Was Long Run found to be Wrong After The Paddy Power?

dont know but...i found it couldnt go up nand down hills after the rsa

RSA was 7th run of the season for him and he was a 5yo. He just got pipped by a dour stayer in Burton Port who went on to beat Denman in the Hennessy. I can forgive him that run, it was actually a great effort. 

What I can't forgive him is not winning the Paddy Power off 156. But if he was wrong after the race that is a very valid excuse. Then that King George performance.

Do you deal with anything other than rumour and speculation?

You are overcomplicating things. Just deal with the things that you have witnessed and know are facts. Simple facts are Long Run acts best on a flat track where as undulations affects the way he jumps and travels. Forget about what might have been said. Almost every horse has an excuse attached to it when it doesn't win. Remember what your dad told you...horses for courses.

if you could be certain he would run up to his kg form around chelt then hes a cert.big if imho.

Interesting question none the less, he was either wrong or he wasn't though, its pretty crucial info to be aware of. For what its worth Ruby said on TV that he thought that the horse might need soft ground as much as anything else

After I watched the RSA last year I decided that I would back Long Run to win the King George and lay him for the Gold Cup. You could see he was a class horse, but Cheltenham doesn't play to his strengths. Like the previous poster said, if he brings his Kempton performance to the Gold Cup then he wins, but imo he won't because Cheltenham is not for him.

I thought he travelled great in the RSA maybe the combimation of the undulations and hitting fences took it out of him. If he jumps better the effect of the track might be mitigated, thought he went ok in PP as well. I don't know I suppose is the short anwser and you're right, probably better to stick to the facts. Fitzy muddying the waters for some here though

The main thing that stuck out in the RSA last year was how well he ran considering the amount of jumping errors. I agree that if he were to jump better then I have lost my bet, but I think his bad jumping goes hand in hand with the undulations. They won't be crawling around in the Gold Cup either.

Watch the ATR chelts preview guys. Mick Fitz has me believing him that Long run was wrong after the King George.

I don't mind anything else we all have opinions, but in my case, my opinion was Long Run can't be backed at cheltenham if he couldn't win the Paddy Power of 156. But if he was wrong, then that's a valid excuse for me.

I'm one who knows horses are not machines and will forgive a run most certainly, especially if the win the King George by 12l nto. So this bit of info is crucial for me if there is a valid excuse for Paddy Power loss.

He had Poquelin behind that day who won under top weight nto too. Does Poquelin not like Cheltenham?

wrong after pp u mean surely?

indeed, in a way, if there is a new superstar of the level of Kauto or Denman, even Imperial, so I kind of want him to go well. We'll know definitively (hopefully) next week anyway what is required for him to produce his best, Yogi Breisner says that there is no reason why he shouldn't jump around Cheltenham, but then he would say that but interestingly he jumped poorly enough in the Feltham and at Warwick last season and still won, admittedly against poor opposition, so maybe you're right and its mainly track related

I though the RSA was a great run for a 5yo who was having his 7th start that season. He was just out stayed by Burton Port who won nto at Aintree and came 2nd in the Hennessy. Long Run was going well as he traded at 4/5 in running in the RSA.

If Long Run wins a lot of people will feel foolish. How often does a a horse win the King George by 12l and then you write him off for the Gold Cup? I'll need to sleep on this and have a rethink. But the fundamental piece of my argument against Long Run is now called into question.

I think he's a win bet or nothing, no each way

Imperial Commander is good value at 7/2 to retain his Gold Cup, why because he is a Cheltenham Course Specialist. Has run in 6 chases round Cheltenham and has won 5 of them, his only defeat being way back in 2007, when he didn't stay the 3m-1f, but we know he does now. Long Run well everthing has been said about him already. Kauto and Denman too old, so unless there is a new kid on the block, Imperial Commander is well overpriced.

neill d Joined: 19 Aug 09   

indeed, in a way, if there is a new superstar of the level of Kauto or Denman, even Imperial, so I kind of want him to go well. We'll know definitively (hopefully) next week anyway what is required for him to produce his best, Yogi Breisner says that there is no reason why he shouldn't jump around Cheltenham, but then he would say that but interestingly he jumped poorly enough in the Feltham and at Warwick last season and still won, admittedly against poor opposition, so maybe you're right and its mainly track related


This is exactly the sort of quote that pollutes things. We all know he can jump a fence. He wouldn't be realistically competing for G1's otherwise, but the chink in the armour seems to be jumping fences going on undulating ground at a fast pace. You won't beat Imperial Commander (my fancy), Denman, Kauto Star etc with anything other than a top all round performance.

