Cheltenham Festival
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01 Mar 11
10:10
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Date Joined:
09 Sep 08
The case for:
After a precocious short career in France winning 8 from 12 (placed in other starts; Kauto Star was 4 from 10), 2009/2010 was a year of transition. He won 2 of his 4 races (placed in other 2;Kauto Star was 1 from 3 before he ran in the Queen Mother and fell - 1st time over cheltenham fences) in England as he struggled to adjust to the English fences, but demonstrated a formidable engine.
After some coaching he put it all together for the KG where he won impressively setting himself up for the Gold Cup.With his jumping sorted out and with cheltenham experience he is now set to take over from the ageing old guard.His profile at a similar stage is arguably better than Kauto Star and The Fellow (the latter was beaten a short head at 6 yo in his first gold cup and repeated the performance a year later).
Case against the opposition
Kauto Star and Denman
Stats - 66 attempts have been made by horses to win the GC having been beaten in the previous year - 64 have failed
At 11yo and coming off a beating in last years GC arguably they are on te decline.
Imperial Commander
Best Mate is the only horse since L'Escargot 40 years ago to retain the GC. Many have tried and failed during this time.
Arguably an interrupted preparation will not have helped, (Jodami had an ideal preparation;was short priced fav when beaten narrowly by The Fellow in 1994)
Others
Pandorama and Kempes - the best of the Irish perhaps still have plenty to prove. Pandorama has the more progressive profile.
Diamond Harry - progrssive form but clearly best when fresh and has to improve again to beat Denman (weights wise from Hennessy) - reportedly not glowing at the moment by his trainer.
Midnight Chase - progressive but taking a big step up in class and plenty to prove. Reminds me of Run and Skip in the Dawn Run year (1986) - he ran an honourable but well beaten 4th ring to make all.
Conclusion
Long Run confirms his promise, having competed his English course education, benefitting from 2 runs at cheltenham in his preparation and wins the GC at 6yo, where The Fellow narrowly failed and KS took a year longer for success
After a precocious short career in France winning 8 from 12 (placed in other starts; Kauto Star was 4 from 10), 2009/2010 was a year of transition. He won 2 of his 4 races (placed in other 2;Kauto Star was 1 from 3 before he ran in the Queen Mother and fell - 1st time over cheltenham fences) in England as he struggled to adjust to the English fences, but demonstrated a formidable engine.
After some coaching he put it all together for the KG where he won impressively setting himself up for the Gold Cup.With his jumping sorted out and with cheltenham experience he is now set to take over from the ageing old guard.His profile at a similar stage is arguably better than Kauto Star and The Fellow (the latter was beaten a short head at 6 yo in his first gold cup and repeated the performance a year later).
Case against the opposition
Kauto Star and Denman
Stats - 66 attempts have been made by horses to win the GC having been beaten in the previous year - 64 have failed
At 11yo and coming off a beating in last years GC arguably they are on te decline.
Imperial Commander
Best Mate is the only horse since L'Escargot 40 years ago to retain the GC. Many have tried and failed during this time.
Arguably an interrupted preparation will not have helped, (Jodami had an ideal preparation;was short priced fav when beaten narrowly by The Fellow in 1994)
Others
Pandorama and Kempes - the best of the Irish perhaps still have plenty to prove. Pandorama has the more progressive profile.
Diamond Harry - progrssive form but clearly best when fresh and has to improve again to beat Denman (weights wise from Hennessy) - reportedly not glowing at the moment by his trainer.
Midnight Chase - progressive but taking a big step up in class and plenty to prove. Reminds me of Run and Skip in the Dawn Run year (1986) - he ran an honourable but well beaten 4th ring to make all.
Conclusion
Long Run confirms his promise, having competed his English course education, benefitting from 2 runs at cheltenham in his preparation and wins the GC at 6yo, where The Fellow narrowly failed and KS took a year longer for success
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im very happy with my 25/1 on this little fella :-)
Well done Monkey. I waited till after the KG when I got him at 7s for that win and 7s again for the GC...fingers crossed.
im on at 7s and put up a strong word for this one on the cheltenham thread ,gold cup preview
GL Foyles...Yes I saw your posting.I thought it would be interesting to compare the last two french bred winners as there has been a lot of negativity about his course form/jumping. My theory is that Autueil fences can be jumped much faster as they are not as solid and KS; The Fellow and LR all had their main experiences there before tackling English fences. I hope LR has learnt and is now ready to unleash it's engine.. [;)]
Needs soft ground; problem is so do many other horses in the Gold Cup this year.
