Is kauto star to old for gold cup?

As a French bred staying chaser, it's absolutely incredible he's been able to stay at the top of the tree as long as he has.

If he were to win the Gold cup this year it would be a feat of such magnitude I'm not fit to put it into words.

that old nonsense of a french bred losing its form earlier than any other horse doesnt wash with me at all,its absolute bullsh1t!

IMO yes.

stick with him kautoisastar,for me he has this race won,you will see him at his best one last time before age catches up with him next season,i would go as far as saying that he will win this quite easily

No horse had ever regained the Gold Cup, No horse had ever won 4 King Georges in a row, no horse has ever had an official rating of 191...

..until Kauto Star

When a horse does something no horse has ever done before the stats go out the window. He's up against it alright but certainly has a fair chance.

was going easily the best first 8 fences in 2010 Gold Cup.... won easily at Down Royal.... yard not right in delayed King George.

Anyone who's willing to lay at 6/1+ and thinks this horse is over the hill in for a bumpy ride imo

if there is going to be an 11 year old winner this year then i think it is much more likely to be denman. has beaten kauto star twice already at cheltenham and has put up the best rating so far this year in the hennessy.we have seen so little of the main contenders this year it is very difficult to form a strong opinion.

i wouldnt back him because i think he has a mountain to climb to get on terms with the ikes of ic and denners but all the same i wouldnt lay, hes proven twice hes capable.

A Kauto Star on the downgrade is still good enough to win 90% of the Gold Cups run. Nobody has ever seen this horse run up to his best and be beaten, in all his defeats he's either fallen or was not travelling from an early stage. If he was over the hill he'd simply fade at the end of a race not struggle from the start. So defo an looks just an off day for him in the King George.

Defo can't be written off yet.

Imperial commander is 10years old and he hasn won half of what either kauto has won when he was 10 or what denman won when he was 10 so i dont rate him in the same league,denman is also 11so he could be over the hill to,long run would be the main treat in my reckoning

They're all top class horses and nobody would be too surprised if any of them won. But if I had to back one at the current odds it'd be Kauto, if I had to pick who I think will win it'd be Imperial Commander.

Great thing is nobody expects Kauto or Denman to win so it'll be a race to enjoy.

I don't want to talk dwon the Gold Cup but IMO they were great horses, not are.
Either Kauto or Denman may still win it but if they do it'll be because the race, I think, is weaker than previous renewals.
I've said for months that I can see a rag winning it, haven't changed my view

yes !

time for the new brigade imo. love kauto but he is trying to win back the gold cup for a 2nd time when no horse has done this once. we need to be realistic he is just a horse not a machine. he seems to have lost the ability to travel like the rath of god and he cant win Grade 1s forever no horse can. step up pandorama and long run

travel like the wrath of god - what a brilliant line. That's exactly what he did in back in 2009.

I think Dessie was 2 months short of his 11th Birthday when he won.I'm talking true physical age/birthdate as opposed to the annual end of year birthday.Denman and Kauto will both be virtually JUST 11 at the time of Chelters.So both at the "top end" of the ability/age scale before decline creeps in (which tends to genuinely kick regardless by the age of 12)

I think the age thing is relevent where they have been running regularly each season.
Nowadays these horses only run 2 or 3 times a season so they should hold their form for much longer.
Its the statistics that are out of date because training methods have changed.

I was at Kempton and initially I thought, 'that's it for KS - simply not the same horse.'

However, upon reflection I think he has a great chance at the prices. Nicholls was struggling for winners, AP simply does not ride KS v well & the horse doesn't seem to settle (as great a jockey as he is), he smashed teh 2nd ;ast when reall starting to get a 2nd wind (watch the replay as he was flying again to that fence) and when all said & done still came 3rd in a G1.

With Ruby onbaord, Nicholls amongst the winners and ground no worse than G/S he has a good squeak with so many question marks over the leading protaganists. Despite refutals it seems to me IC prep has not been ideal, Long Run will strugle for distance & doesn't seem to like Chelters, Denman has question marks over his well being & the rest don't appear good enough on paper.

Is KS on the downgrade? In all probability yes. But I don't think he would need to be at his vinatge best to win this. If he settles & jumps well early then we could witness the biggest roar up that hill for many a year.

