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Cheltenham Festival
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These 74 comments are related to the topic:
Was Long Run found to be Wrong After The Paddy Power?
Was Long Run found to be Wrong After The Paddy Power?
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Replies: 74
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I hope people get stuck into LONG RUN with SAM W-C on board I will lay it all day. Bad course form Bad jockey, if it wins thats life but I can afford to lose when Sam W-C rides a winner in a proper race
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LIKE IT,so your saying he is deffo 7 pounds better than his KG run?
He must be some horse then. |
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Long Run was found to be wrong "In the head" the first time he saw Cheltenham
 After what could only be described as an awesome performance in the King George he's a huge price for the race and he'll most likely drift even further. Jumping round Kempton is something we knew he could do but everytime he runs at Cheltenham he just goes to pieces. Horse has a mind of his own IMO and will just go back to his old ways when faced with the undulations and quick pace changes. Dodgy bet in anyone's book. |
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ok rondetto thanks for your expert views on the race i will get on the phone and tell n.henderson hes wasting his time sending the horse to the gold cup , i am sure when hendo retires you can take his place .
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Long Run has technically won the King George as a 5yr old.but for the weather..u r either in the camp that he hates Cheltenham (2 defeats ).or u can forgive a horse who was over the top last march¬ quite on his A game in november .they said Best Mate wouldn't stay.it's a fascinating Gold Cup and I'm with the young pretender...
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Nice post FOLYESWAR " ok rondetto thanks for your expert views on the race i will get on the phone and tell n.henderson hes wasting his time sending the horse to the gold cup , i am sure when hendo retires you can take his place"
Amazing how many prats come on forums with snide remarks and meaningless one liners.. I made a valid point about Long Run not being suited to Cheltenham which incidentally stem from racing days in France and constantly brushing through his fences like most french chasers do. He has failed miserably tiwce at Cheltenham to get round trouble free and has not acted on the course. Nicky spent hours on end schooling him over a replica Cheltenham downhill fence at Sevenbarrows and it still never helped. He went to Yogi Brezner a show jumping genius who improved him enough to put in a clear round at kempton but that does not mean that when faced with going stride for stride with the likes of Denman round the undulations of Cheltenham he won't find it all too much for him, forget himsewlf and go right through one like he has before. I think there;s enough reason to worry Nicky let alone worry a punter. If you have some reason to suggest I am wrong then come up with something better than snide uncalled for remarks. or go back to the drunken bar you came from. |
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What i,am saying is Long Run is a great horse but on a up and down course you need a jockey who is able to address a fence not just sit there and hope hence why the horse makes mistakes and in the Gold Cup at proper pace. Thats why i will be laying Long Run as i do with all Sam W-C rides at Cheltenham against the pros.He has chances against his own kind mainly because he is on the best horse but still gets beaten.
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Did you lay him when he rode LIberthine??
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Could have thats many years ago just look at his stats and tell me its a bad system
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I've backed Long Run in every run he's had in this country, mainly because I think he's a machine, and like others, has excuses for his 2 defeats at Cheltenham.
In the RSA last year, he was having his 5th run of the season, having started his year beating Rubi Ball at Auteuil in October. He'd been on the go all season without a break, so it's more than believable that he'd gone in his coat and was over the top come March, as Henderson states he was. He still travelled like the best horse in the race until the turn for home, so blowing up ties with Henderson's thoughts on his condition. In the PP in November, he was having his first run for 6 months, Henderson's string were out of form at the time, he jumped poorly, got into no rhythm but still put up his best figures to date, and that was as an inexperienced 5 yr old in a competitive handicap over a trip he'd have found too sharp. He was then got ready for the King George, where he got into a rhythm and his jumping was much, much better. Watch the end of that race again, and despite being asked to quicken turning for home, he was back on the bridle approaching the line and powering further and further away from them. He's got a bit of toe, but looks all over a stayer for me given the way he finished that race, just as he did in the Feltham the year before. He might be a flat track bully, but I'm not so sure. He's had excuses at Cheltenham before, but there's no doubt in my mind he's got the best engine in this year's Gold Cup and is the one to beat; it's his to throw away. He's only 6 years old so will still be growing, strengthening up and improving. People seem to forget that. |
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rondetto ,right my valid points about long run are on the " long run the changing of the guard thread i have put it up near the top of this forum,but that is just my opinion have a look, im not a guesser who just looks at a horse with all 1s next to his name as i am sure you are not, anyway you will see that i was against this horse at first .i may be wrong and you may be right we shall see soon ,
i apologise for the sarky remarks as i may have got out of bed the wrong side . |
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No worries mate g/l with your selection.