The market seems shaped around a race run on soft ground, that's why I think there's value further down the field.
The market seems shaped around a race run on soft ground, that's why I think there's value further down the field.
I'm not sure it is absolutely necessary - similar cmments were made regarding the fellow and KS as their wins at Autueil were invariably in the wet. The fellow and KS coped with good ground v well. I wouldn't want it on the quick side of good however.
Not inconceivable at all, but not cast iron either IMO. Imperial Commander represents a v strong favourite IMO against a horse with a few question marks against it.
will take a very good horse to beat imperial commander,his record at cheltenham is stunning and having the injury is not really a problem as he is best kept fresh unless it was worse than the trainer said it was.
has laboured round cheltenham in his previous runs,give me a valid reason why this wont continue in the gold cup?
In fairness he looked like the winner of the RSA at the bottom of the hill, and I believe the trainer when he said he'd had a long season and may have been a little OTT. Similarly in November, the yard were not exactly firing 100% and the winner was given a canny ride and (IMO) stole it.
I think Long Run will handle the undulations, my concerns are over his jumping and whether he stays - i'd like to see him jump well twice before deciding that he is a good jumper, and the King George is far less stamina sapping than the Gold Cup - although he won the Kempton race in the manner of a stayer with class, the Gold Cup can be so gruelling it it may not play to his strengths.
I think Long Run will handle the undulations, my concerns are over his jumping and whether he stays - i'd like to see him jump well twice before deciding that he is a good jumper, and the King George is far less stamina sapping than the Gold Cup - although he won the Kempton race in the manner of a stayer with class, the Gold Cup can be so gruelling it it may not play to his strengths.
a bit like one man,thats what i think and have layed him in the place market
Can Long Run really finish third of a 158 in The PP GC, and then be able to run to a mark in the 180s around the same course (admittedly over a longer trip) just two runs later?
It would be interesting to know just how many eleven year olds actually had a chance when they ran in the GC, i suspect very few would have been in the first five in the betting.
Also alot of people seem to be writing Denman off, but while he probably isnt as good as he was, he put up a fantastic performance in this seasons Hennessy & with a better prep this time around i can see him being alot closer to IC than he was last season.
It would be interesting to know just how many eleven year olds actually had a chance when they ran in the GC, i suspect very few would have been in the first five in the betting.
Also alot of people seem to be writing Denman off, but while he probably isnt as good as he was, he put up a fantastic performance in this seasons Hennessy & with a better prep this time around i can see him being alot closer to IC than he was last season.
That he hasn't won twice at Cheltenham is fact. You either go with that or allow for his RSA run coming at the end of a long seasom, in which he also took in the Kingmaker as his prep race, so you couldn't say he was fully tuned to running 3m at the Festival. In the PP he ran his best ever race in the UK (other than the KG) according to the handicapper.
I'm all over him at 33's and above so could be accused of talking through my pocket, however I am not laying off as I genuinely believe the above and that his so-called suspect jumping and amatuer jockey negatives were put to bed in the KG.
I'm all over him at 33's and above so could be accused of talking through my pocket, however I am not laying off as I genuinely believe the above and that his so-called suspect jumping and amatuer jockey negatives were put to bed in the KG.
Agreed Roger. Gazo- you're entitled toyour opinion but Long Run really does not run anything like One Man who was far too buzzy to ever get the full distance in the Gold Cup. Dessie was successful when may said he wouldn't stay in atrocious conditions.
Big Ben - are you not clutching at straws regarding the performance of 11 year olds? In the last 60 years 4 have won and not one since What a Myth in 1969.
regarding Cheltenham -as I hae said if you take a view that he'sbeen learning his craft since coming over here - the KG is when he came out of school and graduated. No he's not a certainty but I'm expressing a view that imo he has the potential to eclipse previous french breds if he can overcome the jumping errors and stay in a true run race. The KG gives me every confidence he can.
Big Ben - are you not clutching at straws regarding the performance of 11 year olds? In the last 60 years 4 have won and not one since What a Myth in 1969.
regarding Cheltenham -as I hae said if you take a view that he'sbeen learning his craft since coming over here - the KG is when he came out of school and graduated. No he's not a certainty but I'm expressing a view that imo he has the potential to eclipse previous french breds if he can overcome the jumping errors and stay in a true run race. The KG gives me every confidence he can.