Feck it, I am going to top up on him again!!!

depends on the ground imo, Kauto always did makea horlicks of the last when he was younger, on softer ground its seemed to come earlier in the race


The Whitbread off 174 on faster ground could be better

i honestly think kauto needs a genuine sound surface to be seen at his devestating best,i just dont think he handles soft ground as well as others,when that downpour came an hour before the GC last year i feared the worse for kauto and in the end i was rite,there wont be a dry eye in the house if the old warrior comes storming up that hill in beating his old pal denman in a bobber

When I watched last years GC I was pleased to see how well Denman ran for his 2nd place despite the question marks around him and the fact I had backed him to win. Was quite emotional actually (may also have been the several pints I had that day) but being a bloke it was strange, and almost made up for such a let down of a festival overall. If either Denman or Kauto win it this year I think I will have a serious lump in the throat, not a feeling you get with many other sports tbh

I don't think IC will get it all his own way this year. Sam Thomas is back on Denman and he will be a fresh horse I think he will take it up with over a circuit to run and drag the sh@t out of them. AP was too cautious last year because of Newbury and they were all in a heap when KS fell, they should have been strung out like washing. Sam gets on with him well and they will take some pegging back. I'm still not convinced IC, KS or LR stay this trip when they go a proper gallop.

CVB - He's up against it alright but certainly has a fair chance.


I think that is a fair summary.

After recovering from the disappointment in the King George, I for one was quite pleased when PN said Kauto had bled from the nose.

The stress of running while carry some sort of bug is most likely what caused the nose bleed and nothing to do with age.


I think you have to look beyond the King George and ask yourself was his performance at Down Royal that much different than his performance at Haydock a year earlier.

He came under pressure in both races and while Imperial Commander is a better horse than Sizing Europe the 4 lengths he won by would suggest he may still be as good as ever.


A bigger question is, how much did that mistake at the 8th fence in last years Gold Cup actually take out of him.?

He was almost asleep and absolutely cruising beforehand and Ruby had all the time in the world to let him recover but the second the pace increased Ruby was very ill at ease.

For me either we saw the first signs of the great horse deteriorating or that mistake really knocked the stuffing out of him.

I certainly don't believe this is an out of the ordinary Gold Cup which makes Kauto a live danger even if he isn't as good as he was.

My advise is back your fancy and if it's not Kauto Star at around 7/1 I'd advise at least a saver on him. Unless of course you fancy kicking yourself on the backside after he wins

kauto hasnt travelled for his last 3 races that must concern people. he has fallen at the festival twice that must concern people further. no horse has ever done what he is trying to do in winning it back for a 2nd time that must concern people further still and no 11 year old has won for donkeys years which surely must make u conclude the horse is not the one. just the facts guys sorry. i love the horse and and still will when he doesnt win the 2011 gold cup.

Good thread.

As we have been spoiled by the gold cups of the last few years with very  horses at their peak, i think it makes this years renewal even more fascinating because of the old vs new angle.  it may not be the greatest in terms of ratings, but it may go down as one of the all time classics.

I think i more excited about this race than any other this year - could be a real lump in the throat job. Lets hope so.

If he does get beaten he might get in the Whitbread off a mark of around 170

agree that he may not have been spot on last three races, but we know what happened in the race before that in his 4th King george as the racing post puts so beautifully...

'Jumped superbly, settled midfield, steady progress 9th, went 2nd 12th and soon clear of rest, led on long run to 3 out, swept clear, magnificent'


Lets just hope the old fellas all run their race - cant wait, wil be a cracker

think it speaks volumes that Ruby no hesitation in picking Kauto, presumably could have ridden Denman or Neptune Collonges?

Who took the 12s? :)

One horse that has seemed to have got forgotten about amongst the new brigade i feel is Pandorama! I think if a new boy is to win this, this horse will take quite a lot of beating!

Reported a few weeks ago to have suffered a set back, but just in recent days has since been reported to be back on track, at 16/1 area is huge value in a market however i cannot see changing much between now and race time unless anything comes out.

This is horrible, truly gutting.

Coming round to the idea that on-song or not kauto might not have enough FORM to beat either denman or imperial commander whether he stands up or not.