I thought it was a great run CV. Just think if that performance is replicated against the Gold Cup field then he will fall some way short. In my mind it's a fair possibility that Long Run won't finish because I think he will fall trying to keep pace. I hope he doesn't, but that's how I see things.

I think Breisner was saying that his jumping had improved, He jumped better in the King George than in last years Feltham, apparently they have adjusted the way he is actually jumping the fences, the horse likes to stand off and it seems that they have decided to let him be brave and do it his way rather than fiddle them. I should have elaborated and given the complete context of what the Breisner comments actually meant. They reckon his jumping has improved, be it jumping round Kempton or Cheltenham, Waley Cohen mentioned it in the interview after the Kibg George as well.

I'm with him but was a bit surprised and concerned to read in RP today that yesterday was first time he'd jumped fences since the King George.

Still Breisner and Henderson have forgotten more about horses than I'll ever know so trust they know what they're doing.

I can see how they can bring about improvement of him jumping on a flat track going at speed, but it's the undulations that concern me. I picture Long Run wanting to attack the fences at Cheltenham like he would at Kempton, but because of the unlevel surface on approaching a fence it unsteadies him and takes away from his concentration and his take off. I maybe very wrong on this, but that's what I have put it down to.

ya I get what you're saying alright, I still haven't made my mind up on the whole thing really

I don't think cheltenham is his track  if he wins I definitely won't lose any sleep I will just admit I was wrong, but on the evidence I have seen I will be more than happy to lay him.

CVByrne Joined: 14 Mar 06

If Long Run wins a lot of people will feel foolish. How often does a a horse win the King George by 12l and then you write him off for the Gold Cup? I'll need to sleep on this and have a rethink. But the fundamental piece of my argument against Long Run is now called into question.


I've made my thoughts clear on how I think Long Run's race will pan out, but if he did go on to win the last thing I would feel is foolish. I'd congratulate those that kept the faith and I would accept that I need to alter my point of view on him for next time.

Based on his Cheltenham form, and that's his only relevant form as far as the GC is concerned he needs to have improved massively from last year's RSA and somehow developed untold amounts of stamina. The run in November would certainly leave it somewhere out the back and that distance at Cheltenham will suit it far more than the GC trip. I'll be staggered if this finishes within 20 lengths of the winner.

Look at how it loses 2nd at the finish in the 2m 5f November race and it takes a flight of fantasy to believe this will prefer an extra 1100 meters.

Firstly if we went  purely on cheltenham form we wouldn't have backed kauto start in 2007. Secondly the king  george is the best trial for the gold cup.  If he can be forgiven that paddy power run then he has ab excellent chance.  Many many cheltenham winners were beaten the previous year at the festival. Many Gold cup winners were beaten the  previous year in a novice chase.

He can't be written off is he was not right in the paddy power.

Even if he werent quiet right or whatever,the fact remains that he has run well everywhere except one track.And why has this not been said before about him not being right by the way??
I just cannot have him at all for the Gold Cup and his current price is based on his KG win which was good but how good?? The opposition was pretty poor,and really the only real decent chaser over 3m was sick,and even he was catching him i thought before his blunder.Riverside Theatre aint top class over 3m imo.
Until he proves me otherwise i will say he is a kempton lover and a cheltenham hater.And his current odds imo are far too short.He has some real good horses at this course and distance to beat,and a horse that has never showed me he can run this course and distance does not interest me one bit at those odds.

cvbyrne if you look at the changing of the old guard thread i have put it near the top it has some interesting observations regarding long run

Bud i'm very angry that we did not know about him not being right after the paddy power as that would gave been info I needed before the king george. But tactically it was right for them to keep quiet about it and the earplugs. There was a big  gamble before the off on long run. We know why.

CVByrne....i think you probably could forgive it 1 bad run at the track but that is twice that it has finished drunk towards the line. I do totally dismiss the KG form, which was completely average anyway. Take KS out of that field and it would have been the worst in living memory. Besides which, if the horse was sick at Chelt it would have pulled up; you don't finish in the money if you are a sick horse. I'll accept it is I'm wrong but I hope following yet another disappointing performance at Chelt people accept it aint a stayer.

