Shrews
When: 11 Mar 11 12:33
I had backed Overturn for the CH prior to his poor run. My view is that he's better than that and decent ground will ensure he's a different horse on the day.  Is he a pacemaker for Peddlars ? Probably, but a decent one who's not without his chance.  I don't believe Peddlars can win in a sprint finish, the pace needs to come from somewhere and I believe it will be Peddlars and Overturn all the way until the top of the hill.  After that it's anyones guess. At the price i'm willing to think to think that Hurricane Fly just won't perform on the course.  Binocular may well be there, but he's a bit of a weirdo, so at the price i'm willing to think that last year was his only year and he's not going to be a multiple winner. Menorah surely has everything, unless Peddlars and Overturn have drawn the sting from him.  Dunguib is interesting if his jumping is up to scratch.  His high cruising speed may mean that he enjoys the race and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him involved at the finish.  Clerks Choice needs to improve 10lb IMO, but again I wouldn't be surprised if he's battling for a place if the main horses don't perform (unlikely that they all won't perform though). Oscar Whisky was behind Menorah in last years Supreme and I hope he takes his chance here rather than in the World Hurdle as I think he has a chance of winning this if Peddlars and Overturn go all out to stretch the stamina.

Top of the hill

Overturn - ridden
Peddlars Cross - comfortable

5l to Oscar Whisky and Dunguib

5l to the rest (tired)

At the last

Peddlars Cross, 1l to Dunguib, 3l to Oscar Whisky
Overturn finished.

Up the hill

Peddlars one pace, Dunguib staying on, Oscar Whisky running on strongly

At the line
1. Oscar Whisky by a length
2. Dunguib by 2l (caught in the last 15 yards)
3. Peddlars Cross (massive effort but outgeared)

5-10 lengths back to :

4. Binocular (valiant champions battle, but never really in contention)
5. Clerks Choice (never quite there)
6. Menorah (tired)
7. Overturn (exhausted and out like a light)
8. Thousand Stars (outclassed)
9. Hurricane Fly (never going)

Bloody hell i'd not even thought of Oscar Whisky.  I'd better get on !
By:
charwell.
When: 11 Mar 11 14:24
Some people clearly have far too much time on their hands!!

Binocular wins btw [;)]
By:
Shrews
When: 11 Mar 11 14:34
Lol,

I'm on my annual Cheltenham holiday from today !
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 15:22
Budd-Liar - rub a couple of brain cells together will you! If you disagree so strongly with my comments, then correct me with your views. Do you think after all the reasoning that I'm banking on Clerk's Choice & Overturn fighting out a finish? I'm highlighting possible flaws in the main contenders and looking for reasons why they won't win. As obvious as it sounds, there'll only be ONE winner and connections of (virtually all) the vanquished will be looking for excuses - I'm trying to anticipate them, and it's possible that Henderson, Mullins, Hobbs & McCain will ALL be scratching their heads in four days time - at least three of them will be bitterly disappointed, and giving their theories as to why their chargers haven't performed to their best. Just in case there's a shock result (like dozens of other Championship races at the Festival I've witnessed) I want to be on. I'm as aware as anyone that they can't win on the form book but I'm trying to envisage how the race might pan out. Thousand Stars could be the fly in the ointment and spoil my version of events as I'm uncertain how he will be ridden. There must be people on this forum that are in the know as to whether he & Overturn are running on their merits or are being employed as pacemakers. I think it would be a travesty to sacrifice Overturn to such a role and I hope Thousand Stars isn't there as a 'Golden Freeze' to be a spoiler.
PS - I think I made a valid point in nominating Menorah as my certainty to run his race (with a free £1M place bet) but that doesn't mean I think he will win - I'm not that dogmatic about any of the main protagonists and that's why I've sought value elsewhere. I really haven't got a clue who will win and if that hypothetical £1M bet was win only, it would be between Binocular & Hurricane Fly for me, with a slight preference for the former with the experience of three Festivals behind him.
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 15:35
For all I've written about the Champion Hurdle and the possible flaws in the big four protagonists, backing them all (with the correct figures) works out at approximately 1/2 - for big odds-on backers that seems to be fair value to me and I certainly wouldn't lay it!
By:
twonky
When: 11 Mar 11 16:54
Peddlers Cross is so big a price because of the trainer's name. If it was Nichols or Henderson, it would be half the price.

henderson is **** scared of Peddlers Cross. McCain knows what he will do, send Overturn off in front, with Peddlers permanently in striking distance. Claisse is threatening to pour the Severn onto the course, + this weekend's rain, will make this a stamina test. PC has already beaten Binocular this season and there is no reason why he can't again.

Dunguib is the danger, but his jumping is too dodgy and he could bounce.

1/ Peddlers Cross
2/ Dunguib
3/ Oscar Whiskey.

Place lay Binocular and especially Menorah- the form of his 2 wins this season, has just not worked out. Basically he's beat handicappers and a novice.
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Mar 11 17:30
Twonky, Go Native, Sublimity, Solwhit and Won in the Dark all beat Binocular in the Fghting Fifth last season and then they finished 10th, NR, 6th and last in the CH. You can forget the FF as a form line.

Dunguib doesn't jump dodgily and why would he bounce? He jumps fine as you will see on Tuesday and as far as the 'bounce' factor is concerned this was always the plan since before the season started.
By:
twonky
When: 11 Mar 11 17:39
How can you forget the FF as a formline? stupid post imo.
Dunguib's plan was the AIG 1st run, he was a non-runner. Very good chance that his preparation has been rushed.
By:
buddeliea
When: 11 Mar 11 17:41
Oops,i have obviously offended you,sorry.
Its just that it took me ages to read it,and i was disappointed with the conclusion.
To be honest i am just about done on this race as i must have posted well over 100 posts on various threads,so if ok with you i will leave my brain cells alone.They need resting for the handicaps that i need to attempt to work out.
Once again i apologise,especially as that must have taken you some time.
By:
ZEALOT
When: 11 Mar 11 17:46
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
By:
Harchibaldy
When: 11 Mar 11 18:13
Budd - I don't take offence easily and I would welcome constructive criticism and I'm always interested in sensible people's opinions. Can you provide a link to wherever you've expressed your views as I'd be interested to see why you're so opposed to mine, without really being specific. Who do you think will win, and why? I appreciate why you haven't elaborated, but I generally don't get TOO involved ante-post until the picture becomes clearer, as is now. I'd like to read your views on whatever thread you'd recommend reading.
Zealot - are you looking for trouble again? Devil
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