Fats becomimg my favourite antepost bet of the week. The more I look at the race, the more I like his chances.
Was always a huge fan of this one but did not back it for Gold Cup until the jockey convinced me he could handle the big day, which he duly did at Kempton.
If he's in the same vein of form he was at Kempton then I'd have no worries re ground, trip, course or opposition, my only niggling concern is that Henderson is on record as saying that the KG was plan A this year and he would have had him peaked for that.
The Gold Cup has been plan A for the rest of them, bar maybe Kauto, since the season began so a punt here is investing as much in Nicky Hendersons training expertise having the horse absolutely primed again, as in the ability of the horse itself and in that regard I believe 6/1 still represents decent value
If he's in the same vein of form he was at Kempton then I'd have no worries re ground, trip, course or opposition, my only niggling concern is that Henderson is on record as saying that the KG was plan A this year and he would have had him peaked for that.
The Gold Cup has been plan A for the rest of them, bar maybe Kauto, since the season began so a punt here is investing as much in Nicky Hendersons training expertise having the horse absolutely primed again, as in the ability of the horse itself and in that regard I believe 6/1 still represents decent value
I can't see Imperial Commander losing tbh. Looks an e/w bet to nothing at the very least barring a fall.
long run.........i have to say i was against this horse early in his career over here ,i was looking for negatives rather than positives and after the p.power i thought i was i was vindicated in my doubts in this horse .
but in the week before the king george i decided to look at the positives and came to the conclusion that this horse could, if his jumping was improved, had the engine and profile to be a complete monster a one off .
i dont usually make statements like this ,but the horse won the k.george so impressively he jumped very well exept for a small mistake at the first which was in hindsight a blessing as it made him concentrate more and his jumping was exellent after that and he stayed on well .
he was only just a 6yo when he won the k.george and with normal improvement the sky is the limit imo. i may be wrong but i think he will stay no problem .some may say not many 6yos win the gold cup but i dont think many have tried ,the way the gold cup is likey to be run should play into his hands and his jockey has had plenty of ex pierence in point to points and rules racing so no concerns for me there .
i belive he is rated 182 now so he has not got a lot to find, if anything ,i think he could improve 7-8 lb at least on his k.george win .his 2 cheltenham runs were percieved to be poor runs but to me on hindsight they were very good runs ,his r.s.a 3rd was a cracking effort considering he had been on the go in france and then had to acclimatise and made mistakes then a blunder at a crucial time to be beaten only 7 lenths in 3rd ,how many horses do you see make a blunder at a crucial time in top company at the festival and still run a cracking race, not many imo it usually ends their chance but this horse was still in with a good shout untill the last. imo was a commendable effort .i think after his feltham chase win at kempton people expected this horse to win everything and anything less than an impressive win was considered a dissapointment .
what if his jumping doesnt hold up ? ,i prefer to think what if it does anyway its the same for all the rest they all have to jump . if i am wrong i will pay for it through my pocket but it is a chance i am more than happy to take and i wont be laying any off ,in fact i will keep taking the 6 s at hills till race time .good luck everyone only 14 days and counting
but in the week before the king george i decided to look at the positives and came to the conclusion that this horse could, if his jumping was improved, had the engine and profile to be a complete monster a one off .
i dont usually make statements like this ,but the horse won the k.george so impressively he jumped very well exept for a small mistake at the first which was in hindsight a blessing as it made him concentrate more and his jumping was exellent after that and he stayed on well .
he was only just a 6yo when he won the k.george and with normal improvement the sky is the limit imo. i may be wrong but i think he will stay no problem .some may say not many 6yos win the gold cup but i dont think many have tried ,the way the gold cup is likey to be run should play into his hands and his jockey has had plenty of ex pierence in point to points and rules racing so no concerns for me there .
i belive he is rated 182 now so he has not got a lot to find, if anything ,i think he could improve 7-8 lb at least on his k.george win .his 2 cheltenham runs were percieved to be poor runs but to me on hindsight they were very good runs ,his r.s.a 3rd was a cracking effort considering he had been on the go in france and then had to acclimatise and made mistakes then a blunder at a crucial time to be beaten only 7 lenths in 3rd ,how many horses do you see make a blunder at a crucial time in top company at the festival and still run a cracking race, not many imo it usually ends their chance but this horse was still in with a good shout untill the last. imo was a commendable effort .i think after his feltham chase win at kempton people expected this horse to win everything and anything less than an impressive win was considered a dissapointment .