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I spoke to Ian Robinson (IC owner) at a preview night on Friday who reckons Long Run has problems coming down hill at speed rather than jumping. I recall Wayward Lad was some way clear of his peers on a flat track but was well short of his level round cheltenham-at least he didn't seem to get up the hill. I also recall The Fellow came over as a young horse and took some time to adjust to the course so maybe next year. Dessie proved that it can be done by a horse not suited to the test but he won a poor gold cup-this isn't one.
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All points for and against Long Run's ability to act around Cheltenham are valid until proved otherwise - as Leonardo says you either buy the excuses (over the top for RSA and then not fully wound up/Henderson's string not right in PP), or you think he doesn't do himself justice around there.
I know several good judges who believe he really needs soft ground, and if they're right, and I'm right that he's not going to get it, we might not get a definitive answer to the Cheltenham answer, and he still won't win (I know there are TWO IFs in that sentence, but it's what I believe anyhow !) |
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There's only one if in that sentence and you are a very brave putting your neck on the line saying that the ground won't be soft on Friday.
Lay off the booze! |
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So what are our thoughts for the big one?
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Massive engine, just like Big Bucks - keep looking for the Cadoudal's (stamina index 18f).
Lion hearted effort by the two old boys also. |
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Also a thank you shout out to Mick Fitzgerald.
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CVB.You like that!!!!
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Yes indeed. Amazing that one piece of info totally turned me around on the horse. Kauto placing and trading odds on for i/r lays to match made it a brilliant race
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well done cv i was all over this horse posted a few threads on him ,
had a great win |
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It's been an unreal festival, never again in my life will I have as many winners. That gold cup just topped it off. Well Sir Du Champs did actually.
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well done CV.
Not sure Sizing Europe and Long Run got up the hill though (or Hurricane Fly, First Lieutenant and Sir Des Champs!)[;)] |
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Cheers Rease
I had an e/w 4 fold and trebles on First Lieutenant / Sizing Europe / Tranquil Sea and Mossley. So with Tranquil a n/r it became 2 3000/1 trebles and two doubles on Mossley. I put up in running lays starting at 5.0 down to 1.1 and a good few matched. Then had Bobs Worth @ 10/1 for the race anyway. Plus the place side of all the multiples paid out and I got 120/1 on the Sizing FL double. What a bet that turned out to be |
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Well done CV, I always felt that info relating to the PP had to be relevant.
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Thanks Neill. If I hadn't backed him today I'd probably be against the horse for the rest of his career.
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Ya man, I reckon there will scarcely be a race for the rest of his career where I won't back him now
, but in all seriousness, fair play you called it, the fact he was wrong after the Paddy Power had to be relevant to his chance in the King George and latterly, the Gold Cup. There were excuses for his two runs at Chelts prior to today. |
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He won the King George by 12l and there was a plunge that day on him opened 13/2 and he went off 9/2. They knew he wasn't right in the Paddy Power. Same as today, nobody wanted Imperial Commander, all the money was for Long Run. Plus sentiment bets on Kauto.
Skinny odds on Long Run from here on in. Think King George / Gold Cup double is the bet next season. |
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The horses in the RSA will be a threat next season.That was a serious race,and the Irish are going to be real strong in the 3m division for a few years.Bostons Angel was one of the highlights for me this week.Jessies Dream is a bl00dy good horse but BA just dont like getting beat,tough as feck!!
Long Run surprised me for sure,did not expect that at all yesterday after his previous visits to Cheltenham.I got him wrong thinking the ground and the course were against him,and those that argued the case for him improving his jumping was the crucial point got it right. Fair play to all of you that had faith in Long Run. |
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Budd - I was with you on PC in the CH and it looks like a costly second with my antepost doubles and trebles including Long Run and others (including Jessie's dream at
 12s)...I'm not sure about the RSA...TFR not running it's race made it difficult to assess imo...would be great to see some of the younger chasers coming through to challenge LR next season...I would not rule out pndorama improving with give in the ground either.. |
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The horses i rally wanted to win this week all ran well.
Sprinter Sacre Finians Rainbow Big Zeb Peddlers Cross Albertas Run Bostons Angel Denman Did them all to win,should have done some of them e/w!! All good fun though. |
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really*
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Good shout Budd...agreed re e/w...I had that kind of festival too...My big heinz bet included grandouet; long run; PC; Jessies dream...Yesterday I had a 'good' bet on nearby at 94s in the County...3rd and Fair Top at 24s in the 6th...3rd..Ferdy's in the last at 11s...4th...5 from6 in the placepot...witha £12.40 line spoilt by enda boger's getting pipped for third in the foxhunters! Cheltenham isn't half draining...but Long Run helped!
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