think hells bay has good e/w chance in that race m8 but i think king has chosen the right race for medermit gl an cant wait im like a kid waiting for xmas day[smiley:crazy]

ghizao will win...it looks like medermit makes too much of an effort at his fences there are obstacles to him whereas ghizao looks to have springs and relishs them...will be a really tactical race though !

Goretski, I suggest you look up other quotes in that book about some of the other contenders too! They change their opiniions all the time.

The arkle has been the focus of my antepost bets for the last 2 years and luckily i picked 4 paddy and sizing my two best memories of chelt.

This yr i believe Ghizao has all the credentials of an arkle winner bar his hurdles form. He's such a fluent, accurate jumper and gets into a rhythm early putting any horse with suspect jumping under pressure. In a race where there is no margin for error i believe he will have them all in trouble early in the race. I 've stated previously Kilmurry was a hell of a horse and was no forelorn hope had he ran.

I don't think this horse has captured the public's imagination (nor even his owners) because a) too many Nicholls arkle fav's have fallen on their sword b) his hurdle ratings (he has improved dramatically for wind op and the change to larger obsticles).... i'll be putting on the max **** bet because for me whatever beats him wins it

In response to my post on 20:31, I've found the quote from Barry Geraghty from 16th October 10

"Finian’s Rainbow is definitely one to keep on the right side in novice chases this season — he absolutely devours fences. This is one that I am very much looking forward to and was very good again this week."

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=512021&lid=at+the+races+blogs&raceid=&title=Barry+Geraghty+(16+Oct)&ref=At+The+Races+Blogs&nav=at+the+races+blogs&sub=&day=Wed

It's quite interesting reading the early blogs where he talks about horses he likes that have schooled well.  He talks about Sprinter Sacre, Bob's Worth, Chablais, A Media Luz, Minella Class.  Could have got some juicy prices back in October!!

brigust1 Joined: 07 Dec 01
Replies: 1753 02 Mar 11 18:45   
Clutching at straws Evra?

When My Way de Solzen won the 2 miler and favourite, Twist Magic, fell early on. He went on to beat Fair Along. How weak was that race after the faller?
Tidal Bay bt Kruguyrova by 13 legths, terrible race. Favourite Noland rated 135 hurdler, wasn't right and finished 3rd.
Sizing Europe was/is a 2 miler and he bt Somersby who is also 2 miler.

More importantly how many 2 milers and top class hurdlers didn't win the Arkle?


Ok, let's get a few things straight here. When My Way De Solzen won the Arkle, Twist Magic did not fall early on, he fell at the 2nd last. And he was far from being the favourite. I'm pretty sure Fair Along was favourite for that race. Sounds to me like you didn't even see it as you are wrong about the prices and the events that occured in that race.
And to get your point across that 2 milers always win the race you use the result of one race (last years) as an example having just posted two results above where horses who stay further won. The fact is that in recent times most horses that win the Arkle stay 2.5 miles.

Medermit is absolutely in the right race....i think it's a bit lazy to simply say, oh well he had problems at 2 miles and when he goes back they will show up again....if this horses jumping had not improved we would see it over whatever distance he was running over, including in its last 2 races......king stepped him up in trip which has helped him in his education of jumping and i see no reason why once back at 2 he won't be able to jump just like the last twice.

Remember, we're not talking about a horse who is tapped for toe over 2 miles, so he makes mistakes because he's having to go quicker than he likes, he travels easily over a 2 mile trip so his jumping won't suffer in that department, personally i think king has played a blinder in saying right...he's novicey lets teach him by stepping him up....he's ironed that out and he's got it right.

As for running in the longer race, apart from it being an insult to the class of the horse...i think he doesn't get 2 and a half well enough....he was out stayed by hells bay and was nearly caught by captain chris who he was travelling all over 1 fence earlier.

I believe he is the perfect horse for the arkle....he can travel easily through his races....he "is" a good jumper....stays further than the 2 miles.....won't mind drying ground.....is from a stable that are well versed in winning this race.....and is all class.

Yaboya I was responding to Evra who brought up My Way De Solzen. So read the whole thread ffs.
And were do you get this Ok, let's get a few things straight here.rubbish. You highlighted one point.
I was wrong about when Twist Magic fell but he was going like a winner and was a 2 miler, not a stayer, in that very race.
It was Tatiano I was thinking about who was favourite and fell early. I'm so sorry.
Do you understand though? I was responding to an earlier poster. It wasn't my point. I never selected these races someone else did.

Is that enough points to get straight??

If you look through recent Arkles very few good, high rated 2 mile hurdlers actually run in the race. Sizing Europe and Moscow Flyer were two.

I personally don't think there is a given set of standards required to win an Arkle. It depends on strength in depth. After all One Man won the Hennessy and then the 2 mile Champion Chase.

FR is a very similar horse to another of Nickys, Petit Robin, low head carriage, big engine, front runs. If NH thinks a lot of him he must be a similar standard- only his jumping at a frantic pace is a doubt.

Saying that Ghizao has the big set of shoulders and jumps well like many Arkle horses.

Good morning Budd.

I'm not sure about Ghizao. PN had a clutch of winners including Sam Winner, Silviano Conti and Ghizao who looked outstanding and likely Cheltenham winners early season but the nes that have run the wheels ame off. If SC hadn't run after Ascot and was put away for Cheltenham he would have been considered very dangerous and the same about Sam Winner. I'm not saing they can't win but they looked almost unbeatable at the time. Not now.

Bad news for Mr Stewart. It's not a bad Arkle? There's no such thing. Sure you get some real moderate animal's running in them but the first 2 or 3 home usually end up decent chasers.


Right now they are all just novices and some will have a bright future ahead of them. If Ghizao did win and Finian's Rainbow, Starluck, Realt Dhub or Medermit were to finish 2nd I 'd say that would be seen as a top class performance  by novice standards in anyone's book.

Sea I'm not writing off Sam Winner, not at all. But I think you will find he was looking almost banker material a while ago, not so now.
Had he not run last time he would be a good deal shorter. My point is Ghizao hasn't run lately whereas SW and SC have and their chances reduced.

You may be right Sin. He may also be wanting to take a certain sized group for certain owners who want to see their horses run at Cheltenham.
In his countdown to Cheltenham preview he spoke highly of Ghizao then finished with 'he's probably our best shot on the first day'.
Probably? When you consider the only other fancied runner he has is Al Ferof and he isn't even definite for the Supreme.

I know Sin. But when you get down to the nitty gritty you look for anything to sway you one way or another.
Of the top three both A King and N Henderson thought their two were potentially top class chasers. PN didn't. And he's not exactly backward in coming forward, is he?
He was the worst hurdler of the three and looks like he requires soft ground at least. His form lines are questionable because he beat the same horse in both wins on ground that horse doesn't want.
He has no other form to put him clearly in the mix.
Andy Stewart said he thought he might not be good enough and that backs up where we are at the moment.
I'm not saying he can't win, no-one knows for sure, but I would put him last of the 3 favourites.

no worries mate,cheers.