I've always thought...no, KNOWN, that his form was rock solid but its possibly all based on horses that won't force a pace (with the exception of Nacarat and Neptunes who were never Gold cup winner class anyway)

He was unlucky to make a huge mistake in last years gold cup at the exact moment that pace was injected into the race. I really dont know what it takes out of a horse to batter a fence like that but he really was struggling to keep up afterwards for a good 3/4 lap. Lets be realistic here, we're not talking about struggling to travel well behind pace over 3 and 1/4 mile - this was struggling to KEEP UP with an injection of pace WITHIN the first 2 MILES. To state the obvious, the horse DIDNT KNOW WHAT TRIP HE WAS RUNNING THAT DAY but STILL appeared to be struggling with the pace for the first 2 MILES.

I'm now sitting here wondering when the last time kauto succesfully dealt with a serious injection of pace at all in a race with the exception of the 09 king george.

And now I'm even going back through his entire career (yes, even the 2 mile tingle creaks all those years ago) wondering whether there was ever  a decent enough horse (anywhere near the class of denman or IC) that tested kautos ability to live with a forced pace and still deliver at the business end.

I'm not trying to play down what kauto has acheived as his record is amazing but i think i'm right in saying that he has never beaten Denman or Imperial Commander in a race with a high tempo?

One thing is for sure - if not Denman, someone WILL be forcing a pace at some point in the 2011 gold cup.

So is beating Nacarat around kempton enough form to say kauto could beat denman or IC?

the ground is key - cant win on soft but may have chance on good ground

Brooks I took 12's 10's and a little bit @ 9.8 on here, also have an e/w double with hurricane fly. Will decide on the day how much of my stake to lay back. He'll go off 7/2. I posted a thread on here just after news broke about him being sick at kempton saying 12/1 was a steal.

Pleasegivemeanailedontip, you seem to be suggesting Kauto can't go at pace?

If the Gold Cup was run over 2m, how would you price up Imperial Commander, Denman and Kauto?

pedrobob i was a bit pisssed when i posted so it may have been ott - but ive always laughed at the 'kauto crumbled under denmans pressure in the 08 GC' statement because he's won over 2 miles and travelled so well in the 09 KG and because he's got a turn of foot at the end of his races - i'm just not laughing so much anymore.
I should watch some of his older races again and this answer is probably full of holes but i think if it was an average 2 mile race then the cards are in kautos favour and he outclasses anything but a strong pace over 2 miles - well the 06 champion chase doesn't look very encouraging does it?

Im a big kauto fan,but im just curious to wonder does anyone out there think a fully fit kauto in the king george would hav even beat long run on the day?cus i dont think he would,plus whos to say kauto has even fully recovered,im def startin to vere towards the long run camp cus iv a feeling he could be the next kauto in the makin

nobody could possibly back LR at the current price at cheltenham where he has put in 3 very below par runs,i feel very confident that he wont be in the 3

Looked gone at Kempton but miracles can happen.

miracle? i would hardly call it a miracle if kauto wins the gold cup,i expect it to happen

Yes.

Does anyone realise that KS was staying on(i'd say very strongly) and in the words of the commentator only had "2 lenghts to find" at 2 out.Of course KS ploughed it and it was all over etc.

Now don't get me wrong he didnt travel on the last mile too well,from 7 out he didnt jump great though was still very much "there" coming off the bridle at 4 out yet after being tapped for toe(we all know the change of gears has sadly now gone)he got into 2nd and was closing.

People see what they want to see i guess.All i'm saying is that if he did indeed have a mild infection then this could well have been the difference from a patchy 3rd place and a battling victory.

He'l not have my money on GC day but on good ground it would be folly to dismiss him.

Kauto won't beat Denman, reason because Denman is a better horse, however I expect to see a new kid on the block this year and can see like some others that it could be an outsiders year.

Kautos been entered in the 365, could get a nice racing weight

ZZZZZZZZZZ

Kautos better tnan Denman! HUH no Denman is better, boo hoo kauto is better, theres only one way to sort this one out

FIGHT!!!

Why can't people just accept that Kauto and Denman on their day are very good horses worthy of their wins in Kauto 2 gold cups Denman one gold cup!

And maybe either back both, or just watch?

Kauto Star will win the gold cup, no pressure this year he will just sit in let the others fight early on and then he'll come swinging on the bridle to roars from the crowd.

To be fair Kauto was only 2l down and rallying before hitting the 2nd last in the king george. This after not rebelling out jumping well from the start. Plus he was a little sick.

