Gold Cup: Long Run...The Changing of the Guard

Well done Monkey. I waited till after the KG when I got him at 7s for that win and 7s again for the GC...fingers crossed.

GL Foyles...Yes I saw your posting.I thought it would be interesting to compare the last two french bred winners as there has been a lot of negativity about his course form/jumping. My theory is that Autueil fences can be jumped much faster as they are not as solid and KS; The Fellow and LR all had their main experiences there before tackling English fences. I hope LR has learnt and is now ready to unleash it's engine.. [;)]

I'm not sure it is absolutely necessary - similar cmments were made regarding the fellow and KS as their wins at Autueil were invariably in the wet. The fellow and KS coped with good ground v well. I wouldn't want it on the quick side of good however.

I don't Gazo, but clearly you do..

will take a very good horse to beat imperial commander,his record at cheltenham is stunning and having the injury is not really a problem as he is best kept fresh unless it was worse than the trainer said it was.

In fairness he looked like the winner of the RSA at the bottom of the hill, and I believe the trainer when he said he'd had a long season and may have been a little OTT. Similarly in November, the yard were not exactly firing 100% and the winner was given a canny ride and (IMO) stole it.

I think Long Run will handle the undulations, my concerns are over his jumping and whether he stays - i'd like to see him jump well twice before deciding that he is a good jumper, and the King George is far less stamina sapping than the Gold Cup - although he won the Kempton race in the manner of a stayer with class, the Gold Cup can be so gruelling it it may not play to his strengths.

Can Long Run really finish third of a 158 in The PP GC, and then be able to run to a mark in the 180s around the same course (admittedly over a longer trip) just two runs later?

It would be interesting to know just how many eleven year olds actually had a chance when they ran in the GC, i suspect very few would have been in the first five in the betting.

Also alot of people seem to be writing Denman off, but while he probably isnt as good as he was, he put up a fantastic performance in this seasons Hennessy & with a better prep this time around i can see him being alot closer to IC than he was last season.

Agreed Roger. Gazo- you're entitled toyour opinion but Long Run really does not run anything like One Man who was far too buzzy to ever get the full distance in the Gold Cup. Dessie was successful when may said he wouldn't stay in atrocious conditions.
Big Ben - are you not clutching at straws regarding the performance of 11 year olds? In the last 60 years 4 have won and not one since What a Myth in 1969.

regarding Cheltenham -as I hae said if you take a view that he'sbeen learning his craft since coming over here - the KG is when he came out of school and graduated. No he's not a certainty but I'm expressing a view that imo he has the potential to eclipse previous french breds if he can overcome the jumping errors and stay in a true run race. The KG gives me every confidence he can.

Was always a huge fan of this one but did not back it for Gold Cup until the jockey convinced me he could handle the big day, which he duly did at Kempton.
If he's in the same vein of form he was at Kempton then I'd have no worries re ground, trip, course or opposition, my only niggling concern is that Henderson is on record as saying that the KG was plan A this year and he would have had him peaked for that.
The Gold Cup has been plan A for the rest of them, bar maybe Kauto, since the season began so a punt here is investing as much in Nicky Hendersons training expertise having the horse absolutely primed again, as in the ability of the horse itself and in that regard I believe 6/1 still represents decent value

long run.........i have to say i was against this horse early in his career over here ,i was looking for negatives rather than positives and after the p.power i thought i was i was vindicated in my doubts in this horse .

but in the week before the king george i decided to look at the positives and came to the conclusion that this horse could, if his jumping was improved, had the engine  and profile to be a complete monster a one off .
i dont usually make statements like this ,but the horse won the k.george so impressively he jumped very well exept for a small mistake at the first which was in hindsight a blessing as it made him  concentrate more and his jumping was exellent after that and he stayed on well .

he was only just a 6yo when he won the k.george and with normal improvement the sky is the limit imo. i may be wrong but i think he will stay no problem .some may say not many 6yos win the gold cup but i dont think many have tried ,the way the gold cup is likey to be run should play into his hands and his jockey has had plenty of ex pierence in point to points and rules racing so no concerns for me there .

i belive he is rated 182 now so he has not got a lot to find, if anything ,i think he could improve 7-8 lb  at least on his k.george win .his 2 cheltenham runs were percieved to be poor runs but to me on hindsight they were very good runs ,his r.s.a 3rd was a cracking effort considering he had been on the go in france and then had to acclimatise and made mistakes then a blunder at a crucial time to be beaten only 7 lenths in 3rd ,how many horses do you see make a blunder at a crucial time in top company at the festival and still run a cracking race, not many imo it usually ends their chance but this horse was still in with a good shout untill the last. imo was a commendable effort .i think after his feltham chase win at kempton people expected this horse to win everything and anything less than an impressive win was considered a dissapointment .

what if his jumping doesnt hold up ? ,i prefer to think what if it does anyway its the same for all the rest they all have to jump . if i am wrong i will pay for it through my pocket but it is a chance i am more than happy to take and i wont be laying any off ,in fact i will keep taking the 6 s at hills till race time .good luck everyone only 14 days and counting

good posts fistfull. agree with what you say, when you consider he was virtually a 5yo when he won the king george, it was some effort ,i agree imperial commander is the main threat and i respect every horse in the race   but to me long run could be the real deal .

Tidal Bay for me too, got 80s 70s and 60s, got a nice 25 quid ew double too with another 33/1 and 50/1 tidal.

I cant see him coming out the first 3.

good luck all

tidal bay
what you's been smoking lads?

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GET IN THERE LONG RUN YOU BEAUTY

well done fistfull and all who kept the faith ,had a right good day ebj (elastic band jobs) at lads and hills hes a monster long run

Very well done Foyles and other Long Run backers. I'm reading through the 2 long run threads and It's making me grin from ear to ear.

Well done guys. He's some horse.

cheers cvbyrne very good champion hurdle thread well done ........

well done to splinterboy for the p.p.thread  and some exellent input ....