Excuse for last year was he was over the top this year he was a fresh horse when he finished a tired third, he is a terrible price a present to win a gold cup and as I'm not an ante post layer I will be hoping he is 5's on the day.

CVByrne Date Joined: 14 Mar 06

Firstly if we went  purely on cheltenham form we wouldn't have backed kauto start in 2007. Secondly the king  george is the best trial for the gold cup.  If he can be forgiven that paddy power run then he has ab excellent chance.  Many many cheltenham winners were beaten the previous year at the festival. Many Gold cup winners were beaten the  previous year in a novice chase.

He can't be written off is he was not right in the paddy power


If Long Run was running in a similar standard contest to last years RSA then i'd consider him a betting prospect, but he's not. The facts are that he has to improve massively on anything he's produced before, on a track that has shown him at his worst twice already against the best stayers and jumpers he has ever faced. Anything shorter than 20/1 is silly imo. As i've already said, I have a feeling Long Run won't finish the race.

I don't even think the problem with backing this horse is the course, its the ground, his two best performances came on much softer going than what he will encounter a week today where he jumped much better.

So far he has not jumped well on faster surfaces and I can see the same happening next week as he will be going much faster into the fences than he had to in the King George.

He may win but I won't be taking a chance on him, I will stick with Imperial Commander.

I'm pretty sure it's not the surface. He traveled like a dream in last years RSA and it is a credit that he finished where he did after clattering through as many fences that he did. Long Run is a speed horse, I'd put him in the bracket of a flat track bully. It's just the unlevel ground that affects his jumping. You try running at speed at a fence almost as tall as yourself not knowing how level the camber of the ground is.

It's a fair point, I'm still not convinced re: the ground, I know he travelled well in the RSA but I'm not sure he jumped as well but maybe you are right and he is unbalanced at courses like Cheltenham, either way I don't think he value for the Gold Cup as there are to many negatives.

I'm still convinced it's early days for  LR and the level of certainty expressed on him not liking cheltenham and not getting home is too soon. CV's point adds to the possibility that he was not right/feeling the effects of his races that calendar year...I don't know. I retained faith for the KG. It's another stretch for the GC.But I can't help but feel this is a horse with a massive engine and potential to equal or surpass other top notch FR breds who've won the KG and GC - The Fellow and KS.

I can see why Browne's and others posting are keen to lay but I am convinced there is a lot more to come from this horse and I personally think he will stay (Cadoudal the sire...Lacdoudal wasn't stopping in the 3m 7f x country he won)..

If you've backed him in the King George you can probably afford to step in for the Gold Cup

I feel like I will be in the vast miniority when I say this, but here goes...

I don't personally use the King George as a serious form line for the Gold Cup. I think the two races provide completely different tests and it takes an exceptional horse to be able to win both in it's career. There are a fair few examples of this over the past 20 years or so such as Desert Orchid, The Fellow, See More Business, Best Mate, Kicking King and most recently Kauto Star.

The differences between the two races are numerous. At Kempton you have a flat track, 3 mile race usually run in a bog and at Cheltenham there's an extra 2 1/2 furlongs on the undulations ran more often than not on fast spring ground.

It's not spoke about much these days, but just before Kauto Star won his first Gold Cup people were debating whether he really liked Cheltenham. I'm not convinced he does like it, but such as his sheer class he's been able to win it twice becoming the first in history to regain it after losing the title. I say this because his first Gold Cup was not great...he finished 5 lengths ahead of Turpin Green back in 3rd. It was more workmanlike than the superstar that he is known as. When you add this to the fact that he has twice fell at the festival in the Champion Chase and last years Gold Cup and came 2nd in the Gold Cup of 2008 finishing a short head in front of Neptune Collenges the overall picture leads to a horse that isn't seen to it's best at Cheltenham. I can't not mention his 2009 Gold Cup romp as it was a great achievement, but he has not shown such inconsistancy at any other track as he has at Cheltenham.

On to Long Run I believe he has the potential to be as classy as Kauto Star and I do believe he will win a Gold Cup, but not until Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander retire.

fistfull agree about  lacdoudal ,and i dont see big bucks showing a lack of stamina ,also sired by cadoudlal

I hope people get stuck into LONG RUN with SAM W-C on board I will lay it all day. Bad course form Bad jockey, if it wins thats life but I can afford to lose when Sam W-C rides a winner in a proper race

LIKE IT,so your saying he is deffo 7 pounds better than his KG run?
He must be some horse then.