If he is spot on this time and is travelling and jumping like he can he has every chance of winning. Question marks about him alright but he is certainly good enough to win this for a  third time.

KS is unfortunately on the decline and could only win if others don't perform which is possible.
Denman could still run well and may not have declined too much. I'd love to see either of them win.

Denman has run 8 times since he won the gold cup and has only won once and falling once and unseating once.

Kauto has run 9 times since then and won 6 falling once and unseating once.

Both are the same age yet kauto is in decline and not Denman?

Both atr in some sort of decline.

If KS hadnt clattered 2 out in the KG he may have won by a couple of lenghts in a storming finish.People seem to think he was miles back jumping like a carthorse ffs!

We know KS doesn't have his change of pace anymore,and we also know he can get caught out with jumping when there's a pace injection(as he was in 2008)and has ALWAYS been prone to the odd real howler.This ISNT NEW.

People moan he only won the grade 1 1st time out in ireland! the ground was v soft indeed and he jumped very sweetly and did his job.

If the ground comes up soft(unlikely) it's v possible that KS won't handle the virtually guaranteed pace and his jumping WILL be pressured,this is nothing new,as he was being  written off when he was 8 !!

Denmans form in last years GC was still v good even after a difficult prep(he was eyeball to eyeball with IC until the last) and his Hennessey this year was his FASTEST ever time over the course(even taking ground into consideration)

Ignore this rancid old plough horses at your peril.

These**

What if Kauto Star hasn't gone must be a question everyone has asked themsleves.

I'm a bit confused how you come to the conclusion his instant acceleration has gone.

He hardly got the chance to prove that one way or another in last years Gold Cup, He wouldn't be overly fit in Ireland and the King George accordoing to Pn he was a sick horse.

The top and bottom of it is if he is spot on, on the day nothing will beat him. In he's 95% he still be right in there with a chance and the only two horses who could possibly finish in front of him are Imperial Commander and Pandorama.

I like the rest of you have my doubts so my final 3

1. Pandorama

2. Imperial Commander

3. Kauto Star

Fair point Rondetto but PN actually said Kauto scoped and was found to have had a "minor infection" (there was also a little bleeding) hardly a "sick horse" but very possibly contributed to a 90% ish performance.

I agree with you that should Kauto still be able to hold his best form he could win these without a doubt.

Kauto Star has proved to be a revelation since his first stepped onto a racecourse in my opinion.

I only got into horseracing because of this one horse. I remember watching him win the old roan and then seeing he was running at haydock in the betfair for the first time. I had my first proper bet on him and can remember when "Kato" went effortlessly to the front and the commentator said "The sky is the limit..." well it has been quite a journey.

Sorry to waffle on. The facts:

- Horses probably haven't won at the age of 11 because they have been running a lot more than Kauto has in his entire career, they simply aren't in the same class as him and they haven't been so far ahead of the opposition.

- Tell me a time since Kauto has been stepped up to 3 miles when he has lost a race without having a valid reason for doing so?

- He has won both his Gold Cups when the weather at Cheltenham has been relatively sunny, both times he lost the weather was drizzly and dark skies

- Kauto has a habit of proving his critics wrong, whenever they knock him down, he comes back better than ever

The one thing that does worry me. Paul Nicholls doesn't seem confident. When Kauto is on top form, Nicholls talks about him like a child, as though he cannot be beat and the race is already run. I think he has the same doubts deep down as us on this thread.

I kind of hope that Kauto is retired win or lose come next friday. What a way to retire it would be after regaining the Gold Cup for the second time..

kauto and denman 2 great horses, kauto just kept better health than denman, but 2 great horses, that live side by side.

Honestly, cricnut, you are 100% correct there, i never really caught on with denmania. But he is an amazing horse and it is a shame he has had his problems.

dessie won 2 months short of his 11th birthday and wasn't QUITE as good as KS imo.Having said that were still talking serious high class.

For whatever reason most high class chasers have succumbed to injury or loss of enthusiasm or whatever by the time they get to 11 and have been retired beforehand.Denman has very few miles on the clock relatively and it's difficult to say he's in decline when hes just run his fastest ever Hennessey.

I believe a fresh Denman on GS ground will ensure that any horse who beats him has to go through one hell of a lot of pain.And yes that COULD be KS.