Was Long Run found to be Wrong After The Paddy Power?

RSA was 7th run of the season for him and he was a 5yo. He just got pipped by a dour stayer in Burton Port who went on to beat Denman in the Hennessy. I can forgive him that run, it was actually a great effort. 

What I can't forgive him is not winning the Paddy Power off 156. But if he was wrong after the race that is a very valid excuse. Then that King George performance.

if you could be certain he would run up to his kg form around chelt then hes a cert.big if imho.

After I watched the RSA last year I decided that I would back Long Run to win the King George and lay him for the Gold Cup. You could see he was a class horse, but Cheltenham doesn't play to his strengths. Like the previous poster said, if he brings his Kempton performance to the Gold Cup then he wins, but imo he won't because Cheltenham is not for him.

The main thing that stuck out in the RSA last year was how well he ran considering the amount of jumping errors. I agree that if he were to jump better then I have lost my bet, but I think his bad jumping goes hand in hand with the undulations. They won't be crawling around in the Gold Cup either.

wrong after pp u mean surely?

I though the RSA was a great run for a 5yo who was having his 7th start that season. He was just out stayed by Burton Port who won nto at Aintree and came 2nd in the Hennessy. Long Run was going well as he traded at 4/5 in running in the RSA.

I think he's a win bet or nothing, no each way

neill d Joined: 19 Aug 09   

indeed, in a way, if there is a new superstar of the level of Kauto or Denman, even Imperial, so I kind of want him to go well. We'll know definitively (hopefully) next week anyway what is required for him to produce his best, Yogi Breisner says that there is no reason why he shouldn't jump around Cheltenham, but then he would say that but interestingly he jumped poorly enough in the Feltham and at Warwick last season and still won, admittedly against poor opposition, so maybe you're right and its mainly track related


This is exactly the sort of quote that pollutes things. We all know he can jump a fence. He wouldn't be realistically competing for G1's otherwise, but the chink in the armour seems to be jumping fences going on undulating ground at a fast pace. You won't beat Imperial Commander (my fancy), Denman, Kauto Star etc with anything other than a top all round performance.

I think Breisner was saying that his jumping had improved, He jumped better in the King George than in last years Feltham, apparently they have adjusted the way he is actually jumping the fences, the horse likes to stand off and it seems that they have decided to let him be brave and do it his way rather than fiddle them. I should have elaborated and given the complete context of what the Breisner comments actually meant. They reckon his jumping has improved, be it jumping round Kempton or Cheltenham, Waley Cohen mentioned it in the interview after the Kibg George as well.

I can see how they can bring about improvement of him jumping on a flat track going at speed, but it's the undulations that concern me. I picture Long Run wanting to attack the fences at Cheltenham like he would at Kempton, but because of the unlevel surface on approaching a fence it unsteadies him and takes away from his concentration and his take off. I maybe very wrong on this, but that's what I have put it down to.

I don't think cheltenham is his track  if he wins I definitely won't lose any sleep I will just admit I was wrong, but on the evidence I have seen I will be more than happy to lay him.

Based on his Cheltenham form, and that's his only relevant form as far as the GC is concerned he needs to have improved massively from last year's RSA and somehow developed untold amounts of stamina. The run in November would certainly leave it somewhere out the back and that distance at Cheltenham will suit it far more than the GC trip. I'll be staggered if this finishes within 20 lengths of the winner.

Firstly if we went  purely on cheltenham form we wouldn't have backed kauto start in 2007. Secondly the king  george is the best trial for the gold cup.  If he can be forgiven that paddy power run then he has ab excellent chance.  Many many cheltenham winners were beaten the previous year at the festival. Many Gold cup winners were beaten the  previous year in a novice chase.

He can't be written off is he was not right in the paddy power.

cvbyrne if you look at the changing of the old guard thread i have put it near the top it has some interesting observations regarding long run

CVByrne....i think you probably could forgive it 1 bad run at the track but that is twice that it has finished drunk towards the line. I do totally dismiss the KG form, which was completely average anyway. Take KS out of that field and it would have been the worst in living memory. Besides which, if the horse was sick at Chelt it would have pulled up; you don't finish in the money if you are a sick horse. I'll accept it is I'm wrong but I hope following yet another disappointing performance at Chelt people accept it aint a stayer.

CVByrne Date Joined: 14 Mar 06

Firstly if we went  purely on cheltenham form we wouldn't have backed kauto start in 2007. Secondly the king  george is the best trial for the gold cup.  If he can be forgiven that paddy power run then he has ab excellent chance.  Many many cheltenham winners were beaten the previous year at the festival. Many Gold cup winners were beaten the  previous year in a novice chase.

He can't be written off is he was not right in the paddy power


If Long Run was running in a similar standard contest to last years RSA then i'd consider him a betting prospect, but he's not. The facts are that he has to improve massively on anything he's produced before, on a track that has shown him at his worst twice already against the best stayers and jumpers he has ever faced. Anything shorter than 20/1 is silly imo. As i've already said, I have a feeling Long Run won't finish the race.

I'm pretty sure it's not the surface. He traveled like a dream in last years RSA and it is a credit that he finished where he did after clattering through as many fences that he did. Long Run is a speed horse, I'd put him in the bracket of a flat track bully. It's just the unlevel ground that affects his jumping. You try running at speed at a fence almost as tall as yourself not knowing how level the camber of the ground is.

I'm still convinced it's early days for  LR and the level of certainty expressed on him not liking cheltenham and not getting home is too soon. CV's point adds to the possibility that he was not right/feeling the effects of his races that calendar year...I don't know. I retained faith for the KG. It's another stretch for the GC.But I can't help but feel this is a horse with a massive engine and potential to equal or surpass other top notch FR breds who've won the KG and GC - The Fellow and KS.

I can see why Browne's and others posting are keen to lay but I am convinced there is a lot more to come from this horse and I personally think he will stay (Cadoudal the sire...Lacdoudal wasn't stopping in the 3m 7f x country he won)..

I feel like I will be in the vast miniority when I say this, but here goes...

I don't personally use the King George as a serious form line for the Gold Cup. I think the two races provide completely different tests and it takes an exceptional horse to be able to win both in it's career. There are a fair few examples of this over the past 20 years or so such as Desert Orchid, The Fellow, See More Business, Best Mate, Kicking King and most recently Kauto Star.

The differences between the two races are numerous. At Kempton you have a flat track, 3 mile race usually run in a bog and at Cheltenham there's an extra 2 1/2 furlongs on the undulations ran more often than not on fast spring ground.

It's not spoke about much these days, but just before Kauto Star won his first Gold Cup people were debating whether he really liked Cheltenham. I'm not convinced he does like it, but such as his sheer class he's been able to win it twice becoming the first in history to regain it after losing the title. I say this because his first Gold Cup was not great...he finished 5 lengths ahead of Turpin Green back in 3rd. It was more workmanlike than the superstar that he is known as. When you add this to the fact that he has twice fell at the festival in the Champion Chase and last years Gold Cup and came 2nd in the Gold Cup of 2008 finishing a short head in front of Neptune Collenges the overall picture leads to a horse that isn't seen to it's best at Cheltenham. I can't not mention his 2009 Gold Cup romp as it was a great achievement, but he has not shown such inconsistancy at any other track as he has at Cheltenham.

On to Long Run I believe he has the potential to be as classy as Kauto Star and I do believe he will win a Gold Cup, but not until Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander retire.