Long Run was found to be wrong "In the head" the first time he saw Cheltenham

After what could only be described as an awesome performance in the King George he's a huge price for the race and he'll most likely drift even further.

Jumping round Kempton is something we knew he could do but everytime he runs at Cheltenham he just goes to pieces. Horse has a mind of his own IMO and will just go back to his old ways when faced with the undulations and quick pace changes. Dodgy bet in anyone's book.

ok rondetto thanks for your expert views on the race i will get on the phone and tell n.henderson hes wasting his time sending the horse to the gold cup , i am sure when hendo retires you can take his place .

Long Run has technically won the King George as a 5yr old.but for the weather..u r either in the camp that he hates Cheltenham (2 defeats ).or u can forgive a horse who was over the top last march¬ quite on his A game in november .they said Best  Mate wouldn't stay.it's a fascinating Gold Cup and I'm with  the young pretender...

Nice post FOLYESWAR " ok rondetto thanks for your expert views on the race i will get on the phone and tell n.henderson hes wasting his time sending the horse to the gold cup , i am sure when hendo retires you can take his place"


Amazing how many prats come on forums with snide remarks and meaningless one liners.. I made a valid point about Long Run not being suited to Cheltenham which incidentally stem from racing days in France and constantly brushing through his fences like most french chasers do. He has failed miserably tiwce at Cheltenham to get round trouble free and has not acted on the course. Nicky spent hours on end schooling him over a replica Cheltenham downhill fence at Sevenbarrows and it still never helped.

He went to Yogi Brezner a show jumping genius who improved him enough to put in a clear round at kempton but that does not mean that when faced with going stride for stride with the likes of Denman round the undulations of Cheltenham he won't find it all too much for him, forget himsewlf and go right through one like he has before.

I think there;s enough reason to worry Nicky let alone worry a punter. If you have some reason to suggest I am wrong then  come up with something better than snide uncalled for remarks. or go back to the drunken bar you came from.

What i,am saying is Long Run is a great horse but on a up and down course you need a jockey who is able to address a fence not just sit there and hope hence why the horse makes mistakes and in the Gold Cup at proper pace. Thats why i will be laying Long Run as i do with all Sam W-C rides at Cheltenham against the pros.He has chances against his own kind mainly because he is on the best horse but still gets beaten.

Did you lay him when he rode LIberthine??

Could have thats many years ago just look at his stats and tell me its a bad system

I've backed Long Run in every run he's had in this country, mainly because I think he's a machine, and like others, has excuses for his 2 defeats at Cheltenham.

In the RSA last year, he was having his 5th run of the season, having started his year beating Rubi Ball at Auteuil in October. He'd been on the go all season without a break, so it's more than believable that he'd gone in his coat and was over the top come March, as Henderson states he was. He still travelled like the best horse in the race until the turn for home, so blowing up ties with Henderson's thoughts on his condition.

In the PP in November, he was having his first run for 6 months, Henderson's string were out of form at the time, he jumped poorly, got into no rhythm but still put up his best figures to date, and that was as an inexperienced 5 yr old in a competitive handicap over a trip he'd have found too sharp.

He was then got ready for the King George, where he got into a rhythm and his jumping was much, much better. Watch the end of that race again, and despite being asked to quicken turning for home, he was back on the bridle approaching the line and powering further and further away from them. He's got a bit of toe, but looks all over a stayer for me given the way he finished that race, just as he did in the Feltham the year before.

He might be a flat track bully, but I'm not so sure. He's had excuses at Cheltenham before, but there's no doubt in my mind he's got the best engine in this year's Gold Cup and is the one to beat; it's his to throw away.

He's only 6 years old so will still be growing, strengthening up and improving. People seem to forget that.

rondetto ,right my valid points about long run are on the " long run the changing of the guard thread i have put it up near the top of this forum,but that is just my opinion have a look, im not a guesser who just looks at a horse with all 1s next to his name as i am sure you are not, anyway you will see that i was against this horse at first .i may be wrong and you may be right we shall see soon ,

i apologise for the sarky remarks as i may have got out of bed the wrong side .

No worries mate g/l with your selection.

I spoke to Ian Robinson (IC owner) at a preview night on Friday who reckons Long Run has problems coming down hill at speed rather than jumping. I recall Wayward Lad was some way clear of his peers on a flat track but was well short of his level round cheltenham-at least he didn't seem to get up the hill. I also recall The Fellow came over as a young horse and took some time to adjust to the course so maybe next year. Dessie proved that it can be done by a horse not suited to the test but he won a poor gold cup-this isn't one.