what if his jumping doesnt hold up ? ,i prefer to think what if it does anyway its the same for all the rest they all have to jump . if i am wrong i will pay for it through my pocket but it is a chance i am more than happy to take and i wont be laying any off ,in fact i will keep taking the 6 s at hills till race time .good luck everyone only 14 days and counting
well said Foyles - agree with every word...I too had a wobble before the KG but thankfully talked myself round. I respect IC tremendously..not least for his track record. His preparation puts me off and he needs to beat stats that are poor for horss trying to retain the GC and the longest time since previous rune (it's 50 years since th horse can beat the period of time IC has been off the course for). Still the one to beat though.
good posts fistfull. agree with what you say, when you consider he was virtually a 5yo when he won the king george, it was some effort ,i agree imperial commander is the main threat and i respect every horse in the race but to me long run could be the real deal .
i'VE GOT £400EW on Tidal Bay at 33/1 n/r no bet.
Hoping they go a fast pace and Tidal starts picking them off up the hill. All the top 4 have question marks so Tidal could be the value.
Hoping they go a fast pace and Tidal starts picking them off up the hill. All the top 4 have question marks so Tidal could be the value.
Tidal Bay for me too, got 80s 70s and 60s, got a nice 25 quid ew double too with another 33/1 and 50/1 tidal.
I cant see him coming out the first 3.
good luck all
I cant see him coming out the first 3.
good luck all
Surely Tidal Bay will be too far behind when he starts to stay on? Having said that, I wouldn't moan at his price. He'll probably go off around 20s.
Tidal Bay to me looks like the National entry type that doesn't go off too fast and stays on late for a place and occasionaly get really close to winning. The fact that he will be outpaced will be no bad thing because they will go off so fast that there will be class horses pulling up half a mile from home.
I've had a small bet on ew and I really fancy it to place over the trip. Knowing how mental the horse is you never know what he could produce on the day.
I've had a small bet on ew and I really fancy it to place over the trip. Knowing how mental the horse is you never know what he could produce on the day.
FROM OLD PADDY POWER THREAD.......Got most right lol.....Top Horse
By: This user is online. splinterboy82
Date Joined: 30 Jul 02 Add contact | Send message
When: 04 Nov 10 13:30 Joined: Date Joined: 30 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 12 | Blogger: splinterboy82's blog
Top weights don't usually win the hennessey either......Denman did twice!
Long Run IS the real deal & will look very well handicapped at the end of this season.
I believe this season to be a 'changing of the guard'......Long Run will dot up in this....win the King George & go off fav for the gold cup imo
By: This user is online. splinterboy82
Date Joined: 30 Jul 02 Add contact | Send message
When: 04 Nov 10 13:30 Joined: Date Joined: 30 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 12 | Blogger: splinterboy82's blog
Top weights don't usually win the hennessey either......Denman did twice!
Long Run IS the real deal & will look very well handicapped at the end of this season.
I believe this season to be a 'changing of the guard'......Long Run will dot up in this....win the King George & go off fav for the gold cup imo
well done fistfull and all who kept the faith ,had a right good day ebj (elastic band jobs) at lads and hills hes a monster long run
he will probably not be as big a price for years to come
Very well done Foyles and other Long Run backers. I'm reading through the 2 long run threads and It's making me grin from ear to ear. 
Well done guys. He's some horse.
Well done guys. He's some horse.
cheers cvbyrne very good champion hurdle thread well done ........
Yes well done Foyles and others who kept faith. Thanks CV B...hope some were converted along the way....One or two nervvy moments...while I'm bias and I did denman when he won...the sight of the three jumping upsides at the last was quite something...
Just a shame my ante post flag with: P Cross 2nd; Noble Prince @ 8s and Long Run @ 7s....running on to ballabriggs at 20s in the national couldn't have quite completed a great potential bet. Not complaining though and CVB no doubt still grinning from H Fly...[:D]
Just a shame my ante post flag with: P Cross 2nd; Noble Prince @ 8s and Long Run @ 7s....running on to ballabriggs at 20s in the national couldn't have quite completed a great potential bet. Not complaining though and CVB no doubt still grinning from H Fly...[:D]
well done to splinterboy for the p.p.thread and some exellent input ....
Yes - well done splinterboy....I just read your original threa ...and apologies for appearing to plagiarise your 'changing the guard' expression from November....purely coincidental....More importantly well done in keeping faith thoughout...hope you profited from it..
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