All points for and against Long Run's ability to act around Cheltenham are valid until proved otherwise - as Leonardo says you either buy the excuses (over the top for RSA and then not fully wound up/Henderson's string not right in PP), or you think he doesn't do himself justice around there.
I know several good judges who believe he really needs soft ground, and if they're right, and I'm right that he's not going to get it, we might not get a definitive answer to the Cheltenham answer, and he still won't win (I know there are TWO IFs in that sentence, but it's what I believe anyhow !)

There's only one if in that sentence and you are a very brave putting your neck on the line saying that the ground won't be soft on Friday.

Lay off the booze!

So what are our thoughts for the big one?

Massive engine, just like Big Bucks - keep looking for the Cadoudal's (stamina index 18f).

Lion hearted effort by the two old boys also.

Also a thank you shout out to Mick Fitzgerald.

CVB.You like that!!!!

Yes indeed. Amazing that one piece of info totally turned me around on the horse. Kauto placing and trading odds on for i/r lays to match made it a brilliant race

well done cv i was all over this horse posted a few threads on him , had a great win

It's been an unreal festival, never again in my life will I have as many winners. That gold cup just topped it off. Well Sir Du Champs did actually.

well done CV.

Not sure Sizing Europe and Long Run got up the hill though (or Hurricane Fly, First Lieutenant and Sir Des Champs!)[;)]

Cheers Rease

I had an e/w 4 fold and trebles on First Lieutenant / Sizing Europe / Tranquil Sea and Mossley. So with Tranquil a n/r it became 2 3000/1 trebles and two doubles on Mossley. I put up in running lays starting at 5.0 down to 1.1 and a good few matched. Then had Bobs Worth @ 10/1 for the race anyway. Plus the place side of all the multiples paid out and I got 120/1 on the Sizing FL double.

What a bet that turned out to be

Well done CV, I always felt that info relating to the PP had to be relevant.

Thanks Neill. If I hadn't backed him today I'd probably be against the horse for the rest of his career.

Ya man, I reckon there will scarcely be a race for the rest of his career where I won't back him now, but in all seriousness, fair play you called it, the fact he was wrong after the Paddy Power had to be relevant to his chance in the King George and latterly, the Gold Cup. There were excuses for his two runs at Chelts prior to today.

He won the King George by 12l and there was a plunge that day on him opened 13/2 and he went off 9/2. They knew he wasn't right in the Paddy Power. Same as today, nobody wanted Imperial Commander, all the money was for Long Run. Plus sentiment bets on Kauto.

Skinny odds on Long Run from here on in. Think King George / Gold Cup double is the bet next season.

The horses in the RSA will be a threat next season.That was a serious race,and the Irish are going to be real strong in the 3m division for a few years.Bostons Angel was one of the highlights for me this week.Jessies Dream is a bl00dy good horse but BA just dont like getting beat,tough as feck!!

Long Run surprised me for sure,did not expect that at all yesterday after his previous visits to Cheltenham.I got him wrong thinking the ground and the course were against him,and those that argued the case for him improving his jumping was the crucial point got it right.
Fair play to all of you that had faith in Long Run.

Budd - I was with you on PC in the CH and it looks like a costly second with my antepost doubles and trebles including Long Run and others (including Jessie's dream at 12s)...I'm not sure about the RSA...TFR not running it's race made it difficult to assess imo...would be great to see some of the younger chasers coming through to challenge LR next season...I would not rule out pndorama improving with give in the ground either..

The horses i rally wanted to win this week all ran well.
Sprinter Sacre
Finians Rainbow
Big Zeb
Peddlers Cross
Albertas Run
Bostons Angel
Denman
Did them all to win,should have done some of them e/w!!   All good fun though.

really*

Good shout Budd...agreed re e/w...I had that kind of festival too...My big heinz bet included grandouet; long run; PC; Jessies dream...Yesterday I had a 'good' bet on nearby at 94s in the County...3rd and Fair Top at 24s in the 6th...3rd..Ferdy's in the last at 11s...4th...5 from6 in the placepot...witha £12.40 line spoilt by enda boger's getting pipped for third in the foxhunters! Cheltenham isn't half draining...but Long Run helped!